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NASA NTRS2018

A Momentum-Based Indicator for Predicting the Peak Opening Load of Supersonic Parachutes

In this paper, a new empirical indicator for predicting the peak opening loads of supersonic parachutes is presented. The proposed indicator is proportional to twice the free-stream dynamic pressure and the projected area of the parachute, which is equivalent to estimating the opening load as a percentage of the free-stream momentum flux through the projected area at the moment of peak inflation. The form of this expression is motivated by a classical control volume analysis of the aerodynamic forces acting on a parachute during inflation, under the simplifying assumptions of quasi-static and one-dimensional flow. For parachute geometries and flight conditions typical of Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing systems, the largest contribution to the total drag is shown to be a momentum flux term that is associated with the entrainment of atmosphere within the inflating parachute volume. Using this new method, empirical constants are calculated from existing flight reconstruction data and are shown to have a smaller standard deviation than similar constants determined using the customary indicator form, which is based on the steady-state subsonic drag and proportional to the parachute reference area. These empirical constants are also compared to an analytic estimate, derived from the control volume analysis, and shown to have excellent agreement across a wide range of Mach numbers and dynamic pressures for several parachute geometries. While opening loads estimated using both methods produce similar results at low supersonic Mach numbers typical of past inflations, the proposed method predicts notably larger loads at higher Mach numbers, those above Mach 2.0, due to the omission of any Mach Efficiency Factor. Several current Mars EDL projects have adopted this new indicator.

Way, David W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. An inverse estimation of the backshell and heatshield surface aeroheating was performed, using the data from the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs, a network of thermocouples embedded within the thermal protection system across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate, temperature, and heat load to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties. In this paper, a variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to understand the relative contributions of each uncertainty parameter. Performing this analysis using results from the inverse analysis tool FIAT_Opt was found to require incredibly high computation time, and thus machine learning models were trained and evaluated as a surrogate model for FIAT_Opt. This paper demonstrates that machine learning models can be an efficient, accurate alternative to state-of-the-art inverse analysis tools like FIAT_Opt, especially for computationally-expensive processes. Using these models, the sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in heat capacity and thermal conductivity were the main drivers for the overall uncertainty in peak reconstructed heating and heat load.

H S Alpert↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Tomographic Reconstruction of Mercury's Exosphere from MESSENGER Flyby Data

The exosphere of Mercury is among the best-studied examples of a common type of atmosphere, a surface-bounded exosphere. Mercury's exosphere was probed in 2008-2009 with Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) measurements obtained during three planetary flybys by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft [1-3]. The measurements detailed the distribution of two previously known metallic constituents of Mercury's exosphere, Na and Ca, and indicated the presence in the gas phase of yet another metallic species, Mg. Such measurements can answer fundamental scientific questions regarding the relative importance of possible source and loss processes for exospheric species ejected from a surface boundary [4]. The trajectory of MESSENGER during the last of its three flybys provided the best spatial coverage prior to orbit insertion. The measurements by MESSENGER of Na, Ca, and Mg during the third flyby have been analyzed with a novel tomographic method. This approach maximizes the amount of information that can be extracted from line-of-sight measurements because it yields three-dimensional distributions of neutrals consistent with the data.

Killen, Rosemary M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Water Tracers in the Atmospheric Component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Implementation and Changes in Moisture Origin

Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water‐tag‐enabled model for both pre‐industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in the role of mid‐latitude and southern subtropical regions as exporters of atmospheric moisture—to the extratropical upper troposphere and the tropical free troposphere. For the latter, the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone increases cross‐hemispheric transport of subtropical water vapor to the Northern Hemisphere. In the polar regions, most of the lower tropospheric moistening instead arises from increases in local evaporation. These findings illustrate the utility of the water tags, underscore critical changes in global hydrologic cycle, and provide insight into atmospheric dynamics under future climate scenarios. For applications when a global grid is desired, we additionally propose a novel statistical reconstruction, based on copula modeling, of the joint distribution of origin of water vapor, which reduces the number of tracers from order $\mathcal{O}\left({n}^{2}\right)$to order $\mathcal{O}(n)$, substantially ameliorating the considerable computational cost of water tracers. This statistical reconstruction is particularly beneficial to the interpretation of the relationship between latitude and longitude of origin of moisture over the tropical oceans and in the lower troposphere over land.

copula modeling↗

NASA NTRS2012

Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

Swartz, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

STS-13 (41-C) BET products

Results from the STS-13 (41-C) Shuttle entry flight are presented. The entry trajectory was reconstructed from an altitude of 700 kft through rollout on Runway 17 at EAFB. The anchor epoch utilized was April 13, 1984 13(h)1(m)30.(s)0 (46890(s).0) GMT. The final reconstructed inertial trajectory for this flight is BT13M23 under user catalog 169750N. Trajectory reconstruction and Extended BET development are discussed in Section 1 and 2, respectively. The NOAA totem-pole atmosphere extracted from the JSC/TRW BET was adopted in the development of the LaRC Extended BET, namely ST13BET/UN=274885C. The Aerodynamic BET was generated on physical nine track reel NC0728 with a duplicate copy on NC0740 for back-up. Plots of the more relevant parameters from the AEROBET are presented in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the MMLE input files created for STS-13. Appendices are attached which present spacecraft and physical constants utilized (Appendix A), residuals by station and data type (Appendix B), a two second spaced listing of trajectory and air data parameters (Appendix C), and input and output source products for archival (Appendix D).

Findlay, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Increased Snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigated Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise

Changes in accumulated snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet have an immediate and time-delayed impact on global mean sea level. The immediate impact is due to the instantaneous change in freshwater storage over the ice sheet, whereas the time-delayed impact acts in opposition through enhanced ice dynamic flux into the ocean. Here, we reconstruct 200 years of Antarctic-wide snow accumulation by synthesizing a newly compiled database of ice core records using reanalysis derived spatial coherence patterns. The results reveal that increased snow accumulation mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise by approximately 10 millimeters since 1901, with rates increasing from 1.1 mm per decade between 1901 and 2000 to 2.5 mm per decade after 1979. Reconstructed accumulation trends are highly variable in both sign and magnitude at the regional scale, and linked to the trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode since 1957. Because the observed Southern Annular Mode trend is accompanied by a decrease in Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulation, changes in the strength and location of the circumpolar westerlies cannot explain the reconstructed increase, which may instead be related to stratospheric ozone depletion. However, our results indicate that a warming atmosphere cannot be excluded as a dominant force in the underlying increase.

Antarctic↗

NASA NTRS2018

Increased snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise

Changes in accumulated snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet have an immediate and time-delayed impact on global mean sea level. The immediate impact is due to the instantaneous change in freshwater storage over the ice sheet, whereas the time-delayed impact acts in opposition through enhanced ice-dynamic flux into the ocean1. Here, we reconstruct 200 years of Antarctic-wide snow accumulation by synthesizing a newly compiled database of ice core records2 using reanalysis-derived spatial coherence patterns. The results reveal that increased snow accumulation mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise by ~10 mm since 1901, with rates increasing from 1.1 mm decade−1 between 1901 and 2000 to 2.5 mm decade−1 after 1979. Reconstructed accumulation trends are highly variable in both sign and magnitude at the regional scale, and linked to the trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode since 19573. Because the observed Southern Annular Mode trend is accompanied by a decrease in Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulation, changes in the strength and location of the circumpolar westerlies cannot explain the reconstructed increase, which may instead be related to stratospheric ozone depletion4. However, our results indicate that a warming atmosphere cannot be excluded as a dominant force in the underlying increase.

B Medley↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon Rainfall as Simulated in the PlioMIP2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Geolocation of Simulated Lightning Sources from Low-Earth Orbit

The recent removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station has left an observational gap in lightning detection from low-Earth orbit (LEO). However, new studies have demonstrated the potential for 3D geolocation of lightning sources using orbiting sensors. The Cubespark mission concept aims to take advantage of these developments by deploying a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and optical imagers to not only map lightning locations, but also to collect bi-spectral flash images. These new capabilities include mapping storm charge structure, flash channel structure, and distinguishing microphysical processes throughout flash development, helping link microphysics and convective processes with overall flash and storm structure around the globe from LEO. In this study, we simulate lightning RF sources in the very high frequency (VHF) band, extrapolate their signals to space-based detection using an improved ionospheric model, and reconstruct their 3D locations using a time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithm. Various constellation configurations, locations, and atmospheric conditions are considered in order to identify and quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results of this study emphasize the potential of space-based 3D lightning mapping under diverse conditions. 3D resolution is shown to be better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new global applications in meteorology and climate sciences. Here we present a selection of these geolocation results as seen from space alongside recent advancements, paving the way for a future generation of LEO lightning mappers.

CubeSpark↗

NASA NTRS2022

Projected Changes in Early Summer Ridging and Drought Over the Central Plains

Early summer (May–June–July; MJJ) droughts over the Central Plains are often caused by atmospheric ridging, but it is uncertain if these events will increase in frequency or if their influence on drought severity will change in a warming world. Here, we use tree-ring based reconstructions (1500–2020 CE) of MJJ ridging and 0–200 cm soil moisture with six CMIP6 model ensembles to investigate the response of Central Plains drought dynamics to a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5). By the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), precipitation increases in most models during the preceding months (February–March–April), especially over the northern part of the Central Plains, while changes during MJJ are non-robust. By contrast, vapor pressure deficit increases strongly in all models, resulting in five of the six models projecting robust median soil moisture drying and all six models projecting more rapid seasonal soil moisture declines during the transition into the summer. Major ridging events increase in frequency in some models, and there is strong agreement across all models that when ridging events do occur, they will cause more severe soil moisture drought and seasonal drying at the end of the 21st century. The median multi-model response also indicates, by the end of the 21st century, that the Central Plains will experience a three-fold increase in the risk of drought events equivalent to the most extreme droughts of the last 500 years. Our results demonstrate that even moderate warming is likely to increase early summer soil moisture drought severity and risk over the Central Plains, even in the absence of robust precipitation declines, and that drought responses to major atmospheric ridging events will be significantly stronger.

Drought↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Reconstruction of the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) project conducted a flight test of a 6m inflatable aeroshell. The LOFTID test article was a secondary payload on an Atlas V launcher that carried the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2) as its primary payload. The vehicle launched on November 10th, 2022. After reaching orbit, the LOFTID test article inflated the aeroshell, separated from the upper stage on an entry trajectory, and entered the atmosphere to splash down in the Pacific Ocean under parachutes. The test concept of operations is shown in Figure 1. The test article was instrumented with a variety of sensors to be used for post-flight evaluation of vehicle performance. Data from one of the key sensors for trajectory reconstruction, the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), was not captured in the data recorder due to a malfunction. Data from the nose cone mounted Flush Air Data Sensing (FADS) system were successfully acquired. The layout of the FADS sensors and the measured pressures during atmospheric entry are shown in Figure 2. The FADS data were combined with a Newtonian flow pressure model [1, 2] to produce estimates of the atmospheric relative trajectory. A Mach number anchoring technique given in [2] was used to stabilize estimates in high speed flight conditions. Since no IMU data were available, a trajectory simulation was used to provide the Mach number time history. The resulting estimates of the atmospheric-relative trajectory are shown in Figures 3. Given the loss of the IMU data, alternate methods for trajectory reconstruction are being explored. One approach under investigation is the use of the on-board video recorder data to be analyzed to reconstruct attitude motion. This approach is currently under investigation and will be reported on in the final paper. The Newtonian flow pressure model for the FADS analysis will also be updated with a CFD-based pressure model.

Christopher D Karlgaard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Reconstruction of the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

NASA NTRS2019

InSight's Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments

The InSight Mars Lander successfully landed on the surface on November 26, 2018. This poster will describe the methodologies and margins used in developing the aerothermal environments for design of the thermal protection systems (TPS), as well as a prediction of as-flown environments based on the best estimated trajectory. The InSight mission spacecraft design approach included the effects of radiant heat flux to the aft body from the wake for the first time on a US Mars Mission, due to overwhelming evidence in ground testing for the European ExoMars mission (2009/2010) [1] and 2010 tests in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility [2]. The radiant energy on an aftbody was also recently confirmed via measurement on the Schiaparelli mission [3]. In addition, the InSight mission expected to enter the Mars atmosphere during the dust storm season, so the heatshield TPS was designed to accommodate the extra recession due to the potential dust impact. This poster will compare the predicted aerothermal environments using the reconstructed best estimated trajectory to the design environments. Design Approach: The InSight spacecraft was planned to be a near-design-to-print copy of the Phoenix spacecraft. The determination of the heatshield TPS requirements was approached as if it was a new design due to the new requirement of flying through a dust storm. The baseline for aftbody was build-to-print, and all analyses focused on ensuring adequate margin. This proved to be a challenge because the Phoenix aftbody was designed to withstand only convective heating and the InSight aftbody was evaluated for both convective and radiative heating. Aerothermal environments were predicted using the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) CFD codes, and the Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra Program (NEQAIR) utilizing bounding design trajectories derived from Monte Carlo analyses from the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2). In all cases, super-catalytic flowfields were assigned to ensure the most conservative heating results. Two trajectories were evaluated: 1) the trajectory with the maximum heat flux was utilized to determine the flowfield characteristics and the viability of the selection of TPS materials; and 2) the trajectory with the maximum heat load was used to determine the required thicknesses of the TPS materials. Evaluation of the MEDLI data [4], along with ground test data [5] led to the determination of whether or not the flow would transition from laminar to turbulent on the heatshield, which also determined the TPS sizing location for the heatshield. Aerothermal margins were added for the convective heating and developed for the radiative heating. TPS material sizing was determined with the Reaction Kinetic Ablation Program (REKAP) and the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis program (FIAT) using a three-branched approach to account for aerothermal, material response, and material properties uncertainties. In addition, the heatshield recession was augmented by an analysis of the effect of entry through a potential dusty atmosphere using a methodology developed in References [6] and [7]. These analyses resulted in an increase to the Phoenix heatshield TPS thickness. Reconstruction Efforts: Once the best estimated trajectory is reconstructed by the team, the LAURA/HARA (High-Temperature Aerothermo-dynamic Radiation model) and DPLR/NEQAIR code pairs will be used to predict the as-flown aerothermal conditions. In these runs, fully-catalytic flowfields will be assigned because it is a more physically accurate description of the chemistry in the flow. Once again, determination of the onset of turbulence on the heatshield will be evaluated. The as-flown aerothermal environments will then be compared to the design environments.

Beck, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

UARS MILS O3 soundings compared with lidar measurements using the conservative coordinates reconstruction technique

A technique based on conservative properties of certain meteorological fields is used to compare ozone measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with soundings from a lidar system operated at midlatitudes by the University of L'Aquila, Italy. A few typical cases are analyzed in connection with the position of the vortex relative to the observing station, and it is shown that in general lidar observations taken within the vortex compare well with the UARS data, regardless of whether they are coincident with a satellite overpass. It is shown that such analysis may be useful for comparing measurements of the same quantity taken at different sites using different measurement techniques.

Redaelli, G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Impact craters and Venus resurfacing history

The history of resurfacing by tectonism and volcanism on Venus is reconstructed by means of an analysis of Venusian impact crater size-frequency distributions, locations, and preservation states. An atmospheric transit model for meteoroids demonstrates that for craters larger than about 30 km, the size-frequency distribution is close to the atmosphere-free case. An age of cessation of rapid resurfacing of about 500 Ma is obtained. It is inferred that a range of surface ages are recorded by the impact crater population; e.g., the Aphrodite zone is relatively young. An end-member model is developed to quantify resurfacing scenarios. It is argued that Venus has been resurfacing at an average rate of about 1 sq km/yr. Numerical simulations of resurfacing showed that there are two solution branches that satisfy the completely spatially random location restraint for Venusian craters: a is less than 0.0003 (4 deg diameter circle) and a is greater than 0.1 (74 deg diameter circle).

Phillips, Roger J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Dark Side of Pluto

During its departure from Pluto, New Horizons used its LORRI camera to image a portion of Pluto's southern hemisphere that was in a decades-long seasonal winter darkness, but still very faintly illuminated by sunlight reflected by Charon. Recovery of this faint signal was technically challenging. The bright ring of sunlight forward-scattered by haze in the Plutonian atmosphere encircling the nightside hemisphere was severely overexposed, defeating the standard smeared-charge removal required for LORRI images. Reconstruction of the overexposed portions of the raw images, however, allowed adequate corrections to be accomplished. The small solar elongation of Pluto during the departure phase also generated a complex scattered-sunlight background in the images that was three orders of magnitude stronger than the estimated Charon-light flux (the Charon-light flux is similar to the flux of moonlight on Earth a few days before first quarter). A model background image was constructed for each Pluto image based on principal component analysis applied to an ensemble of scattered-sunlight images taken at identical Sun−spacecraft geometry to the Pluto images. The recovered Charon-light image revealed a high-albedo region in the southern hemisphere. We argue that this may be a regional deposit of N2 or CH4 ice. The Charon-light image also shows that the south polar region currently has markedly lower albedo than the north polar region of Pluto, which may reflect the sublimation of N2 ice or the deposition of haze particulates during the recent southern summer.

Pluto↗