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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Large-scale inflatable structures for tunnel protection: a review of the Resilient Tunnel Plug project

The protection of underground civil infrastructure continues to be a high priority for transportation and transit security agencies. In particular, rail transit tunnels running under bodies of water are susceptible to disruptions due to flooding caused by extraordinary climatic events such as hurricanes or other events resulting from human activities. Several events have taken place in the past decades that have demonstrated the need to mitigate vulnerabilities or, at least, minimize the consequences of catastrophic events. Although it is impossible to prevent all situations that can lead to flooding, damage can be substantially decreased by reducing the area affected by the event. To minimize the effects of an event, a possible approach is to compartmentalize the tunnel system by creating temporary barriers that can contain the propagation of flooding until a more permanent solution can be implemented. One way to create a temporary barrier is by the deployment of a large-scale inflatable structure, also known as an inflatable plug. In such an application, the inflatable structure is prepared for placement, either permanently or temporally, and maintained ready for deployment, inflation, and pressurization when needed. The internal plug pressure imparts a normal force against the tunnel wall surface with the friction between the plug and tunnel surfaces opposing axial movement of the plug. The sealing effectiveness depends on the ability of the inflatable structure to self-deploy and fit, without human intervention, to the intricacies of the perimeter of the conduit being sealed. Primary design constraints include having the plug stowed away from the dynamic envelope of the trains and being able to withhold the pressure of the flooding water. This work presents a compilation of the main aspects of the activities completed for the development of large-scale inflatable structures as part of the Resilient Tunnel Plug (RTP) Project. The main test results and lessons learned are presented to demonstrate the viability of implementing large-scale inflatable plugs for the containment of flooding in rail tunnels systems. Over 400 coupon and specimen tests, 200 reduced scale tests, and 100 full-scale tests were conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the design of different prototypes over a 10-year research and development project. The culmination of the work was 12 large-scale flooding demonstrations where the inflatable tunnel plug was shown able to be deployed remotely and withstand a simulated flooding event.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing stem cell technologies for conservation of wildlife biodiversity

ABSTRACT Wildlife biodiversity is essential for healthy, resilient and sustainable ecosystems. For biologists, this diversity also represents a treasure trove of genetic, molecular and developmental mechanisms that deepen our understanding of the origins and rules of life. However, the rapid decline in biodiversity reported recently foreshadows a potentially catastrophic collapse of many important ecosystems and the associated irreversible loss of many forms of life on our planet. Immediate action by conservationists of all stripes is required to avert this disaster. In this Spotlight, we draw together insights and proposals discussed at a recent workshop hosted by Revive & Restore, which gathered experts to discuss how stem cell technologies can support traditional conservation techniques and help protect animal biodiversity. We discuss reprogramming, in vitro gametogenesis, disease modelling and embryo modelling, and we highlight the prospects for leveraging stem cell technologies beyond mammalian species.

Developmental Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

North Carolina Water Utility Builds Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources

As the frequency and duration of grid outages increase, backup power systems are becoming more important for ensuring that critical infrastructure continues to provide essential services. Most facilities rely on diesel generators, which may be ineffective during long outages owing to limited fuel supplies and high generator failure rates. Distributed energy resources such as solar, storage, and combined-heat-and-power systems, coupled with on-site biofuel production, offer an alternative source of on-site generation that can provide both cost savings and resilience (i.e., the ability to respond to catastrophic events with longer-term consequences). A mixed-integer linear program minimizes costs and maximizes resilience at a wastewater treatment plant in Wilmington, North Carolina. We find that the plant can reduce life-cycle energy costs by 3.1% through the installation of a hybrid combined-heat-and-power, photovoltaic, and storage system. When paired with existing diesel generators, this system can sustain full load for seven days while saving $664,000 over 25 years and reducing diesel fuel use by 48% compared with the diesel-only solution. This analysis informed a decision by the Cape Fear Public Utility Authority to allocate funds for the implementation of a combined-heat-and-power system at the wastewater treatment plant in fiscal year 2023. Finally, the benefits of deploying hybrid combined-heat-and-power technologies and the utilization of on-site biofuel production extend, on a national scale, to thousands of wastewater treatment facilities and other types of critical infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear propagation of chirped laser pulses through a dispersive and turbulent atmosphere

The evolution of ultrashort laser pulses in dispersive, turbulent, nonlinear, and dissipative media is discussed in connection with nonlinear self-focusing collapse and the onset of laser filamentation. In quiescent air, a laser pulse propagating with a peak power greater than a critical power for self-focusing will undergo a catastrophic, transverse collapse until the intensity is large enough for photoionization. At this point, self-focusing is arrested and balanced by plasma refraction, forming a laser filament. By applying an appropriate chirp, the dispersive properties of the medium can be used to enhance this process and control its onset, and to counter dissipative effects such as molecular absorption and atmospheric scattering. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of atmospheric turbulence on the propagation of nonlinear pulses with dispersion compensation (chirp). Furthermore, the analytical results are compared with wave optics simulations and found to be in reasonable agreement as long as the pulse maintains a near-Gaussian spatiotemporal profile.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement and control of optical nonlinearities in dispersive dielectric multilayers

Dispersive dielectric multilayer mirrors, high-dispersion chirped mirrors in particular, are widely used in modern ultrafast optics to manipulate spectral chirps of ultrashort laser pulses. Dispersive mirrors are routinely designed for dispersion compensation in ultrafast lasers and are assumed to be linear optical components. In this work, we report the experimental characterization of an unexpectedly strong nonlinear response in these chirped mirrors. At modest peak intensities <2 TW/cm 2 —well below the known laser-induced damage threshold of these dielectric structures—we observed a strong reflectivity decrease, local heating, transient spectral modifications, and time-dependent absorption of the incident pulse. Through computational analysis, we found that the incident laser field can be enhanced by an order of magnitude in the dielectric layers of the structure. The field enhancement leads to a wavelength-dependent nonlinear absorption, that shows no signs of cumulative damage before catastrophic failure. The nonlinear absorption is not a simply two-photon process but instead is likely mediated by defects that facilitate two-photon absorption. To mitigate this issue, we designed and fabricated a dispersive multilayer design that strategically suppresses the field enhancement in the high-index layers, shifting the high-field regions to the larger-bandgap, low-index layers. This strategy significantly increases the maximum peak intensity that the mirror can sustain. However, our finding of an onset of nonlinear absorption even at ‘modest’ fluence and peak intensity has significant implications for numerous past published experimental works employing dispersive mirrors. Additionally, our results will guide future ultrafast experimental work and ultrafast laser design.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disproportionate impacts of COVID-19 in a large US city

COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted individuals depending on where they live and work, and based on their race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Studies have documented catastrophic disparities at critical points throughout the pandemic, but have not yet systematically tracked their severity through time. Using anonymized hospitalization data from March 11, 2020 to June 1, 2021 and fine-grain infection hospitalization rates, we estimate the time-varying burden of COVID-19 by age group and ZIP code in Austin, Texas. During this 15-month period, we estimate an overall 23.7% (95% CrI: 22.5–24.8%) infection rate and 29.4% (95% CrI: 28.0–31.0%) case reporting rate. Individuals over 65 were less likely to be infected than younger age groups (11.2% [95% CrI: 10.3–12.0%] vs 25.1% [95% CrI: 23.7–26.4%]), but more likely to be hospitalized (1,965 per 100,000 vs 376 per 100,000) and have their infections reported (53% [95% CrI: 49–57%] vs 28% [95% CrI: 27–30%]). We used a mixed effect poisson regression model to estimate disparities in infection and reporting rates as a function of social vulnerability. We compared ZIP codes ranking in the 75th percentile of vulnerability to those in the 25th percentile, and found that the more vulnerable communities had 2.5 (95% CrI: 2.0–3.0) times the infection rate and only 70% (95% CrI: 60%-82%) the reporting rate compared to the less vulnerable communities. Inequality persisted but declined significantly over the 15-month study period. Our results suggest that further public health efforts are needed to mitigate local COVID-19 disparities and that the CDC’s social vulnerability index may serve as a reliable predictor of risk on a local scale when surveillance data are limited.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tipping points emerge from weak mutualism in metacommunities

The coexistence of obligate mutualists is often precariously close to tipping points where small environmental changes can drive catastrophic shifts in species composition. For example, microbial ecosystems can collapse by the decline of a strain that provides an essential resource on which other strains cross-feed. Here, we show that tipping points, ecosystem collapse, bistability and hysteresis arise even with very weak (non-obligate) mutualism provided the population is spatially structured. Based on numeric solutions of a metacommunity model and mean-field analyses, we demonstrate that weak mutualism lowers the minimal dispersal rate necessary to avoid stochastic extinction, while species need to overcome a mean threshold density to survive in this low dispersal rate regime. Our results allow us to make numerous predictions for mutualistic metacommunities regarding tipping points, hysteresis effects, and recovery from external perturbations, and let us draw general conclusions for ecosystems even with random, not necessarily mutualistic, interactions and systems with density-dependent dispersal rather than direct mutualistic interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chromoanagenesis from radiation-induced genome damage in Populus

Chromoanagenesis is a genomic catastrophe that results in chromosomal shattering and reassembly. These extreme single chromosome events were first identified in cancer, and have since been observed in other systems, but have so far only been formally documented in plants in the context of haploid induction crosses. The frequency, origins, consequences, and evolutionary impact of such major chromosomal remodeling in other situations remain obscure. Here, we demonstrate the occurrence of chromoanagenesis in poplar ( Populus sp . ) trees produced from gamma-irradiated pollen. Specifically, in this population of siblings carrying indel mutations, two individuals exhibited highly frequent copy number variation (CNV) clustered on a single chromosome, one of the hallmarks of chromoanagenesis. Using short-read sequencing, we confirmed the presence of clustered segmental rearrangement. Independently, we identified and validated novel DNA junctions and confirmed that they were clustered and corresponded to these rearrangements. Our reconstruction of the novel sequences suggests that the chromosomal segments have reorganized randomly to produce a novel rearranged chromosome but that two different mechanisms might be at play. Our results indicate that gamma irradiation can trigger chromoanagenesis, suggesting that this may also occur when natural or induced mutagens cause DNA breaks. We further demonstrate that such events can be tolerated in poplar, and even replicated clonally, providing an attractive system for more in-depth investigations of their consequences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low-temperature failure mechanism of [001] niobium micropillars under uniaxial tension

The plasticity of body-centered cubic (bcc) metals is dependent of temperature as well as sample dimension at the micrometer scale, but the effects of cryogenic temperature on the plasticity and the related failure process in micron-sized bcc metals have not been studied under uniaxial tension. In this work, we utilized in situ cryogenic micro-tensile tests, transmission electron microscopy, and dislocation dynamic simulations to examine the plasticity and failure processes of [001]-oriented bcc niobium micropillars. Our study reveals that a strong suppression of cross-slip at low temperatures prevents dislocation multiplication and leads to a dislocation starvation state, at which no mobile dislocation exists due to the rapid annihilation of dislocations at free surfaces. New dislocations are then nucleated until stress concentration at a slip step creates a micro-crack, the propagation of which leads to catastrophic failure. As a result, this unique failure process results from the combined effects of sample dimension and temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Liquid helium fluid dynamics studies. Final Technical Report

Future high energy physics accelerators depend on a number of advanced technologies to open the many doors of scientific discovery. Among these advanced technologies, superconducting magnets and superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities are the backbone of the accelerator and detector systems. But all these low temperature systems depend critically on successful and reliable operation of their supporting technologies, among which the liquid helium cooling system is of the utmost importance. To improve the quality of these systems both in terms of efficiency and reliability, a robust helium cryogenics research and development (R&D) effort is required. The proposed research to be conducted by the FSU cryogenics group aims to produce fundamental knowledge that meets this R&D need. The projects that we have completed over the past grant period at Florida State University consist of experimental research on liquid helium fluid dynamics and heat transfer problems relevant to the development of future superconducting particle physics accelerators. Liquid helium is the coolant used in all such facilities and in many of these facilities He II (the low temperature phase of liquid helium also known as superfluid helium) is preferred due to its outstanding heat transfer characteristics. The work consists of two main experimental studies that probe both fundamental as well as practical aspects of liquid helium cooling. The first is a broad and fundamental study of the heat and mass transfer processes that can occur during a sudden catastrophic loss of vacuum (SCLV) incident in a superconducting accelerator. SCLV refers to the remote but extremely critical accident scenario where atmospheric pressure air is allowed to flood into the insulating vacuum system and impinge on the liquid helium cooled surfaces in the accelerator. Safe performance and recovery from such accidents is essential to the reliable operation of superconducting accelerators. The dynamics of this process is quite complex and so our approach is to conduct a series of well-orchestrated experiments that probe the various physical phenomena that can occur during an SCLV event. The experiments are coupled with analytic and numerical analysis in an effort to develop a general understanding of the process and to assist with future accelerator design and development. The second activity is directed toward fundamental understanding of heat and mass transfer in He II, which is essential to the design of superconducting magnets and radio frequency cavities in accelerators. The work consists of flow visualization of the dynamics of He II using laser assisted techniques. Two complementary techniques are used to study the fundamentals of the turbulent state. The first technique uses neutrally buoyant solid hydrogen particles to probe the flow fields of the superfluid and normal fluid components. The other technique uses laser excited He2* molecules as tracers of the normal fluid motion within the He II. The activities also included an effort to use visualization techniques to locate transient hot spots in radio frequency superconducting cavities. Such work provides valuable information about the heat transfer process in He II and its impact on the performance of superconducting devices. The research effort at Florida State University is not directly in support of a specific high energy physics experiment or facility. Rather, the work is general and coordinated with HEP accelerator laboratories to provide valuable insight that can assist with future accelerator development.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Validation of a Simulation Tool to Predict the Combined Structural, Electrical, Electrochemical and Thermal Responses of Automotive Batteries

Battery safety is one of the most important design factors of electrified vehicles (EVs) since battery failure may lead to a catastrophic consequence. To improve the safety of battery systems in EVs, battery behaviors under various abuse conditions should be well understood. One way to examine battery response under extreme conditions is to conduct abuse tests in different scenarios. They can provide first-hand pass/fail information on battery safety, but they are usually expensive and time-consuming, which is inconvenient during design iterations and optimization. On the other hand, computational modeling can predict the battery behaviors in a more efficient and cost-effective way, which becomes an important tool to evaluate battery safety. Modeling battery responses and failure is challenging since it involves multiple coupled physical processes, needs to consider complex material properties and is computationally intensive. This project aims to develop a practical simulation tool to predict the combined structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal responses of automotive batteries to crash-induced crush and short circuit and validate it for conditions relevant to automotive crash. Advanced material constitutive models will be utilized to capture the mechanical response of cell components. Moreover, methods will be developed to reduce computational complexity of the model and allow battery safety simulations to extend from cell-level to module/pack level with affordable computational resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

QUIC-Fire: 3D Fire-Atmosphere Feedback Model for Wildland Fire Management

Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, and Tall Timbers Research Station developed QUIC-Fire, the first laptop-capable, real-time wildland fire prediction software that captures the critical influences of 3D vegetation structure, interactions between multiple fires, variable winds, and complex topography at meter-scale resolutions. Prescribed burns are needed to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. QUIC-Fire transforms a prescribed fire manager’s ability to assess risk, optimize fuel treatments, and plan prescribed burns. Los Alamos, U.S. Forest Service, Tall Timbers Research Station, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Spatial Information Group, and Applied Interagency Prescribed Training Center have used QUIC-Fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale modeling of shear banding in metallic glasses (Final report)

Metallic glasses (MGs) possess remarkably high strength but suffer from minimal tensile ductility due to the formation of catastrophic shear bands. The goal of this research project is to develop an understanding of the microstructures and deformation mechanisms that control shear banding in MGs, which will enable the development of MGs with enhanced plasticity. Two scientific objectives have been pursued. (1) Understand the underlying mechanisms of shear banding phenomena in presence of nanoscale heterogeneities in MGs. (2) Understand the evolution of MG heterogenous structure upon thermomechanical stimuli for plasticity enhancement through controlling and distributing multiple shear bands.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis [Web page]

Infrastructure is relied upon to support many basic functions of society. This summary provides information about Los Alamos National Laboratory's role to help counter natural and human-caused catastrophes on infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient, Predictive Tomography of Multi-Qubit Quantum Processors

After decades of R&D, quantum computers comprising more than 2 qubits are appearing. If this progress is to continue, the research community requires a capability for precise characterization (“tomography”) of these enlarged devices, which will enable benchmarking, improvement, and finally certification as mission-ready. As world leaders in characterization -- our gate set tomography (GST) method is the current state of the art – the project team is keenly aware that every existing protocol is either (1) catastrophically inefficient for more than 2 qubits, or (2) not rich enough to predict device behavior. GST scales poorly, while the popular randomized benchmarking technique only measures a single aggregated error probability. This project explored a new insight: that the combinatorial explosion plaguing standard GST could be avoided by using an ansatz of few-qubit interactions to build a complete, efficient model for multi-qubit errors. We developed this approach, prototyped it, and tested it on a cutting-edge quantum processor developed by Rigetti Quantum Computing (RQC), a US-based startup. We implemented our new models within Sandia’s PyGSTi open-source code, and tested them experimentally on the RQC device by probing crosstalk. We found two major results: first, our schema worked and is viable for further development; second, while the Rigetti device is indeed a “real” 8-qubit quantum processor, its behavior fluctuated significantly over time while we were experimenting with it and this drift made it difficult to fit our models of crosstalk to the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Nuclear Materials on Both Sides of Regulatory Control: from IAEA Safeguards to Global Counter-Nuclear Smuggling

Global nuclear security is dependent upon the sustained and verifiable control of radiological and nuclear (R/N) materials within nuclear facilities, under the administrative purview of national governments. It is the responsibility of each country to account for their R/N materials holdings and to ensure that they do not escape regulatory control and fall into the wrong hands. The Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) is tasked with providing support to foreign partners in developing the tools and expertise to detect, disrupt, and investigate R/N materials encountered out of regulatory control, in such circumstances as at border crossings and other checkpoints, or in the course of routine policework. Thankfully, such incidents are infrequent, and NSDD continues to work bilaterally with partner countries to strengthen their capabilities to combat nuclear smuggling and trafficking incidents in their countries. For the vast majority of R/N materials that remain under regulatory control, however, it is critical that their safe storage and use be independently verified. Even a single loss incident of R/N materials, particularly of special nuclear materials (highly-enriched uranium and plutonium) has the potential to cause a catastrophe. How can the international community be assured that R/N materials currently under national regulatory control remain there?

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗