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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed ( ) and average lowest pressure ( ); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal ( ) and west longitudinal ( ) positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index ( ); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy ( ); (7) sum and average number of storm days ( ); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index ( ); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation ( ) index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode ( ) index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index ( ); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation ( ) index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

satellite↗
NASA NTRS2015

The ENSO Effects on Tropical Clouds and Top-of-Atmosphere Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP5 Models

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

Su, Wenying↗
NASA NTRS2015

Active and Widespread Halogen Chemistry in the Tropical and Subtropical Free Troposphere

Halogens in the troposphere are increasingly recognized as playing an important role for atmospheric chemistry, and possibly climate. Bromine and iodine react catalytically to destroy ozone (O3), oxidize mercury, and modify oxidative capacity that is relevant for the lifetime of greenhouse gases. Most of the tropospheric O3 and methane (CH4) loss occurs at tropical latitudes. Here we report simultaneous measurements of vertical profiles of bromine oxide (BrO) and iodine oxide (IO) in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere (10degN to 40degS), and show that these halogens are responsible for 34% of the column-integrated loss of tropospheric O3. The observed BrO concentrations increase strongly with altitude (approx.3.4 pptv at 13.5 km), and are 2-4 times higher than predicted in the tropical free troposphere. BrO resembles model predictions more closely in stratospheric air. The largest model low bias is observed in the lower tropical transition layer (TTL) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and may reflect a missing inorganic bromine source supplying an additional 2.5-6.4 pptv total inorganic bromine (Bry), or model overestimated Bry wet scavenging. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous chemistry on ice clouds, and imply an additional Bry source from the debromination of sea salt residue in the lower TTL. The observed levels of bromine oxidize mercury up to 3.5 times faster than models predict, possibly increasing mercury deposition to the ocean. The halogen-catalyzed loss of tropospheric O3 needs to be considered when estimating past and future ozone radiative effects.

Wang, Siyuan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes due to Particle Acceleration in Tropical Storm Systems

Terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) are submillisecond flashes of energetic radiation that are believed to emanate from intracloud lightning inside thunderstorms. This emission can be detected hundreds of kilometers from the source by space-based observatories such as the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). The location of the TGF-producing storms can be determined using very low frequency (VLF) radio measurements made simultaneously with the Fermi detection, allowing additional insight into the mechanisms which produce these phenomena. In this paper, we report 37 TGFs originating from tropical storm systems for the first time. Previous studies to gain insight into how tropical cyclones formed and how destructive they can be include the investigation of lightning flash rates and their dependence on storm evolution. We find TGFs to emanate from a broad range of distances from the storm centers. In hurricanes and severe tropical cyclones, the TGFs are observed to occur predominately from the outer rainbands. A majority of our sample also show TGFs occurring during the strengthening phase of the encompassing storm system. These results verify that TGF production closely follows when and where lightning predominately occurs in cyclones. The intrinsic characteristics of these TGFs were not found to differ from other TGFs reported in larger samples. We also find that some TGF-producing storm cells in tropical storm systems far removed from land have a low number of WWLLN sferics. Although not unique to tropical cyclones, this TGF/sferic ratio may imply a high efficiency for the lightning in these storms to generate TGFs.

Roberts, O. S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Formation of Cirrus Clouds near the Tropical Tropopause and Their Implications for Stratospheric Humidity, Radiation Budgets, and Climate

Optically-thin cirrus clouds are a nearly ubiquitous feature of the transition layer between the tropical troposphere and stratosphere (known as the Tropical Tropopause Layer). Given their high occurrence frequency, these clouds have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget, with a particularly strong influence on the outgoing longwave radiation. Further, ice crystal growth and sedimentation in these clouds dehydrates air in the cold TTL to very low water vapor mixing ratios. Since transport from the troposphere into the stratosphere occurs primarily through the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation transports air from the TTL throughout the stratosphere, cloud processes in the TTL cold trap essentially regulate the humidity of the entire stratosphere. It has been shown that even small changes in stratospheric humidity can have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget and climate, with magnitudes comparable to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases. The humidity of air crossing the TTL cold trap depends to first order on tropical tropopause temperatures, but also on deep convection reaching the TTL, large-scale transport (in balance with TTL radiative heating), atmospheric waves, and cloud microphysical processes. Gaps in our understanding of TTL transport and cloud processes motivated the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX). ATTREX used the long-range (16,000 km), high-altitude (20 km) Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system equipped with twelve instruments measuring clouds, water vapor, meteorological conditions, chemical tracers, chemical radicals, and radiation. I will discuss the physics of TTL cirrus formation and the impact of these clouds on water vapor and radiation budgets, including new results emerging from the ATTREX measurements.

Jensen, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Inland Maintenance and Reintensification of Tropical Storm Bill (2015). Part II: Precipitation Microphysics

Tropical Storm Bill produced over 400 mmof rainfall to portions of southern Oklahoma from 16-20 June 2015, adding to the catastrophic urban and river flooding that occurred throughout the region in the month prior to landfall. The unprecedented excessive precipitation event that occurred across Oklahoma and Texas during May and June 2015 resulted in anomalously high soil moisture and latent heat fluxes over the region, acting to increase the available boundary layer moisture. Tropical Storm Bill progressed inland over the region of anomalous soil moisture and latent heat fluxes which helped maintain polarimetric radar signatures associated with tropical, warm rain events. Vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables such as Z(H), Z(DR), K(DP), and ρ(hv) were analyzed in time and space over Texas and Oklahoma. The profiles suggest that Tropical Storm Bill maintained warm rain signatures and collision-coalescence processes as it tracked hundreds of kilometers inland away from the landfall point consistent with tropical cyclone precipitation characteristics. Dual-frequency precipitation radar observations from the NASA GPM DPR were also analyzed post-landfall and showed similar signatures of collision-coalescence while Bill moved over north Texas, southern Oklahoma, eastern Missouri, and western Kentucky.

Noah S. Brauer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Stable Layers on Downdrafts in Tropical Deep Convection

Previous studies have demonstrated that one pathway by which dry air can interrupt tropical cyclone intensification is by inducing downdrafts that flood the surface inflow layer with low entropy air. While work has been performed examining the relationship between dry air and downdraft intensity, very little has been done to investigate the potential for features of the convective environment, such as stable layers, to inhibit the downward progression of downdrafts. This study aims to understand the role that stable layers have on inhibiting the downward progression of downdrafts and their associated low entropy air in the context of tropical deep convection. Specifically, this study asks two key questions: can a stable layer halt the downward progression of a downdraft or merely slow its velocity and can a stable layer stop the injection of low entropy air into the boundary layer? The present study aims to answer these questions using a combination of high-altitude airborne radar and dropsonde observations, both collected within four tropical cyclones (Gaston, Hermine, Karl, and Matthew) during the 2016 NOAA SHOUT field campaign, as well as idealized simulations of tropical deep convection. Preliminary results suggest that precipitation-free downdrafts can be blocked by a stable layer while precipitation-laden downdrafts are weakened, but not stopped, by the presence of a stable layer. This presentation will primarily focus on the precipitation-laden downdrafts that can be observed via airborne radar. Additionally, the presentation will conclude with a brief discussion of the implications of downdraft/stable-layer interactions for a tropical cyclone ingesting dry environmental air.

Charles N Helms↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Faster Tropical Upper Stratospheric Upwelling is Driving Changes in Ozone Chemistry

Trends in N2O and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) cause trends in O3 through changes in their reactive product gases, NOx and ClOx, but transport plays an important role because it controls the distribution of the long‐lived source gases that produce ozone‐destroying radicals. In this study we show that increased tropical upwelling 10‐5 hPa from 2013‐2021 has changed upper stratospheric (UpS) composition and shifted the balance of O3 loss processes. We use N2O, HNO3, NOx, temperature and O3 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the SCI‐Sat Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transport Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) over a 16‐year period to show how changes in reactive nitrogen species affected gas phase ozone chemistry above 30 hPa between June 2013‐May 2021 compared to the previous 8 years, June 2005‐May 2013. We use 2 simulations of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM), with and without time varying MERRA2 meteorology, to understand how dynamical changes during this 16‐yr period affected O3 through changes in loss via the NOx and ClOx cycles. We also identify the role that the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical zonal winds plays in the UpS composition changes. We find large increases in tropical upwelling and poleward transport in the northern branch of the UpS transport circulation since 2013 that dramatically increased the abundance of the N2O and its odd nitrogen product gases, NOx and HNO3. O3 loss by NOx in the Arctic UpS increased due to dynamically driven composition change, explaining the observed weak O3 recovery in that region since 2005. The increased upwelling also drove decreases in tropical NOx, leading to increased tropical O3 from 12‐6 hPa.

middle atmosphere chemistry and composition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tropical Convection Through the Lens of the INCUS Mission

The overarching goal of the recently selected NASA INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS) mission is to enhance our understanding of why, when and where tropical convective storms form, and why only some of these storms produce extreme weather. Convective storms provide an important pathway for the transport of air and water between Earth’s surface and the upper troposphere. This vertical transport of air and water, often referred to as convective mass flux (CMF), plays a critical role in Earth’s weather and climate system through its impacts on microphysical and precipitation rates, detrainment and upper tropospheric moistening, high cloud feedbacks, and the large-scale circulation. Potential changes to the CMF as a function of the local environment or with changing climates may also have significant implications for severe weather such as flood-producing rainfall, damaging hail and lightning. In spite of the critical role of this vertical transport of water and air, representation of CMF remains a major source of error in weather and climate models, thereby limiting our ability to accurately predict convective storms and their impacts. The tropics-wide observations from INCUS will enhance our understanding of tropical convective storm processes and will provide guidance for representing these processes in numerical models across scales. INCUS is comprised of three SmallSat platforms each carrying a RainCube-heritage Ka-band 7-beam scanning radar. The satellite platforms will be 30 and 90 seconds apart, thus providing three time intervals (30, 90 and 120 seconds) over which observations will be made. INCUS will investigate CMF using a novel time-differenced radar reflectivity profile approach. In addition to the Ka-band radar, a single TEMPEST-D-heritage cross-track-scanning passive microwave radiometer will be housed on the middle SmallSat. The radiometer will provide extensive storm context for the radar observations, as well as observations of the convective anvils. The combination of the radars and radiometer on INCUS will deliver unprecedented three-dimensional views of tropical convective storms. INCUS is the first systematic investigation of the rapidly evolving CMF within tropical convective storms, the observations of which are expected to significantly enhance both our understanding and prediction of storm structure, their dynamics and microphysical processes, and the ways in which these evolve over storm lifetimes. This presentation will highlight the observational capabilities and scientific approach of the INCUS mission.

Susan C. van den Heever↗
DOE OSTI2020

Competing effects of soil fertility and toxicity on tropical greening

Tropical forests are expected to green up with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but primary productivity may be limited by soil nutrient availability. However, rarely have canopy-scale measurements been assessed against soil measurements in the tropics. Here, we sought to assess remotely sensed canopy greenness against steep soil nutrient gradients across 50 1-ha mature forest plots in Panama. Contrary to expectations, increases in in situ extractable soil phosphorus (P) and base cations (K, Mg) corresponded to declines in remotely sensed mean annual canopy greenness (r 2 = 0.77– 0.85; p < 0.1), controlling for precipitation. The reason for this inverse relationship appears to be that litterfall also increased with increasing soil P and cation availability (r 2 = 0.88–0.98; p < 0.1), resulting in a decline in greenness with increasing annual litterfall (r 2 = 0.94; p < 0.1). As such, greater soil nutrient availability corresponded to greater leaf turnover, resulting in decreased greenness. However, these decreases in greenness with increasing soil P and cations were countered by increases in greenness with increasing soil nitrogen (N) (r 2 = 0.14; p < 0.1), which had no significant relationship with litterfall, likely reflecting a direct effect of soil N on leaf chlorophyll content, but not on litterfall rates. In addition, greenness increased with extractable soil aluminum (Al) (r 2 = 0.97; p < 0.1), but Al had no significant relationship with litterfall, suggesting a physiological adaptation of plants to high levels of toxic metals. Thus, spatial gradients in canopy greenness are not necessarily positive indicators of soil nutrient scarcity. Using a novel remote sensing index of canopy greenness limitation, we assessed how observed greenness compares with potential greenness. We found a strong relationship with soil N only (r 2 = 0.65; p < 0.1), suggesting that tropical canopy greenness in Panama is predominantly limited by soil N, even if plant productivity (e.g., litterfall) responds to rock-derived nutrients. Moreover, greenness limitation was also significantly correlated with fine root biomass and soil carbon stocks (r 2 = 0.62–0.71; p < 0.1), suggesting a feedback from soil N to canopy greenness to soil carbon storage. Altogether, these data point to the potential utility of a remote sensing product for assessing belowground properties in tropical ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Taxonomic and Functional Diversity of Aquatic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages and Water Quality in Rivers of the Dry Tropics of Costa Rica

One of Costa Rica’s driest areas is the province of Guanacaste, in the Pacific Northwest, with almost no rain during the dry season from November to April. Due to this marked seasonality, the area is covered by dry tropical deciduous forest, considered the most threatened and least known tropical ecosystem in this area. This study analyzes and characterizes the assemblages of aquatic macroinvertebrates in water bodies within the Tempisque basin. Biological water quality was measured using the BMWP′-CR index. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were analyzed using abundance, richness, and functional feeding group approaches (FFG). Partial least square (PLS) analyses were performed, and the relationships between environmental factors and macroinvertebrate assemblages are also discussed. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were dominated numerically by mayflies, caddisflies, flies, and beetles. The BWMP′-CR index showed varying biological water quality, ranging from “very bad” to “excellent,” depending on rainfall and site management. Results suggest that tropical Mesoamerican rivers contradict the “river continuum concept” because predators and scrapers displace shredders in numbers. On the other hand, the study area shows a notable high richness of the Coleoptera genera. The class Rhynchocoela (Nemertea) is reported for the first time in Central America. The results indicate that the dry forest river ecosystem shows staggering biodiversity despite the surrounding agricultural land use, probably because of their older origin concerning tropical rain forests in Central America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data from TropiRoot 1.0 database: tropical root characteristics across environments

TropiRoot 1.0 is a new tropical root database with root characteristics across environment gradients. It has data extracted from 104 new sources, resulting in more than 8000 rows of data (either species or community data). Most of the data in TropiRoot 1.0 includes root characteristics such as root biomass, morphology, root dynamics, mass fraction, architecture, anatomy, physiology and root chemistry. This initiative represents an approximately 30% increase in the currently available data for tropical roots in the Fine Root Ecology Database (FRED). TropiRoot 1.0, contains root characteristics from 25 different countries where seven are located in Asia, six in South America, five in Central America and the Caribbean, four in Africa, two in North America, and 1 in Oceania. Due to the volume of data, when ancillary data was available, including soil data, these data was either extracted and included in the database or their availability was recorded in an additional column. Multiple contributors checked the entries for outliers during the collation process to ensure data quality. For text-based observations, we examined all cells to ensure that their content relates to their specific categories. For numerical observations, we ordered each numerical value from least to greatest and plotted the values, checking apparent outliers against the data in their respective sources and correcting or removing incorrect or impossible values. Some data (soil and aboveground) have different columns for the same variable presented in different units, including originally published units, but root characteristics data had units converted to match the ones reported in FRED. By filling a gap from global databases, TropiRoot 1.0 expands our knowledge of otherwise so far underrepresented regions, and our ability to assess global trends. This advancement can be used to improve tropical forest representation in vegetation models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

This data package contains raw data, data output, and code of photosynthetic temperature response curves from tropical forests. Data are used in "Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach". The research investigates how photosynthetic optimum temperatures and shapes of photosynthetic temperature response curves varies across tropical forest climates and growth conditions. Growth climate variables include mean annual temperature, max and max temperature, diurnal temperature range, and aridity index. Meta-analysis combines 18 datasets with representation from Africa, Oceana, North American, and South America. Growth conditions analyzed considers deciduousness, successional status, light conditions, and whether plants are grown in situ or ex situ. All files, except for the raw datafile (Tropical_MetaAnalysis_Master_3.8.22_Edit.csv), have been processed using R code, which is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Lowland Tropical Forests Remain a Methane Sink Under Warming and Long-Term Hurricane Disturbance Recovery

The repository folder contains spreadsheets and script for soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, and precipitation measurements collected from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) at the Sabana Research Field Station, El Yunque National Forest (USDA Forest Service; 18°19′28.74″ N, 65°43′50.09″ W) — an open-air field warming experiment located in a lowland tropical forest in Puerto Rico within the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) — six to seven years after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017). All spreadsheets for soil and air microclimate data, as well as soil greenhouse gas data, are included as csv files. Air temperature data are also included as Excel spreadsheets (.xlsx). The script is built in R Studio, which is the only software required to run data analysis. This dataset is associated with the manuscript “Larocca Conte G ; Zuvela L ; Cruz-Pérez R ; Barreto-Vélez T ; Becerra-Santillan N ; Campbell S ; Chu H ; Dam T ; Grullón-Penkova I ; Kleit M ; Ortiz-Iglesias D ; Rubio-Lebrón L ; Cavaleri M ; Reed S ; Sihi D ; Wood T ; O'Connell C., 2026. Lowland Tropical Forests Remain a Methane Sink Under Warming and Long-Term Hurricane Disturbance Recovery. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. In review". The dataset was used to test the effect of warming on soil CH4 dynamics following long-term legacy effects of hurricane disturbance. The dataset includes: - An overall README file in word and pdf format describing methodology and spreadsheets’ structure. - Continuous measurements of soil temperature and moisture from January 2023 to July 2024 measured with Campbell CS655 probes (“TRACE_soil_temperature_and_moisture_2023_cleaned(in).csv” and “TRACE_soil_temperature_and_moisture_2024_cleaned. csv”). - Air temperature data measured with a HOBO MX23O1A data logger (“Hobo air temperature 2023 Sep 2024” and “Hobo air temperature 2023 Sep 2024” – “CSV FILES folders”). - Precipitation data from a nearby weather tower downloaded from González et al. (2025; “sabana_2020-2025.csv”). - Soil CH4 and CO2 effluxes measured intermittently in two summer campaigns (June – August 2023 and June – July 2024) with a LI-COR 8200-01S Portable Smart Chamber coupled with a LI-COR LI-7810 CH4/ CO2/H2O Trace Gas Analyzer (“23_24COMBO2.0.csv”). - R markdown script for data analysis (“Trace new_PLOTS.Rmd”).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Freundlich isotherm equation best represents phosphate sorption across soil orders and land use types in tropical soils of Puerto Rico

Biomass production in the lowland wet tropical forest is greater than in any other biome, and it is typically limited by soil phosphorus (P) availability. However, the mechanisms involved in the P cycle remain poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Soil P sorption processes are key in the P cycle and for understanding the extent of P limitation for plant productivity. Currently, a few ESMs include isotherm equations to model these processes. Although the Langmuir equation is widely cited, other isotherm equations may better describe sorption in tropical soils. Here, we use a diverse range of soil samples from Puerto Rico to test the validity of the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin equation. We found that across four soil orders (Inceptisols, Mollisols, Oxisols, Ultisols), and forested and cultivated land use types, the Freundlich equation best represented soil P sorption. Furthermore, the Langmuir and the Temkin equations poorly represent soil P adsorption, especially at low P concentrations. Specifically, the Langmuir equation underestimated soil P adsorption by 40% and the Temkin equation overestimated adsorption by 76%. We also found, as expected, that soil clay content and pH were the most important parameters explaining the variability of the Freundlich (K f ) constant. Greater clay content and lower pH, common in highly weathered Ultisols and Oxisols which are abundant in the tropics, led to greater K f values. Overall, our results suggest that a diversity of soils can prompt underestimation of P sorption when using the Langmuir isotherm, which leads to an overestimation of available P that can have repercussions on ESM predictions of the P cycle and tropical forest productivity.

Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon accumulation rate peaks at 1,000-m elevation in tropical planted and regrowth forests

Tropical planted and regrowth forests (TPRFs) are one of the most low-cost components for recovering biomass-stored carbon in the tropics. Nevertheless, challenges persist in pinpointing which elevational ranges exhibit the largest carbon accumulation rate ($γ$ rapid ) due to the highly inconsistent previous assessments. This prevents the selection of optimal locations for implementing large-scale reforestation in the tropics. Here, in this study, we proposed a refined approach that used a carbon accumulation threshold (<80% of the maximum value) to quantify $γ$ rapid in TPRFs at various elevations. We find that $γ$ rapid increases with elevations from 300 to 1,000 m and declines at elevations >1,000 m. TPRFs at elevations ~1,000 m exhibit three times more $γ$ rapid than lowland TPRFs. This optimal elevation, highly dependent on background temperatures, varies slightly but significantly across different mountains. These findings provide guidelines for policymakers to determine the optimal elevations from regional to continental scales when implementing reforestation initiatives in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗