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At least 271 records · Page 15

Constraining accuracy of the pairwise velocities in N -body simulations using scale-free models

We present a continuation of an analysis that aims to quantify resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 4096 3 ) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus. Here, we focus on radial pairwise velocities of the matter field, both by direct estimation and through the cumulative two-point correlation function (using the pair conservation equation). We find that convergence at the 1 per cent level of the mean relative pairwise velocity can be demonstrated over a range of scales, evolving from a few times the grid spacing at early times to slightly below this scale at late times. We show the analysis of two different box sizes as well as from averaging results from the smaller boxes, and compare the power of the two aforementioned estimators in constraining accuracy at each scale. Down to scales of the order of the smoothing parameter, convergence is obtained at ∼5 per cent precision, and shows a behaviour indicating asymptotic stable clustering. In conclusion, we also infer for LCDM simulations conservative estimates on the evolution of the lower cut-off to resolution (at 1 and 5 per cent precision) as a function of redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Landmark-Warped Emulators for Models with Misaligned Functional Response

Many computer models output functional data, and in some cases, these functional data have similar, but misaligned, shape characteristics. In this paper, we introduce a general approach for building emulators for computer models that output misaligned functional data when key values in the functional response (landmarks) can be easily identified. This approach has two main parts: modeling the aligned (using the landmarks) functional data, and modeling the functions that map the misaligned data to the aligned space (warping functions). As the warping functions are required to be monotonic, we give special attention to modeling monotonic functional response data. We discuss how our approach can be easily applied for a variety of typical emulators, such as Gaussian processes, Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines, and Bayesian additive regression trees, and how sensitivity analysis can be performed. We demonstrate our approach by building emulators for two applications: (1) a high-energy-density physics computer model used to simulate inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments, where model outputs are highly misaligned, and (2) a multiphysics continuum hydrocode used to simulate high-velocity impact experiments, where model outputs are only slightly misaligned. In case (1) traditional methods cannot be applied, while in (2) they can be applied, but the proposed method performs significantly better.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resource Assessment Study of Long Island Sound Tidal Resource in New York State Waters Based on Numerical Modeling (Abstract)

To refine the understanding of the tidal energy resource in Long Island Sound (LIS), Verdant Power and PNNL will collaborate to conduct a numerical modeling campaign in accordance with a Stage 2 resource assessment according to IEC TC 62600-201. The work will develop a high resolution tidal hydrodynamic model using FVCOM in LIS, validate the model using NOAA C-MIST ADCP data, and conduct a Stage 2 array layout design study at selected hotspots within the project area. The teams will also model tidal energy extraction using the FVCOMTEC module at the hotspot sites, based on specific device technologies provided by Verdant Power. Model results from this study will inform additional resource assessment activities such as in situ water velocity measurements for further model validation and elucidate understanding of other key sites in Long Island Sound for commercial-scale tidal energy deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulations for Planning of Liquid Hydrogen Spill Test

In order to better understand the complex pooling and vaporization of a liquid hydrogen spill, Sandia National Laboratories is conducting a highly instrumented, controlled experiment inside their Shock Tube Facility. Simulations were run before the experiment to help with the planning of experimental conditions, including sensor placement and cross wind velocity. This paper describes the modeling used in this planning process and its main conclusions. Sierra Suite’s Fuego, an in-house computational fluid dynamics code, was used to simulate a RANS model of a liquid hydrogen spill with five crosswind velocities: 0.45, 0.89, 1.34, 1.79, and 2.24 m/s. Two pool sizes were considered: a diameter of 0.85 m and a diameter of 1.7. A grid resolution study was completed on the smaller pool size with a 1.34 m/s crosswind. A comparison of the length and height of the plume of flammable hydrogen vaporizing from the pool shows that the plume becomes longer and remains closer to the ground with increasing wind speed. The plume reaches the top of the facility only in the 0.45 m/s case. From these results, we concluded that it will be best for the spacing and location of the concentration sensors to be reconfigured for each wind speed during the experiment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Convective and Turbulent Motions in Nonprecipitating Cu. Part II: LES Simulated Cloud Represented by a Starting Plume

The dynamic structure of a small trade wind cumulus (Cu) is analyzed using a novel approach. Cu developing in a shear-free environment is simulated by 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. The aim is to clarify the dynamical nature of cloud updraft zone (CUZ) including entrainment and mixing in growing Cu. The validity of concept stating that a cloud at developing state can be represented by a parcel or a jet is tested. To investigate dynamical entrainment in CUZ performed by motions with scales larger than the turbulence scales, the modeled fields of air velocity were filtered by wavelet filter that separated convective motions from turbulent ones. Two types of objects in developing cloud were investigated: small volume ascending at maximal velocity (point parcel) and CUZ. It was found that the point parcel representing the upper part of cloud core is adiabatic. The motion of the air in this parcel ascending from cloud base determines cloud-top height. The top-hat (i.e., averaged) values of updraft velocity and adiabatic fraction in CUZ are substantially lower than those in the point parcel. Evaluation of the terms in the dynamical equation typically used in 1D cloud parcel models show that this equation can be applied for calculation of vertical velocities at the developing stage of small Cu, at least up to the heights of the inversion layer. Dynamically, the CUZ of developing cloud resembles the starting plume with the tail of nonstationary jet. Both the top-hat vertical velocity and buoyancy acceleration linearly increase with the height, at least up to the inversion layer. An important finding is that lateral entrainment of convective (nonturbulent) nature has a little effect on the top-hat CUZ velocity and cannot explain the vertical changes of conservative variables qt and θl. In contrast, entrained air lifting inside CUZ substantially decreases top-hat liquid water content and its adiabatic fraction. Possible reasons of these effects are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Modeling of Cube Array Roughness: RANS, Large Eddy Simulation, and Direct Numerical Simulation

Abstract Flow over arrays of cubes is an extensively studied model problem for rough wall turbulent boundary layers. While considerable research has been performed in computationally investigating these topologies using direct numerical simulation (DNS) and large eddy simulation (LES), the ability of sublayer-resolved Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) to predict the bulk flow phenomena of these systems is relatively unexplored, especially at low and high packing densities. Here, RANS simulations are conducted on six different packing densities of cubes in aligned and staggered configurations. The packing densities investigated span from what would classically be defined as isolated, up to those in the d-type roughness regime, filling in the gap in the present literature. Three different sublayer-resolved turbulence closure models were tested for each case: a low Reynolds number k–ϵ model, the Menter k–ω SST model, and a full Reynolds stress model. Comparisons of the velocity fields, secondary flow features, and drag coefficients are made between the RANS results and existing LES and DNS results. There is a significant degree of variability in the performance of the various RANS models across all comparison metrics. However, the Reynolds stress model demonstrated the best accuracy in terms of the mean velocity profile as well as drag partition across the range of packing densities.

Engineering↗

A novel transformation of the ice sheet Stokes equations and some of its properties and applications

We introduce a novel transformation of the Stokes equations into a form closely resembling the shallow Blatter–Pattyn equations. The two forms differ by only a few additional terms, while their variational formulations differ only by a single term in each horizontal direction. Specifically, the variational formulation of the Blatter–Pattyn model drops the vertical velocity in the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. Here we make use of the new transformation in two ways. First, we consider incorporating the transformed equations into a code that can be very easily converted from a Stokes to a Blatter–Pattyn model, and vice versa, by switching these terms on or off. This may be generalized so that the Stokes model is switched on adaptively only where the Blatter–Pattyn model loses accuracy. Second, the key role played by the vertical velocity in the Blatter–Pattyn approximation motivates new approximations. Two examples are presented. These require a mesh that enables the discrete continuity equation to be invertible for the vertical velocity in terms of the horizontal velocity components. Examples of such meshes, such as the first-order P1–E0 mesh and the second-order P2–E1 mesh, are given in both 2D and 3D. However, the transformed Stokes model has the same type of gravity forcing as the Blatter–Pattyn model, determined by the ice surface slope, thereby forgoing some of the mesh generality of the traditional formulation of the Stokes model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MOSCATO Development and Integration in Fiscal Year 2025: Implementation of Multiphase, Multiphysics Modeling Capabilities for Molten Salt Systems

MOSCATO (Molten Salt Chemistry and Transport) is a multiphysics code that provides high-fidelity, coupled simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemistry, electrochemical phenomena, and alloy corrosion for molten salt systems. In FY25, significant developments were made to the code package, enhancing its capabilities for modeling all relevant phenomena within operating moltens salt reactors (MSRs). The developments and activities in FY25 included: 1. Implementation of Level-Set methods to enable modeling of single-bubble behavior in molten salts. In FY25, the Level-Set two-phase flow modeling implementation was improved to simulate single bubble behavior with molten salt media. The large density and viscosity ratios between typical gases and molten salt liquids present challenges for these types of numerical solvers. With enhancements to the pressure projection method, MOSCATO’s Level-Set solver was able to be successfully validated to experiments related to helium bubble rise in stagnant molten salt. The simulated bubble rising velocity showed reasonable good agreement with experimental measurements. The bubble shape and dynamics were also visually compared with experimental snapshots, demonstrating a good qualitative match. 2. Generation of mass transfer correlations for multiphase flow systems. To enable calculations of the tritium transport across the interface between gas bubbles and salt, we modeled high- Schmidt-number mass transfer around a sphere across a broad range of Reynolds numbers. The mesh near the sphere surface was highly refined to resolve steep concentration gradients caused by the low diffusion coefficient. Literature-based mass transfer correlations were compared with the numerical results, and modifications were proposed to improve agreement, particularly at higher Schmidt numbers. These mass transfer correlations were subsequently provided to other national laboratories to help enable high quality mass transfer simulations using lower-order solvers under development within the NEAMS program. 3. Preliminary implementation of a bubbly flow solver. To model bubbly flow in molten salt, we implemented a bubbly flow solver for void fractions less than 5%. To do so, an algebraic relative velocity model that assumes small bubbles with rapid momentum equilibration was added to MOSCATO to compute bubble velocities. Preliminary comparisons with experimental data showed reasonable agreement, and further improvements are underway. 4. Generation of mass transfer correlations for MSRE subchannel The Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) was a landmark historical project that demonstrated the feasibility of molten-salt reactor technology. The MSRE campaign also generated a significant body of experimental data and reports that continue to support molten-salt–related research. In this report, the MSRE core subchannel was used as the reference geometry for a mass transfer study performed with MOSCATO. The geometry and computational mesh were adapted from a previous study, providing adequate resolution for the relatively low Reynolds number in this case. Additional mesh refinement was applied to reach higher Schmidt numbers, enabling the derivation of a reliable mass-transfer correlation for the present scenario. 5. Simulations of oxygen ingressions into molten salt. In the previous fiscal year, we initiated a study to simulate oxygen ingression in stagnant salt. As oxygen enters the salt through its surface, it reacts with Ce 3+ to form solid CeO 2 and other reaction products. To more fully capture the complex diffusion-convection-reaction mechanisms, capabilities for modeling natural convection in the salt vessel were added. These were needed as the flow of the ingressed gas induced flow in the salt caused by surface shear and non-isothermal effects. With these updated physics in place, we were able to successfully reproduce the experimental results for the rate of change of CeCl 3 concentrations versus time. 6. Flow corrosion model validation. In FY24, MOSCATO’s corrosion model was validated against static corrosion experiments. In FY25, this work was extended to a flow corrosion experiment, where FLiNaK salt was driven by natural convection, with initial salt impurities to initiate corrosion. Despite uncertainties in parameters such as elemental diffusion coefficients in the alloy and unknown H + concentrations, the simulations achieved good agreement with experimental results, especially in predicting sample mass losses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A new woven composite constitutive model validated by shock wave experiments

In this paper, we present results of plate impact simulations of shock compressed woven glass fiber-reinforced plastic (GRP) performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian three-dimensional finite element code. A hyperelastic large-strain-based empirical Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) formulation is employed to describe damage initiation and growth in the shock-compressed GRP. The model parameters calibration scheme utilizes the Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector normal particle velocity measurements at the free surface of the GRP target plates. The impact velocity in the experiments ranged from 8.5 to 418 m/s. The finite element model considered planar 0°/90° bidirectional plies with an individual ply thickness of 0.68 mm, stacked to reach a total laminate thickness of 6.8 mm. The anisotropic elastic strains were estimated from the experimentally determined tetragonal symmetry stiffness matrix for the GRP. The strain-based damage model captures several salient features observed in the measured free surface particle wave profiles, including the shock rise time, onset of Elastic—Elastic Cracking, and the shape of the nonlinear portion of the experimental particle velocity profiles. Furthermore, the CDM model predicts the dominant damage mode to be matrix microcracking due to shear and the associated bulk expansion (bulking) under the global compressive loading in the plate impact configuration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Particle image velocimetry analysis with simultaneous uncertainty quantification using Bayesian neural networks

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is an effective tool in experimental fluid mechanics for extracting flow fields from images. Recently, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used to perform PIV analysis with accuracy on par with classical methods. Here we extend the use of CNNs to analyze PIV data while providing simultaneous uncertainty quantification on the inferred flow field. The method we apply in this paper is a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) which learns distributions of the CNN weights through variational Bayes. In order to demonstrate the utility of BCNNs for the PIV task, we compare the performance of three distinct BCNN models with simple architectures. The first network estimates flow velocity from image interrogation regions only. Our second model learns to infer velocity from both the image interrogation regions and interrogation region cross-correlation maps. Finally, our best performing network infers velocities from interrogation region cross-correlation maps only. We find that BCNNs using interrogation region cross-correlation maps as inputs perform better than those using interrogation windows only as inputs and discuss reasons why this may be the case. Additionally, we test the best performing BCNN on a full synthetic test image pair and a real image pair from the 1st International PIV Challenge. We show that ~98% of true particle displacements from the full synthetic image pair can be captured within the BCNN's 95% confidence intervals, and that the BCNN's performance on the real image pair is quantitatively similar to that of algorithms tested in the 1st International PIV Challenge. Finally, we show that BCNNs can be generalized to be used with multi-pass PIV algorithms with a moderate loss in accuracy, which may be overcome by future work on finetuning and training schemes. So to our knowledge, this is the first use of Bayesian neural networks to perform PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

EXPRES. II. Searching for Planets around Active Stars: A Case Study of HD 101501

By controlling instrumental errors to below 10 cm s{sup −1}, the EXtreme PREcision Spectrograph (EXPRES) allows for a more insightful study of photospheric velocities that can mask weak Keplerian signals. Gaussian processes (GP) have become a standard tool for modeling correlated noise in radial velocity data sets. While GPs are constrained and motivated by physical properties of the star, in some cases they are still flexible enough to absorb unresolved Keplerian signals. We apply GP regression to EXPRES radial velocity measurements of the 3.5 Gyr old chromospherically active Sun-like star, HD 101501. We obtain tight constraints on the stellar rotation period and the evolution of spot distributions using 28 seasons of ground-based photometry, as well as recent Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data. Light-curve inversion was carried out on both photometry data sets to reveal the spot distribution and spot evolution timescales on the star. We find that the >5 m s{sup −1} rms radial velocity variations in HD 101501 are well modeled with a GP stellar activity model without planets, yielding a residual rms scatter of 45 cm s{sup −1}. We carry out simulations, injecting and recovering signals with the GP framework, to demonstrate that high-cadence observations are required to use GPs most efficiently to detect low-mass planets around active stars like HD 101501. Sparse sampling prevents GPs from learning the correlated noise structure and can allow it to absorb prospective Keplerian signals. We quantify the moderate to high-cadence monitoring that provides the necessary information to disentangle photospheric features using GPs and to detect planets around active stars.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Nonthermal Ionization of Kilonova Ejecta: Observable Impacts

The characteristic rapid rise and decline at optical wavelengths of a kilonova is the product of the low ejecta mass (≲0.05 M ⊙ ) and high ejecta velocity (≳0.1c). We show that, even at very early times (≲2 days), regions of ejecta fall below critical density and temperature thresholds at which nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects become important. Here, we present an approximate method for calculating the ionization state of the ejecta that accounts for the NLTE impact of high-energy electrons produced in the beta decay of freshly synthesized r-process elements. We find that incorporating ionization from high-energy electrons produces an “inverted” and “blended” ionization structure, where the most highly ionized species are located in the fastest moving homologous ejecta, and multiple ionization states coexist. In radiation transport calculations, the higher degree of ionization reduces line blanketing in optical bands, leading to improved agreement with the light-curve properties of AT 2017gfo, such as the duration, decay rates, brightness, and colors. Our quasi-NLTE implementation helps to alleviate tensions in kilonova modeling: for high-velocity (∼0.3 c) ejecta components, our models require less mass for a given peak brightness in optical bands, by as much as a factor of 3; our models can explain the presence of observed features associated to Sr II, W III, Se III, and Te III under conditions where LTE models would predict only neutral species; and we naturally predict the coexistence of species like Sr II and Ce III without the need for fine-tuning of the ejecta properties.

High energy astrophysics↗

Probabilistic inversion of circular phase spectra: application to two-station phase-velocity dispersion estimation in western Canada

SUMMARY Periodic directional and temporal measurements are common in seismology, and necessitate specific statistical analyses that are appropriate for circular quantities. In this work, we explore the use of a von Mises distribution as a representation of errors on circular seismological observations. Specifically, we automate the estimation of surface-wave phase-velocity dispersion for the teleseismic two-station method, which generally suffers from a 2π phase ambiguity. The use of Bayesian inverse techniques, which aim to rigorously quantify model parameter uncertainty, have become widespread throughout seismology over the last decade. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion to measurements of surface-wave phase spectra in order to estimate 1-D, path-averaged Earth structure between station pairs. The dispersion curve and associated uncertainties are additional results of the inversion, which can then be used as input for subsequent analyses (e.g. tomography). We demonstrate this technique through application to surface-wave recordings from long-running seismic stations throughout western Canada. Our results for over 10 000 station pairs reveal first-order tectonic features consistent with previous studies, which provides confidence in our approach as well as an initial step towards resolving a full 3-D seismic velocity model for the region. This work also presents a foundation for the inversion of surface-wave phase spectra to estimate 3-D Earth structure directly. Finally, the ideas presented in this work are not limited to the inversion of surface-wave phase spectra, but can also be considered for Bayesian geophysical inversion of any circular quantities.

Gosselin, Jeremy M. (ORCID:0000000203754102)↗

Evaluating Lyman- α constraints for general dark-matter velocity distributions: Multiple scales and cautionary tales

One of the most important observational constraints on possible models of dark-matter physics exploits the Lyman-α absorption spectrum associated with photons traversing the intergalactic medium. Because these data allow us to probe the linear matter power spectrum with great accuracy down to relatively small distance scales, finding ways of accurately evaluating such Lyman-α constraints across large classes of candidate models of dark-matter physics is of paramount importance. While such Lyman-α constraints have been evaluated for dark-matter models that give rise to relatively simple dark-matter velocity distributions, more complex models—particularly those whose dark-matter velocity distributions stretch across multiple scales—have recently been receiving increasing attention. In this paper, we undertake a study of the Lyman-α constraints associated with general dark-matter velocity distributions. Although such Lyman-α constraints are difficult to evaluate in principle, in practice there currently exist two classes of methods in the literature through which such constraints can be recast into forms which are easier to evaluate and which therefore allow a more rapid determination of whether a given dark-matter model is ruled in or out. Accordingly, we utilize both of these recasts in order to determine the Lyman-α bounds on different classes of dark-matter velocity distributions. Here we also develop a general method by which the results of these different recasts can be compared. For relatively simple dark-matter velocity distributions, we demonstrate that these two classes of recasts tend to align and give similar results. However, we find that the situation is far more complex for distributions involving multiple velocity scales: while these two classes of recasts continue to yield similar results within certain regions of parameter space, they nevertheless yield dramatically different results within precisely those regions of parameter space which are likely to be phenomenologically relevant. This, then, serves as a cautionary tale regarding the use of such recasts for complex dark-matter velocity distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗