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DOE OSTI2022

Structure-Informed Graph Learning of Networked Dependencies for Online Prediction of Power System Transient Dynamics

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. Here, this paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2020

Perimatrix of middle ear cholesteatoma: A granulation tissue with a specific transcriptomic signature

Objectives/Hypothesis: To establish comprehensive transcriptomic profiles of cholesteatoma perimatrix tissue and granulation tissue from chronic otitis media (COM) that did not develop cholesteatoma, which can indicate molecular pathways involved in the cholesteatoma perimatrix pathology and invasiveness. Study Design: Retrospective Case Series. Methods: Transcriptome data were obtained from cholesteatoma perimatrix tissue and COM granulation tissue by an Illumina iScan microarray. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were subsequently analyzed using both bioinformatical functional annotation and network analysis. Expression of candidate genes (MMP9 and LCN2) was validated by quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) on a larger group of samples. Results: Analysis of the transcriptome led to the identification of 169 differentially expressed genes between investigated tissues. Bioinformatic analysis suggested that most significant biological processes involving DEGs were previously described in cholesteatoma pathology. Network analysis identified ERBB2, TFAP2A, and TP63 as major hubs of the DEGs molecular network. Furthermore, it was observed that the cellular component most significantly enriched in DEGs was extracellular space containing 47 DEGs. Using qRT-PCR, it was confirmed that mRNA levels of the major extracellular hub (MMP9) are increased, whereas its interacting molecule (LCN2) mRNA levels were decreased in cholesteatoma perimatrix tissue compared to COM granulation tissue. Conclusions: The current study approach offers an overall look at molecular mechanisms that describe the cholesteatoma entity by focusing exclusively on the perimatrix processes in comparison to COM granulation tissue. The observed differences in gene expression between cholesteatoma perimatrix and COM granulation tissue could suggest novel markers potentially influenced by the perimatrix–matrix molecular interplay, which is not present in COM without cholesteatoma. Level of Evidence: NA. Laryngoscope, 130:E220–E227, 2020. © 2019 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Surface Solar Irradiance Using Meteosat-8 Satellite for India and Surrounding Regions (2017-2019)

Using the Physical Solar Model, Version 3 (PSM V3), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Solar Consulting Services—produced modeled surface solar irradiance based on Meteosat-8 satellite cloud information. PSM V3 implements a physics-based radiative transfer approach to model surface solar irradiance using cloud properties processed from raw satellite data and ancillary data such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, the modeled surface solar irradiance was validated using 10 high-quality ground measurement data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The modeled data showed good correlation with the ground measurement, and the overall uncertainty is less than 35% for all validation locations. Because of the satellite viewing geometry, the Indian and European locations demonstrated higher uncertainties than the African locations, where the Meteosat-8 satellite has a more nadir viewing geometry. Further, instruction on how to access the data is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of internal cyber attacks in nuclear facilities and an artificial neural network model for implementing internal cyberforensics

Deployment of digital technologies within a modern shift in cyber defense systems is essential for protecting the energy production units. One of the important components of defense is cyberforensics: once an attack has been detected to locate its origin. In this paper, a review of well-known cyberattacks in nuclear facilities is provided, with the lessons learned leading to the development of a machine learning approach implementing identification of internal at- tacks in the facility's data networks. Our approach may be seen as one of the layers in a defense-in-depth strategy that identifies if the attack comes from inside, which may result in identifying faster the attacker's origin. The presented model exploits network packet examination to cast accurate predictions on detailing the origin of malicious network connections. The approach fuses multiple mathematical functions within an artificial neural network to provide a response in the form of 0/1, i. e., whether the attack is identified as internal or not. The utilization of a variety of test cases is developed to explore the relevance and validity of the predictive approach. The proposed implementation is examined with network data packet variance, and the results obtained exhibit a highly accurate detection rate.

Nuclear Science & Technology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating Anthracnose Resistance Mechanisms in Sorghum—A Review

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is the fifth most cultivated cereal crop in the world, traditionally providing food, feed, and fodder, but more recently also fermentable sugars for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals. The hemibiotrophic fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineola, the causal agent of anthracnose disease in sorghum, is prevalent in the warm and humid climates where much of the sorghum is cultivated and poses a serious threat to sorghum production. The use of anthracnose-resistant sorghum germplasm is the most environmentally and economically sustainable way to protect sorghum against this pathogen. Even though multiple anthracnose resistance loci have been mapped in diverse sorghum germplasm in recent years, the diversity in C. sublineola pathotypes at the local and regional levels means that these resistance genes are not equally effective in different areas of cultivation. This review summarizes the genetic and cytological data underlying sorghum’s defense response and describes recent developments that will enable a better understanding of the interactions between sorghum and C. sublineola at the molecular level. This includes releases of the sorghum genome and the draft genome of C. sublineola, the use of next-generation sequencing technologies to identify gene expression networks activated in response to infection, and improvements in methodologies to validate resistance genes, notably virus-induced and transgenic gene silencing approaches.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography

The solution stability of river models using the one-dimensional (1D) Saint-Venant equations can be easily undermined when source terms in the discrete equations do not satisfy the Lipschitz smoothness condition for partial differential equations. Although instability issues have been previously noted, they are typically treated as model implementation issues rather than as underlying problems associated with the form of the governing equations. This study proposes a new reference slope form of the Saint-Venant equations to ensure smooth slope source terms and eliminate one source of potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-section flow area and the total Piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow. The reference slope method ensures the slope source term in the governing equations is Lipschitz continuous while maintaining all the underlying complexity of the real-world geometry. The validity of the mathematical concept is demonstrated with the open-source Simulation Program for River Networks (SPRNT) model in a series of artificial test cases and a simulation of a small urban creek. Validation comparisons are made with analytical solutions and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. The new method reduces numerical oscillations and instabilities without requiring ad hoc smoothing algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Validation of CNN-Based Surrogate Models for Inverter-Based Resources in Open-Source Solvers

Traditionally, distribution system planning has focused on steady-state analyses, with limited consideration of dynamic behavior. However, as large or medium-scale inverter-based resources (IBRs), particularly grid-following (GFL) inverters in commercial or industry buildings, become more prevalent, understanding their dynamic impact is essential for grid planning and operation. This article presents an innovative deep-learning (DL)-approach using convolutional neural networks technique to model the GFL inverters. Developed from real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data, these dynamic DL models overcome proprietary constraints by requiring minimal knowledge of internal converter physics while maintaining high accuracy and flexibility. To demonstrate their applicability, the models were incorporated into GridLAB-D, an open-source, three-phase distribution analysis tool. This integration enables dynamic simulations of large-scale distribution networks with high IBR penetration stability analysis. Rigorous testing and validation, aligned with industry standards, confirmed the reliability and efficiency of this approach, paving the way for enhanced planning and operational assessments of modern power systems.

Deep-learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

CommAwareNet: Towards Communication‐Aware Smart Facilities: Designing an Energy‐Efficient High‐Data‐Rate and Reliable Hybrid THz/VLC Comm. Arch. Reinforced with Intelligent Surfaces for Future Network

This project will develop foundations for energy-efficient, high-data-rate, and reliable communication links for next-generation advanced wireless technologies. The Internet of Everything is emerging as a major technology that can establish a massively connected network among both human-type users and machine-type devices. Particularly, massive machine-type communication is becoming the dominant communication paradigm for numerous emerging areas, including data center networking and wireless backhaul, healthcare (e-health), manufacturing (industry 4.0), utilities, transportation (connected cars and public safety), and virtual or augmented reality for human-machine interaction applications. The rising demand for high data rates, especially in indoor scenarios and densely populated outdoor environments, will eventually overload conventional RF-based technologies. This project aims to conduct fundamental research to design, optimize, and validate a communication-aware, energy-efficient, and reliable network (CommAwareNet) architecture for future smart facilities and environments that require unprecedented high throughput needs for massive numbers of the machine- and human-type users. The scientific and technical merit of this work lies in the research required to bring the proposed transformative CommAwareNet solution into fully functional and practical architecture.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Bayesian Tensor Learning With Automatic Rank Determination and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in many machine learning tasks is that the model expressive power depends on model size. Low-rank tensor methods are an efficient tool for handling the curse of dimensionality in many large-scale machine learning models. The major challenges in training a tensor learning model include how to process the high-volume data, how to determine the tensor rank automatically, and how to estimate the uncertainty of the results. While existing tensor learning focuses on a specific task, this paper proposes a generic Bayesian framework that can be employed to solve a broad class of tensor learning problems such as tensor completion, tensor regression, and tensorized neural networks. We develop a low-rank tensor prior for automatic rank determination in nonlinear problems. Our method is implemented with both stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). We compare the automatic rank determination and uncertainty quantification of these two solvers. We demonstrate that our proposed method can determine the tensor rank automatically and can quantify the uncertainty of the obtained results. We validate our framework on tensor completion tasks and tensorized neural network training tasks.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Co-Optimization Scheme for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Powertrain and Exhaust Emission Control System Using Future Speed Prediction

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been an effective solution for improved vehicle fuel efficiency and reduced emission pollution. In this paper, a co-optimization scheme is proposed to optimize fuel efficiency for HEVs. Here, the proposed optimization scheme uses obtainable future speed prediction as the basis to optimally tune control parameters for the existing powertrain control system. The ramp-up time of the catalyst temperature to reach its light-off level in the exhaust emission system is also considered as an additional optimization constraint to reduce emission. The Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model which is an integrated model for a powertrain and exhaust emission system is validated using real data from several real driving cycle scenarios. Then, to simplify the formulation of the proposed algorithm, the model for the optimization for powertrain and exhaust emission systems is represented by a set of equivalent neural network (NN) models learned using the data generated from the well-validated Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model. Using NN models, a co-optimization algorithm is established that provides an optimal tuning of some fuel-sensitive powertrain control parameters using future speed prediction, leading to a novel co-optimization algorithm, achieving on average a further 9.22% fuel savings for the Toyota Prius Hybrid Simulink model.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Designing resilient IoT and Edge Computing with federated tinyML

The rapid growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) has brought significant conveniences to modern society but has also greatly expanded the cyber attack surfaces, particularly as these technologies are being increasingly integrated into critical systems such as power grids, healthcare, and smart homes. Here, to improve IoT/EC’s cybersecurity posture, we leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) by employing tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data for cyber threats while addressing devices’ resource constraints, and utilizing Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. Building on our three-layer architecture combining tinyML and FL to enhance autonomous cyber attack detection, this paper demonstrated that the architecture improves detection accuracy, reduces resource consumption, and enables lightweight, secure IoT device monitoring. These results were validated using the public N-BaIoT dataset as well as real IoT network traffic data collected under multiple attack scenarios from our testbeds. Additionally, we introduced an enhanced FL methodology with a novel preprocessing stage, including federated feature selection and global preprocessor construction, to address IoT/EC data heterogeneity. We developed a physical IoT testbed for attack simulations and data collection, implemented a tinyML-powered detector for realistic model validation, and also built a virtual testbed for scalable evaluations of FL models across diverse network environments.

Cognitive cyber↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling laws for two-dimensional dendritic crystal growth in a narrow channel

Here, we investigate analytically and computationally the dynamics of two-dimensional needle crystal growth from the melt in a narrow channel. Our analytical theory predicts that, in the low supersaturation limit, the growth velocity $\textit{V}$ decreases in time $\textit{t}$ as a power law $V ~t^{–2/3}$, which we validate by phase-field and dendritic-needle-network simulations. Simulations further reveal that, above a critical channel width $Λ ≈ 5l_D$, where $l_D$ is the diffusion length, needle crystals grow with a constant $V < V_s$, where $V_s$ is the free-growth needle crystal velocity, and approaches $V_s$ in the limit $Λ \gg l_D$.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗