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At least 271 records · Page 15

AsterAnts: A Concept for Large-Scale Meteoroid Return and Processing using the International Space Station

AsterAnts is a concept calling for a fleet of solar sail powered spacecraft to retrieve large numbers of small (1/2-1 meter diameter) Near Earth Objects (NEOs) for orbital processing. AsterAnts could use the International Space Station (ISS) for NEO processing, solar sail construction, and to test NEO capture hardware. Solar sails constructed on orbit are expected to have substantially better performance than their ground built counterparts [Wright 1992]. Furthermore, solar sails may be used to hold geosynchronous communication satellites out-of-plane [Forward 1981] increasing the total number of slots by at least a factor of three. potentially generating $2 billion worth of orbital real estate over North America alone. NEOs are believed to contain large quantities of water, carbon, other life-support materials and metals. Thus. with proper processing, NEO materials could in principle be used to resupply the ISS, produce rocket propellant, manufacture tools, and build additional ISS working space. Unlike proposals requiring massive facilities, such as lunar bases, before returning any extraterrestrial larger than a typical inter-planetary mission. Furthermore, AsterAnts could be scaled up to deliver large amounts of material by building many copies of the same spacecraft, thereby achieving manufacturing economies of scale. Because AsterAnts would capture NEOs whole, NEO composition details, which are generally poorly characterized, are relatively unimportant and no complex extraction equipment is necessary. In combination with a materials processing facility at the ISS, AsterAnts might inaugurate an era of large-scale orbital construction using extraterrestrial materials.

Globus, Al↗

Novel Multiplexing Technique for Detector and Mixer Arrays

Future submillimeter and far-infrared space telescopes will require large-format (many 1000's of elements) imaging detector arrays to perform state-of-the-art astronomical observations. A crucial issue related to a focal plane array is a readout scheme which is compatible with large numbers of cryogenically-cooled (typically < 1 K) detectors elements. When the number of elements becomes of the order of thousands, the physical layout for individual readout amplifiers becomes nearly impossible to realize for practical systems. Another important concern is the large number of wires leading to a 0.1-0.3 K platform. In the case of superconducting transition edge sensors (TES), a scheme for time-division multiplexing of SQUID read-out amplifiers has been recently demonstrated. In this scheme the number of SQUIDs is equal to the number (N) of the detectors, but only one SQUID is turned on at a time. The SQUIDs are connected in series in each column of the array, so the number of wires leading to the amplifiers can be reduced, but it is still of the order of N. Another approach uses a frequency domain multiplexing scheme of the bolometer array. The bolometers are biased with ac currents whose frequencies are individual for each element and are much higher than the bolometer bandwidth. The output signals are connected in series in a summing loop which is coupled to a single SQUID amplifier. The total number of channels depends on the ratio between the SQUID bandwidth and the bolometer bandwidth and can be at least 100 according to the authors. An important concern about this technique is a contribution of the out-of-band Johnson noise which multiplies by factor N(exp 1/2) for each frequency channel. We propose a novel solution for large format arrays based on the Hadamard transform coding technique which requires only one amplifier to read out the entire array of potentially many 1000's of elements and uses approximately 10 wires between the cold stage and room temperature electronics. This can significantly reduce the complexity of the readout circuits.

Karasik, Boris S.↗

Probing the Cosmic Gamma-Ray Burst Rate with Trigger Simulations of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) rate is essential for revealing the connection between GRBs, supernovae and stellar evolution. Additionally, the GRB rate at high redshift provides a strong probe of star formation history in the early universe. While hundreds of GRBs are observed by Swift, it remains difficult to determine the intrinsic GRB rate due to the complex trigger algorithm of Swift. Current studies of the GRB rate usually approximate the Swift trigger algorithm by a single detection threshold. However, unlike the previously own GRB instruments, Swift has over 500 trigger criteria based on photon count rate and additional image threshold for localization. To investigate possible systematic biases and explore the intrinsic GRB properties, we develop a program that is capable of simulating all the rate trigger criteria and mimicking the image threshold. Our simulations show that adopting the complex trigger algorithm of Swift increases the detection rate of dim bursts. As a result, our simulations suggest bursts need to be dimmer than previously expected to avoid over-producing the number of detections and to match with Swift observations. Moreover, our results indicate that these dim bursts are more likely to be high redshift events than low-luminosity GRBs. This would imply an even higher cosmic GRB rate at large redshifts than previous expectations based on star-formation rate measurements, unless other factors, such as the luminosity evolution, are taken into account. The GRB rate from our best result gives a total number of 4568 +825 -1429 GRBs per year that are beamed toward us in the whole universe.

simulations↗

Assessing Secondary Ice Production in Continental Clouds Based on AMF Synergistic Remote Sensing Observations

Ice crystals play an important role in radiation and precipitation formation. However, the prediction of ice number concentration has proven to be problematic, because the predicted concentration of ice nucleating particles is often smaller than the observed by several orders of magnitude. This difference between the observed and the predicted number concentration has been explained by so-called secondary ice production (SIP), which includes hypothesized mechanisms like rime splintering, shattering of large frozen drops, and ice-ice collision breakup. To better observe SIP and understand its frequency, production rate, and impact on cloud evolution, we developed a new method for retrieving microphysical properties of concurrent pristine ice and snow aggregates from X-band polarimetric radar observations. Compared to aircraft cloud probe measurements, our retrieved total number concentration and ice water content are overestimated by 98% and 44%, respectively, which outperforms other empirical relationships. The capability of quantifying pristine ice number concentration, which is the most essential observable in SIP studies, opens a new opportunity to build a long-term record of SIP from surface-based radar measurements. We have also conducted simulations using a cloud-resolving model to evaluate the representativeness of the parameterizations of three SIP mechanisms and for studying the impact of SIP on a frontal system. We found a surprisingly good agreement between the observed and retrieved pristine ice number concentrations. The good performance is attributed to the rime splintering process in the temperature zone between–3° and –8°C, and to the ice-ice collision breakup process at higher altitudes. The impact of the shattering of large frozen drops appears minimal. Apart from the enhancement of ice number concentration and increased horizontal coverage of pristine ice, the addition of three SIP processes does not change cloud evolutions dramatically in our simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nonlinear transient analysis by energy minimization: A theoretical basis for the ACTION computer code

The formulation basis for establishing the static or dynamic equilibrium configurations of finite element models of structures which may behave in the nonlinear range are provided. With both geometric and time independent material nonlinearities included, the development is restricted to simple one and two dimensional finite elements which are regarded as being the basic elements for modeling full aircraft-like structures under crash conditions. Representations of a rigid link and an impenetrable contact plane are added to the deformation model so that any number of nodes of the finite element model may be connected by a rigid link or may contact the plane. Equilibrium configurations are derived as the stationary conditions of a potential function of the generalized nodal variables of the model. Minimization of the nonlinear potential function is achieved by using the best current variable metric update formula for use in unconstrained minimization. Powell's conjugate gradient algorithm, which offers very low storage requirements at some slight increase in the total number of calculations, is the other alternative algorithm to be used for extremely large scale problems.

Kamat, M. P.↗

On the relationship between sunspots number and the flare index

During the years 1976-1991, sunspot number and the Kleczek flare index have displayed a strong linear correlation (r = 0.94), one that can be described by the equation y = -0.15 + 0.10 x, where x denotes annual sunspot number. While true, the temporal behaviors of the two parameters have differed, with sunspot number peaking first in 1979 and the flare index peaking much later in 1982 during cycle 21 and with more contemporaneous behavior in cycle 22 (both peaking in 1989, with a secondary peak in 1991). The difference appears to be directly attributable to the way in which the Kleczek flare index has been defined; namely, the annual flare index is the sum of the product of each flare's intensity (importance) times its duration (in minutes) divided by the total number of flares during the year. Because the number of 'major' flares (those of importance greater than or equal to 2) and flares of very long duration (duration greater than or equal to 100 min) both peaked after sunspot maximum (1982/81, respectively) in cycle 21, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did). Likewise, because the number of major flares and flares of very long duration peaked simultaneously with sunspot number (1989) in cycle 22, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

The 4 Ms CHANDRA Deep Field-South Number Counts Apportioned by Source Class: Pervasive Active Galactic Nuclei and the Ascent of Normal Galaxies

We present 0.5-2 keV, 2-8 keV, 4-8 keV, and 0.5-8 keV (hereafter soft, hard, ultra-hard, and full bands, respectively) cumulative and differential number-count (log N-log S ) measurements for the recently completed approx. equal to 4 Ms Chandra Deep Field-South (CDF-S) survey, the deepest X-ray survey to date. We implement a new Bayesian approach, which allows reliable calculation of number counts down to flux limits that are factors of approx. equal to 1.9-4.3 times fainter than the previously deepest number-count investigations. In the soft band (SB), the most sensitive bandpass in our analysis, the approx. equal to 4 Ms CDF-S reaches a maximum source density of approx. equal to 27,800 deg(sup -2). By virtue of the exquisite X-ray and multiwavelength data available in the CDF-S, we are able to measure the number counts from a variety of source populations (active galactic nuclei (AGNs), normal galaxies, and Galactic stars) and subpopulations (as a function of redshift, AGN absorption, luminosity, and galaxy morphology) and test models that describe their evolution. We find that AGNs still dominate the X-ray number counts down to the faintest flux levels for all bands and reach a limiting SB source density of approx. equal to 14,900 deg(sup -2), the highest reliable AGN source density measured at any wavelength. We find that the normal-galaxy counts rise rapidly near the flux limits and, at the limiting SB flux, reach source densities of approx. equal to 12,700 deg(sup -2) and make up 46% plus or minus 5% of the total number counts. The rapid rise of the galaxy counts toward faint fluxes, as well as significant normal-galaxy contributions to the overall number counts, indicates that normal galaxies will overtake AGNs just below the approx. equal to 4 Ms SB flux limit and will provide a numerically significant new X-ray source population in future surveys that reach below the approx. equal to 4 Ms sensitivity limit. We show that a future approx. equal to 10 Ms CDF-S would allow for a significant increase in X-ray-detected sources, with many of the new sources being cosmologically distant (z greater than or approx. equal to 0.6) normal galaxies.

Field-South↗

HarDWR - Harmonized Water Rights Records

A dataset within the Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR). For a detailed description of the database, please see the meta-record v2.0. Changelog v2.0 - Recalculated based on data sourced from WestDAAT - Changed using a Site ID column to identify unique records to using aa combination of Site ID and Allocation ID - Removed the Water Management Area (WMA) column from the harmonized records. The replacement is a separate file which stores the relationship between allocations and WMAs. This allows for allocations to contribute to water right amounts to multiple WMAs during the subsequent cumulative process. - Added a column describing a water rights legal status - Added "Unspecified" was a water source category - Added an acre-foot (AF) column - Added a column for the classification of the right's owner v1.02 - Added a .RData file to the dataset as a convenience for anyone exploring our code. This is an internal file, and the one referenced in analysis scripts as the data objects are already in R data objects. v1.01 - Updated the names of each file with an ID number less than 3 digits to include leading 0s v1.0 - Initial public release Description Here we present an updated database of Western U.S. water right records. This database provides consistent unique identifiers for each water right record, and a consistent categorization scheme that puts each water right record into one of seven broad use categories. These data were instrumental in conducting a study of the multi-sector dynamics of inter-sectoral water allocation changes though water markets (Grogan et al., *in review*). Specifically, the data were formatted for use as input to a process-based hydrologic model, Water Balance Model (WBM), with a water rights module (Grogan et al., *in review*). While this specific study motivated the development of the database presented here, water management in the U.S. West is a rich area of study (e.g., Anderson and Woosly, 2005; Tidwell, 2014; Null and Prudencio, 2016; Carney et al., 2021) so releasing this database publicly with documentation and usage notes will enable other researchers to do further work on water management in the U.S. West. We produced the water rights database presented here in four main steps: (1) data collection, (2) data quality control, (3) data harmonization, and (4) generation of cumulative water rights curves. Each of steps (1)-(3) had to be completed in order to produce (4), the final product that was used in the modeling exercise in Grogan et al. (*in review*). All data in each step is associated with a spatial unit called a Water Management Area (WMA), which is the unit of water right administration utilized by the state in which the right came from. Steps (2) and (3) required use to make assumptions and interpretation, and to remove records from the raw data collection. We describe each of these assumptions and interpretations below so that other researchers can choose to implement alternative assumptions an interpretation as fits their research aims. Motivation for Changing Data Sources The most significant change has been a switch from collecting the raw water rights directly from each state to using the water rights records presented in WestDAAT, a product of the Water Data Exchange (WaDE) Program under the Western States Water Council (WSWC). One of the main reasons for this is that each state of interest is a member of the WSWC, meaning that WaDE is partially funded by these states, as well as many universities. As WestDAAT is also a database with consistent categorization, it has allowed us to spend less time on data collection and quality control and more time on answering research questions. This has included records from water right sources we had previously not known about when creating v1.0 of this database. The only major downside to utilizing the WestDAAT records as our raw data is that further updates are tied to when WestDAAT is updated, as some states update their public water right records daily. However, as our focus is on cumulative water amounts at the regional scale, it is unlikely most records updates would have a significant effect on our results. The structure of WestDAAT led to several important changes to how HarWR is formatted. The most significant change is that WaDE has calculated a field known as `SiteUUID`, which is a unique identifier for the Point of Diversion (POD), or where the water is drawn from. This separate from `AllocationNativeID`, which is the identifier for the allocation of water, or the amount of water associated with the water right. It should be noted that it is possible for a single site to have multiple allocations associated with it and for an allocation to be able to be extracted from multiple sites. The site-allocation structure has allowed us to adapt a more consistent, and hopefully more realistic, approach in organizing the water right records than we had with HarDWR v1.0. This was incredibly helpful as the raw data from many states had multiple water uses within a single field within a single row of their raw data, and it was not always clear if the first water use was the most important, or simply first alphabetically. WestDAAT has already addressed this data quality issue. Furthermore, with v1.0, when there were multiple records with the same water right ID, we selected the largest volume or flow amount and disregarded the rest. As WestDAAT was already a common structure for disparate data formats, we were better able to identify sites with multiple allocations and, perhaps more importantly, allocations with multiple sites. This is particularly helpful when an allocation has sites which cross WMA boundaries, instead of just assigning the full water amount to a single WMA we are now able to divide the amount of water between the number of relevant WMAs. As it is now possible to identify allocations with water used in multiple WMAs, it is no longer practical to store this information within a single column. Instead the stAllocationToWMATab.csv file was created, which is an allocation by WMA matrix containing the percent Place of Use area overlap with each WMA. We then use this percentage to divide the allocation's flow amount between the given WMAs during the cumulation process to hopefully provide more realistic totals of water use in each area. However, not every state provides areas of water use, so like HarDWR v1.0, a hierarchical decision tree was used to assign each allocation to a WMA. First, if a WMA could be identified based on the allocation ID, then that WMA was used; typically, when available, this applied to the entire state and no further steps were needed. Second was the spatial analysis of Place of Use to WMAs. Third was a spatial analysis of the POD locations to WMAs, with the assumption that allocation's POD is within the WMA it should belong to; if an allocation still had multiple WMAs based on its POD locations, then the allocation's flow amount would be divided equally between all WMAs. The fourth, and final, process was to include water allocations which spatially fell outside of the state WMA boundaries. This could be due to several reasons, such as coordinate errors / imprecision in the POD location, imprecision in the WMA boundaries, or rights attached with features, such as a reservoir, which crosses state boundaries. To include these records, we decided for any POD which was within one kilometer of the state's edge would be assigned to the nearest WMA. Other Changes WestDAAT has Allowed In addition to a more nuanced and consistent method of assigning water right's data to WMAs, there are other benefits gained from using the WestDAAT dataset. Among those is a consistent categorization of a water right's legal status. In HarDWR v1.0, legal status was effectively ignored, which led to many valid concerns about the quality of the database related to the amounts of water the rights allowed to be claimed. The main issue was that rights with legal status' such as "application withdrawn", "non-active", or "cancelled" were included within HarDWR v1.0. These, and other water rights status' which were deemed to not be in use have been removed from this version of the database. Another major change has been the addition of the "unspecified water source category. This is water that can come from either surface water or groundwater, or the source of which is unknown. The addition of this source category brings the total number of categories to three. Due to reviewer feedback, we decided to add the acre-foot (AF) column so that the data may be more applicable to a wider audience. We added the ownerClassification column so that the data may be more applicable to a wider audience. File Descriptions The dataset is a series of various files organized by state sub-directories. In addition, each file begins with the state's name, in case the file is separate from its sub-directory for some reason. After the state name is the text which describes the contents of the file. Here is each file described in detail. Note that st is a placeholder for the state's name. stFullRecords_HarmonizedRights.csv: A file of the complete water records for each state. The column headers for each of this type of file are: state - The name of the state to which the allocations belong to. FIPS - The two digit numeric state ID code. siteID - The site location ID for POD locations. A site may have multiple allocations, which are the actual amount of water which can be drawn. In a simplified hypothetical, a farm stead may have an allocation for "irrigation" and an allocation for "domestic" water use, but the water is drawn from the same pumping equipment. It should be noted that many of the site ID appear to have been added by WaDE, and therefore may not be recognized by a given state's water rights database. allocationID - The allocation ID for the water right. For most states this is the water right ID, and what is recommended to use should a right be looked up on a given state's water rights database. The water amounts associated with these IDs tend to be finer scaled than those associated with siteID. It should be noted that some allocations may be extracted from multiple sites, particularly for larger Places of Use. ownerClassification - A classification of the types of owners for water rights. The most common is `Private` which incorporates a wide range of entities. Several classifications would be grouped into a government category, most of which are for the U.S. Federal Government. These allocations could be listed as "Federal", "United States of America", or as the names of any number of federal agencies. The last major grouping of entities is for "Native American"s. priorityDate - The date we use as the water right priority date for our modeling analysis. This is the legal priority date when it is available. However, for some rights, specifically from California and New Mexico, we used a pseudo priority date (e.g. well completion date or start of well drilling date) when a legal priority date was not available. The most questionable dates come from New Mexico, where the only date associated with certain water right records was the date the allocation was recorded in the database. As the allocation record creation tended to be within a few months of the filing of the application of the water right, from manually double checking the water rights, and our analysis focuses on aggregating water rights on the timescale of years, we determined it was acceptable to use such dates to include as many records as possible. primaryBeneficialUse - From the numerous state water use categories, WaDE categorized them into 21 categories WestDAAT. This column is the original WaDE category for the primary water use at the PoD site. allocationBeneficialUse - From the numerous state water use categories, WaDE categorized them into 21 categories for WestDAAT. This column is the original WaDE category

Economics↗

Development of Position-Sensitive Magnetic Calorimeters for X-Ray Astronomy

Metallic magnetic calorimeters (MMC) are one of the most promising devices to provide very high energy resolution needed for future astronomical x-ray spectroscopy. MMC detectors can be built to large detector arrays having thousands of pixels. Position-sensitive magnetic (PoSM) microcalorimeters consist of multiple absorbers thermally coupled to one magnetic micro calorimeter. Each absorber element has a different thermal coupling to the MMC, resulting in a distribution of different pulse shapes and enabling position discrimination between the absorber elements. PoSMs therefore achieve the large focal plane area with fewer number of readout channels without compromising spatial sampling. Excellent performance of PoSMs was achieved by optimizing the designs of key parameters such as the thermal conductance among the absorbers, magnetic sensor, and heat sink, as well as the absorber heat capacities. Micro fab ri - cation techniques were developed to construct four-absorber PoSMs, in which each absorber consists of a two-layer composite of bismuth and gold. The energy resolution (FWHM full width at half maximum) was measured to be better than 5 eV at 6 keV x-rays for all four absorbers. Position determination was demonstrated with pulse-shape discrimination, as well as with pulse rise time. X-ray microcalorimeters are usually designed to thermalize as quickly as possible to avoid degradation in energy resolution from position dependence to the pulse shapes. Each pixel consists of an absorber and a temperature sensor, both decoupled from the cold bath through a weak thermal link. Each pixel requires a separate readout channel; for instance, with a SQUID (superconducting quantum interference device). For future astronomy missions where thousands to millions of resolution elements are required, having an individual SQUID readout channel for each pixel becomes difficult. One route to attaining these goals is a position-sensitive detector in which a large continuous or pixilated array of x-ray absorbers shares fewer numbers of temperature sensors. A means of discriminating the signals from different absorber positions, however, needs to be built into the device for each sensor. The design concept for the device is such that the shape of the temperature pulse with time depends on the location of the absorber. This inherent position sensitivity of the signal is then analyzed to determine the location of the event precisely, effectively yielding one device with many sub-pixels. With such devices, the total number of electronic channels required to read out a given number of pixels is significantly reduced. PoSMs were developed that consist of four discrete absorbers connected to a single magnetic sensor. The design concept can be extended to more than four absorbers per sensor. The thermal conductance between the sensor and each absorber is different by design and consequently, the pulse shapes are different depending upon which absorber the xrays are received, allowing position discrimination. A magnetic sensor was used in which a paramagnetic Au:Er temperature-sensitive material is located in a weak magnetic field. Deposition of energy from an x-ray photon causes an increase in temperature, which leads to a change of magnetization of the paramagnetic sensor, which is subsequently read out using a low noise dc-SQUID. The PoSM microcalorimeters are fully microfabricated: the Au:Er sensor is located above the meander, with a thin insulation gap in between. For this position-sensitive device, four electroplated absorbers are thermally linked to the sensor via heat links of different thermal conductance. One pixel is identical to that of a single-pixel design, consisting of an overhanging absorber fabricated directly on top of the sensor. It is therefore very strongly thermally coupled to it. The three other absorbers are supported directly on a silicon-nitride membrane. These absorbers are thermally coupled to the sensor via Ti (5 nm)/Au250 nm) metal links. The strength of the links is parameterized by the number of gold squares making up the link. For detector performance, experimentally different pulse-shapes were demonstrated with 6 keV x-rays, which clearly show different rise times for different absorber positions. For energy resolution measurement, the PoSM was operated at 32 mK with an applied field that was generated using a persistent current of 50 mA. Over the four pixels, energy resolution ranges from 4.4 to 4.7 eV were demonstrated.

Bandler, SImon↗

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗

The Effect of Turbulence Modeling on the Mixing Characteristics of Several Fuel Injectors at Hypervelocity Flow Conditions

CFD analysis is presented on the effects of turbulence modeling choices on the mixing characteristics and performance of three fuel injectors at hypervelocity flow conditions. The analyses were carried out with the VULCAN-CFD solver using Reynolds-Averaged Simulations (RAS). The hypervelocity flow conditions match the high Mach number flow of the experiments conducted as a part of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project (EIMP) at the NASA Langley Research Center. The three injectors are the baseline configurations used in the experiments and represent three categories of injectors typically considered individually or in combination for fueling high-speed propulsive devices. The current work discusses the impact of the turbulence model and the turbulent Schmidt number on the mixing flow field behavior and the mixing performance as described by the one-dimensional values of the Mach number, total pressure recovery, and the mixing efficiency. Because planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) images are available from the EIMP experiments, the sensitivity of the synthetic LIF signal to turbulence modeling choices is also examined to determine whether PLIF can be extended beyond its intended qualitative visualization purpose and used to guide CFD turbulence model and parameter selections. It is found that the mixing performance, as quantified using mixing efficiency, exhibits a strong sensitivity to both turbulence model choice and turbulent Schmidt number value. However, the synthetic LIF signal only demonstrates a modest level of sensitivity, which suggests that PLIF is of limited use for guiding CFD turbulence model and parameter selections.

Drozda, Tomasz G.↗

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Carotid Intima Media Thickness in the Astronaut Corps: Association to Spacecraft

Background: Carotid Intima Media Thickness (CIMT) has been demonstrated to be predictive of future cardiovascular events. Within various populations, radiation exposure, stress, and physical confinement have all been linked to an increased CIMT. Recent research discovered CIMT was significantly increased in ten long duration astronauts from pre-flight to four days post flight. The relationship between spaceflight and CIMT is not understood and trends in CIMT within the larger astronaut population are unknown. Methods: In 2010, CIMT was offered as part of the astronaut annual exam at the JSC Flight Medicine Clinic using a standardized CIMT screening protocol and professional sonographers. Between 2010 and 2016, CIMT measurements were collected on 213 NASA astronauts and payload specialists. The values used in this retrospective chart review are the mean of the CIMT from the right and left. Spaceflight exposure was categorized based on the total number of days spent in space at the time of the ground-based ultrasound (0, 1-29, 30-100, 101-200, ≥200). Linear regression with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the association between spaceflight exposures and CIMT. Results: 530 studies were completed among 213 astronauts with a mean of 2.5 studies (range 1-6) per astronaut over the six year period. As in other populations, CIMT was significantly associated with age; however, gender was not. While there was no significant direct correlation between total spaceflight exposure and CIMT found, astronauts with 30-100 spaceflight days and astronauts with greater than 100 spaceflight days had significantly increased CIMT over astronauts who had never flown (p=0.002 and p=<0.0001 respectively) after adjustment for age. Conclusion: Further work is needed to fully understand CIMT and its association to spaceflight. Current occupational surveillance activities are under way to study CIMT values in conjunction with other cardiovascular risk factors among astronauts as compared to the general population.

Suffredini, John↗

IAF 15 Draft Paper

With the International Space Station Program transition from assembly to utilization, focus has been placed on the optimization of essential resources. This includes resources both resupplied from the ground and also resources produced by the ISS. In an effort to improve the use of two of these, the ISS Engineering teams, led by the ISS Program Systems Engineering and Integration Office, undertook an effort to modify the techniques use to perform several key on-orbit events. The primary purposes of this endeavor was to make the ISS more efficient in the use of the Russian-supplied fuel for the propulsive attitude control system and also to minimize the impacts to available ISS power due to the positioning of the ISS solar arrays. Because the ISS solar arrays are sensitive to several factors that are present when propulsive attitude control is used, they must be operated in a manner to protect them from damage. This results in periods of time where the arrays must be positioned, rather than autonomously tracking the sun, resulting in negative impacts to power generated by the solar arrays and consumed by both the ISS core systems and payload customers. A reduction in the number and extent of the events each year that require the ISS to use propulsive attitude control simultaneously accomplishes both these goals. Each instance where the ISS solar arrays normal sun tracking mode must be interrupted represent a need for some level of powerdown of equipment. As the magnitude of payload power requirements increases, and the efficiency of the ISS solar arrays decreases, these powerdowns caused by array positioning, will likely become more significant and could begin to negatively impact the payload operations. Through efforts such as this, the total number of events each year that require positioning of the arrays to unfavorable positions for power generation, in order to protect them against other constraints, are reduced. Optimization of propulsive events and transitioning some of them to non-propulsive CMG control significantly reduces propellant usage on the ISS leading to the reduction of the propellant delivery requirement. This results in move available upmass that can be used for delivering critical dry cargo, additional water, air, crew supplies and science experiments.

Menkin, Evgeny↗

Noise and error analysis and optimization in particle-based kinetic plasma simulations

In this paper we analyze the noise in macro-particle methods used in plasma physics and fluid dynamics, leading to approaches for minimizing the total error, focusing on electrostatic models in one dimension. We begin by describing kernel density estimation for continuous values of the spatial variable x, expressing the kernel in a form in which its shape and width are represented separately. The covariance matrix of the noise in the density is computed, first for uniform true density. The bandwidth of the covariance matrix C(x,y) is related to the width of the kernel. A feature that stands out is the presence of constant negative terms in the elements of the covariance matrix both on and off-diagonal. These negative correlations are related to the fact that the total number of particles is fixed at each time step; they also lead to the property ∫C(x,y)dy = 0. We investigate the effect of these negative correlations on the electric field computed by Gauss's law, finding that the noise in the electric field is related to a process called the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge, leading to a covariance matrix of the electric field with variance significantly reduced relative to that of a Brownian process. For non-constant density, p(x), still with continuous x, we analyze the total error in the density estimation and discuss it in terms of bias-variance optimization (BVO). For some characteristic length l, determined by the density and its second derivative, and kernel width h, having too few particles within h leads to too much variance; for h that is large relative to l, there is too much smoothing of the density. The optimum between these two limits is found by BVO. For kernels of the same width, it is shown that this optimum (minimum) is weakly sensitive to the kernel shape. Next, we repeat the analysis for x discretized on a grid. In this case the charge deposition rule is determined by a particle shape. An important property to be respected in the discrete system is the exact preservation of total charge on the grid; this property is necessary to ensure that the electric field is equal at both ends, consistent with periodic boundary conditions. We find that if the particle shapes satisfy a partition of unity property, the particle charge deposited on the grid is conserved exactly. Further, if the particle shape is expressed as the convolution of a kernel with another kernel that satisfies the partition of unity, then the particle shape obeys the partition of unity. This property holds for kernels of arbitrary width, including widths that are not integer multiples of the grid spacing. Furthermore, we show results relaxing the approximations used to do BVO optimization analytically, by doing numerical computations of the total error as a function of the kernel width, on a grid in x. The comparison between numerical and analytical results shows good agreement over a range of particle shapes. We discuss the practical implications of our results, including the criteria for design and implementation of computationally efficient particle shapes that take advantage of the developed theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Proto-neutron star convection and the neutrino-driven wind: implications for the r-process

The neutrino-driven wind from proto-neutron stars is a proposed site for r-process nucleosynthesis, although most previous work has found that a wind heated only by neutrinos cannot produce the third r-process peak. However, several groups have noted that introducing a secondary heating source within the wind can change the hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently for a strong r-process to proceed. One possible secondary heating source is gravito-acoustic waves, generated by convection inside the proto-neutron star. As these waves propagate into the wind, they can both accelerate the wind and shock and deposit energy into the wind. Additionally, the acceleration of the wind by these waves can reduce the total number of neutrino captures and thereby reduce the final electron fraction of the wind. In neutron rich conditions, all of these effects can make conditions more favourable for r-process nucleosynthesis. Here, we present a systematic investigation of the impact of these convection-generated gravito-acoustic waves within the wind on potential nucleosynthesis. We find that wave effects in the wind can generate conditions favourable for a strong r-process, even when the energy flux in the waves is a factor of 10 –4 smaller than the total neutrino energy flux and the wind is marginally neutron rich. Nevertheless, this depends strongly on the radius at which the waves become non-linear and form shocks. We also find that both entropy production after shock formation and the acceleration of the wind due to stresses produced by the waves prior to shock formation impact the structure and nucleosynthesis of these winds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast Transformation of Temporal Plans for Efficient Execution

Temporal plans permit significant flexibility in specifying the occurrence time of events. Plan execution can make good use of that flexibility. However, the advantage of execution flexibility is counterbalanced by the cost during execution of propagating the time of occurrence of events throughout the flexible plan. To minimize execution latency, this propagation needs to be very efficient. Previous work showed that every temporal plan can be reformulated as a dispatchable plan, i.e., one for which propagation to immediate neighbors is sufficient. A simple algorithm was given that finds a dispatchable plan with a minimum number of edges in cubic time and quadratic space. In this paper, we focus on the efficiency of the reformulation process, and improve on that result. A new algorithm is presented that uses linear space and has time complexity equivalent to Johnson s algorithm for all-pairs shortest-path problems. Experimental evidence confirms the practical effectiveness of the new algorithm. For example, on a large commercial application, the performance is improved by at least two orders of magnitude. We further show that the dispatchable plan, already minimal in the total number of edges, can also be made minimal in the maximum number of edges incoming or outgoing at any node.

Tsamardinos, Ioannis↗

Interactive Terascale Particle Visualization

This paper describes the methods used to produce an interactive visualization of a 2 TB computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data set using particle tracing (streaklines). We use the method introduced by Bruckschen et al. [2001] that pre-computes a large number of particles, stores them on disk using a space-filling curve ordering that minimizes seeks, and then retrieves and displays the particles according to the user's command. We describe how the particle computation can be performed using a PC cluster, how the algorithm can be adapted to work with a multi-block curvilinear mesh, and how the out-of-core visualization can be scaled to 296 billion particles while still achieving interactive performance on PG hardware. Compared to the earlier work, our data set size and total number of particles are an order of magnitude larger. We also describe a new compression technique that allows the lossless compression of the particles by 41% and speeds the particle retrieval by about 30%.

Ellsworth, David↗