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At least 271 records · Page 15

Airborne Measurements of Western U.S. Wildfire Emissions: Comparison with Prescribed Burning and Air Quality Implications

Wildfires emit significant amounts of pollutants that degrade air quality. Plumes from three wildfires in the western U.S. were measured from aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP), both in summer 2013. This study reports an extensive set of emission factors (EFs) for over 80 gases and 5 components of submicron particulate matter (PM1) from these temperate wildfires. These include rarely, or never before, measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds and multifunctional organic nitrates. The observed EFs are compared with previous measurements of temperate wildfires, boreal forest fires, and temperate prescribed fires. The wildfires emitted high amounts of PM1 (with organic aerosol (OA) dominating the mass) with an average EF that is more than 2 times the EFs for prescribed fires. The measured EFs were used to estimate the annual wildfire emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, total non methane organic compounds, and PM1 from 11 western U.S. states. The estimated gas emissions are generally comparable with the 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). However, our PM1 emission estimate (1530 +/- 570 Gg/yr) is over 3 times that of the NEI PM2.5 estimate and is also higher than the PM2.5 emitted from all other sources in these states in the NEI. This study indicates that the source of OA from biomass burning in the western states is significantly underestimated. In addition, our results indicate that prescribed burning may be an effective method to reduce fine particle emissions.

measured oxygenated volatile organic compounds↗

CONUS and Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as wildlands. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have developed a carbon consumption database for the Continental United States (CONUS) and are developing a global carbon consumption database, both of which are directly link to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuels are used to parameterize biomass, and consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. Residual burned area is defined as burning in areas that have recently burned. We implemented the FCCS 30-meter CONUS fuelbed dataset during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets. The 300-meter global database builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized FCCS biomass parameters. These products can serve as valuable tools when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly and accurately estimate carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere.

FCCS↗

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Climate↗

Aerosols at the Poles: An Aerocom Phase II Multi-Model Evaluation

Atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources reach the polar regions through long-range transport and affect the local radiation balance. Such transport is, however, poorly constrained in present-day global climate models, and few multi-model evaluations of polar anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing exist. Here we compare the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from simulations with 16 global aerosol models from the AeroCom Phase II model intercomparison project with available observations at both poles. We show that the annual mean multi-model median is representative of the observations in Arctic, but that the intermodel spread is large. We also document the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of the AOD for the individual aerosol species: black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel and biomass burning, sulfate, organic aerosols (OAs), dust, and sea-salt. For a subset of models that represent nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we document the role of these aerosols at high latitudes. The seasonal dependence of natural and anthropogenic aerosols differs with natural aerosols peaking in winter (seasalt) and spring (dust), whereas AOD from anthropogenic aerosols peaks in late spring and summer. The models produce a median annual mean AOD of 0.07 in the Arctic (defined here as north of 60 degrees N). The models also predict a noteworthy aerosol transport to the Antarctic (south of 70 degrees S) with a resulting AOD varying between 0.01 and 0.02. The models have estimated the shortwave anthropogenic radiative forcing contributions to the direct aerosol effect (DAE) associated with BC and OA from fossil fuel and biofuel (FF), sulfate, SOAs, nitrate, and biomass burning from BC and OA emissions combined. The Arctic modelled annual mean DAE is slightly negative (-0.12 W m(exp. -2), dominated by a positive BC FF DAE in spring and a negative sulfate DAE in summer. The Antarctic DAE is governed by BC FF. We perform sensitivity experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE) to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 percent increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Sand, Maria↗

Methane on the greenhouse agenda

Options for reducing methane emissions, which could have a significant effect on global warming, are addressed. Emissions from landfills, coal mining, oil and natural gas systems, ruminants, animal wastes and wastewater, rice cultivation, and biomass burning are considered. Methods for implementing these emission reductions are discussed.

Hogan, Kathleen B.↗

The Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED): Documentation of Versions 2.1, 2.2 and 2.4: Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation - Volume 38

Biomass burning is an important source of particulates and trace gases and a major element of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Well constrained emissions from vegetation fires are needed to model direct and indirect effects of biomass burning aerosols, to model homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry in the atmosphere, and to perform credible Earth system analysis, and climate and air pollution studies. To improve the performance of NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) in the areas of atmospheric constituent modeling with a focus on biomass burning we developed the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED). The QFED emissions are based on the fire radiative power (top-down) approach and draw on the cloud correction method developed in the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Location and fire radiative power of fires are obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level 2 fire products (MOD14 and MYD14) and the MODIS Geolocation products (MOD03 and MYD03). QFED strengths are high spatial and temporal resolutions and near-real time availability. Daily mean emissions are available at 0.3125 times 0.25 degrees and in recent versions also at 0.1 times 0.1 degrees. QFED provides emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, PM2.5, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, methyl ethyl ketone, propylene, ethane, propane, n- and i-butane, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acetone and methane. Two QFED product systems are maintained by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO): one that produces near real-time daily emissions used operationally in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System, and one that produces an extended historical dataset with daily emissions from March 2000 to the present. The historical dataset also provides monthly mean and monthly climatological emissions.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Satellite Mapping of Rain-Induced Nitric Oxide Emissions from Soils

We use space-based observations of NO2 columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) to map the spatial and seasonal variations of NOx emissions over Africa during 2000. The GOME observations show not only enhanced tropospheric NO2 columns from biomass burning during the dry season but also comparable enhancements from soil emissions during the rainy season over the Sahel. These soil emissions occur in strong pulses lasting 1-3 weeks following the onset of rain, and affect 3 million sq km of semiarid sub-Saharan savanna. Surface observations of NO2 from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Deposition of Biochemically Important Trace Species (DEBITS)/Africa (IDAF) network over West Africa provide further evidence for a strong role for microbial soil sources. By combining inverse modeling of GOME NO2 columns with space-based observations of fires, we estimate that soils contribute 3.3+/-1.8 TgN/year, similar to the biomass burning source (3.8+/-2.1 TgN/year), and thus account for 40% of surface NO(x) emissions over Africa. Extrapolating to all the tropics, we estimate a 7.3 TgN/year biogenic soil source, which is a factor of 2 larger compared to model-based inventories but agrees with observation-based inventories. These large soil NO(x) emissions are likely to significantly contribute to the ozone enhancement originating from tropical Africa.

Jaegle, L.↗

Characteristics of smoke emissions from biomass fires of the Amazon region - BASE-A experiment

The Biomass Burning Airborne and Spaceborne Experiment-Amazonia was designed for study of both aerosol and gaseous emissions from fires using an airborne sampling platform. The emission factors for combustion products from four fires suggest that the proportion of carbon released in the form of CO2 is higher than for fires of logging which has been burned in the western U.S. Combustion efficiency was of the order of 97 percent for the Amazonian test fire and 86-94 percent for deforestation fires. The inorganic content of particles from tropical fires are noted to be different from those of fires in the U.S.

Ward, Darold E.↗

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

Tropospheric Vertical Distribution of Tropical Atlantic Ozone Observed by TES during the Northern African Biomass Burning Season

We present vertical distributions of ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) over the tropical Atlantic Ocean during January 2005. Between 10N and 20S, TES ozone retrievals have Degrees of Freedom for signal (DOF) around 0.7 - 0.8 each for tropospheric altitudes above and below 500 hPa. As a result, TES is able to capture for the first time from space a distribution characterized by two maxima: one in the lower troposphere north of the ITCZ and one in the middle and upper troposphere south of the ITCZ. We focus our analysis on the north tropical Atlantic Ocean, where most of previous satellite observations showed discrepancies with in-situ ozone observations and models. Trajectory analyses and a sensitivity study using the GEOS-Chem model confirm the influence of northern Africa biomass burning on the elevated ozone mixing ratios observed by TES over this region.

satellite observations↗

The Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2A) - Dry season 1985

The Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2A) used data from aircraft, ground-based, and satellite platforms to characterize the chemistry and dynamics of the lower atmosphere over the Amazon Basin during the early-to-middle dry season, July and August 1985. This paper reports the conceptual framework and experimental approach used in ABLE 2A and serves as an introduction to the detailed papers which follow in this issue. The results of ABLE 2A demonstrate that isoprene, methane, carbon dioxide, nitric oxide, dimethylsulfide, and organic aerosol emissions from soils and vegetation play a major role in determining the chemical composition of the atmospheric mixed layer over undisturbed forest and wetland environments. As the dry season progresses, emissions from both local and distant biomass burning become an important source of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and ozone in the atmosphere over the central Amazon Basin.

Harriss, R. C.↗

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗

Chemical Characteristics of Continental Outflow Over the Tropical South Atlantic Ocean from Brazil and Africa

The chemical characteristics of air parcels over the tropical South Atlantic during September - October 1992 are summarized by analysis of aged marine and continental outflow classifications. Positive correlations between CO and CH3CL and minimal enhancements of C2CL40, and various ChloroFluoroCarbon (CFC) species in air parcels recently advected over the South Atlantic basin strongly suggest an impact on tropospheric chemistry from biomass burning on adjacent continental areas of Brazil and Africa. Comparison of the composition of aged Pacific air with aged marine air over the South Atlantic basin from 0.3 to 12.5 km altitude indicates potential accumulation of long-lived species during the local dry season. This may amount to enhancements of up to two-fold for C2H6, 30% for CO, and 10% for CH3Cl. Nitric oxide and NO(x) were significantly enhanced (up to approx. 1 part per billion by volume (ppbv)) above 10 km altitude and poorly correlated with CO and CH3Cl. In addition, median mixing ratios of NO and NO(x) were essentially identical in aged marine and continental outflow air masses. It appears that in addition to biomass burning, lightning or recycled reactive nitrogen may be an important source of NO(x) to the upper troposphere. Methane exhibited a monotonic increase with altitude from approx. 1690 to 1720 ppbv in both aged marine and continental outflow air masses. The largest mixing ratios in the upper troposphere were often anticorrelated with CO, CH3Cl, and CO2, suggesting CH, contributions from natural sources. We also argue, based on CH4/CO ratios and relationships with various hydrocarbon and CFC species, that inputs from biomass burning and the northern hemisphere are unlikely to be the dominant sources of CO, CH4 and C2H6 in aged marine air. Emissions from urban areas would seem to be necessary to account for the distribution of at least CH4 and C2H6. Over the African and South American continents an efficient mechanism of convective vertical transport coupled with large-scale circulations conveys biomass burning, urban, and natural emissions to the upper troposphere over the South Atlantic basin. Slow subsidence over the eastern South Atlantic basin may play an important role in establishing and maintaining the rather uniform vertical distribution of long-lived species over this region. The common occurrence of values greater than 1 for the ratio CH3OOH/H2O2 in the upper troposphere suggests that precipitation scavenging effectively removed highly water soluble gases (H2O2, HNO3, HCOOH, and CH3COOH) and aerosols during vertical convective transport over the continents. However, horizontal injection of biomass burning products over the South Atlantic, particularly water soluble species and aerosol particles, was frequent below 6 km altitude.

Talbot, R. W.↗

Influences of Solar Irradiation and Aerosol Surface Area on Nitrous Acid Production in Western U.S. Wildfire Smoke

Biomass burning has been identified as a primary emission source for a host of gas and aerosol phase compounds which can damage environmental and human health. During FIREX-AQ collaborators from UNH, NASA Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment (LARGE), and Brown University conducted measurements out of NASA Langley’s mobile laboratory during July and August of 2019. Nitrous acid (HONO) and nitric acid (HNO3) concentrations were measured at nominal 5-minute resolution using a dual mist chamber-ion chromatograph system resulting in approximately 1,200 total samples from five separate fires in the western US. Enhancement ratios between PM2.5 and carbon monoxide were used to discriminate between young and aged smoke plumes. Average HONO concentrations were significantly higher (P << 0.01) in young daytime compared to nighttime smoke while no statistical differences (P > 0.05) were observed between young and aged smoke during day or night. In daytime smoke from the Williams Flats fire (75 km SE of Spokane, WA on the Columbia River) UV-A irradiation was highly correlated with HONO to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) ratios; indicating that heterogenous NO2 to HONO conversion more than compensated for rapid photolytic loss of HONO. Black carbon (BC) may serve as a stable proxy for total available aerosol surface area in biomass burning plumes when total aerosol size distributions are unavailable. During the day HONO/NO2 is weakly correlated to BC when BC abundance exceeds 1 ug/m3 but at lower BC concentrations the relationship breaks down. At night this relationship was stronger, partly due to consistently high BC concentrations. These observations suggest that heterogenous conversion of NO2 to HONO on aerosol is a significant source of HONO in dense smoke plumes. In more diffuse smoke conversion on other surfaces (soil, foliage) becomes more important.

J. H. Kaspari↗

Emissions from Forest Fires near Mexico City

The emissions of NOx (defined as NO (nitric oxide) + NO2 (nitrogen dioxide)) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN), per unit amount of fuel burned, from fires in the pine forests that dominate the mountains surrounding Mexico City (MC) are about 2 times higher than normally observed for forest burning. The ammonia (NH3) emissions are about average for forest burning. The upper limit for the mass ratio of NOX to volatile organic compounds (VOC) for these MC-area mountain fires was approximately 0.38, which is similar to the NOx/VOC ratio in the MC urban area emissions inventory of 0.34, but much larger than the NOx/VOC ratio for tropical forest fires in Brazil (approximately 0.068). The nitrogen enrichment in the fire emissions may be due to deposition of nitrogen-containing pollutants in the outflow from the MC urban area. This effect may occur worldwide wherever biomass burning coexists with large urban areas (e.g. the tropics, southeastern US, Los Angeles Basin). The molar emission ratio of HCN to carbon monoxide (CO) for the mountain fires was 0.012 +/- 0.007, which is 2-9 times higher than widely used literature values for biomass burning. The ambient molar ratio HCN/CO in the MC-area outflow is about 0.003 +/- 0.0003. Thus, if only mountain fires emit significant amounts of HCN, these fires may be contributing about 25% of the CO production in the MCarea (approximately 98-100 W and 19-20 N). Comparing the PM10/CO and PM2.5/CO mass ratios in the MC Metropolitan Area emission inventory (0.01 15 and 0.0037) to the PM1/CO mass ratio for the mountain fires (0.133) then suggests that these fires could produce as much as approximately 79-92% of the primary fine particle mass generated in the MC-area. Considering both the uncertainty in the HCN/CO ratios and secondary aerosol formation in the urban and fire emissions implies that about 50 +/- 30% of the "aged" fine particle mass in the March 2006 MC-area outflow could be from these fires.

Yokelson, R.↗

A34F-01: Agricultural Emission Factors from FIREX-AQ

Prescribed fires are a frequent tool for land management, used for both land-clearing and agricultural activities. Determining emissions and subsequent air quality impacts from these fires requires emission factors appropriate for the type of biomass being burned. The NOAA/NASA Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign that took place from July to September 2019 provided comprehensive sampling of prescribed fires in the Eastern United States. We calculate emission factors for agricultural and land-clearing activities from FIREX-AQ and the dependence of these emission factors on fuel type/burning characteristics (i.e., modified combustion efficiency).

Katherine R Travis↗

The Global Impact of Biomass Burning: An Interview with EPA's Robert Huggett

The extent of biomass burning has increased significantly over the past 100 years because of human activities, and such burning is much more frequent and widespread than was previously believed. Biomass burning is now recognized as a significant global source of emissions, contributing as much as 40% of gross carbon dioxide and 38% of tropospheric ozone. Most of the world's burned biomass matter is from the savannas, and because two-thirds of the Earth's savannas are located in Africa, that continent is now recognized as the "burn center" of the planet. In the past few years the international scientific community has conducted field experiments using ground-based and airborne measurements in Africa, South America. and Siberia to better assess the global production of gases and particulates by biomass burning. Researchers are gathering this month in Williamsburg, VA, to discuss the results of these and other investigations at the Second Chapman Conference on Biomass Burning and Global Change, sponsored by the American Geophysical Union. The first international biomass burning conference, held in 1990, was attended by atmospheric chemists, climatologists, ecologists, forest and soil scientists, fire researchers, remote- sensins specialists, and environmental planners and managers from more than 25 countries.When we hear about biomass burning, we usually think of the burning of the worlds tropical forests for permanent land clearing. However, biomass burning serves a variety of land use changes, including the clearing of forests and savannas for agricultural and grazing use; shifting agriculture practices; the control of grass, weeds, and litter on agricultural and grazing lands; the elimination of stubble and waste on agricultural lands after the harvest; and the domestic use of biomass matter.

Sevine, Joel S.↗

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗