Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “capacity factor data”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition” provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2020. Highlights of this year’s update include: A record of nearly 9.6 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2020, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 38.7 GWAC across 43 states. 89% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2020 uses single-axis tracking. Median installed project costs declined to $\$$1.4/WAC (or $\$$1.1/WDC) in 2020. Project-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$$34/MWh in 2020 ($\$$28/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have stagnated more recently. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average just above $\$$20/MWh (levelized). In 2020, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) exceeded average wholesale prices in 12 of the 17 balancing authorities analyzed (including 4 of the 7 independent system operators across the United States). Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata for more than 150 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. At the end of 2020, there were at least 460 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 160 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Study of wavelength division multiplexing as a means of increasing the number of channels in multimode fiber optic communication links

A number of optical communication lines are now in use at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for the transmission of voice, computer data, and video signals. Presently, all of these channels utilize a single carrier wavelength centered near 1300 nm. The theoretical bandwidth of the fiber far exceeds the utilized capacity. Yet, practical considerations limit the usable bandwidth. The fibers have the capability of transmitting a multiplicity of signals simultaneously in each of two separate bands (1300 and 1550 nm). Thus, in principle, the number of transmission channels can be increased without installing new cable if some means of wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) can be utilized. The main goal of these experiments was to demonstrate that a factor of 2 increase in bandwidth utilization can share the same fiber in both a unidirectional configuration and a bidirectional mode of operation. Both signal and multimode fiber are installed at KSC. The great majority is multimode; therefore, this effort concentrated on multimode systems.

Bates, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX): A Modified Aircraft Count to Predict Sector Complexity During Trajectory-Based Operations

In this paper we introduce a new complexity metric to predict -in real-time- sector complexity for trajectory-based operations (TBO). TBO will be implemented in the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Trajectory-Based Complexity (TBX) is a modified aircraft count that can easily be computed and communicated in a TBO environment based upon predictions of aircraft and weather trajectories. TBX is scaled to aircraft count and represents an alternate and additional means to manage air traffic demand and capacity with more consideration of dynamic factors such as weather, aircraft equipage or predicted separation violations, as well as static factors such as sector size. We have developed and evaluated TBX in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center during human-in-the-loop studies of trajectory-based concepts since 2009. In this paper we will describe the TBX computation in detail and present the underlying algorithm. Next, we will describe the specific TBX used in an experiment at NASA's AOL. We will evaluate the performance of this metric using data collected during a controller-inthe- loop study on trajectory-based operations at different equipage levels. In this study controllers were prompted at regular intervals to rate their current workload on a numeric scale. When comparing this real-time workload rating to the TBX values predicted for these time periods we demonstrate that TBX is a better predictor of workload than aircraft count. Furthermore we demonstrate that TBX is well suited to be used for complexity management in TBO and can easily be adjusted to future operational concepts.

trajectories↗
NASA NTRS2013

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Integrated Gate Turnaround Management Concept Leveraging Big Data Analytics for NAS Performance Improvements

"Gate Turnaround" plays a key role in the National Air Space (NAS) gate-to-gate performance by receiving aircraft when they reach their destination airport, and delivering aircraft into the NAS upon departing from the gate and subsequent takeoff. The time spent at the gate in meeting the planned departure time is influenced by many factors and often with considerable uncertainties. Uncertainties such as weather, early or late arrivals, disembarking and boarding passengers, unloading/reloading cargo, aircraft logistics/maintenance services and ground handling, traffic in ramp and movement areas for taxi-in and taxi-out, and departure queue management for takeoff are likely encountered on the daily basis. The Integrated Gate Turnaround Management (IGTM) concept is leveraging relevant historical data to support optimization of the gate operations, which include arrival, at the gate, departure based on constraints (e.g., available gates at the arrival, ground crew and equipment for the gate turnaround, and over capacity demand upon departure), and collaborative decision-making. The IGTM concept provides effective information services and decision tools to the stakeholders, such as airline dispatchers, gate agents, airport operators, ramp controllers, and air traffic control (ATC) traffic managers and ground controllers to mitigate uncertainties arising from both nominal and off-nominal airport gate operations. IGTM will provide NAS stakeholders customized decision making tools through a User Interface (UI) by leveraging historical data (Big Data), net-enabled Air Traffic Management (ATM) live data, and analytics according to dependencies among NAS parameters for the stakeholders to manage and optimize the NAS performance in the gate turnaround domain. The application will give stakeholders predictable results based on the past and current NAS performance according to selected decision trees through the UI. The predictable results are generated based on analysis of the unique airport attributes (e.g., runway, taxiway, terminal, and gate configurations and tenants), and combined statistics from past data and live data based on a specific set of ATM concept-of-operations (ConOps) and operational parameters via systems analysis using an analytic network learning model. The IGTM tool will then bound the uncertainties that arise from nominal and off-nominal operational conditions with direct assessment of the gate turnaround status and the impact of a certain operational decision on the NAS performance, and provide a set of recommended actions to optimize the NAS performance by allowing stakeholders to take mitigation actions to reduce uncertainty and time deviation of planned operational events. An IGTM prototype was developed at NASA Ames Simulation Laboratories (SimLabs) to demonstrate the benefits and applicability of the concept. A data network, using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM)-like messaging application using the ActiveMQ message service, was connected to the simulated data warehouse, scheduled flight plans, a fast-time airport simulator, and a graphic UI. A fast-time simulation was integrated with the data warehouse or Big Data/Analytics (BAI), scheduled flight plans from Aeronautical Operational Control AOC, IGTM Controller, and a UI via a SWIM-like data messaging network using the ActiveMQ message service, illustrated in Figure 1, to demonstrate selected use-cases showing the benefits of the IGTM concept on the NAS performance.

Efficent ATM systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Islands are uniquely vulnerable to extreme weather events and food insecurity, and have additional response challenges due to their limited landmasses and economies, isolation, colonial legacies, and high dependence of food imports. Domestic farmers have a key role in producing food for island communities like Puerto Rico, which can safeguard food security when food importation may be challenging. Nevertheless, in the context of disaster, farmers themselves may be vulnerable to food insecurity and unable to contribute to domestic markets. This paper examines Puerto Rican farmers households’ food security in the aftermath of 2017’s Hurricane Maria using a social-ecological lens. Survey data from 405 farmers gathered eight months after Maria, coupled with biophysical data from the hurricane’s impacts (winds, rains, and landslides), were analyzed. Overall, 69% of farmers experienced at least one month of food insecurity in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, and 38% reported persistent food insecurity (three months or more). A multinomial logistic regression suggests that biophysical impacts, but especially social factors, such as age and constraint access to external sources of support, are linked with persistent food insecurity. This suggests that the biophysical impacts of the hurricane interact with existing infrastructure and social resources to affect farmer vulnerability and the food environment in different ways. Thus, strengthening adaptive capacity in multiple domains can help farmers and vulnerable populations better navigate the disruptions faced during disasters to alleviate food insecurity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1979

On-board multispectral classification study

The factors relating to onboard multispectral classification were investigated. The functions implemented in ground-based processing systems for current Earth observation sensors were reviewed. The Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, Return Beam Vidicon, and Heat Capacity Mapper were studied. The concept of classification was reviewed and extended from the ground-based image processing functions to an onboard system capable of multispectral classification. Eight different onboard configurations, each with varying amounts of ground-spacecraft interaction, were evaluated. Each configuration was evaluated in terms of turnaround time, onboard processing and storage requirements, geometric and classification accuracy, onboard complexity, and ancillary data required from the ground.

Ewalt, D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Coupled Electromagnetic Resonators for Enhanced Communications and Telemetry

Future NASA missions will require the collection of an increasing quantity and quality of data which, in turn, will place increasing demands on advanced sensors and advanced high bandwidth telemetry and communications systems. The capabilities of communication and telemetry systems depend, among other factors, on the stability, controllability and spectral purity of the carrier wave. These, in turn, depend on the quality of the oscillator, or resonator, or the Q of the system. Recent work on high Q optical resonators has indicated that the Q, or quality factor, of optical microsphere resonators can be substantially enhanced by coupling several such resonators together.1-3 In addition to the possibility of enhanced Q and increased energy storage capacity, the coupled optical resonators indicate that a wide variety of interesting and potentially useful phenomena such as induced transparency and interactive mode splitting can be observed depending critically on the morphology and configuration of the microresonators. The purpose of this SFFP has been to examine several different coupled electromagnetic oscillator configurations in order to evaluate their potential for enhanced electromagnetic communications.

Dimmock, John O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1980

A high performance cocurrent-flow heat pipe for heat recovery applications

By the introduction of a plate-and-tube separator assembly into a heat pipe vapor core, it has been demonstrated that axial transport capacity in reflux mode can be improved by up to a factor of 10. This improvement is largely the result of eliminating the countercurrent shear that commonly limits reflux heat pipe axial capacity. With benzene, axial heat fluxes up to 1800 W/sq cm were obtained in the temperature range 40 to 80 C, while heat flux densities up to 3000 W/sq cm were obtained with R-11 over the temperature range 40 to 80 C. These very high axial capacities compare favorably with liquid metal limits; the sonic limit for liquid sodium, for example, is 3000 W/sq cm at 657 C. Computational models developed for these cocurrent flow heat pipes agreed with experimental data within + or - 25%.

Saaski, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Complement activation promotes muscle inflammation during modified muscle use

Modified muscle use can result in muscle inflammation that is triggered by unidentified events. In the present investigation, we tested whether the activation of the complement system is a component of muscle inflammation that results from changes in muscle loading. Modified rat hindlimb muscle loading was achieved by removing weight-bearing from the hindlimbs for 10 days followed by reloading through normal ambulation. Experimental animals were injected with the recombinant, soluble complement receptor sCR1 to inhibit complement activation. Assays for complement C4 or factor B in sera showed that sCR1 produced large reductions in the capacity for activation of the complement system through both the classical and alternative pathways. Analysis of complement C4 concentration in serum in untreated animals showed that the classical pathway was activated during the first 2 hours of reloading. Analysis of factor B concentration in untreated animals showed activation of the alternative pathway at 6 hours of reloading. Administration of sCR1 significantly attenuated the invasion of neutrophils (-49%) and ED1(+) macrophages (-52%) that occurred in nontreated animals after 6 hours of reloading. The presence of sCR1 also reduced significantly the degree of edema by 22% as compared to untreated animals. Together, these data show that increased muscle loading activated the complement system which then briefly contributes to the early recruitment of inflammatory cells during modified muscle loading.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abiotic and biotic factors jointly influence the contact and environmental transmission of a generalist pathogen

The joint influence of abiotic and biotic factors is important for understanding the transmission of generalist pathogens. Abiotic factors such as temperature can directly influence pathogen persistence in the environment and will also affect biotic factors, such as host community composition and abundance. At intermediate spatial scales, the effects of temperature, community composition, and host abundance are expected to contribute to generalist pathogen transmission. We use a simple transmission model to explain and predict how host community composition, host abundance, and environmental pathogen persistence times can independently and jointly influence transmission. Our transmission model clarifies how abiotic and biotic factors can synergistically support the transmission of a pathogen. The empirical data show that high community competence, high abundance, and low temperatures correlate with high levels of transmission of ranavirus in larval amphibian communities. Discrete wetlands inhabited by larval amphibians in the presence of ranavirus provide a compelling case study comprising distinct host communities at a spatial scale anticipated to demonstrate abiotic and biotic influence on transmission. We use these host communities to observe phenomena demonstrated in our theoretical model. These findings emphasize the importance of considering both abiotic and biotic factors, and concomitant direct and indirect mechanisms, in the study of pathogen transmission and should extend to other generalist pathogens with the capacity for environmental transmission.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Adaptation to high CO2 concentration in an optimal environment: radiation capture, canopy quantum yield and carbon use efficiency

The effect of elevated [CO2] on wheat (Triticum aestivum L. Veery 10) productivity was examined by analysing radiation capture, canopy quantum yield, canopy carbon use efficiency, harvest index and daily C gain. Canopies were grown at either 330 or 1200 micromoles mol-1 [CO2] in controlled environments, where root and shoot C fluxes were monitored continuously from emergence to harvest. A rapidly circulating hydroponic solution supplied nutrients, water and root zone oxygen. At harvest, dry mass predicted from gas exchange data was 102.8 +/- 4.7% of the observed dry mass in six trials. Neither radiation capture efficiency nor carbon use efficiency were affected by elevated [CO2], but yield increased by 13% due to a sustained increase in canopy quantum yield. CO2 enrichment increased root mass, tiller number and seed mass. Harvest index and chlorophyll concentration were unchanged, but CO2 enrichment increased average life cycle net photosynthesis (13%, P < 0.05) and root respiration (24%, P < 0.05). These data indicate that plant communities adapt to CO2 enrichment through changes in C allocation. Elevated [CO2] increases sink strength in optimal environments, resulting in sustained increases in photosynthetic capacity, canopy quantum yield and daily C gain throughout the life cycle.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection of a Cobalt-Containing Interphase at the Li 6 PS 5 Cl-NMC111 Interface by In Situ μ XANES and EIS

Sulfide electrolyte all-solid-state lithium batteries (ASLBs) with uncoated Li-Ni x Mn y Co 1–x–y O 2 (NMC) cathodes suffer from a large capacity loss during initial cycling and an increase in cell impedance. Decomposition reactions are known to occur at the Li 6 PS 5 Cl-NMC111 interface due to incompatibility between the two materials. If a stabilizing coating is applied to the NMC, it delivers full capacity during initial charge. However, the loss in capacity during discharge still occurs. The interface was studied by μ XANES and through EIS analysis. A chemically-formed interphase was detected by μ XANES, evident from reduction of Co at an uncoated NMC particle surface. This interphase was produced by decomposition at rest. To study the effect of the interphase on electrochemically active surface area, piecewise in situ EIS was performed and the data was modeled using a transmission line model (TLM). The charge transfer resistance R CT was used to estimate the volume specific active surface area (a act ). The median value for a act was 296 cm –1 , a factor of 7.5 lower than the theoretical value of 2216 cm –1 . This provided evidence of a lower electrochemically active surface area in the ASLB.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1980

Satellite monitoring of sea surface pollution

Thermal IR data from NASA's Heat Capacity Mapping Mission were used in a study of the feasibility of detecting oil spills in the seas around the UK. The period of observation covered the years 1978/9, in which there were no major spills in the area. A video processor capable of generating false color renderings of any satellite image from eight density levels was used in the synoptic search for spills. Other laboratory equipment, and associated analyses, were used to study the thermal behavior of oil spills on water. Oil spills may appear to be warmer or cooler that the surrounding sea, depending on numerous factors.

Fielder, G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparison between the land surface response of the ECMWF model and the FIFE-1987 data

An averaged time series for the surface data for the 15 x 15 km FIFE site was prepared for the summer of 1987. Comparisons with 48-hr forecasts from the ECMWF model for extended periods in July, August, and October 1987 identified model errors in the incoming SW radiation in clear skies, the ground heat flux, the formulation of surface evaporation, the soil-moisture model, and the entrainment at boundary-layer top. The model clear-sky SW flux is too high at the surface by 5-10 percent. The ground heat flux is too large by a factor of 2 to 3 because of the large thermal capacity of the first soil layer (which is 7 cm thick), and a time truncation error. The surface evaporation was near zero in October 1987, rather than of order 70 W/sq m at noon. The surface evaporation falls too rapidly after rainfall, with a time-scale of a few days rather than the 7-10 d (or more) of the observations. On time-scales of more than a few days the specified 'climate layer' soil moisture, rather than the storage of precipitation, has a large control on the evapotranspiration. The boundary-layer-top entrainment is too low. This results in a moist bias in the boundary-layer mixing ratio of order 2 g/Kg in forecasts from an experimental analysis with nearly realistic surface fluxes; this because there is insufficient downward mixing of dry air.

Betts, Alan K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗