Results for “Value Model” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2025

Air Dispersion Modeling for the Idaho National Laboratory Permit to Construct P-2020.0045 Facility Emission Cap Revision Request

The U.S. Department of Energy Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) is seeking to modify permit to construct (PTC) P-2020.0045 issued to U S Dept. of Energy – Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on January 29, 2021 by the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). This PTC allowed the INL to become a synthetic minor source of air pollutants using a facility emission cap (FEC). Air dispersion modeling was performed as part of the permit revision application process to demonstrate that the modifications will comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). This report documents the modeling methodology and complete results for the air dispersion impact analysis and is supplied as an appendix to the permit revision request, Idaho National Laboratory Permit to Construct P-2020.0045 (INL 2025). All criteria air pollutants (CAPs) regulated under Section 109 of the Clean Air Act were modeled with the exception of lead (Pb) and ozone which are not required to be modeled by DEQ. Consistent with the original permit application, modeling was not performed for toxic air pollutants (TAPs) as uncontrolled emissions did not exceed screening emission levels for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic TAPs. Acceptable model design values (concentrations) for each CAP and averaging period were summed with average background concentrations and compared to NAAQS. The results demonstrate the impacts of requested FEC limits for CAPs are less than applicable standards and demonstrate emissions up to FEC limits will not cause a violation of ambient air quality standards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗

NASA NTRS2016

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the potential of plastic waste upcycling using thermochemical technologies: A case study in Spain

A plastic waste upcycling value chain model has been applied to assess the potential of processing packaging waste in Spain using thermo-chemical technologies to produce low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene (PP), which are highly valuable materials. The model projects an annual profit of 120.6 M$\$$/yr, with a capital investment of 789.3 M$\$$, generating 3285 jobs and contributing 65.5 M$\$$/yr to Spain’s economy. The achieved circularity rate of the waste processing infrastructure exceeds 40 %, incorporating recycled HDPE and PET. Despite these advantages, regulatory gaps and market hesitancy toward recycled materials due to quality concerns hinder adoption. Additionally, economies of scale remain underutilized in Spain due to lower plastic waste collection levels compared to countries such as the United States. This network, while less profitable, is environmentally superior, yielding upcycled products with a Global Warming Potential 20–35 % lower than their virgin, fossil-fuel counterparts, confirming this as a viable and sustainable alternative.

Chemical upcycling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of the Value Added When Deploying a Model-Based Approach for the Validation and Verification of the Medical Database Software

The Medical Database (MD) is a virtual repository consisting of two software components: Medical Item Database (MedID) and the Evidence Library (EL). MedID consists of engineering data and associated information for specific medical resource items (e.g., pharmaceutical, medical devices, and supporting components), while the EL is a tool which provides all of the medical evidence necessary. The MD will 1) serve as the single “source of truth” for the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool suite for both medical evidence and medical resource engineering data and 2) will be used in conjunction with the IMPACT tool suite to inform research prioritizations and perform systematic trade study evaluations to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding simulated human spaceflight missions. The MD project used a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to support all life cycles of the software development, while in parallel the human factors engineering team used modeling to support Human Centered Design (HCD) strategies in an effort to improve software usability. HCD is a frequently used approach in design frameworks that develops resolutions to complexities and challenges by involving the human perspective in all steps of the problem-solving process. By integrating the model-based approaches used for systems engineering and human factors activities, the project is able to leverage the model-based artifacts originally created for HCD activities for system level and human factors validation. In this presentation, our team highlights the value added when leveraging these model-based artifacts to support the on-going verification and validation activities.

C. Laing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How to Educate Decision Makers on the Value and Necessity of Modal Testing and Model Correlation: Tips for Young Engineers

Engineers need to effectively communicate the justification and value of their modal testing and model correlation in terminology familiar to decision makers as it relates to the program’s risk tolerance. This communication must relate to the program’s risk tolerance and the metrics used to judge the performance of both the program and individual decision makers. The challenge is the terminologies familiar to engineers and decision makers are quite different and seemingly unrelated. The engineering profession has developed a specific terminology to solve highly technical issues, which are many times themselves unique to very specific engineering problems. It is all too easy for engineers to believe that everyone in their organization, including the decision makers, has an intrinsic understanding of what they do and the value it brings to the program’s success. This is especially true for young engineers who have recently spent the last four plus years in an academic engineering learning environment, which has a highly technical research oriented atmosphere. Effective communication with decision makers is increasingly important as the technical breadth and practical program and project experience level for up and coming decision makers diminishes. It is not unusual for the decision makers to have technical knowledge in a domain different from structural dynamics (e.g., electronics or systems). Competition among satellite manufactures has increased the focus on programmatic cost and ability to deliver on schedule. NASA programs are also seeing more restrictive programmatic cost and schedule constraints, which impact both analysis and testing. It should also be noted that a comprehensive suite of tests are required to verify a satellite’s design capability with some margin. These tests include static strength verification tests, shock, acoustic, and vibration tests (sine and random) of systems, subsystems, and components. Each of these verification tests provide opportunities for model correlation and risk reduction. It is important to recognize dynamic loads/modal test models may not include all of the flight hardware (i.e., harness, coax, waveguides, connectors, etc.) and the previously mentioned tests are still required for qualification/verification of the design. This paper provides tips to young engineers on how to bridge this communications gap, have a better understanding of the environment in which decision makers operate, and assist them to better support successful missions. While this paper primarily focuses on modal testing and model correlation as related to spacecraft missions, the concepts and recommendations presented here are equally applicable to other fields such as aeronautics, automotive, power generation, etc.

Decision Maker↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How to Educate Decision Makers on the Value and Necessity of Modal Testing and Model Correlation: Tips for Young Engineers

Engineers need to effectively communicate the justification and value of their modal testing and model correlation in terminology familiar to decision makers as it relates to the program’s risk tolerance. This communication must relate to the program’s risk tolerance and the metrics used to judge the performance of both the program and individual decision makers. The challenge is the terminologies familiar to engineers and decision makers are quite different and seemingly unrelated. The engineering profession has developed a specific terminology to solve highly technical issues, which are many times themselves unique to very specific engineering problems. It is all too easy for engineers to believe that everyone in their organization, including the decision makers, has an intrinsic understanding of what they do and the value it brings to the program’s success. This is especially true for young engineers who have recently spent the last four plus years in an academic engineering learning environment, which has a highly technical research oriented atmosphere. Effective communication with decision makers is increasingly important as the technical breadth and practical program and project experience level for up and coming decision makers diminishes. It is not unusual for the decision makers to have technical knowledge in a domain different from structural dynamics (e.g., electronics or systems). Competition among satellite manufactures has increased the focus on programmatic cost and ability to deliver on schedule. NASA programs are also seeing more restrictive programmatic cost and schedule constraints, which impact both analysis and testing. It should also be noted that a comprehensive suite of tests are required to verify a satellite’s design capability with some margin. These tests include static strength verification tests, shock, acoustic, and vibration tests (sine and random) of systems, subsystems, and components. Each of these verification tests provide opportunities for model correlation and risk reduction. It is important to recognize dynamic loads/modal test models may not include all of the flight hardware (i.e., harness, coax, waveguides, connectors, etc.) and the previously mentioned tests are still required for qualification/verification of the design. This paper provides tips to young engineers on how to bridge this communications gap, have a better understanding of the environment in which decision makers operate, and assist them to better support successful missions. While this paper primarily focuses on modal testing and model correlation as related to spacecraft missions, the concepts and recommendations presented here are equally applicable to other fields such as aeronautics, automotive, power generation, etc.

Decision Maker↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for the Chiral Magnetic Effect with charge-dependent azimuthal correlations in Xe–Xe collisions at s NN = 5.44 TeV

Charge-dependent two- and three-particle correlations measured in Xe–Xe collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = TeV are presented. Results are obtained for charged particles in the pseudorapidity range |η| and transverse momentum interval 02. ≤ p T < GeV/c for different collision centralities. The three-particle correlator γ αβ ≡ $\langle$cos(φ α + φ β - 2Ψ a )$\rangle$, calculated for different combinations of charge sign α and β, is expected to be sensitive to the presence of the Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME). Its magnitude is similar to the one observed in Pb–Pb collisions in contrast to a smaller CME signal in Xe–Xe collisions than in Pb–Pb collisions predicted by Monte Carlo (MC) calculations including a magnetic field induced by the spectator protons. These observations point to a large non-CME contribution to the correlator. Furthermore, the charge dependence of γ αβ can be described by a blast wave model calculation that incorporates background effects and by the Anomalous Viscous Fluid Dynamics model with values of the CME signal consistent with zero. The Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb results are combined with the expected CME signal dependence on the system size from the MC calculations including a magnetic field to obtain the fraction of CME contribution in γ αβ , $f$ CME . The CME fraction is compatible with zero for the 30% most central events in both systems and then becomes positive. This yields an upper limit of 2% (3%) and 25% (32%) at 95% (99.7%) confidence level for the CME signal contribution to γ αβ in the 0–70% Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updated parameters of the LArQL model

The need for a microscopic description of scintillation light generation in liquid argon becomes increasingly desirable with the upcoming operation of large scale LArTPCs in the next decade. While a detailed mathematical account of the process is still to be achieved, a phenomenological model for simultaneously treating ionization and scintillation, LArQL, has been successfully employed to describe the range of electric fields from 0 to 0.75 kV/cm and dE/dx from 2 to 40 MeV/cm providing the anti-correlation between the free ionization charge and scintillation light. A reanalysis of the original model parameter values has been performed within a global fit procedure and is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capital Structure for Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Projects

This report provides updated generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) parameter estimates of assumptions that may be used to reflect the cost of financing hydrogen infrastructure deployment. The report also provides parameter estimation for more streamlined financial analysis frameworks such as discounted cash flow and annualized financial models. Parameter values are derived from industry feedback and are reflective of current macro-economic factors such as higher interest rates and higher risk profile of emerging hydrogen technologies, given a myriad of factors such as projects’ construction inexperience, capital costs, and rising inflation, among others.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI Spectroscopy of HETDEX Emission-line Candidates. I. Line Discrimination Validation

The Hobby–Eberly Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) is an untargeted spectroscopic galaxy survey that uses Lyα-emitting galaxies (LAEs) as tracers of 1.9 < z < 3.5 large-scale structure. Most detections consist of a single emission line, whose identity is inferred via a Bayesian analysis of ancillary data. To determine the accuracy of these line identifications, HETDEX detections were observed with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In two DESI pointings, high-confidence spectroscopic redshifts are obtained for 1157 sources, including 982 LAEs. The DESI spectra are used to evaluate the accuracy of the HETDEX object classifications and tune the methodology to achieve the HETDEX science requirement of ≲2% contamination of the LAE sample by low-redshift emission-line galaxies, while still assigning 96% of the true Lyα emission sample with the correct spectroscopic redshift. We compare emission-line measurements between the two experiments assuming a simple Gaussian line fitting model. Fitted values for the central wavelength of the emission line, the measured line flux, and line widths are consistent between the surveys within uncertainties. Derived spectroscopic redshifts, from the two classification pipelines, when both agree as an LAE classification, are consistent to within $\langle$Δz/(1 + z)$\rangle$ = 6.9 × 10 −5 with an rms scatter of 3.3 × 10 −4 . Data are available at https://data.desi.lbl.gov/desi/public/dr1/vac/dr1/hetdex.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Decision-directed adaptive recursive estimators - Divergence prevention.

A method is proposed for dealing with the divergence phenomenon problem encountered in applications of minimum-variance recursive estimators when the error covariance calculated by the estimator becomes inconsistent with the actual error covariance. The proposed method differs from previous ones in that the state model and statistics are accepted as given. The form of the optimal estimator is used, but a constant check is made on the consistency of the calculated and actual error covariances. The method is independent of the source of error, whether it be inaccuracies in the system model, incorrect values of the a priori and random process statistics, approximations required in the case of nonlinear systems, or computational roundoff. Several simulated examples, in which inconsistencies in the calculated and actual error covariances exist, show a significant improvement in the performance of the estimator when the given procedure is applied.

Nahi, N. E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Comparison of the Beckmann model with bidirectional reflectance measurements.

The Beckmann model is compared with recently reported bidirectional reflectance measurements. Comparisons revealed that monochromatic specular and bidirectional reflectance measurements are not adequately described by corresponding results evaluated from the model using mechanically acquired surface roughness parameters (rms height and rms slope). Significant improvement between measurements and predictions of the model is observed when optically acquired surface roughness parameters are used. Specular reflectance measurements for normal to intermediate polar angles of incidence are adequately represented by the model provided values of optical roughness multiplied by cosine of polar angle of incidence are less than 27 times average optical rms slope.

Smith, T. F.↗

NASA NTRS1974

High power ac/dc variable R dynamic electrical load simulator

A study program was undertaken to investigate various concepts and techniques for identifying and simulating both the steady-state and dynamic characteristics of electrical loads for use during integrated system test and evaluation. The development of hardware capable of providing the simulation capability is discussed. A general purpose simulator was developed with the capability of realizing a variety of models where element values were discretely variable. The different models, each corresponding to real spacecraft equipment, are set up manually for each case by suitable switching and patching. The models are capable of duplicating the dynamic and steady-state response of real loads at full power.

Joncas, K. P.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Evolution of models for evolution

The paper discusses models of evolution and their values, and some critiques of these models and the value of these critiques. A model is investigated which involves the formation of prebiotic protein from amino acids. Its formation by four theoretical critiques that suggest alternative environmental conditions is discussed. Experiments are reviewed so as to illustrate the experimental testing of the possible weaknesses of a model for a single molecular evolutionary phase and to suggest some necessary changes in the model.

Rohlfing, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Four-D global reference atmosphere

Model generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface level to orbital altitudes. Program can define altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters for simulated trajectory.

Robertson, B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Gamma rays and the case for baryon symmetric big-bang cosmology

The baryon symmetric big-bang cosmologies offer an explanation of the present photon-baryon ratio in the universe, the best present explanation of the diffuse gamma-ray background spectrum in the 1 to 200 MeV range, and a mechanism for galaxy formation. In the context of an open universe model, the value of omega which best fits the present gamma-ray data is omega equals approx. 0.1 which does not conflict with upper limits on Comptonization distortion of the 3K background radiation. In regard to He production, evidence is discussed that nucleosynthesis of He may have taken place after the galaxies were formed.

Stecker, F. W.↗