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At least 271 records · Page 15

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production, and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently, despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique C.↗

The Role of Mesoscale Variability on Plankton Dynamics in the North Atlantic

The intensive field observational phase of JGOFS in the North Atlantic Ocean has shown the importance of oceanic mesoscale variability on biogeochemical cycles and on the strength of the ocean biological pump. Mesoscale physical dynamics govern the major time/space scales of bulk biological variability (biomass, production and export). Mesoscale eddies seem to have a strong impact on the ecosystem structure and functioning, but observational evidence is rather limited. For the signature of the mesoscale features to exist in the ecosystem, the comparison of temporal scales of formation and evolution of mesoscale features and reaction of the ecosystem is a key factor. Biological patterns are driven by active changes in biological source and sink terms rather than simply by passive turbulent mixing. A first modelling assessment of the regional balances between horizontal and vertical eddy-induced nutrient supplies in the euphotic zone shows that the horizontal transport predominates over the vertical route in the subtropical gyre, whereas the reverse holds true for the other biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic. Presently. despite some difference in numbers, the net impact of modelled eddies yields an enhancement of the biological productivity in most provinces of the North Atlantic Ocean. Key issues remaining include variation on the mesoscale of subsurface particle and dissolved organic matter remineralization, improved knowledge of the ecological response to patterns of variability, synopticity in mesoscale surveys along with refining measures of biogeochemical time/space variability. Eventual success of assimilation of in situ and satellite data, still in its infancy in coupled physical/biogeochemical models, will be crucial to achieve JGOFS synthesis in answering which data are most informative, standing stocks or rates, and which ones are relevant. Depending on which end of the spectrum quantification of the effect of mesoscale features on production and community structure is required, complementary strategies are offered. Either one may choose to increase resolution of models up to the very fine mesoscale features scale (a few kms) for the high end, or to include a parametric representation of eddies for the low end.

Garcon, Veronique, C.↗

Evaluation ofthe Middle East and North Africa Land Data Assimilation System

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is dominated by dry, warm deserts, areas of dense population, and inefficient use of fresh water resources. Due to the scarcity, high intensity, and short duration of rainfall in the MENA, the region is prone to hydro climatic extremes that are realized by devastating floods and times of drought. However, given its widespread water stress and the considerable demand for water, the MENA remains relatively poorly monitored. This is due in part to the shortage of meteorological observations and the lack of data sharing between nations. As a result, the accurate monitoring of the dynamics of the water cycle in the MENA is difficult. The Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA region (MENA LDAS) has been developed to provide regional, gridded fields of hydrological states and fluxes relevant for water resources assessments. As an extension of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the MENA LDAS was designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of regional hydrological anomalies by synergistically combining the physically-based Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) with observations from several independent data products including soil-water storage variations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and irrigation intensity derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this fashion, we estimate the mean and seasonal cycle of the water budget components across the MENA.

Bolten, John D.↗

Southern Polar Ozone in MERRA-2

MERRA-2 provides a good representation of the year-to-year variations and the long-term changes in total ozone column over Antarctica for the entire data record, beginning in 1980. When MLS data are introduced into MERRA-2 in 2004, agreement with independent data improves compared to earlier years when the SBUV observations were assimilated.

MERRA-2↗

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Yang, S. C.↗

Exploring Climatology and Long-Term Variations of Aerosols from NASA Reanalysis MERRA-2 with Giovanni

Dust plays important roles in energy cycle and climate variations. The dust deposition is the major source of iron in the open ocean, which is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton growth and therefore may influence the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. Mineral dust can also act as fertilizer for forests over long time periods. Over 35 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated by using MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interact directly with the radiation parameterization, and radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Dust deposition data along with other major aerosol compositions (e.g. black carbon, sea salt, and sulfate, etc.) are simulated as dry and wet deposition, respectively. The hourly and monthly data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5ox0.625o (latitude x longitude). Quick data exploration of climatology and interannual variations of MERRA-2 aerosol can be done through the online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni. This presentation, using dust deposition as an example, demonstrates a number of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC. Global distributions of dust depositions, and their seasonal and inter-annual variations are investigated from MERRA-2 monthly aerosol products.

data services↗

Introduction to MODIS Cloud Products

The Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle are fundamentally coupled with the distribution and properties of clouds. Therefore, the ability to remotely infer cloud properties and their variation in space and time is crucial for establishing climatologies as a reference for validation of present-day climate models and in assessing future climate change. Remote cloud observations also provide data sets useful for testing and improving cloud model physics, and for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagers on the Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms provide the capability for globally retrieving these properties using passive solar reflectance and infrared techniques. In addition to providing measurements similar to those offered on a suite of historical operational weather platforms such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), MODIS provides additional spectral and/or spatial resolution in key atmospheric bands, along with on-board calibration, to expand the capability for global cloud property retrievals. The core MODIS operational cloud products include cloud top pressure, thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, particle size, and water path, and are derived globally at spatial resolutions of either 1- or 5-km (referred to as Level-2 or pixel-level products). In addition, the MODIS atmosphere team (collectively providing cloud, aerosol, and clear sky products) produces a combined gridded product (referred to as Level-3) aggregated to a 1 equal-angle grid, available for daily, eight-day, and monthly time periods. The wealth of information available from these products provides critical information for climate studies as well as the continuation and improved understanding of existing satellite-based cloud climatologies derived from heritage instruments. This chapter provides an overview of the MODIS Level-2 and -3 operational cloud products.

Baum, Bryan A.↗

OCO-2 Satellite-imposed Constraints on Terrestrial Biospheric CO2 Flux over South Asia

The spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial biospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) flux over South Asia is poorly understood. The inverse model “top-down” CO2 flux estimates which rely on atmospheric CO2 observational data are impeded by sparse in situ measurements over this region. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provides much needed global retrievals of column-average CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) with the finest spatial and temporal resolution and highest sensitivity to surface fluxes available to-date. This study conducted global inverse model simulations as part of the second OCO-2 Multi-model Intercomparison Project assimilating version 9 of the OCO-2 XCO2 retrievals in land nadir (LN) and land glint (LG) observing modes and global in situ (IS) measurements. The four-dimensional variational assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to estimate CO2 fluxes from 2015 to 2018. We then assessed the spatiotemporal variability of optimized CO2 Net ecosystem Exchange (NEE) fluxes aggregated over the South Asia region. The most robust result found by assimilating OCO-2 observations was the constraints imposed on the seasonal cycle of terrestrial biospheric fluxes over South Asia. The seasonality of South Asian NEE estimated by assimilating OCO-2 or global IS data showed a larger seasonal cycle compared to the current understanding of NEE in this region (represented by the prior NEE used in the model). The satellite-in situ joint inversion (IS + LN + LG) led to land flux seasonal amplitude (absolute magnitude of the difference between peak and trough of monthly mean values over a year) of 4.0 PgC yr-1, compared to the prior model (1.5 PgC yr-1). Moreover, OCO-2 data imposed a phase shift in the seasonal cycle, resulting in a large CO2 source in April and a large uptake in September. Most of the features in the seasonal cycle imposed by OCO-2 data are in agreement with previous “top-down” studies assimilating regional aircraft observations. Nevertheless, we recommend a closer examination of the novel features highlighted by the OCO-2 column data over South Asia in future studies by conducting regional inverse modelling with denser in situ and vertically-resolved regional observations along with satellite data.

OCO-2↗

Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data

Two 20-day, continental midlatitude cases are simulated with a three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving model (CRM) and compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data. This evaluation of long-term cloud-resolving model simulations focuses on the evaluation of clouds and surface fluxes. All numerical experiments, as compared to observations, simulate surface precipitation well but over-predict clouds, especially in the upper troposphere. The sensitivity of cloud properties to dimensionality and other factors is studied to isolate the origins of the over prediction of clouds. Due to the difference in buoyancy damping between 2D and 3D models, surface precipitation fluctuates rapidly with time, and spurious dehumidification occurs near the tropopause in the 2D CRM. Surface fluxes from a land data assimilation system are compared with ARM observations. They are used in place of the ARM surface fluxes to test the sensitivity of simulated clouds to surface fluxes. Summertime simulations show that surface fluxes from the assimilation system bring about a better simulation of diurnal cloud variation in the lower troposphere.

Zeng, Xiping↗

Estimating Model Error Using Observation Residuals

This presentation discusses an approach to estimate model error using observation residuals. Based on the sequential fixed-lag smoother; we introduce a diagnostic procedure to allow estimating model error over a dense observing system. Optimality considerations are examined in light of the sequential results. The procedure is re-interpreted in the language of variational assimilation, such as 4d-Var. Illustrations of the approach are given by studying both identical-twin and fraternal-twin experimental settings for a system governed by Lorenz-type dynamics. Preliminary results by looking at observation residual statistics for the ECMWF data assimilation system are also shown. The presentation will be part of a series of discussions on issues related to four-dimensional data assimilation under weak-constraint and methodologies to estimate model error.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Data Assimilation in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere: What Should be Next?

As part of the International Symposium on Assimilation of Observation in Meteorology and Oceanography, a panel discussion was held on the evening of 15 March 1995. The purpose of this panel discussion was focus on what the next major areas of research in data assimilation should be. The panelists had five minutes each for short presentations (Kalman filters, representers, etc.) and this was followed by an open discussion. This preprocessing will require a good understanding of the fine-scale phenomena. Least square methods such as Kalman filters and variational schemes are inefficient estimators of non-Gaussian field such as chemical traces. Regardless of the modeling technique employed (Lagrangian methods seem best), a least squares assimilation scheme will smear fine structure. The estimator of maximum likelihood must be sought, by examination of tracer probability distributions.

Kalnay, Eugenia↗

A four dimensional variational analysis experiment

A demonstration that the four dimensional variational analysis method using the governing equations as exact constraints can be successfully employed for a perfect model and for a simple, but nonlinear, system is presented. The method is stable in an assimilation cycle. The method reconstructs the unobservable variables; in the case demonstrated, no velocity data was observed. The analysis errors are much smaller than the observing system errors.

Hoffman, R.↗

Role of the Polar Oceans in Global Climate

The project focused on ice-ocean model development and in particular on the assimilation of ice motion data and ice concentration data into both regional and global models. Many of the resulting publications below deal with improvements made in the physics treated by the model and the procedures for assimilating data. Several papers examine how the ability of the model to simulate the past behavior of the ice cover, especially to represent the ice thickness and ice deformation, is improved by data assimilation. A second aspect of the work involved interpretation of modeled behavior. Resulting papers treat the decline of arctic ice thickness over the last thirty years, and how that decline was caused by a slight warming of the near-surface atmosphere, and also how large variation in ice thickness are due to changes in wind patterns associated with a well- known oscillation of the atmospheric circulation. The research resulted in over 20 published papers on these topics.

Rothrock, D. A.↗

The Variability and Predictability of Precipitation over Southeast Asian

The large scale atmospheric moisture budget, including precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and evaporation is described over southeast Asian. ne results are from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system for the period March 1981 - February 1995. On average, in the late spring and early summer season, precipitation is largely balanced by the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over southeast Asian; evaporation is also an important contributor. The seasonal variability of precipitation is best related to variations in the moisture flux convergence. On the monthly time scales, both the precipitable water and precipitation anomalies are most closely related to moisture flux convergence anomalies and less closely related to evaporation anomalies. The impact of the low-level jet (LLJ) on the strong low-level moisture flux convergence will be discussed. An ensemble of GEOS-2 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulation are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of initial conditions. We also assess the variability and potential predictability from these experiments.

Chang, Yehui↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Quasi-Two Day Wave in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Mesosphere

This study uses global synoptic meteorological fields from a high-altitude data assimilation system to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the quasi-2 day wave (Q2DW) and migrating diurnal tide during the Northern Hemisphere summers of 2007, 2008, and 2009. By applying a 2-dimensional fast Fourier transform to meridional wind and temperature fields, we are able to identify Q2DW source regions and to diagnose propagation of Q2DW activity into the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. We find that Q2DW is comprised primarily of westward propagating zonal wavenumber 3 and wavenumber 4 components that originate from within baroclinically unstable regions along the equatorward flank of the summer midlatitude easterly jet. Amplitude variations of wavenumbers 3 and 4 tend to be anti-correlated throughout the summer, with wavenumber 3 maximizing in July and wavenumber 4 maximizing in late June and early August. Monthly mean Q2DW amplitudes between 30 50N latitude are largest when diurnal tidal amplitudes are smallest and vice versa. However, there is no evidence of any rapid amplification of the Q2DW via nonlinear interaction with the diurnal tide. Instead, variations of Q2DW amplitudes during July are closely linked to variations in the strength and location of the easterly jet core from one summer to the next, with a stronger jet producing larger Q2DW amplitudes. Linear instability model calculations based on the assimilated wind fields find fast growing zonal wavenumber 3 and 4 modes with periods near 2 days in the vicinity of the easterly jet.

Two day wave↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗