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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

Atmospheric response to variations in sea-surface temperature

A two-week prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data set beginning 20 December 1972 to test the sensitivity of the model to sea-surface temperature (SST) variations. Use of observed SST's in place of climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a marked local effect on predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection over warm SST anomalies. However, use of observed SST's did not lead to any detectable general improvement in forecast skill. The influence of the SST anomalies on daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential was small up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea-level pressure and 500 mb height predicted by the model were similarly insensitive to the SST anomalies.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stress field rotation or block rotation: An example from the Lake Mead fault system

The Coulomb criterion, as applied by Anderson (1951), has been widely used as the basis for inferring paleostresses from in situ fault slip data, assuming that faults are optimally oriented relative to the tectonic stress direction. Consequently if stress direction is fixed during deformation so must be the faults. Freund (1974) has shown that faults, when arranged in sets, must generally rotate as they slip. Nur et al., (1986) showed how sufficiently large rotations require the development of new sets of faults which are more favorably oriented to the principal direction of stress. This leads to the appearance of multiple fault sets in which older faults are offset by younger ones, both having the same sense of slip. Consequently correct paleostress analysis must include the possible effect of fault and material rotation, in addition to stress field rotation. The combined effects of stress field rotation and material rotation were investigated in the Lake Meade Fault System (LMFS) especially in the Hoover Dam area. Fault inversion results imply an apparent 60 degrees clockwise (CW) rotation of the stress field since mid-Miocene time. In contrast structural data from the rest of the Great Basin suggest only a 30 degrees CW stress field rotation. By incorporating paleomagnetic and seismic evidence, the 30 degrees discrepancy can be neatly resolved. Based on paleomagnetic declination anomalies, it is inferred that slip on NW trending right lateral faults caused a local 30 degrees counter-clockwise (CCW) rotation of blocks and faults in the Lake Mead area. Consequently the inferred 60 degrees CW rotation of the stress field in the LMFS consists of an actual 30 degrees CW rotation of the stress field (as for the entire Great Basin) plus a local 30 degrees CCW material rotation of the LMFS fault blocks.

Ron, Hagai↗
NASA NTRS1994

Albedo as a modulator of climate response to tropical deforestation

An atmospheric general circulation model with land surface properties represented by the simplified Simple Biosphere model is used to investigate the effects on local climate due to tropical deforestation for the Amazon basin. One control and three anomaly integrations of 4 years' duration are performed. In the anomaly integrations, rain forest in South America is replaced by degraded grassland. The anomaly integrations differ only in the optical properties of the grassland vegetation, with net surface albedos ranging from the same as to 0.09 lighter than that of rain forest. It is found that the change in climate, particularly rainfall, is strongly dependent on the change in surface albedo that accompanies deforestation. Replacement of forest by grass causes a reduction in transpiration and reduces frictional convergence by decreasing surface roughness. However, precipitation averaged over the deforested area is not necessarily reduced. Average precipitation decreases when the increase in albedo is greater than 0.03. If surface albedo is not increased appreciably as a result of deforestation, moisture flux convergence driven by the increase in surface temperature can offset the other effects, and average precipitation increases. As albedo is increased, surface temperature does not change, but surface latent and sensible heat flux decreases due to reduced radiational energy absorbed at the surface, resulting in a reduction in convection and precipitation. A change in the distribution of precipitation due to deforestation that appears to be independent of the albedo is observed.

Dirmeyer, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Heating Configuration and Operating Parameters on Heat Transfer and Interfacial Physics of Microgravity Flow Boiling With Subcooled Inlet Conditions –Experiments Onboard the International Space Station

This study is part of the Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE), a collaborative effort between the Purdue University Boiling and Two-Phase Flow Laboratory (PU-BTPFL) and the NASA Glenn Research Center. The FBCE fitted with the Flow Boiling Module (FBM) was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in August 2021 and experiments were successfully performed from February to July 2022 to amass a large microgravity-flow-boiling database. This study is focused on heat transfer and flow visualization of microgravity flow boiling of n-Perfluorohexane in a rectangular channel of 5.0 mm height, 2.5 mm width (heated), and 114.6 mm length, with subcooled inlet conditions. High-speed-video photography is utilized to present flow patterns and temporal interfacial behavior. Heat transfer results are presented in the form of flow boiling curves and both parametric curves and streamwise profiles of wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient. Firstly, the parametric effects of mass velocity (199.4 – 3200.0 kg/m 2 s), inlet subcooling (0.2 – 46.0°C), and inlet pressure (124.2 – 176.7 kPa), on the aforementioned aspects are assessed for double-sided heating to establish them for a microgravity environment. Of these three parameters, mass velocity and inlet subcooling mostly determine the microgravity flow boiling behavior, while inlet pressure plays an insignificant role. Flow patterns for double-sided heating are more complex than those for single-sided heating due to interaction between the two vapor layers. Vapor interaction is minimized at high subcoolings and high mass velocities due to strong condensation offered by the subcooled bulk liquid layer separating them. Despite the different flow patterns, both single- and double-sided heating generally result in similar parametric trends and local heat transfer coefficients for similar operating conditions. Flow instabilities manifest as temporal flow anomalies and temperature oscillations, and their severity increases with increasing boiling number. Secondly, the effects of heating configuration are analyzed by comparing and contrasting several aspects of single- and double-sided heating data. The heat fluxes at which onset of nucleate boiling degradation (ONBD) and critical heat flux (CHF) occur are distinctly different for single- and double-sided heating. There exists a threshold inlet subcooling demarcating the dominance of flow acceleration and condensation effects in vapor removal from the near-wall region and replenishment of fresh liquid for boiling. Above the threshold, condensation from the near-wall region is dominant and single-sided heating yields higher heat fluxes, and below it, acceleration is dominant and double-sided yields higher heat fluxes. At mass velocity in the range of 200 – 2400 kg/m 2 s, the threshold inlet subcooling lies in the approximate range of 20 – 30°C (corresponding inlet quality of roughly -0.40 – -0.20).

Microgravity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher-Form Anomalies on Lattices

We show that generic gapped quantum many-body states which respect an anomalous finite higher-form symmetry have an exponentially small overlap with any short-range entangled (SRE) state. Hence, anomalies of higher-form symmetries enforce $intrinsic$ long-range entanglement, which is in contrast with anomalies of ordinary (0-form) symmetries which are compatible with symmetric SRE states (specifically, symmetric cat states). As an application, we show that the anomalies of strong higher-form symmetries provide a diagnostic for mixed-state topological order in $d \geq 2$ spatial dimensions. We also identify a new (3+1)D intrinsic mixed-state topological order that does not obey remote-detectability by local decoherence of the (3+1)D Toric Code with fermionic loop excitations. This breakdown of remote detectability, as encoded in anomalies of strong higher-form symmetries, provides a partial characterization of intrinsically mixed-state topological order.

Feng, Yitao [Peking University, Beijing (China)] (↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evidence for active hotspots on Venus from analysis of Magellan gravity data

The 500-Myr average crater retention age for Venus has raised questions about the present-day level of tectonic activity. In this study we examine the relationship between the gravity and topography of four large volcanic swells, Beta, Atla, Bell, and Western Eistla Regiones, for clues about their stage evolution. The Magellan line-of-sight gravity data are inverted using a point mass model of the anomalous mass to solve for the local vertical gravity field. Spectral admittance calculated from both the local gravity inversions and a spherical harmonic model is compared to three models of compensation: local compensation, a 'flexural' model with local and regional compensation of surface and subsurface loads, and a 'hotspot' model of compensation that includes top loading by volcanoes and subsurface loading due to a deep, low density mass anomaly. The coherence is also calculated in each region, but yields an elastic thickness estimate only at Bell Regio. In all models, the long wavelengths are compensated locally. Our results may indicate a relatively old, possibly inactive plume.

Smrekar, Suzanne E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection System for Online Data Quality Monitoring of the CMS Electromagnetic Calorimeter

The CMS detector is a general-purpose apparatus that detects high-energy collisions produced at the LHC. Online data quality monitoring of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter is a vital operational tool that allows detector experts to quickly identify, localize, and diagnose a broad range of detector issues that could affect the quality of physics data. A real-time autoencoder-based anomaly detection system using semi-supervised machine learning is presented enabling the detection of anomalies in the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter data. A novel method is introduced which maximizes the anomaly detection performance by exploiting the time-dependent evolution of anomalies as well as spatial variations in the detector response. The autoencoder-based system is able to efficiently detect anomalies, while maintaining a very low false discovery rate. The performance of the system is validated with anomalies found in 2018 and 2022 LHC collision data. In addition, the first results from deploying the autoencoder-based system in the CMS online data quality monitoring workflow during the beginning of Run 3 of the LHC are presented, showing its ability to detect issues missed by the existing system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1972

Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

Allison, L. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous mantle effects on the behavior of SmKS waves and outermost core imaging

Seismic traveltime anomalies of waves that traverse the uppermost 100–200 km of the outer core have been interpreted as evidence of reduced seismic velocities (relative to radial reference models) just below the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These studies typically investigate differential traveltimes of SmKS waves, which propagate as P waves through the shallowest outer core and reflect from the underside of the CMB m times. The use of SmKS and S(m-1)KS differential traveltimes for core imaging are often assumed to suppress contributions from earthquake location errors and unknown and unmodelled seismic velocity heterogeneity in the mantle. The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which differential SmKS traveltimes are, in fact, affected by anomalous mantle structure, potentially including both velocity heterogeneity and anisotropy. Velocity variations affect not only a wave's traveltime, but also the path of a wave, which can be observed in deviations of the wave's incoming direction. Since radial velocity variations in the outer core will only minimally affect the wave path, in contrast to other potential effects, measuring the incoming direction of SmKS waves provides an additional diagnostic as to the origin of traveltime anomalies. Here we use arrays of seismometers to measure traveltime and direction anomalies of SmKS waves that sample the uppermost outer core. We form subarrays of EarthScope's regional Transportable Array stations, thus measuring local variations in traveltime and direction. We observe systematic lateral variations in both traveltime and incoming wave direction, which cannot be explained by changes to the radial seismic velocity profile of the outer core. Moreover, we find a correlation between incoming wave direction and traveltime anomaly, suggesting that observed traveltime anomalies may be caused, at least in part, by changes to the wave path and not solely by perturbations in outer core velocity. Modelling of 1-D ray and 3-D wave propagation in global 3-D tomographic models of mantle velocity anomalies match the trend of the observed traveltime anomalies. Overall, we demonstrate that observed SmKS traveltime anomalies may have a significant contribution from 3-D mantle structure, and not solely from outer core structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous mantle effects on the behavior of SmKS waves and outermost core imaging

Seismic traveltime anomalies of waves that traverse the uppermost 100–200 km of the outer core have been interpreted as evidence of reduced seismic velocities (relative to radial reference models) just below the core–mantle boundary (CMB). These studies typically investigate differential traveltimes of SmKS waves, which propagate as P waves through the shallowest outer core and reflect from the underside of the CMB m times. The use of SmKS and S(m- 1)KS differential traveltimes for core imaging are often assumed to suppress contributions from earthquake location errors and unknown and unmodelled seismic velocity heterogeneity in the mantle. The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which differential SmKS traveltimes are, in fact, affected by anomalous mantle structure, potentially including both velocity heterogeneity and anisotropy. Velocity variations affect not only a wave’s traveltime, but also the path of a wave, which can be observed in deviations of the wave’s incoming direction. Since radial velocity variations in the outer core will only minimally affect the wave path, in contrast to other potential effects, measuring the incoming direction of SmKS waves provides an additional diagnostic as to the origin of traveltime anomalies. Here we use arrays of seismometers to measure traveltime and direction anomalies of SmKS waves that sample the uppermost outer core. We form subarrays of EarthScope’s regional Transportable Array stations, thus measuring local variations in traveltime and direction. We observe systematic lateral variations in both traveltime and incoming wave direction, which cannot be explained by changes to the radial seismic velocity profile of the outer core. Moreover, we find a correlation between incoming wave direction and traveltime anomaly, suggesting that observed traveltime anomalies may be caused, at least in part, by changes to the wave path and not solely by perturbations in outer core velocity. Modelling of 1-D ray and 3-D wave propagation in global 3-D tomographic models of mantle velocity anomalies match the trend of the observed traveltime anomalies. Overall, we demonstrate that observed SmKS traveltime anomalies may have a significant contribution from 3-D mantle structure, and not solely from outer core structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea Surface Salinity Reemergence in an Updated North Atlantic In Situ Salinity Dataset

Monthly sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are constructed from observations, using objective mapping on a 1° x 1° grid in the Atlantic between 30°S and 50°N in the 1970-2016 period in an update of the dataset of Reverdin et al. Data coverage is heterogeneous, with increased density in 2002 when Argo floats become available, high density along Voluntary Observing Ship lines, and low density south of 10°S. Using lag correlation, the seasonal reemergence of SSS anomalies is investigated between 20° and 50°N in 5° x 5° boxes during the 1993-2016 period, both locally and remotely following the displacements of the deep mixed-layer waters estimated from virtual float trajectories derived from the daily AVISO surface geostrophic currents. Although SSS data are noisy, local SSS reemergence is detected in about half of the boxes, notably in the northeast and southeast, while little reemergence is seen in the central and part of the eastern subtropical gyre. In the same period, sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence is found only slightly more frequently, reflecting the short data duration. However, taking geostrophic advection into account degrades the detection of remote SSS and even SST reemergence. When anomalies are averaged over broader areas, robust evidence of a second and third SSS reemergence peak is found in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the domain, indicating long cold-season persistence of large-scale SSS anomalies, while only a first SST reemergence is seen. Finally, an oceanic reanalysis is used to confirm that the correlation analysis indeed reflects the reemergence of subsurface salinity anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A LaGrangian Perspective of the Surface Energy Budget Contributions to Sea Ice Evolution in the ‘New Arctic’

Recent Arctic warming outpaces global warming and is characterized by dramatic changes in sea ice (record sea ice loss, thinner and more seasonal ice cover), warming SSTs, and a lengthening melt season. These changes impact the surface energy budget and the sensitivity of sea ice to radiative forcing, namely an increased sensitivity of thinner ice to local radiative forcings and a weaker buffering of surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and moisture. However, these processes are a large source of uncertainty in global climate models with prior studies finding that poor representations of downwelling longwave radiation and sea ice albedo lead to model spread in sea ice conditions. A limitation of prior work is examining sea ice-atmosphere interactions through an Eulerian framework. This study utilizes a sea ice parcel dataset in a LaGrangian framework, allowing for tracking of surface energy budget-sea ice interactions over the lifespan of individual sea ice parcels; this framework also allows for the quantification of the sea ice response to episodic weather events along with seasonal drivers, including the drivers of rapid growth and melt events. First, lag-lead relationships between relevant surface energy budget terms and sea ice thickness changes are explored to understand the atmospheric conditions preceding rapid growth and melt. The impact of episodic events- moisture intrusion, warm air outbreaks, cyclones- on sea ice growth are also investigated by stratifying first-year parcels by sea ice thickness at the end of the growth season and analyzing the effect of atmospheric variability (number and intensity of episodic events) on parcel thickness change. Lastly, parcel growth and melt and the associated radiative anomalies are compared to snowfall events/snow thickness to determine how snowfall modifies the interaction between the local surface energy budget and sea ice mass balance.

Patrick Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1978

Investigations of Mars dynamics and geodesy via the Viking spacecraft

Results are reported for analyses of Doppler, ranging, and tracking data from the Viking landers and orbiters of relevance to the dynamics and geodesy of Mars. Highly improved numerical results are given for the orientation of the spin axis of Mars, the planet's sidereal rotation rate, and the earth-Mars ephemeris. A refined definition of the global gravitational field of Mars is discussed, a local gravitational survey based on Viking Orbiter 2 tracking data is described, and a mass anomaly near Olympus Mons is noted. Radius data are examined which suggest an asymmetry in the figure of Mars characterized by generally higher topography in the southern than in the northern hemisphere. The mass of Phobos is determined on the basis of Orbiter 1 orbital perturbations, and the mean density of this Martian satellite is found to be approximately 2.0 g/cu cm, which is suggestive of primitive carbonaceous chondrites and, if true, implies that Phobos was formed in the asteroid belt.

Michael, W. H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Changes in Arctic Melt Season and Implications for Sea Ice Loss

The Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of 5 days dec-1 from 1979 to 2013, dominated by later autumn freeze-up within the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas between 6 and 11 days dec(exp -1). While melt onset trends are generally smaller, the timing of melt onset has a large influence on the total amount of solar energy absorbed during summer. The additional heat stored in the upper ocean of approximately 752MJ m(exp -2) during the last decade, increases sea surface temperatures by 0.5 to 1.5 C and largely explains the observed delays in autumn freeze-up within the Arctic Ocean's adjacent seas. Cumulative anomalies in total absorbed solar radiation from May through September for the most recent pentad locally exceed 300-400 MJ m(exp -2) in the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas. This extra solar energy is equivalent to melting 0.97 to 1.3 m of ice during the summer.

Season↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Moon Burst Energetics All-sky Monitor (MoonBEAM)

MoonBEAM is a SmallSat concept placed in cislunar orbit developed to study the progenitors and multimessenger/multiwavelength signals of transient relativistic jets and outflows and determine the conditions that lead to the launching of a transient relativistic jet. The distinguishing advantage of MoonBEAM is the instantaneous all-sky coverage, maximizing the gamma-ray transients observations and providing upper limits for nondetections. Gamma-ray observatories in low Earth orbit are not able to survey the entire sky at a given time due to Earth blockage as well as detector downtime from the high particle activity in the South Atlantic Anomaly region. The long baseline provided from a cislunar orbit, allows MoonBEAM to constrain the localization annulus when combined with a gamma-ray instrument in low Earth orbit utilizing the timing triangulation technique. Improving the localization precision of a gamma-ray burst aids the gravitational wave follow-up community in reducing the region needed to be searched to locate and identify the afterglow and kilanova emission. Furthermore, by providing a different vantage point for a gamma-ray detection, MoonBEAM can help extend the gravitational wave detection horizon by increasing the confidence of a simultaneous marginal gravitational wave signal. Through the all-sky coverage, MoonBEAM will also provide insight into the conditions that lead to a successful relativistic jet, instead of a shock breakout event, or a completely failed jet in the case of core collapse supernovae.

Gamma-ray Bursts↗
NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear Dry Periods in Southern Africa

Characteristics and physical features related to low precipitation across many years in Southern Africa that lead to societal disruptions are diagnosed using observed analyses and an ensemble of historical coupled climate model simulations during 1921 to 2014. Four regions are evaluated, as identified through a hierarchical clustering algorithm applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during the October–April precipitation season. Although dryness spanning many October–April occurs periodically in each region, they seldom occur simultaneously, consistent with largely insignificant SPI cross-correlations between them. However, characteristics relevant to low precipitation across many years are generalizable between the four regions, including the serial persistence of October–April precipitation, the likelihood of consecutive dry October–April, and the likelihood of dry October–April in temporal extents of up to 10 consecutive such 7-month seasons. Systematic precipitation persistence is not a feature in any of the four Southern Africa regions, as serial correlations of October–April SPI are not statistically significant at any time lags. It follows that there is an exponential-folding decay in the likelihood of consecutive October–April for various SPI thresholds and that there is a large spread in the likelihood of low October–April SPI across many years. In terms of physical features, low October–April SPI in each Southern Africa region is closely related to local atmospheric circulations; however, they are not as closely related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These results suggest that dryness spanning many years is determined primarily by persistent local circulations related to atmospheric variability and to a lesser extent variability related to SST anomalies, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

subtropical Indian Ocean dipole↗
NASA NTRS1991

Potential vorticity index

Based on the European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE) IIIb data set in the 1978 to 1979 winter, a potential vorticity (PV) index was defined as a measure of the zonally averaged, mid-latitude PV gradient on the 300 K isentropic surface in the Northern Hemisphere. The evolution of that index and its relation to teleconnection patterns of 500 mb geopotential height anomaly are studied. The results of the temporal and spatial variation of blocking and cyclogenesis in the 1978 to 1979 winter and its relation to global and local PV gradients were obtained. Complex empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses were performed, using the same FGGE data set for the 1978 to 1979 winter, for a representative high latitude band and mid latitude band geopotential height anomalies at 500 mb, phi sub h, phi sub m, and PV gradient at 300 K, delta(Q), at each longitude for the three month period. The focus of current research is the following: (1) to perform Fourier analyses for the first three EOF's of phi sub h, phi sub m, and delta(Q) at given latitude bands, and to find the dominant wavenumbers and frequencies which are responsible for these EOF's; (2) to compare the results from EOF and Fourier analyses which will be used to explore the relations of blocking and cyclogensis with local and global PV gradients; and (3) to study the time dependence of the local PV gradients and relate it to the PV index vacillation cycles observed in the PV index cycle.

Barcilon, Albert↗