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At least 271 records · Page 15

Potential for Monitoring Snow Cover in Boreal Forests by Combining MODIS Snow Cover and AMSR-E SWE Maps

Monitoring of snow cover extent and snow water equivalent (SWE) in boreal forests is important for determining the amount of potential runoff and beginning date of snowmelt. The great expanse of the boreal forest necessitates the use of satellite measurements to monitor snow cover. Snow cover in the boreal forest can be mapped with either the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) microwave instrument. The extent of snow cover is estimated from the MODIS data and SWE is estimated from the AMSR-E. Environmental limitations affect both sensors in different ways to limit their ability to detect snow in some situations. Forest density, snow wetness, and snow depth are factors that limit the effectiveness of both sensors for snow detection. Cloud cover is a significant hindrance to monitoring snow cover extent Using MODIS but is not a hindrance to the use of the AMSR-E. These limitations could be mitigated by combining MODIS and AMSR-E data to allow for improved interpretation of snow cover extent and SWE on a daily basis and provide temporal continuity of snow mapping across the boreal forest regions in Canada. The purpose of this study is to investigate if temporal monitoring of snow cover using a combination of MODIS and AMSR-E data could yield a better interpretation of changing snow cover conditions. The MODIS snow mapping algorithm is based on snow detection using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to enhance snow detection in dense vegetation. (Other spectral threshold tests are also used to map snow using MODIS.) Snow cover under a forest canopy may have an effect on the NDVI thus we use the NDVI in snow detection. A MODIS snow fraction product is also generated but not used in this study. In this study the NDSI and NDVI components of the snow mapping algorithm were calculated and analyzed to determine how they changed through the seasons. A blended snow product, the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA (ANSA) snow algorithm and product has recently been developed. The ANSA algorithm blends the MODIS snow cover and AMSR-E SWE products into a single snow product that has been shown to improve the performance of snow cover mapping. In this study components of the ANSA snow algorithm are used along with additional MODIS data to monitor daily changes in snow cover over the period of 1 February to 30 June 2008.

Riggs, George A.↗

Assessment of the Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper Products at the Spring Program and Summer Experiment

Since 2010, the de facto Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) demonstration product has been the Pseudo‐Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) product suite. Originally prepared for the Hazardous Weather Testbed's Spring Program (specifically the Experimental Warning Program) when only four ground‐based lightning mapping arrays were available, the effort now spans collaborations with several institutions and eight collaborative networks. For 2013, NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory have worked to collaborate with each network to obtain data in real‐time. This has gone into producing the SPoRT variant of the PGLM that was demonstrated in AWIPS II for the 2013 Spring Program. Alongside the PGLM products, the SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool also was evaluated to assess not just another visualization of future GLM data but how to best extract more information while in the operational environment. Specifically, this tool addressed the leading request by forecasters during evaluations; provide a time series trend of total lightning in real‐time. In addition to the Spring Program, SPoRT is providing the PGLM "mosaic" to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Storm Prediction Center. This is the same as what is used at the Hazardous Weather Testbed, but combines all available networks into one display for use at the national centers. This year, the mosaic was evaluated during the AWC's Summer Experiment. An important distinction between this and the Spring Program is that the Summer Experiment focuses on the national center perspective and not at the local forecast office level. Specifically, the Summer Experiment focuses on aviation needs and concerns and brings together operational forecaster, developers, and FAA representatives. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of SPoRT's pseudo‐GLM products in these separate test beds. The emphasis will be on how future GLM observations can support operations at both the local and national scale and how the PGLM was used in combination with other lightning data sets. Evaluations for the PGLM were quite favorable with forecasters appreciating the high temporal resolution, the ability to look for rapid increases in lightning activity ahead of severe weather, as well as situational awareness for where convection is firing and for flight routing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The North Alabama Lightning Warning Product

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array NALMA has been collecting total lightning data on storms in the Tennessee Valley region since 2001. Forecasters from nearby National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been ingesting this data for display with other AWIPS products. The current lightning product used by the offices is the lightning source density plot. The new product provides a probabalistic, short-term, graphical forecast of the probability of lightning activity occurring at 5 min intervals over the next 30 minutes . One of the uses of the current lightning source density product by the Huntsville National Weather Service Office is to identify areas of potential for cloud-to-ground flashes based on where LMA total lightning is occurring. This product quantifies that observation. The Lightning Warning Product is derived from total lightning observations from the Washington, D.C. (DCLMA) and North Alabama Lightning Mapping Arrays and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Probability predictions are provided for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes. The gridded product can be displayed on AWIPS workstations in a manner similar to that of the lightning source density product.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗

Manganese Oxidation States in Volcanic Soils across Annual Rainfall Gradients

Manganese (Mn) exists as Mn(II), Mn(III), or Mn(IV) in soils, and the Mn oxidation state controls the roles of Mn in numerous environmental processes. However, the variations of Mn oxidation states with climate remain unknown. Here we determined the Mn oxidation states in highly weathered bulk volcanic soils (primary minerals free) across two rainfall gradients covering mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 0.25–5 m in the Hawaiian Islands. With increasing MAP, the soil redox conditions generally shifted from oxic to suboxic and to anoxic despite fluctuating at each site; concurrently, the proportions of Mn(IV) and Mn(II) decreased and increased, respectively. Mn(III) was low at both low and high MAP, but accumulated substantially, up to 80% of total Mn, in soils with prevalent suboxic conditions at intermediate MAP. Mn(III) was likely hosted in Mn(III,IV) and iron(III) oxides or complexed with organic matter, and its distribution among these hosts varied with soil redox potentials and soil pH. Soil redox conditions and rainfall-driven leaching jointly controlled exchangeable Mn(II) in soils, with its concentration peaking at intermediate MAP. The Mn redox chemistry was at disequilibrium, with the oxidation states correlating with long-term average soil redox potentials better than with soil pH. The soil redox conditions likely fluctuated between oxic and anoxic conditions more frequently at intermediate than at low and high MAP, creating biogeochemical hot spots where Mn, Fe, and other redox-sensitive elements may be actively cycled.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Geological and environmental applications of the ERTS data

The significant results from geological investigations made with the aid of the ERTS spacecraft can be grouped into four broad categories: mapping, land form analysis, structural studies, and the search for mineral deposits. Illustrations of how ERTS has been used in such studies are given, including photomosaics of Nevada and of southern Morocco, and a photogeological interpretation of the Rhodesian craton. Environmental applications of ERTS are illustrated by an ERTS update of an Indiana strip mine map, an ERTS image of Lake Michigan showing particulate plumes and their effect on the weather, and an image of the New York Bight area showing the location and extent of an acid-iron wastes dump and a sewage sludge dump.

Schnetzler, C. C.↗

Low cost planetary science missions

The use of existing earth-orbiting satellite technology represents a potential way of fulfilling important planetary exploration goals at greatly reduced cost, at least within the region between Venus and the inner asteroid belt. The present paper reports three studies of options for such missions to near-earth asteroids, the moon and Mars. The asteroid mission projected would be that of a rendezvous with either Anteros or Eros for purposes of resource determination, using an adaptation of the Tiros-N weather satellite. Two parallel studies were done on geoscience orbiters intended to provide detailed composition mapping from low polar orbit of the moon and Mars based on the modification of the same spacecraft design: the FLTSATCOM spacecraft, and the Atmospheric Explorer/Dynamics Explorer (later changed to Tiros for combined moon-Mars missions). Studies have shown the major modifications required to involve the telecommunications, data handling, power, propulsion and attitude control subsystems, and have demonstrated concept feasibility.

French, J. R.↗

Spaceborne Radar Would Measure Rain And Clouds

Report describes conceptual design of spaceborne radar system mapping precipitation and clouds at mid-latitudes to provide data for research on global weather and climate. Radar operates at two frequencies. Lower (35 GHz) provides vertical profiles of rainfall at rates up to 20 mm/h and enables probing of cirrus clouds. Higher (94 GHz) enables detection and quantitative measurements of clouds of all types and provides rain profiles at rates up to 10 mm/h.

Im, Eastwood↗

The HYDROS mission: requirements and baseline system design

The HYDROS mission is under development by NASA as part of its Earth System Science Pathfinder program. HYDROS is designed to provide global maps of the Earth's soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every 2-3 days, for weather and climate prediction, water and carbon cycle studies, natural hazards monitoring, and national security applications.

radar↗

The HYDROS Mission: Requirements and Baseline System Design

The HYDROS mission is under development by NASA as part of its Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program. HYDROS is designed to provide global maps of the Earth's soil moisture and freezel/thaw state every 2-3 days, for weather and climate prediction, water and carbon cycle studies, natural hazards monitoring, and national security applications. HYDROS uses a unique active and passive L-band microwave system that optimizes measurement accuracy, spatial resolution, and coverage. It provides measurements in nearly all weather conditions, regardless of solar illumination. The designs of the radar and radiometer electronics, antenna feedhorn and reflector, and science data system, are driven by specific mission and science objectives. These objectives impose requirements on the frequencies, polarizations, sampling, spatial resolution, and accuracy of the system. In this paper we describe the HYDROS mission requirements, baseline design, and measurement capabilities.

soil moisture↗

Web-Based Real-Time Emergency Monitoring

The Web-based Real-Time Asset Monitoring (RAM) module for emergency operations and facility management enables emergency personnel in federal agencies and local and state governments to monitor and analyze data in the event of a natural disaster or other crisis that threatens a large number of people and property. The software can manage many disparate sources of data within a facility, city, or county. It was developed on industry-standard Geo- Spatial software and is compliant with open GIS standards. RAM View can function as a standalone system, or as an integrated plugin module to Emergency Operations Center (EOC) software suites such as REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), thus ensuring the widest possible distribution among potential users. RAM has the ability to monitor various data sources, including streaming data. Many disparate systems are included in the initial suite of supported hardware systems, such as mobile GPS units, ambient measurements of temperature, moisture and chemical agents, flow meters, air quality, asset location, and meteorological conditions. RAM View displays real-time data streams such as gauge heights from the U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations, flood crests from the National Weather Service, and meteorological data from numerous sources. Data points are clearly visible on the map interface, and attributes as specified in the user requirements can be viewed and queried.

Harvey, Craig A.↗

Total Lightning as an Indicator of Mesocyclone Behavior

Apparent relationship between total lightning (in-cloud and cloud to ground) and severe weather suggests its operational utility. Goal of fusion of total lightning with proven tools (i.e., radar lightning algorithms. Preliminary work here investigates circulation from Weather Suveilance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) coupled with total lightning data from Lightning Mapping Arrays.

Stough, Sarah M.↗

Daily Kilometer-Scale MODIS Satellite Maps of PM2.5 Describe Wintertime Episodes

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suffers from severe health-endangering episodes of PM2.5 aerosol loadings in wintertime; episodes last approximately 5 days and differ in geographical distribution and composition. PM2.5 stations are scattered; consequently the use of remote sensing to map variable regional patterns of these varying respirable aerosol concentrations is desirable. High-precision AOT retrievals can capture column particulate loading. However,PM2.5 mapping is challenging due to several reasons: particularly thin mixed layers (ML) and thus relatively low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) close to current measurement limits, variable and a typical composition of the aerosols, and complex surface bidirectional reflectance. However, the West does present some advantages in analysis. Air basins are isolated from long-distance transport, and experience predominant strong meteorological subsidence. Thus these Western basin regions have fewer problematic cases of overriding aerosol layers detached from the surface. To counter such local overriding, Chu et al. have described an approach for the Eastern US, and He et al have described a synoptic classification approach useful in Shanghai. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) expands our experience with the use of AOT, with lower PM2.5 and several isolated sub-basins. We have prepared daily maps of episodes in each region. We present also a sequence of increasingly detailed statistical models, AOT initially appears to contribute little information; however, inclusion of weather information reveals its utility. Lyapustin and Wang's MultiAngle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrieval for AOT provided the most useful operational remote sensing information for these regions. It provides high (1-km) spatial resolution maps and a high percentage of availability. Empirical regression methods have found that random effects regression models (aka mixed effects models, ME) employing AOT provide good estimates of ground PM2.5 concentrations.Here, we attempt to extend these methods and evaluate the usefulness of AOT with greater physical analysis, based on DISCOVER-AQ4 experience.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

A Modeling Approach to Global Land Surface Monitoring with Low Resolution Satellite Imaging

The effects of changing land use/land cover on global climate and ecosystems due to greenhouse gas emissions and changing energy and nutrient exchange rates are being addressed by federal programs such as NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) and by international efforts such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP). The quantification of these effects depends on accurate estimates of the global extent of critical land cover types such as fire scars in tropical savannas and ponds in Arctic tundra. To address the requirement for accurate areal estimates, methods for producing regional to global maps with satellite imagery are being developed. The only practical way to produce maps over large regions of the globe is with data of coarse spatial resolution, such as Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) weather satellite imagery at 1.1 km resolution or European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) radar imagery at 100 m resolution. The accuracy of pixel counts as areal estimates is in doubt, especially for highly fragmented cover types such as fire scars and ponds. Efforts to improve areal estimates from coarse resolution maps have involved regression of apparent area from coarse data versus that from fine resolution in sample areas, but it has proven difficult to acquire sufficient fine scale data to develop the regression. A method for computing accurate estimates from coarse resolution maps using little or no fine data is therefore needed.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗

Simulated Feasibility of 3-D Lightning Mapping From Space

In addition to the awe it inspires, lightning can illuminate the microphysical processes hidden away within deep convection. The current generation of space-based lightning mapping uses mostly 2-D optical imaging to connect overall flash characteristics to their parent storm dynamics, but are missing a dimension’s worth of information. With lightning now classified as an essential climate variable, future spaceborne mappers will need improved capabilities to take advantage of the 3-D structure of lightning flashes to support meteorological and climate modeling. We report here on a study of the feasibility of high-resolution 3-D lightning mapping using a radio frequency (RF)-based network of satellites from low-Earth orbit (LEO). Lightning sources are simulated using existing lightning mapping array (LMA) tools, modified for orbital detection, and spatially reconstructed using a Levenberg–Marquardt geolocation algorithm to assess sources of uncertainty in these solutions. We analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach compared to existing orbital and ground-based methods. Results of this study show that lightning can be mapped in 3-D with a vertical location accuracy better than 2 km using as few as five satellites in LEO capable of measuring the time-of-arrival of impulsive RF signals in the very high-frequency (VHF) band. The consequence of this study is that high-resolution, spaceborne 3-D mapping of lightning is achievable across most of the globe, having crucial implications for our understanding of not only lightning, but also severe weather development, climate science, and more.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗