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At least 271 records · Page 15

Comparative Analysis of Radial and Random Microstructures of Mesophase Pitch Carbon Fibers

Carbon fibers (CF) with radial and random microstructures are produced. Here, these fibers are subjected to identical treatment before being mechanically tested and analyzed with Weibull analysis, with the results revealing a statistically significant difference in tensile strengths of 2.23 GPa for random CF and 1.69 GPa for radial CF. Raman mapping probed the crystalline structure perpendicular to the fiber axis and found a uniform structure, while wide‐angle X‐ray diffraction showed a significant difference of 7.5 Å in the crystallites’ basal lengths parallel to the fiber. Small‐angle X‐ray scattering is completed parallel to the fiber for the first time. A cross‐section Guinier plot of the 1D azimuthal integration is generated assuming symmetric scattering, and the parallel scatterers are found to have a similar length scale to the crystallite's length, validating the testing method. Finally, transmission electron microscopy is completed on the longitudinal cross‐section of each fiber. The radial carbon fiber is found to have a core–shell structure, as evidenced further by fast Fourier transform images. Through all studies, it is shown that the structure developed during mesophase pitch spinning altered the microstructure, thus impacting the mechanical properties, confirming a direct relationship between processing, structure, and properties.

Scherschel, Alexander [Univ. of Virginia, Charlott↗

Dual particle imaging using time-of-flight neutron classification

Fast-neutron imaging technology is well-suited for passive nuclear material monitoring, secondary inspection of flagged cargo, and wide-area search for lost neutron sources. However, imaging systems that use pulse shape discrimination for event classification require complex pulse waveform analysis. In this work, we evaluate time-of-flight (TOF) based particle classification as an alternative solution for fast-neutron imaging by classifying all events with a TOF above a maximum threshold as neutrons. We measured a Cf-252 source next to Cs-137 using a 12-bar organic-glass scintillator array. By varying the TOF thresholds for neutron identification, we demonstrate a clear trade-off between event yield and backprojection image fidelity, with stricter thresholds improving precision at the cost of statistics, TOF thresholded data generated an image that predicted the neutron source direction with 20% reduced mean central angle prediction error compared to a traditional pulse shape discrimination (PSD) method with comparable event count. Time-of-flight particle classification shows promise as an alternative to pulse shape discrimination systems for fast neutron imaging systems looking to minimize costs and size of electronics with comparable imaging quality. The sources used demonstrate that the method is effective in classifying measured neutrons in a measurement environment with 150 μCi Cs-137 and 1.6 × 10 6 n/s Cf-252 sources positioned at distances of 66 cm and 81 cm from the detector. Additionally, the method classifies low-energy neutron events that pulse shape discrimination removes, so a combination of both methods would result in a higher overall neutron event efficiency.

Heriot, William [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Analysis of High-Order Modes in SRF Resonators for Particle Accelerators

Over the past decades, superconducting technology has rapidly evolved towards high accelerating gradients and low surface resistance, making it possible to operate particle accelerators with high average beam currents and large duty factors. However, RF losses due to coherent excitation of the HOM become the limiting factor for these regimes. Unlike the cavity operating mode, which is tuned separately, the HOM parameters can significantly vary from one cavity to another due to finite mechanical tolerances during the manufacturing process. Thus, it is of utmost importance to know the HOM parameter spread in advance in order to predict unexpected cryogenic losses, overheating of beam line components and maintain stable beam dynamics. In this paper, we present a method for generating cavity geometry with an arbitrary spread of mechanical imperfections and numerically evaluating HOM statistics. Knowing the spread of HOM parameters, we calculated the probability of resonant HOM losses in SRF accelerating cavities used in CW beam current machines such as the PIP-II and LCLS-II linacs, as well as for the SRF crab-cavity for the ILC project. Finally, we present experimental results of HOM spectra measurements in hundreds of 1.3 GHz cavities installed in LCLS-II cryomodules. Studying the effects of HOM excitation results in specifications of the SRF cavity and cryomodule and can significantly impact the efficiency and reliability of the machine operation.

Lunin, Andrei [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000290096792)↗

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Two datasets are better than one: method of double moments for 3D reconstruction in cryo-EM

Cryo-electron microscopy is a powerful imaging technique for reconstructing three-dimensional molecular structures from noisy tomographic projection images of randomly oriented particles. We introduce a new data fusion framework, termed the method of double moments, which reconstructs molecular structures from two instances of the second-order moment of projection images obtained under distinct orientation distributions: one uniform, the other non-uniform and unknown. We prove that these moments generically uniquely determine the underlying structure, up to a global rotation and reflection, and we develop a convex-relaxation-based algorithm that achieves accurate recovery using only second-order statistics. Our results demonstrate the advantage of collecting and modeling multiple datasets under different experimental conditions, illustrating that leveraging dataset diversity can substantially enhance reconstruction quality in computational imaging tasks.

Kam’s method↗

Moments of parton distribution functions of the pion from lattice QCD using gradient flow

We present a nonperturbative determination of the pion valence parton distribution function (PDF) moment ratios ⟨𝑥 𝑛−1 ⟩/⟨𝑥⟩ up to 𝑛 = 6, using the gradient flow in lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). As a testing ground, we employ SU(3) isosymmetric gauge configurations generated by the OpenLat initiative with a pseudoscalar mass of 𝑚 𝜋 ≃ 411 MeV. Our analysis uses four lattice spacings and a nonperturbatively improved action, enabling full control over the continuum extrapolation, and the limit of vanishing flow time, 𝑡 →0. The flowed ratios exhibit O(𝑎 2 ) scaling across the ensembles, and the continuum-extrapolated results, matched to the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 𝜇 = 2 GeV using next-to-next-to-leading order matching coefficients, show only mild residual flow-time dependence. The resulting ratios, computed with a relatively small number of configurations, are consistent with phenomenological expectations for the pion’s valence distribution, with statistical uncertainties that are competitive with modern global fits. These findings demonstrate that the gradient flow provides an efficient and systematically improvable method to access partonic quantities from first principles. Future extensions of this work will target lighter pion masses toward the physical point, and applications to nucleon structure such as the proton PDFs and the gluon and sea-quark distributions.

lattice QCD↗

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL↗

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Extension, Volume I: Final Technical Report

The IMMPE project, DE-FE0032284, was to enhance methane monitoring technologies and their applications across various natural gas asset classes. The scope included deploying advanced methane detection and monitoring technologies to identify and mitigate fugitive methane emissions, measuring emission rates, and assessing impacts. The findings included the successful mitigation of identified emissions and quantification of emission rates. A key outcome was the development of a comprehensive template and summary of recommendations for methane emissions monitoring, which is replicable for both upstream and downstream applications. Furthermore, the project emphasized the importance of education by providing training opportunities for technicians and regulators, thereby fostering awareness and promoting the adoption of cost-effective methane emissions monitoring and management techniques.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗

Block Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD spectroscopy and matrix elements

Recent work introduced a new framework for analyzing correlation functions with improved convergence and signal-to-noise properties, as well as rigorous quantification of excited-state effects, based on the Lanczos algorithm and spurious eigenvalue filtering with the Cullum-Willoughby test. Here, we extend this framework to the analysis of correlation-function matrices built from multiple interpolating operators in lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) by constructing an oblique generalization of the block Lanczos algorithm, as well as a new physically motivated reformulation of the Cullum-Willoughby test that generalizes to block Lanczos straightforwardly. The resulting block Lanczos method directly extends generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) methods, which can be viewed as applying a single iteration of block Lanczos. Block Lanczos provides qualitative and quantitative advantages over GEVP methods analogous to the benefits of Lanczos over the standard effective mass, including faster convergence to ground- and excited-state energies, explicitly computable two-sided error bounds, straightforward extraction of matrix elements of external currents, and asymptotically constant signal-to-noise. No fits or statistical inference are required. Proof-of-principle calculations are performed for noiseless mock-data examples as well as two-by-two proton correlation-function matrices in lattice QCD.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Biopolymer-Templated Titania Film Formation for Nanostructured Coatings Revealed by Machine Learning-Supported Time-Resolved Analysis

This study presents a machine learning approach to derive the film formation of biopolymer-templated titania nanostructures during spray deposition, in combination with in situ grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS). A neural network trained on synthetic GISAXS data directly predicts domain-size distributions from experimental two-dimensional scattering patterns, capturing the full kinetics of nanostructure evolution with high temporal resolution. The predictions reveal hierarchical size distributions and periodic growth features, consistent with layer-by-layer spray deposition and validated by complementary scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging. Quantitative comparison with conventional parametric GISAXS fits shows good qualitative agreement, with systematic differences explained by domain-shape assumptions and resolved by applying a geometric scaling factor. Simulated SEM-like surfaces derived from neural network outputs reproduce the porous, foam-like nanoscale morphology observed experimentally, reinforcing the method’s credibility. This integrated approach enables real-time, nondestructive, statistically averaged monitoring of bulk nanostructure development in functional coatings, offering a scalable methodology to accelerate the characterization and process control of sustainably manufactured nanostructured titania films for energy-related applications such as photocatalysis and photovoltaics.

Heger, JulianEliah↗