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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Structure-based design of prefusion-stabilized human metapneumovirus fusion proteins

The human metapneumovirus (hMPV) fusion (F) protein is essential for viral entry and is a key target of neutralizing antibodies and vaccine development. The prefusion conformation is thought to be the optimal vaccine antigen, but previously described prefusion F proteins expressed poorly and were not well stabilized. Here, we use structures of hMPV F to guide the design of 42 variants containing stabilizing substitutions. Through combinatorial addition of disulfide bonds, cavity-filling substitutions, and improved electrostatic interactions, we describe a prefusion-stabilized F protein (DS-CavEs2) that expresses at 15mg/L and has a melting temperature of 71.9°C. Crystal structures of two prefusion-stabilized hMPV F variants reveal that antigenic surfaces are largely unperturbed. Importantly, immunization of mice with DS-CavEs2 elicits significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers against hMPV A1 and B1 viruses than postfusion F. The improved properties of DS-CavEs2 will advance the development of hMPV vaccines and the isolation of therapeutic antibodies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Priming antibody responses to the fusion peptide in rhesus macaques

Immunodominance of antibodies targeting non-neutralizing epitopes and the high level of somatic hypermutation within germinal centers (GCs) required for most HIV broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are major impediments to the development of an effective HIV vaccine. Rational protein vaccine design and non-conventional immunization strategies are potential avenues to overcome these hurdles. Here, we report using implantable osmotic pumps to continuously deliver a series of epitope-targeted immunogens to rhesus macaques over the course of six months to prime and elicit antibody responses against the conserved fusion peptide (FP). GC responses and antibody specificities were tracked longitudinally using lymph node fine-needle aspirates and electron microscopy polyclonal epitope mapping (EMPEM), respectively, to show antibody responses to the FP/N611 glycan hole region were primed, although exhibited limited neutralization breadth. Application of cryoEMPEM delineated key residues for on-target and off-target responses that can drive the next round of structure-based vaccine design.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Pneumococcal Capsule Type, 10D, is the 100th Serotype and Has a Large cps Fragment from an Oral Streptococcus

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major human pathogen producing structurally diverse capsular polysaccharides. Widespread use of highly successful pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) targeting pneumococcal capsules has greatly reduced infections by the vaccine types but increased infections by nonvaccine serotypes. Herein, we report a new and the 100th capsule type, named serotype 10D, by determining its unique chemical structure and biosynthetic roles of all capsule synthesis locus (cps) genes. The name 10D reflects its serologic cross-reaction with serotype 10A and appearance of cross-opsonic antibodies in response to immunization with 10A polysaccharide in a 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine. Genetic analysis showed that 10D cps has three large regions syntenic to and highly homologous with cps loci from serotype 6C, serotype 39, and an oral streptococcus strain (S. mitis SK145). The 10D cps region syntenic to SK145 is about 6 kb and has a short gene fragment of wciNα at the 5' end. The presence of this nonfunctional wciNα fragment provides compelling evidence for a recent interspecies genetic transfer from oral streptococcus to pneumococcus. Since oral streptococci have a large repertoire of cps loci, widespread PCV usage could facilitate the appearance of novel serotypes through interspecies recombination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping the immunogenic landscape of near-native HIV-1 envelope trimers in non-human primates

The induction of broad and potent immunity by vaccines is the key focus of research efforts aimed at protecting against HIV-1 infection. Soluble native-like HIV-1 envelope glycoproteins have shown promise as vaccine candidates as they can induce potent autologous neutralizing responses in rabbits and non-human primates. In this study, monoclonal antibodies were isolated and characterized from rhesus macaques immunized with the BG505 SOSIP.664 trimer to better understand vaccine-induced antibody responses. Our studies reveal a diverse landscape of antibodies recognizing immunodominant strain-specific epitopes and non-neutralizing neo-epitopes. Additionally, we isolated a subset of mAbs against an epitope cluster at the gp120-gp41 interface that recognize the highly conserved fusion peptide and the glycan at position 88 and have characteristics akin to several human-derived broadly neutralizing antibodies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Endemic Seroprevalence and Farmer Control Measures of Anthrax Among Ruminate Animals in Pakistan

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis (B. anthracis), is an important zoonotic disease of livestock that poses a threat to public safety. The present study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of Bacillus anthracis in sheep and cattle in endemic areas (Punjab and Balochistan provinces) of Pakistan by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Crosssectional survey was also done to assess the control measures of the farmers. Out of 401 serum samples from sheep and cattle, a total of 68 (16.9%) samples were seropositive for anti-PA antibodies; seroprevalence of B. anthracis in sheep and cattle was 22.11% (48/217) and 10.86% (20/184), respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (p<0.05) in Baluchistan province (33.3%, 44/132) compared to Punjab province (8.92%, 24/269). Most farmers (65.90%, 29/44) were not disposing carcasses as recommended. Around 77.28%, 17/22 of the veterinary officials reported the nonavailability of vaccine against anthrax and 63.63% (14/22) stated the lack of cold chain for the vaccine storage and transportation. We concluded that seroprevalence of B. anthracis in unvaccinated sheep and cattle is evidence that the pathogen is circulating in Baluchistan and Punjab provinces. So must applied an active surveillance and, strengthened veterinary practices vaccination programs to control anthrax outbreaks in endemic areas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of changes in protective behaviors and out-of-household activities by age on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalization in Chicago, Illinois

Even with an efficacious vaccine, protective behaviors (social distancing, masking) are essential for preventing COVID-19 transmission and could become even more important if current or future variants evade immunity from vaccines or prior infection. Here we created an agent-based model representing the Chicago population and conducted experiments to determine the effects of varying adult out-of-household activities (OOHA), school reopening, and protective behaviors across age groups on COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations. From September-November 2020, decreasing adult protective behaviors and increasing adult OOHA both substantially impacted COVID-19 outcomes; school reopening had relatively little impact when adult protective behaviors and OOHA were maintained. As of November 1, 2020, a 50% reduction in young adult (age 18-40) protective behaviors resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 15.93 (IQR 6.18, 36.23) to 40.06 (IQR 14.65, 85.21)and 19.87 (IQR 6.83, 46.83) to 47.74 (IQR 18.89, 118.77) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Increasing adult (age ≥18) OOHA from 65% to 80% of pre-pandemic levels resulted in increased latent infection prevalence per 100,000 from 35.18 (IQR 13.59, 75.00) to 69.84 (IQR 33.27, 145.89) and 38.17 (IQR 15.84, 91.16) to 80.02 (IQR 30.91, 186.63) with 15% and 45% school reopening. Similar patterns were observed for hospitalizations. In areas without widespread vaccination coverage, interventions to maintain adherence to protective behaviors, particularly among younger adults and in out-of-household settings, remain a priority for preventing COVID-19 transmission.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Elimination of human rabies in Goa, India through an integrated One Health approach

Dog-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people each year in India, representing one third of the estimated global rabies burden. Whilst the World Health Organization (WHO), World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have set a target for global dog-mediated human rabies elimination by 2030, examples of large-scale dog vaccination programs demonstrating elimination remain limited in Africa and Asia. We describe the development of a data-driven rabies elimination program from 2013 to 2019 in Goa State, India, culminating in human rabies elimination and a 92% reduction in monthly canine rabies cases. Smartphone technology enabled systematic spatial direction of remote teams to vaccinate over 95,000 dogs at 70% vaccination coverage, and rabies education teams to reach 150,000 children annually. An estimated 2249 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were averted over the program period at 526 USD per DALY, making the intervention ‘very cost-effective’ by WHO definitions. This One Health program demonstrates that human rabies elimination is achievable at the state level in India.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assembly of respiratory syncytial virus matrix protein lattice and its coordination with fusion glycoprotein trimers

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an enveloped, filamentous, negative-strand RNA virus that causes significant respiratory illness worldwide. RSV vaccines are available, however there is still significant need for research to support the development of vaccines and therapeutics against RSV and related Mononegavirales viruses. Individual virions vary in size, with an average diameter of ~130 nm and ranging from ~500 nm to over 10 µm in length. Though the general arrangement of structural proteins in virions is known, we use cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging to determine the molecular organization of RSV structural proteins. We show that the peripheral membrane-associated RSV matrix (M) protein is arranged in a packed helical-like lattice of M-dimers. We report that RSV F glycoprotein is frequently observed as pairs of trimers oriented in an anti-parallel conformation to support potential interactions between trimers. Our sub-tomogram averages indicate the positioning of F-trimer pairs is correlated with the underlying M lattice. These results provide insight into RSV virion organization and may aid in the development of RSV vaccines and anti-viral targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural basis for Zika envelope domain III recognition by a germline version of a recurrent neutralizing antibody

Recent epidemics demonstrate the global threat of Zika virus (ZIKV), a flavivirus transmitted by mosquitoes. Although infection is usually asymptomatic or mild, newborns of infected mothers can display severe symptoms, including neurodevelopmental abnormalities and microcephaly. Given the large-scale spread, symptom severity, and lack of treatment or prophylaxis, a safe and effective ZIKV vaccine is urgently needed. However, vaccine design is complicated by concern that elicited antibodies (Abs) may cross-react with other flaviviruses that share a similar envelope protein, such as dengue virus, West Nile virus, and yellow fever virus. This cross-reactivity may worsen symptoms of a subsequent infection through Ab-dependent enhancement. To better understand the neutralizing Ab response and risk of Ab-dependent enhancement, further information on germline Ab binding to ZIKV and the maturation process that gives rise to potently neutralizing Abs is needed. In this work, we use binding and structural studies to compare mature and inferred-germline Ab binding to envelope protein domain III of ZIKV and other flaviviruses. We show that affinity maturation of the light-chain variable domain is important for strong binding of the recurrent VH3-23/VK1-5 neutralizing Abs to ZIKV envelope protein domain III, and identify interacting residues that contribute to weak, cross-reactive binding to West Nile virus. These findings provide insight into the affinity maturation process and potential cross-reactivity of VH3-23/VK1-5 neutralizing Abs, informing precautions for protein-based vaccines designed to elicit germline versions of neutralizing Abs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic and Structural Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein for Universal Epitope Selection

Evaluation of immunogenic epitopes for universal vaccine development in the face of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 evolution remains a challenge. Herein, we investigate the genetic and structural conservation of an immunogenically relevant epitope (C662–C671) of spike (S) protein across SARS-CoV-2 variants to determine its potential utility as a broad-spectrum vaccine candidate against coronavirus diseases. Comparative sequence analysis, structural assessment, and molecular dynamics simulations of C662–C671 epitope were performed. Mathematical tools were employed to determine its mutational cost. We found that the amino acid sequence of C662–C671 epitope is entirely conserved across the observed major variants of SARS-CoV-2 in addition to SARS-CoV. Its conformation and accessibility are predicted to be conserved, even in the highly mutated Omicron variant. Costly mutational rate in the context of energy expenditure in genome replication and translation can explain this strict conservation. These observations may herald an approach to developing vaccine candidates for universal protection against emergent variants of coronavirus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

ChAdOx1 interacts with CAR and PF4 with implications for thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome

Vaccines derived from chimpanzee adenovirus Y25 (ChAdOx1), human adenovirus type 26 (HAdV-D26), and human adenovirus type 5 (HAdV-C5) are critical in combatting the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. As part of the largest vaccination campaign in history, ultrarare side effects not seen in phase 3 trials, including thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), a rare condition resembling heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), have been observed. This study demonstrates that all three adenoviruses deployed as vaccination vectors versus SARS-CoV-2 bind to platelet factor 4 (PF4), a protein implicated in the pathogenesis of HIT. We have determined the structure of the ChAdOx1 viral vector and used it in state-of-the-art computational simulations to demonstrate an electrostatic interaction mechanism with PF4, which was confirmed experimentally by surface plasmon resonance. These data confirm that PF4 is capable of forming stable complexes with clinically relevant adenoviruses, an important step in unraveling the mechanisms underlying TTS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A human antibody reveals a conserved site on beta-coronavirus spike proteins and confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) to coronaviruses (CoVs) are valuable in their own right as prophylactic and therapeutic reagents to treat diverse CoVs and as templates for rational pan-CoV vaccine design. We recently described a bnAb, CC40.8, from a CoV disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent donor that exhibits broad reactivity with human β-CoVs. Here, we showed that CC40.8 targets the conserved S2 stem helix region of the CoV spike fusion machinery. We determined a crystal structure of CC40.8 Fab with a SARS-CoV-2 S2 stem peptide at 1.6-Å resolution and found that the peptide adopted a mainly helical structure. Conserved residues in β-CoVs interacted with CC40.8 antibody, thereby providing a molecular basis for its broad reactivity. CC40.8 exhibited in vivo protective efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in two animal models. In both models, CC40.8-treated animals exhibited less weight loss and reduced lung viral titers compared to controls. Furthermore, we noted that CC40.8-like bnAbs are relatively rare in human COVID-19 infection, and therefore, their elicitation may require rational structure-based vaccine design strategies. Overall, our study describes a target on β-CoV spike proteins for protective antibodies that may facilitate the development of pan–β-CoV vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.621 (Mu) variant

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.621 (Mu) variant emerged in January 2021 and was categorized as a variant of interest by the World Health Organization in August 2021. This designation prompted us to study the sensitivity of this variant to antibody neutralization. In a live virus neutralization assay with serum samples from individuals vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccines, we measured neutralization antibody titers against B.1.621, an early isolate (spike 614D), and a variant of concern (B.1.351, Beta variant). We observed reduced neutralizing antibody titers against the B.1.621 variant (3.4- to 7-fold reduction, depending on the serum sample and time after the second vaccination) compared to the early isolate and a similar reduction when compared to B.1.351. Likewise, convalescent serum from hamsters previously infected with an early isolate neutralized B.1.621 to a lower degree. Despite this antibody titer reduction, hamsters could not be efficiently rechallenged with the B.1.621 variant, suggesting that the immune response to the first infection is adequate to provide protection against a subsequent infection with the B.1.621 variant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deletion of the A137R Gene from the Pandemic Strain of African Swine Fever Virus Attenuates the Strain and Offers Protection against the Virulent Pandemic Virus

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is causing a devastating pandemic in domestic and wild swine within an extended geographical area from Central Europe to East Asia, resulting in economic losses for the regional swine industry. There are no commercial vaccines; therefore, disease control relies on identification and culling of infected animals. We report here that the deletion of the ASFV gene A137R from the highly virulent ASFV-Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) isolate induces a significant attenuation of virus virulence in swine. A recombinant virus lacking the A137R gene, ASFV-G-DA137R, was developed to assess the role of this gene in ASFV virulence in domestic swine. Animals inoculated intramuscularly with 102 50% hemadsorption doses (HAD50) of ASFV-G-DA137R remained clinically healthy during the 28-day observational period. All animals inoculated with ASFV-G-DA137R had medium to high viremia titers and developed a strong virus-specific antibody response. Importantly, all ASFV-G-DA137Rinoculated animals were protected when challenged with the virulent parental strain ASFV-G. No evidence of replication of challenge virus was observed in the ASFV-GDA137R-inoculated animals. Therefore, ASFV-G-DA137R is a novel potential live attenuated vaccine candidate and one of the few experimental vaccine strains reported to induce protection against the highly virulent ASFV Georgia virus that is the cause of the current Eurasian pandemic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-Term and Low-Level Envelope C2V3 Stimulation by Highly Diverse Virus Isolates Leads to Frequent Development of Broad and Elite Antibody Neutralization in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

A minority of HIV-1-infected patients produce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs). Identification of viral and host correlates of bNAb production may help develop vaccines. We aimed to characterize the neutralizing response and viral and host-associated factors in Angola, which has one of the oldest, most dynamic, and most diverse HIV-1 epidemics in the world. Three hundred twenty-two HIV-1-infected adults from Angola were included in this retrospective study. Phylogenetic analysis of C2V3C3 env gene sequences was used for virus subtyping. Env-binding antibody reactivity was tested against polypeptides comprising the C2, V3, and C3 regions. Neutralizing-antibody responses were determined against a reference panel of tier 2 Env pseudoviruses in TZM-bl cells; neutralizing epitope specificities were predicted using ClustVis. All subtypes were found, along with untypeable strains and recombinant forms. Notably, 56% of the patients developed cross neutralizing, broadly neutralizing, or elite neutralizing responses. Broad and elite neutralization was associated with longer infection time, subtype C, lower CD4 + T cell counts, higher age, and higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to failure to develop bNAbs. Neutralizing antibodies targeted the V3-glycan supersite in most patients. V3 and C3 regions were significantly less variable in elite neutralizers than in weak neutralizers and nonneutralizers, suggesting an active role of V3C3-directed bNAbs in controlling HIV-1 replication and diversification. In conclusion, prolonged and low-level envelope V3C3 stimulation by highly diverse and ancestral HIV-1 isolates promotes the frequent elicitation of bNAbs. These results provide important clues for the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine. Studies on neutralization by antibodies and their determinants in HIV-1-infected individuals have mostly been conducted in relatively recent epidemics caused by subtype B and C viruses. Results have suggested that elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) is uncommon. The mechanisms underlying the elicitation of bNAbs are still largely unknown. We performed the first characterization of the plasma neutralizing response in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients from Angola. Angola is characterized by an old and dynamic epidemic caused by highly diverse HIV-1 variants. Remarkably, more than half of the patients produced bNAbs, mostly targeting the V3-glycan supersite in HIV-1. This was associated with higher age, longer infection time, lower CD4 + T cell counts, subtype C infection, or higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to patients that did not develop bNAbs. These results may help develop the next generation of vaccine candidates for HIV-1.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

FutureTense

Protective vaccines and reliable diagnostics are essential tools for controlling viral diseases. However, the efficacy of these tools can be diminished by mutations in viral genomes. The delay between the emergence of new viral strains and the redesign of vaccines and diagnostics allows for continued viral transmission. Is it possible to address this challenge by computationally predicting viral genome sequence evolution? Can we “future-proof” vaccines and diagnostics by targeting both current and anticipated future sequence variants? While predicting viral evolution is still an unsolved, “grand challenge” problem in biology, the large, and rapidly growing, number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences provide an opportunity to quantify the ability of machine learning to predict viral genome sequence evolution. Towards this end, we have developed a simple computational model for predicting viral evolution at the level of individual nucleotides. The key metric for quantifying the per-base, prediction accuracy for viral evolution is the Mann-Whitney U statistic (or, equivalently, the area under the receiver operator curve). Since the Mann-Whitney U statistic is not a differentiable function, existing deep leaning packages (like Pytorch and Keras/TensorFlow) are not useful, as they require that the accuracy metric/objective function be analytically differentiable with respect to the model parameters. To overcome this challenge, we have implemented custom software, “FutureTense”, that can train a machine learning model by maximizing the non-differentiable Mann-Whitney U statistic. This software trains a machine learning model by exploring along the direction of the discrete gradient of the Mann-Whitney U statistic in the model parameter space. Parallel computing and genome sequence-specific optimizations are used to accelerate model training. The resulting machine learning model learns the observed high C->U mutation rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome (which are potentially induced by host defenses) and provides prediction accuracies that are significantly better than one would expect from random chance. While predicting viral evolution is still quite far from a solved problem, the surprising performance of this simple model gives hope that the accuracy of predicting viral genome evolution can be further increased by more sophisticated approaches.

Gans, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transient knockdown of Anopheles stephensi LRIM1 using RNAi increases Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite salivary gland infections

Abstract Background Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (PfSPZ) can be administered as a highly protective vaccine conferring the highest protection seen to date. Sanaria® PfSPZ vaccines are produced using aseptically reared Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. The bionomics of sporogonic development of P. falciparum in A. stephensi to fully mature salivary gland PfSPZ is thought to be modulated by several components of the mosquito innate immune system. In order to increase salivary gland PfSPZ infections in A. stephensi and thereby increase vaccine production efficiency, a gene knock down approach was used to investigate the activity of the immune deficiency (IMD) signaling pathway downstream effector leucine-rich repeat immune molecule 1 ( LRIM1 ), an antagonist to Plasmodium development. Methods Expression of LRIM1 in A. stephensi was reduced following injection of double stranded (ds) RNA into mosquitoes. By combining the Gal4/UAS bipartite system with in vivo expression of short hairpin (sh) RNA coding for LRIM1 reduced expression of LRIM1 was targeted in the midgut, fat body, and salivary glands. RT-qPCR was used to demonstrate fold-changes in gene expression in three transgenic crosses and the effects on P. falciparum infections determined in mosquitoes showing the greatest reduction in LRIM1 expression. Results LRIM1 expression could be reduced, but not completely silenced, by expression of LRIM1 dsRNA. Infections of P. falciparum oocysts and PfSPZ were consistently and significantly higher in transgenic mosquitoes than wild type controls, with increases in PfSPZ ranging from 2.5- to tenfold. Conclusions Plasmodium falciparum infections in A. stephensi can be increased following reduced expression of LRIM1. These data provide the springboard for more precise knockout of LRIM1 for the eventual incorporation of immune-compromised A. stephensi into manufacturing of Sanaria’s PfSPZ products.

Billingsley, Peter F. (ORCID:0000000311424813)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2

Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial epidemiological growth rate––which is a function of mutational load and population susceptibility to the cluster––along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating viruses. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually succeed with ~80% sensitivity, providing up to eight months advance warning. As a cluster expands, the predictions improve while the lead-time for vaccine development and other interventions decreases. However, attempts to make comparable predictions from 12 years of empirical influenza surveillance data, which are far sparser and more coarse-grained, achieve only 56% sensitivity. By expanding influenza surveillance to obtain more granular estimates of the frequencies of and population-wide susceptibility to emerging viruses, we can better anticipate major antigenic transitions. This provides added incentives for accelerating the vaccine production cycle to reduce the lead time required for strain selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗