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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of computing-based automated fault detection and diagnosis of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems

We report faults in Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems of buildings result in significant energy waste in building operation. With fast-growing sensing data availability and advancement in computing, computational modeling has demonstrated strong capability to detect and diagnose HVAC system faults, hence, ensuring efficient building operation. This paper comprehensively reviews the state-of-the-art computing-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) for HVAC systems. Overall, the reviewed computing-based FDD methods are classified as two major approaches: knowledge-based and data-driven approaches. We then identify multiple important topics, including data availability, training data size, data quality, approach generality, capability, interpretability, and required modeling efforts, along with corresponding metrics to summarize the most updated FDD development. Generally, the knowledge-based approaches are further divided as physics-based modeling, Diagnostic Bayesian Network, and performance indicator-based methods while data-driven approaches include supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and regression and statistics-based methods. State-of-the-art FDD development, remaining challenges, and future research directions are further discussed to push forward FDD in practice. Availability of fault data, capability of existing methods to deal with complex fault situations (such as simultaneous faults), modeling interpretability for data-driven methods, and required engineering efforts for physics-based methods are identified as remaining challenges in FDD development. Improving modeling fidelity and reducing modeling efforts are essential for applying physics-based methods in real buildings. Meanwhile, addressing fault data availability, increasing algorithm adaptability, and handling multiple faults are essential to further enhance the applicability of data-driven FDD approaches.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expert‐in‐the‐loop design of integral nuclear data experiments

Abstract Nuclear data are fundamental inputs to radiation transport codes used for reactor design and criticality safety. The design of experiments to reduce nuclear data uncertainty has been a challenge for many years, but advances in the sensitivity calculations of radiation transport codes within the last two decades have made optimal experimental design possible. The design of integral nuclear experiments poses numerous challenges not emphasized in classical optimal design, in particular, constrained design spaces (in both a statistical and engineering sense), severely under‐determined systems, and optimality uncertainty. We present a design pipeline to optimize critical experiments that uses constrained Bayesian optimization within an iterative expert‐in‐the‐loop framework. We show a successfully completed experiment campaign designed with this framework that involved two critical configurations and multiple measurements that targeted compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations

Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous platform for solution processing of electronic polymers

The manipulation of electronic polymers’ solid-state properties through processing is crucial in electronics and energy research. Yet, efficiently processing electronic polymer solutions into thin films with specific properties remains a formidable challenge. We introduce Polybot, an artificial intelligence (AI) driven automated material laboratory designed to autonomously explore processing pathways for achieving high-conductivity, low-defect electronic polymers films. Leveraging importance-guided Bayesian optimization, Polybot efficiently navigates a complex 7-dimensional processing space. In particular, the automated workflow and algorithms effectively explore the search space, mitigate biases, employ statistical methods to ensure data repeatability, and concurrently optimize multiple objectives with precision. The experimental campaign yields scale-up fabrication recipes, producing transparent conductive thin films with averaged conductivity exceeding 4500 S/cm. Feature importance analysis and morphological characterizations reveal key design factors. This work signifies a significant step towards transforming the manufacturing of electronic polymers, highlighting the potential of AI-driven automation in material science.

Wang, Chengshi [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

An intergalactic medium temperature from a giant radio galaxy

ABSTRACT The warm–hot intergalactic medium (warm–hot IGM, or WHIM) pervades the filaments of the Cosmic Web and harbours half of the Universe’s baryons. The WHIM’s thermodynamic properties are notoriously hard to measure. Here we estimate a galaxy group–WHIM boundary temperature using a new method. In particular, we use a radio image of the giant radio galaxy (giant RG, or GRG) created by NGC 6185, a massive nearby spiral. We analyse this extraordinary object with a Bayesian 3D lobe model and deduce an equipartition pressure Peq = 6 × 10−16 Pa – among the lowest found in RGs yet. Using an X-ray-based statistical conversion for Fanaroff–Riley II RGs, we find a true lobe pressure $P = 1.5\substack{+1.7\\ -0.4}\times 10^{-15}\ \mathrm{Pa}$. Cosmic Web reconstructions, group catalogues, and MHD simulations furthermore imply an Mpc–scale IGM density $1 + \delta _\mathrm{IGM} = 40\substack{+30\\ -10}$. The buoyantly rising lobes are crushed by the IGM at their inner side, where an approximate balance between IGM and lobe pressure occurs: PIGM ≈ P. The ideal gas law then suggests an IGM temperature $T_\mathrm{IGM} = 11\substack{+12\\-5} \times 10^6\ \mathrm{K}$, or $k_\mathrm{B}T_\mathrm{IGM} = 0.9\substack{+1.0\\-0.4}\ \mathrm{keV}$, at the virial radius – consistent with X-ray-derived temperatures of similarly massive groups. Interestingly, the method is not performing at its limit: in principle, estimates TIGM ∼ 4 × 106 K are already possible – rivalling the lowest X-ray measurements available. The technique’s future scope extends from galaxy group outskirts to the WHIM. In conclusion, we demonstrate that observations of GRGs in Cosmic Web filaments are finally sensitive enough to probe the thermodynamics of galaxy groups and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗