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DOE OSTI2023

NdFeB Permanent Magnet Uses, Projected Growth Rates and Nd Plus Dy Demands across End-Use Sectors through 2050: A Review

Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

IoT Intrusion Detection Taxonomy, Reference Architecture, and Analyses

This paper surveys the deep learning (DL) approaches for intrusion-detection systems (IDSs) in Internet of Things (IoT) and the associated datasets toward identifying gaps, weaknesses, and a neutral reference architecture. A comparative study of IDSs is provided, with a review of anomaly-based IDSs on DL approaches, which include supervised, unsupervised, and hybrid methods. All techniques in these three categories have essentially been used in IoT environments. To date, only a few have been used in the anomaly-based IDS for IoT. For each of these anomaly-based IDSs, the implementation of the four categories of feature(s) extraction, classification, prediction, and regression were evaluated. We studied important performance metrics and benchmark detection rates, including the requisite efficiency of the various methods. Four machine learning algorithms were evaluated for classification purposes: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, we compared each via the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The study model exhibits promising outcomes for all classes of attacks. The scope of our analysis examines attacks targeting the IoT ecosystem using empirically based, simulation-generated datasets (namely the Bot-IoT and the IoTID20 datasets).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bioaerosol Properties using WIBS from SAIL on Mt. Crested Butte, CO

We deployed a Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS-Neo, DMT) to measure different properties of fluorescent bioaerosol particles (FBAP) during SAIL. Our measurements were collected at the supplementary site on Crested Butte Mountain from inside the ARM Aerosol Observing System (AOS) sampling from the AOS inlet. We had two deployment periods at SAIL during biologically active seasons: summer 2022 (15 June 2022 - 13 September 2022) and spring 2023 (21 March 2023 - 19 June 2023). The WIBS is an online single-particle measurement that detects FBAPs (within a size range of 0.5 - 30 microns in diameter) based on the excitation and emission wavelengths of the individual particles. Using two xenon lamps, the WIBS excites FBAPs at 280 nm and 370 nm. Their emission is detected across two wavebands of 310-400 nm and 420-650 nm. We classified the FBAPs into seven different categories (A, B, C, AB, BC, AC, and ABC) using the classification scheme in Perring et. al. (2015) [1]. Here, we report one-minute averaged number concentration of FBAPs (total and by category) and NFBAPs. We also present one-minute-averaged size distributions and the asymmetry factor (AF, a surrogate for shape) of all FBAPs and NFBAPs. The logarithmic bin width of the size bins is the same as the average bin width of the AOS's optical particle counter (OPC, Grimm) for the range of sizes in which they overlap (26 bins from 0.5 - 30 microns). AF of the particles ranges from 0-100 and is divided into five bins with a linear spacing at increments of 20. The smallest AF bin represents more spherical particles while the largest bin represents more rod-shaped particles. We recommend referring to the readme file for more details of the variables present in the files. [1] Perring, A. E., et al. (2015), Airborne observations of regional variation in fluorescent aerosol across the United States, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1153-1170, doi:10.1002/2014JD022495. Abstract and description of the campaign can be found here: https://www.arm.gov/research/cam

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (Droplet Measurements Technology) Data Notes: The WIBS is an online single-particle measurement that detects FBAPs (within a size range of 0.5 - 30 microns in diameter) based on the excitation and emission wavelengths of the individual particles. Using two xenon lamps, the WIBS excites FBAPs at 280 nm and 370 nm. Their emission is detected across two wavebands of 310-400 nm and 420-650 nm. We classified the FBAPs into seven different categories (A, B, C, AB, BC, AC, and ABC) using the classification scheme in Perring et. al. (2015) [1]. Averaged number concentration of FBAPs (total and by category) and particles that non-fluorescent bioaerosols particles (NFBAPs). In separate files, we also present one-minute-averaged size distributions and the asymmetry factor (AF, a surrogate for shape) of all FBAPs and NFBAPs. The logarithmic bin width of the size bins are the same as the average bin width of the AOS's optical particle counter (OPC, Grimm) for the range of sizes in which they overlap (26 bins from 0.5 - 30 microns). AF of the particles ranges from 0-100 and is divided into five bins with a linear spacing at increments of 20. The smallest AF bin represents more spherical particles while the largest bin represents more rod-shaped particles. [1] Perring, A. E., et al. (2015), Airborne observations of regional variation in fluorescent aerosol across the United States, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1153–1170, doi:10.1002/2014JD022495. Abstract and description of the campaign can be found here : https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/amf2023epcape-pt-lanl. Files data_10min_WIBS_AFDist.csv Header: - FBAP_AFDist[/cm3]_Bin_1 to Bin_5: Concentration of fluorescent bioaerosol particles in the each of 5 AF bins, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. Each bin represents a specific range of particle AF, capturing the shapes of FBAPs detected during the measurement. - NFBAP_AFDist[/cm3]_Bin_1 to Bin_5: Concentration of non-fluorescent bioaerosol particles in the each of 5 AF bins, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. Each bin represents a specific range of particle AF, capturing the shapes of NFBAPs detected during the measurement. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement. AF Bins: • Bin 1: 0 – 20 [unitless] • Bin 2: 21 – 40 [unitless] • Bin 3: 41 – 60 [unitless] • Bin 4: 61 – 80 [unitless] • Bin 5: 81 – 100 [unitless] Files data_10min_WIBS_Conc.csv Header: - NumberConcentrationA[/cm3]: Number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by fluorescence channel A, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationB[/cm3]: Number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by fluorescence channel B, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationC[/cm3]: Number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by fluorescence channel C, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationAB[/cm3]: Combined number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by both fluorescence channels A and B, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationBC[/cm3]: Combined number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by both fluorescence channels B and C, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationAC[/cm3]: Combined number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by both fluorescence channels A and C, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationABC[/cm3]: Combined number concentration of bioaerosol particles detected by all three fluorescence channels A, B, and C, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentrationNFBAP[/cm3]: Number concentration of non-fluorescent bioaerosol particles, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement. Files data_10min_WIBS_SizeDist.csv Header: - FBAP_SizeDist[/cm3]_Bin_1 to FBAP_SizeDist[/cm3]_Bin_26: Number concentrations of FBAP in each of 26 size bins, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. Each bin represents a specific range of particle sizes, capturing the size distribution of FBAPs detected during the measurement. - NFBAP_SizeDist[/cm3]_Bin_1 to NFBAP_SizeDist[/cm3]_Bin_26: Number concentrations of NFBAP in each of 26 size bins, measured in particles per cubic centimeter. Similar to FBAP, each bin covers a specific range of particle sizes, detailing the size distribution of NFBAPs detected. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement. Size Bins: • Bin 1: 0.48 to 0.57 μm • Bin 2: 0.57 to 0.67 μm • Bin 3: 0.67 to 0.79 μm • Bin 4: 0.79 to 0.93 μm • Bin 5: 0.93 to 1.1 μm • Bin 6: 1.1 to 1.29 μm • Bin 7: 1.29 to 1.52 μm • Bin 8: 1.52 to 1.8 μm • Bin 9: 1.8 to 2.11 μm • Bin 10: 2.11 to 2.5 μm • Bin 11: 2.5 to 2.94 μm • Bin 12: 2.94 to 3.46 μm • Bin 13: 3.46 to 4.08 μm • Bin 14: 4.08 to 4.81 μm • Bin 15: 4.81 to 5.67 μm • Bin 16: 5.67 to 6.68 μm • Bin 17: 6.68 to 7.88 μm • Bin 18: 7.88 to 9.29 μm • Bin 19: 9.29 to 10.96 μm • Bin 20: 10.96 to 12.92 μm • Bin 21: 12.92 to 15.23 μm • Bin 22: 15.23 to 17.96 μm • Bin 23: 17.96 to 21.17 μm • Bin 24: 21.17 to 24.96 μm • Bin 25: 24.96 to 29.43 μm • Bin 26: 29.43 to 34.70 μm

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observations and Lessons Learned in Residential Roofing Integrated Photovoltaics

The data file includes field observations of residential roofing integrated photovoltaics installation that happened between July 2021 and June 2022 in California. There are 21 observations - 2 in the re-roofing category and 19 in the new construction category. The file includes two time and motion forms (Re-Roofing & New Construction) we used to capture the time it takes for each activity in the rooftop solar and electrical installation process. You will see the duration for detailed steps along with activities that are included for total installation time for the paper. There are three parts to the time and motion form - Part 1 has project and crew characteristics, product information, and inspection and permitting data and can be filled before the installation. Part 2 has the actual installation time stamps and related notes. Part 3 has the crew information and can be filled on-site or off-site, but this section is optional. The re-roofing form has pre-solar activities and gutters and vents section in Part 2 of the form, whereas new construction form includes a section for capturing the time it took for rough wiring. The re-roofing form does not include rough wiring but instead includes the final electrical wiring process. These are the key differences in both the forms. Each day/step/installation activity needs to include the crew break time as they happen and there is space available to capture the crew breaks duration. In Table 1 below, the different terms used in the time and motion form are defined and their corresponding unit of measurement stated. We also highlight the optional sections. The data is captured in total mins, total hours, person mins, person hours. You can use this form or make edits to the form to recreate the study or make your own observations. The data herein was reviewed but may not be comprehensive. NREL invites questions and inputs to improve the data, including to: Correct erroneous information Fill in missing/updated information Clarifications on data and variables Updated information may be submitted to Sushmita Jena at sushmita.jena@nlr.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

ADVANCING THE TRANSPORTATION – SECURITY, TRACKING, AND REPORTING (T-STAR) SYSTEM

The Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System was developed by NNSA NA-21 Office of Radiological Security (ORS) to provide a transportation security system for use during transport of Category 1 and Category 2 radiological material to provide detection and tracking capability for shipments. While many off the shelf systems provide asset tracking of the conveyance, few offer detection of a breach into the cargo compartment or the removal of cargo from the conveyance. Systems that do offer such capability need to be permanently installed on the conveyance, requiring drilling of holes and running of cables throughout the conveyance itself. This means that dedicated shipping containers or vehicles are required, and this is not sustainable in many countries where ORS is building capacity for the security of radioactive materials in use, storage, and in transport. T-STAR is leveraging various ORNL technologies for improved communications capability and reduced power requirements; the multimode communications module developed by the Unmanned Aerial Systems group and the low power and extensible Authenticatable Container Tracking System (ACTS) tag developed for the US Department of Energy’s Packaging Certification Program provide a small footprint tracking system which can be installed quickly as needed. T-STAR uses a cellular and an Iridium modem to communicate configuration and alert information to a server used to monitor the shipment and incorporates a Z-wave © wireless security system allowing various intrusion detection sensors to be located in the conveyance. The Z-wave sensors are readily available, inexpensive, and power efficient, making them replaceable and low maintenance. The server software be configured as a standalone system installed on a light duty computer hosted by the competent authority, carrier, or response agency, or hosted as part of an Amazon Cloud Server (AWS) accessible via a secure login. The server has two functions, first is to handle messages to/from the T-STAR field unit, second is to host the user interface which can be accessed using a web browser on desktop or mobile device. The user interface implements roles to determine the level of access to shipment information, define geo-fences, and configure notifications. The user interface also supports multiple languages for display as well as notifications by using a simple lookup file which can be modified by the host country to ensure translations are correct and meaningful to responders receiving notifications and alerts. This paper will detail the overarching T-STAR capabilities, architecture and components, and provide insights on how it is deployed, used, and monitored during transportation of radioactive material.

Schultze, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Business Case Analysis for Digital Safety-Related Instrumentation & Control System Modernizations

This LWRS research seeks to assist in breaking the impasse which has precluded digital safety system upgrades by generating and demonstrating a process and related business case tool to enable a Business Case Analysis (BCA). The purpose of a BCA is to show such upgrades can be economically justified. This BCA methodology first systematically establishes a forecast of expected lifecycle costs for I&C identified for upgrade by: • Definitively bounding the scope of current I&C systems envisioned for upgrade. • Collecting historical labor and material usage data that bound cost contributors related to the systems to be upgraded. • Synthesizing and analyzing the data to establish lifecycle cost forecasts for the current systems. In collaboration with engineers familiar with the attributes of the digital equipment to be used in the upgrade and how it is envisioned to be applied, cost savings categories and expected savings in those categories are then identified and applied using the analysis tools developed for this purpose. The result is an estimate NPV of savings enabled by the upgrade. This includes both direct cost savings (e.g., surveillance labor costs) as well as cost avoidance items (e.g., inventory carrying costs). Finally, when utility-provided digital upgrade costs estimates are included, the resultant BCA provides an NPV for the upgrade project. Development of a useful BCA methodology requires a real-world basis. With the cooperation of Exelon Generation (“Owner”), an Exelon-owned 2-Unit BWR Station (“Station”) was used as the foundation for this research. Exelon is pursuing a digital upgrade of current, first-echelon, safety-related I&C systems at these units, including the following: • Reactor Protection System (RPS) • Nuclear Steam Supply Shutoff System (N4S) • Emergency Core Cooling Systems (ECCS) • Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) Mitigation System

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis of the Transport and Disposal of Beryllium Moderator Blocks and Greater than Class C (GTCC) Waste

Radioactive waste in the United states is categorized based on its source, radioactivity, and security risk. The categorization method employed by the Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) for low-level radioactive waste is not currently applied to any waste generated by the Department of Energy (DOE) or disposed of in DOE facilities. As a result, there is a large volume of DOE-generated waste with characteristics similar to the NRC’s “Greater than Class C” (GTCC) waste category which presently do not have a path for long-term disposal. Much of this waste cannot undergo the standard commercial disposition process due to it being categorized as Transuranic (TRU) waste under DOE guidelines, due to elevated concentrations of key fission products. Possible solutions to this dilemma are explored in the Environmental Impact Statement for the “Disposal of Greater-Than-Class-C Low Level Radioactive Wave” (EIS-0375). This paper analyzes several EIS possible paths for disposal for this “orphaned” waste. One example that highlights this categorization issue is the spent beryllium cladding that has been extracted from the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) throughout its operational lifetime. These beryllium blocks surround the reactor’s main chambers and components and serve as neutron moderators. This paper will use this particular waste form to analyze the economic and technological viability of transporting and storing this material under the storage and transportation criteria of the Waste isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which was deemed the most feasible disposition path according to the EIS. The example of this waste form used in this paper that highlights this categorization issue is the spent beryllium cladding extracted from Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). These beryllium blocks surround the reactor’s components and serve as neutron moderators, and thus have accumulated high concentration of high-activity transuranic isotopes. This paper analyzed the viability of transporting and storing this material under the storage and transportation criteria of the five primary disposition paths covered in EIS-0375. An array of calculations was carried out to assess the viability of the various disposition paths for the beryllium shipments as well as other waste shipments that fall within the GTCC category. Modeling with MCNP 6.2 was conducted to determine whether the beryllium blocks could be safely stored and transported within a 72-B cask; the standard shipping container for remote-handled, transuranic waste, while also meeting regulatory limits at various disposition paths. A cost analysis of the transportation and long-term disposal paths mentioned in the EIS was also carried out using available data and information from similar waste shipments. Lastly, a geochemical analysis of the various geological repository discussed in the EIS was also carried out using the Geochemists Workbench Release 14. Long-term disposal of the beryllium blocks at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) proved to be the most cost-effective long-term disposition option of the ones considered in the EIS. A dose rate calculation at both contact and remote-handling distances indicate that the analyzed beryllium shipments should not exceed the exposure limits at any of the considered locations. Greater-than-class-C waste has been left in a regulatory state of limbo for years, resulting in backlogs of inventory across several research sites in the United States. Due to its high activity and presence of transuranic isotopes, it is imperative to ensure that it remains inaccessible and sequestered both in its short-term interim as well as a long-term geologic time scale. The information and assessments done in the paper could potentially serve as a reference for any future shipments of this waste form at the WIPP facility as well as other disposition paths that may be considered in the future.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Designing for Supply and Return Air System Interaction in Residential Buildings

Standard practice for HVAC return design has evolved from running a dedicated return to each room with a supply, to systems with returns in more centrally located areas of the home with jump ducts, transfer grilles, or simply door undercuts used as return air pathways from isolated rooms . In these latter systems, hallways and stairwells act as large open ducts for conveying air back to a single (or sometimes multiple) central return. When partition doors to an isolated room are closed, the return airflow resistance goes up, significantly impacting airflow balance if an adequate relief pathway is not installed. Airflow imbalances can lead to comfort and building durability issues and increased envelope leakage. To combat this, some jurisdictions have requirements for return air pathways. The supply system topology – or layout - impacts the airflow balance stability in response to adjustments of return pathway resistances. Branching supply topologies typically have reduced static pressure after each split. The static pressure at the final split will be lower than the primary supply plenum. Because of this, if there is a restriction in a room’s return path, supply airflow will tend to redistribute to adjacent ducts at the end of the branch. A properly designed trunk and branch supply system can effectively equalize static pressure by reducing the cross sectional area after each takeoff . Maintaining static pressure within the trunk will reduce the system’s sensitivity to changes in return paths. However, in practice, it is difficult to design and time consuming to install a complex supply plenum. Velocity effects and poor takeoff placement also impact airflow balance. This fact sheet considers return systems in three main categories: distributed, with a return duct to each room; multiple central, with one return grille on each floor of a home; and single central, with a single return grille located near the air handling unit. Three supply categories are also considered: radial splitter box, trunk and branch, and home-run with all ducts connecting directly to a central manifold. A complete description of the modeling work and results can be found in the companion technical report.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2021

Personal Resiliency Index

A plethora of information exists in literature focusing on different aspects of personal resilience. There are a number of questionnaires available to measure resilience in different aspects of an individual’s life, such as mental health. However, there is a lack of comprehensive information on the subject of personal resilience to natural and man-made disasters. A Personal Resiliency Index identifying four key areas of resilience related to natural and man-made disasters will help fill this gap by providing individuals an idea of where the stand comparatively to their peers on this topics. As an increasing amount of man-made disasters, natural disasters and pandemics occur, we realize that preparation is key.?“Crisis can be experienced at individual, group and mass levels and at local, regional, national or supra-national levels.” 1? Dr. Ron Fisher, the principal investigator has over 20 years’ critical infrastructure protection including developing vulnerability assessment methodology, risk and resiliency analyses and infrastructure interdependencies. Dr. Fisher and his team will research and develop a voluntary survey which evaluates the user’s personal resilience level to natural and man-made disasters. The research team is focusing on 4 main categories:? financial resilience, cyber security, physical and mental health, and emergency preparedness.?The web based application will?provide a resilience score for each of the categories and also a comprehensive personal resiliency score based on the voluntary survey. The application will also provide feedback to the user on actions to take to become more resilient to natural and man-made disasters. Through this effort, we will also be able to identify the areas where participants are excelling as well as opportunities for improvement in terms of resilience. This information will provide insight into areas of further investigation and identify potential areas of support needed for the general public to adopt strategies to become more resilient. 1 Lynott, William. “Surviving a Natural (or Man-Made) Disaster: How to Prepare for and Bounce Back? from a Crisis in Your Business | 2018-02-01 | NOLN.” Home Page, NOLN, 1 Feb. 2018, https://www.noln.net/articles/2683-surviving-a-natural-or-man-made-disaster-how-to-prepare-for-and-bounce-back-from-a-crisis-in-your-business.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Power System Event Detection and Classification Using Unlabeled PMU Data

This paper proposes a novel data-driven power system event detection and classification method based on 5TB of actual PMU measurements collected from the US western interconnect. Firstly, a set of comprehensive power quality rules are proposed to pre-filter the raw data and extract the regions of interest (ROI). Six distinct event categories are defined and corresponding patterns are chosen as references. Meanwhile, detailed characteristics of patterns are summarized to enhance our understanding of the actual events. Then, the time-independent feature vectors are generated by extracting the statistical, temporal, and spectral features from the raw time-series data. Furthermore, an ensemble model is proposed to cluster the events by combining multiple K-means clustering models using a voting strategy. Besides, both system-level and PMU-level clustering models are developed. The accuracy and robustness of the event detection method are further improved through interactive evaluation of the two-level clustering results. This paper summarizes the actual characteristics of each event category and provides a reliable basis for accurate label generation. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed event detection and classification method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Power System Event Detection and Classification Using Unlabeled PMU Data

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Retiring environmental risks of marine renewable energy devices: The “habitat change” case

The installation, presence, operation, and decommissioning of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices inevitably alters the surrounding ocean habitats. These changes may include direct effects on the benthos from the installation or removal of foundations and anchors, changes in community composition on and near devices, artificial reef effects, and indirect effects such as alteration of the food web or facilitation of non-native, invasive species dispersal. Although there is no expectation that MRE devices affect marine environments differently than other anthropogenic ocean uses, regulators and stakeholders continue to have questions about potential negative impacts to species and habitats from development. Research studies and survey reports that inform our understanding of habitat changes related to MRE devices and associated equipment were compiled into an evidence base, sorted into categories of effects, and evaluated by a group of international experts to assess potential risk to habitats and biota from small numbers of MRE devices, as well as to identify knowledge gaps. These gaps were organized by category and divided up by relevance to consenting, research, or project development and monitoring responsibilities. Identifying these “known unknowns” allows for study design and collaboration from various perspectives to fill the knowledge gaps. Distribution of the evidence base and remaining uncertainties and knowledge gaps to the MRE community, coupled with new research, will help advance the MRE industry while resolving concerns about the potential risks of habitat change for small numbers of devices.

Hemery, Lenaig G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

EMERGING CYBER-PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE OF TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY

Technology is rapidly progressing in transportation and shipping industries across the globe, including the nuclear, radioactive and hazardous material transportation sectors. With this progress comes unprecedented opportunities for improved transparency, safety, and security in transportation, as well as novel threat surfaces and attack vectors. Therefore, the transport safety and security interface is affected through the application of these technologies. We provide an investigative overview of the developing fields of “trans-tech” or “freight- tech” with a look towards technology development and adoption over the next 3-5 years across three primary categories: Transportation IoT (Internet of Things), Smart Infrastructure, and digitization of transportation management. We also investigate the safety and security implications of utilizing these technologies. Each of these categories presents novel threats as well as opportunities. We examine the role of technology in each as an emerging cyber-physical threat to nuclear and radioactive material transportation security, and plausible mitigation considerations at both the state and operator levels in additional to opportunities for addressing the interface between safety and security.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fuzzy Simplicial Networks: A Topology-Inspired Model to Improve Task Generalization in Few-shot Learning

Deep learning has shown great success in settings with massive amounts of data but has struggled when data is limited. Few-shot learning algorithms, which seek to address this limitation, are designed to generalize well to new tasks with limited data. Typically, models are evaluated on unseen classes and datasets that are defined by the same fundamental task as they are trained for (e.g. category membership). One can also ask how well a model can generalize to fundamentally different tasks within a fixed dataset (for example: moving from category membership to tasks that involve detecting object orientation or quantity). To formalize this kind of shift we define a notion of “independence of tasks” and identify three new sets of labels for established computer vision datasets that test a model's ability to generalize to tasks which draw on orthogonal attributes in the data. We use these datasets to investigate the failure modes of metric-based few-shot models. Based on our findings, we introduce a new few-shot model called Fuzzy Simplicial Networks (FSN) which leverages a construction from topology to more flexibly represent each class from limited data. In particular, FSN models can not only form multiple representations for a given class but can also begin to capture the low-dimensional structure which characterizes class manifolds in the encoded space of deep networks. We show that FSN outperforms state-of-the-art models on the challenging tasks we introduce in this paper while remaining competitive on standard few-shot benchmarks.

deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2022

MSW Variability Mapping and Conversion to Biofuel

MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) is a form of biomass which consists of categorized components of waste/trash. The general categories are paper, yard trash, construction & debris, appliances, tires, glass, metals, aluminum & steel cans, plastics, organics, inorganics, and HHW (Household Hazardous Waste). This project focuses on the factors within a region or population that contribute to variability in the composition of MSW and in turn MSW’s convertibility to biofuel. A list of contributors was determined (Social Vulnerability Index, Access to Public Transportation, Racial Distribution, GDP, Personal Income) and then JMP was used to perform a Multivariate analysis to determine correlations and a Partial Least-Squares regression to determine Variable Importance Plots for each MSW category. In addition to data analysis, the convertibility of MSW to biofuel was studied via microwave pyrolysis system in order to separate and characterize the various gaseous and bio-oil products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗