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At least 271 records · Page 15

A tutorial on the CARE III approach to reliability modeling

The CARE 3 reliability model for aircraft avionics and control systems is described by utilizing a number of examples which frequently use state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques as a basis for their exposition. Behavioral decomposition followed by aggregration were used in an attempt to deal with reliability models with a large number of states. A comprehensive set of models of the fault-handling processes in a typical fault-tolerant system was used. These models were semi-Markov in nature, thus removing the usual restrictions of exponential holding times within the coverage model. The aggregate model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain, thus allowing the times to failure to posses Weibull-like distributions. Because of the departures from traditional models, the solution method employed is that of Kolmogorov integral equations, which are evaluated numerically.

Trivedi, K. S.↗

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Siegrist, K.↗

Metallicities of Emission-Line Galaxies from HST ACS PEARS and HST WFC3 ERS Grism Spectroscopy at 0.6 is less than z is less than 2.4

Galaxies selected on the basis of their emission line strength. show low metallicities, regardless of their redshifts. We conclude this from a sample of faint galaxies at redshifts between 0.6 < z < 2.4, selected by their prominent emission lines in low resolution grism spectra in the optiCa.i with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and in the near-infrared using Wide-Field Camera 3 (WFC3). Using a sample of 11 emission line galaxies (ELGs) at 0.6 < z < 2.4 with luminosities of -22 approx < MB approx -19 which have [OII], H-Beta, and [OIII] line flux measurements from the combination of two grism spectral surveys, we use the R23 method to derive the gas-phase oxygen abundances: 7.5 <12+log(0/H)<8.5. The galaxy stellar masses are derived using Bayesian based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pi MC(exp 2)) fitting of their Spectral Energy Distribution (SED), and span the mass range 8.1 < log(M(stellar)/M(solar)) < 10.1. These galaxies show a mass-metal1icity (M-L) and Luminosity-Metallicity (LZ) relation, which is offset by -<J.6 dex in meta1licity at given absolute magnitude and stellar mass relative to the local SDSS galaxies, as well as continuum selected DEEP2 samples at similar redshifts. The emission-line selected galaxies most resemble the local "green peas" galaxies and Lyman-alpha galaxies at z approx = 0.3 and z approx = 2.3 in the M-Z and L-Z relations and their morphologies. The G - M(sub 20) morphology analysis shows that 10 out of 11 show disturbed morphology, even as the star-forming regions are compact. These galaxies may be intrinsically metal poor, being at early stages of formation, or the low metallicities may be due to gas infall and accretion due to mergers.

Xia, Lifang↗

Longitudinal Differences of Ionospheric Vertical Density Distribution and Equatorial Electrodynamics

Accurate estimation of global vertical distribution of ionospheric and plasmaspheric density as a function of local time, season, and magnetic activity is required to improve the operation of space-based navigation and communication systems. The vertical density distribution, especially at low and equatorial latitudes, is governed by the equatorial electrodynamics that produces a vertical driving force. The vertical structure of the equatorial density distribution can be observed by using tomographic reconstruction techniques on ground-based global positioning system (GPS) total electron content (TEC). Similarly, the vertical drift, which is one of the driving mechanisms that govern equatorial electrodynamics and strongly affect the structure and dynamics of the ionosphere in the low/midlatitude region, can be estimated using ground magnetometer observations. We present tomographically reconstructed density distribution and the corresponding vertical drifts at two different longitudes: the East African and west South American sectors. Chains of GPS stations in the east African and west South American longitudinal sectors, covering the equatorial anomaly region of meridian approx. 37 deg and 290 deg E, respectively, are used to reconstruct the vertical density distribution. Similarly, magnetometer sites of African Meridian B-field Education and Research (AMBER) and INTERMAGNET for the east African sector and South American Meridional B-field Array (SAMBA) and Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) are used to estimate the vertical drift velocity at two distinct longitudes. The comparison between the reconstructed and Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measured density profiles shows excellent agreement, demonstrating the usefulness of tomographic reconstruction technique in providing the vertical density distribution at different longitudes. Similarly, the comparison between magnetometer estimated vertical drift and other independent drift observation, such as from VEFI onboard Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite and JULIA radar, is equally promising. The observations at different longitudes suggest that the vertical drift velocities and the vertical density distribution have significant longitudinal differences; especially the equatorial anomaly peaks expand to higher latitudes more in American sector than the African sector, indicating that the vertical drift in the American sector is stronger than the African sector.

total electron content↗

Beyond universal behavior in the one-dimensional chain with random nearest-neighbor hopping

Here, we study the one-dimensional nearest-neighbor tight-binding model of electrons with independently distributed random hopping and no on-site potential (i.e., off-diagonal disorder with particle-hole symmetry, leading to sublattice symmetry, for each realization). For nonsingular distributions of the hopping, it is known that the model exhibits a universal, singular behavior of the density of states $ρ(E) ~ 1/|E\: \text{ln}^3 |E||$ and of the localization length $ξ(E) ~ |\text{ln}|E||$, near the band center $\textit{E}$ = 0 . (This singular behavior is also applicable to random $\textit{XY}$ and Heisenberg spin chains; it was first obtained by Dyson for a specific random harmonic oscillator chain.) Simultaneously, the state at$\textit{E}$ = 0 shows a universal, subexponential decay at large distances $\sim \text{exp}[–\sqrt{r/r_0}]$. In this study, we consider singular, but normalizable, distributions of hopping, whose behavior at small $\textit{t}$ is of the form $\sim 1/[t \text{ln}^{λ+1}(1/t)]$, characterized by a single, continuously tunable parameter λ > 0. We find, using a combination of analytic and numerical methods, that while the universal result applies for λ > 2, it no longer holds in the interval 0 < λ < 2. In particular, we find that the form of the density of states singularity is enhanced (relative to the Dyson result) in a continuous manner depending on the nonuniversal parameter λ; simultaneously, the localization length shows a less divergent form at low energies and ceases to diverge below λ = 1. For λ < 2, the fall-off of the $\textit{E}$ = 0 state at large distances also deviates from the universal result and is of the form $\sim\text{exp}[–(r/r_0)^{1/λ}]$ , which decays faster than an exponential for λ < 1.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Pyrolysis of bio-derived dioxolane fuels: A ReaxFF molecular dynamics study

Alkyl-substituted 1,3-dioxolanes, including 4,5-dimethyl-2-pentan-3-yl-1,3-dioxolane (Fuel 1), 4,5-dimethyl-2-pentyl-1,3-dioxolane (Fuel 2), and 2-(heptan-3-yl)-4,5-dimethyl-1,3-dioxolane (Fuel 3), have been recently suggested as potential biodiesels. In this paper, we investigate the initial pyrolysis of the alkyl-substituted 1,3-dioxolanes at high temperatures using ReaxFF molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We analyze the decomposition rate, reaction mechanism, and product distribution in the pyrolysis of the three alkyl 1,3-dioxlanes. The three fuels primarily decompose to 4,5-dimethyl-1,3-dioxolane radical and hydrocarbons derived from the alkyl side-chains. The further decomposition of 4,5-dimethyl-1,3-dioxolane radical primarily leads to 2-C 4 H 8 and CO 2 within a few decomposition steps. The hydrocarbon product distribution is significantly affected by the molecular structure of the alkyl side-chain, which would have a strong influence on the sooting tendency of these fuels. The ReaxFF simulations predict that the order of sooting tendency would be Fuel 3 > Fuel 1 > Fuel 2, which agrees with the measured sooting tendency trend. Based on the pyrolysis mechanism identified by ReaxFF, we propose a new alkyl dioxolane, 4-hexyl-5-methyl-1,3-dioxolane (Fuel 4), which might produce even less soot, by modifying the molecular structure of Fuel 2. Our ReaxFF simulation shows that Fuel 4 produce much less C 4 H 8 , an effective non-aromatic soot precursor, than Fuel 2. Moreover, more carbon atoms are bonded to each oxygen atom in Fuel 4 than Fuel 2, which would help reduce soot yield by removing more carbon atoms from the soot-producing pool of species. The major decomposition pathways identified in this work can be used to develop chemical kinetic models for 1,3-dioxolane based compounds, as biodiesel components, applicable to combustion engine simulations. We also demonstrate that the chemical kinetic insight offered by ReaxFF simulations can be used to design new fuel molecules with more desired properties.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Effects of Ionic Group Distribution on the Structure and Dynamics of Amorphous Polymer Melts

Ionizable groups tethered to a polymer backbone often associate to form ionic clusters, whose features are determined by the balance of the polymer backbone and electrostatics. These assemblies impact the dynamics of the macromolecules and their ability to transport ions. Here, using fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we investigate the effects of the distribution of ionizable groups along the polymer backbone on cluster characteristics and the resulting impacts on the structure and dynamics of amorphous polymers. Particularly, we probe polystyrene sulfonates (PSS) with random, precise, and block configurations of the SO 3 – sulfonate groups along the backbone with Na + as the counterion. We find that the distribution of the ionic groups affects the shape and distribution of the clusters as well as the internal packing of the ionizable groups in the cluster and the number of unique chains that participate in each cluster, affecting the structure and the dynamics of the polymers. Furthermore, the signature of ionic clusters, observed in the static structure factor S(q) for all three distributions, is significantly more pronounced for the precise and blocky polymers compared to the random one. Remarkably, we find that the local mobility of the polymer segments is not only affected by the number and size of the clusters but also by the number of polymer chains associated with clusters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bridging the gap between NMR measured mean silicate chain length and nano-scale silicate polymorphism of calcium silicate hydrates

Variable stoichiometry and silicate polymorphism in calcium-silicate-hydrates (C-S-H) has impeded the revelation of point defects distribution in the silicate tetrahedral network of C-S-H, which resembles tobermorite crystal structure with some bridging tetrahedra (BT) and paired tetrahedra (PT) vacancies in dreierketten chains. Here we use a computational approach to characterize silicate polymorphism by introducing the vacancy ratio of BT to PT (α) and establishing a three-term empirical mean chain length (MCL) formula for different calcium-to‑silicon ratios (Ca/Si) ranging from 1.2 to 2.3. The formula identifies BT and PT controls at low and high α respectively and allows an inverse mapping of polymorphic range based on NMR experiments. The proposed computational framework quantitatively describes silicate polymorphs and links NMR-measured MCL to C-S-H atomistic configurations at the molecular level.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surveying Phase Modifier Functional Groups for Applications to Ln(III) Separations

The application of N,N,N',N'-tetraoctyl diglycolamide (TODGA) in solvent extraction systems for lanthanide (Ln) separations is well understood. In these systems, the formation of a third phase has motivated the use of phase modifiers to enable higher concentrations of H + and Ln common to industrial processes. Several different phase modifiers with applications to diglycolamide (DGA) systems have previously been reported, with a focus on tri-n-butyl phosphate (TBP), N,N'-dihexylactanamide (DHOA), N,N-dioctyl-2-hydroxyacetamide (DOHyA), N,N'-dimethyl-N,N'-dioctylhexylethoxy malonamide (DMDOHEMA), and octanol. While the primary utility of phase modifiers is the increased metal loading, they can have significant effects on the metal distribution ratios, which are well described by the energetics of the extraction process itself. However, the mechanisms by which phase modifiers impact distribution ratios are not generally understood. This work considers the ability of phase modifiers to affect Ln distribution ratios by using phase modifiers with two different functional groups (–Cl and –C≡N) and an octyl alkyl chain in a TODGA and n-dodecane system. Determining the effect of chlorooctane and octane nitrile is important for understanding how phase modifier functional groups and their hydrogen bonding interactions affect Ln extraction. Through combining distribution ratio measurements with organic phase spectroscopic investigations, the impact of chlorooctane and octane nitrile on Ln extraction and their inner-sphere complexes is reported. The addition of either chlorooctane or octane nitrile to TODGA in n-dodecane decreases Ln extraction while maintaining the same inner-sphere Ln complex. The lack of change in inner-sphere Ln-TODGA coordination upon incorporation of phase modifiers and the significant impact of these phase modifiers on distribution ratios suggest the importance of a supramolecular structure. Understanding the role of chlorooctane and octane nitrile on the organic phase structure at longer length scales has been identified as an avenue for future investigations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Load sharing in distributed real-time systems with state-change broadcasts

A decentralized dynamic load-sharing (LS) method based on state-change broadcasts is proposed for a distributed real-time system. Whenever the state of a node changes from underloaded to fully loaded and vice versa, the node broadcasts this change to a set of nodes, called a buddy set, in the system. The performance of the method is evaluated with both analytic modeling and simulation. It is modeled first by an embedded Markov chain for which numerical solutions are derived. The model solutions are then used to calculate the distribution of queue lengths at the nodes and the probability of meeting task deadlines. The analytical results show that buddy sets of 10 nodes outperform those of less than 10 nodes, and the incremental benefit gained from increasing the buddy set size beyond 15 nodes is insignificant. These and other analytical results are verified by simulation. The proposed LS method is shown to meet task deadlines with a very high probability.

Shin, Kang G.↗

Beyond the universal Dyson singularity for 1-D chains with hopping disorder

We study a simple non-interacting nearest neighbor tight-binding model in one dimension with disorder, where the hopping terms are chosen randomly. This model exhibits a well-known singularity at the band center both in the density of states and localization length. If the probability distribution of the hopping terms is well-behaved, then the singularities exhibit universal behavior, the functional form of which was first discovered by Freeman Dyson in the context of a chain of classical harmonic oscillators. We show here that this universal form can be violated in a tunable manner if the hopping elements are chosen from a divergent probability distribution. We also demonstrate a connection between a breakdown of universality in this quantum problem and an analogous scenario in the classical domain — that of random walks and diffusion with anomalous exponents.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Size-Controlled Nanoparticles Embedded in a Mesoporous Architecture Leading to Efficient and Selective Hydrogenolysis of Polyolefins

A catalytic architecture, comprising a mesoporous silica shell surrounding platinum nanoparticles (NPs) supported on a solid silica sphere (mSiO2/Pt-X/SiO2; X is the mean NP diameter), catalyzes hydrogenolysis of melt-phase polyethylene (PE) into a narrow C23-centered distribution of hydrocarbons in high yield using very low Pt loadings (~10 -5 g Pt/g PE). During catalysis, a polymer chain enters a pore and contacts a Pt NP where the C–C bond cleavage occurs and then the smaller fragment exits the pore. mSiO 2 /Pt/SiO 2 resists sintering or leaching of Pt and provides high yields of liquids; however, many structural and chemical effects on catalysis are not yet resolved. Here, we report the effects of Pt NP size on activity and selectivity in PE hydrogenolysis. Time-dependent conversion and yields and a lumped kinetics model based on the competitive adsorption of long vs short chains reveal that the activity of catalytic material is highest with the smallest NPs, consistent with a structure-sensitive reaction. Remarkably, the three mSiO 2 /Pt-X/SiO 2 catalysts give equivalent selectivity. We propose that mesoscale pores in the catalytic architecture template the C 23 -centered distribution, whereas the active Pt sites influence the carbon–carbon bond cleavage rate. This conclusion provides a framework for catalyst design by separating the C–C bond cleavage activity at catalytic sites from selectivity for chain lengths of the products influenced by the structure of the catalytic architecture. The increased activity, selectivity, efficiency, and lifetime obtained using this architecture highlight the benefits of localized and confined environments for isolated catalytic particles under condensed-phase reaction conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify uncertainty in settings where the data is independent and identically distributed (IID), or more generally, exchangeable. Conformal prediction takes in a pre-trained classifier and a calibration dataset as inputs, and returns a function which maps feature vectors to subsets of classes. The output of the returned function for a new feature vector is guaranteed to contain the true class with a pre-specified confidence. Despite its success and usefulness in IID settings, extending conformal prediction to non-exchangeable (e.g., Markovian) data in a manner that provably preserves all desirable theoretical properties has largely remained an open problem. As a solution, we extend conformal prediction to the setting of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with unknown parameters. The key idea behind the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti’s Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are then viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework and is general enough to be useful in many sequential prediction problems.

Nettasinghe, Don Buddhika Wijayantha↗

Bead–Spring Simulation of Ionomer Melts—Studying the Effects of Chain-Length and Associating Group Fraction on Equilibrium Structure and Extensional Flow Behavior

Ionomers are associative polymers with diverse applications ranging from selective membranes and high-performance adhesives to abrasion- and chemical-resistant coatings, insulation layers, vacuum packaging, and foamed sheets. Within equilibrium melt, the ionic or associating groups are known to form thermally reversible, associative clusters whose presence can significantly affect the system’s mechanical, viscoelastic, and transport properties. It is, thus, of great interest to understand how to control such clusters’ size distribution, shape, and stability through the designed choice of polymer architecture and the ionic groups’ fraction, arrangement, and interaction strength. In this work, we represent linear associating polymers using a Kremer–Grest type bead–spring model and perform large-scale MD simulations to explore the effect of polymer chain-length (l) and fraction (f s ) of randomly placed associating groups on the size distribution and stability of formed clusters. We consider different chain-lengths (below and above entanglement), varying fractions of associating groups (represented by ‘sticky’ beads) between 5 and 20%, and a fixed sticky–sticky nonbond interaction strength of four times that between regular non-associating beads. For all melts containing associating groups the equilibrium structure factor S(q) displays a signature ionomer peak at low wave vector q whose intensity increases with increasing f s and l. The average cluster size Nc increases with f s . However, the effect of chain-length on Nc appears to be pronounced only at higher values of f s . Under extensional flows, the computed stress (and viscosity) is higher at higher f s and l regardless of strain rate. Beyond a critical strain rate, we observe fragmentation of the associative clusters, which has interesting effects on the stress/viscous response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deep learning potential of mean force between polymer grafted nanoparticles

Grafting polymer chains on the surfaces of nanoparticles is a well-known route to control their self-assembly and distribution in a polymer matrix. A wide variety of self-assembled structures are achieved by changing the grafting patterns on the surface of an individual nanoparticle. However, an accurate estimation of the effective potential of mean force between a pair of grafted nanoparticles that determines their assembly and distribution in a polymer matrix is an outstanding challenge in nanoscience. We address this problem via deep learning. As a proof of concept, here we report a deep learning framework that learns the interaction between a pair of single-chain grafted spherical nanoparticles from their molecular dynamics trajectory. Subsequently, we carry out the deep learning potential of mean force-based molecular simulation that predicts the self-assembly of a large number of single-chain grafted nanoparticles into various anisotropic superstructures, including percolating networks and bilayers depending on the nanoparticle concentration in three-dimensions. The deep learning potential of mean force-predicted self-assembled superstructures are consistent with the actual superstructures of single-chain polymer grafted spherical nanoparticles. This deep learning framework is very generic and extensible to more complex systems including multiple-chain grafted nanoparticles. Finally, we expect that this deep learning approach will accelerate the characterization and prediction of the self-assembly and phase behaviour of polymer-grafted and unfunctionalized nanoparticles in free space or a polymer matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Activity-induced regulation of myosin isoform distribution - Comparison of two contractile activity programs

This study examined the role of specific types of contractile activity in regulating myosin heavy chain (MHC) isoform expression in rodent soleus. A combination of hindlimb suspension (SN) and two programmed contractile training activity paradigms, either isometric contractile activity (ST-IM) or high-load slowly shortening isovelocity activity, were utilized. Both training paradigms increased muscle mass compared with SN alone. However, only ST-IM resulted in a partial prevention of the suspension-induced decrease in type I MHC. With the use of a fluorescently labeled antibody to type IIa MHC, the distribution of MHCs among fibers was examined immunohistochemically. In SN, the percentage of cells staining positive for type IIa MHC was increased but the staining intensity of the positively staining cells was unchanged compared with control cells. In the ST-IM soleus, the percentage of positively staining fibers was unchanged but the intensity of the positively staining cells was decreased compared with SN values. These results suggest that 1) isometric contractile activity is more effective than isovelocity activity in preventing suspension-induced shifts in soleus MHC distribution and 2) changes associated with both suspension and training occur in only a small number of fibers, with the majority of fibers apparently unresponsive to these interventions.

Diffee, Gary M.↗

Induced Markov chain for wind farm generation forecasting

Systems and methods for forecasting power generation in a wind farm are disclosed. The systems and methods utilize an induced Markov chain model to generate a forecast of power generation of the wind farm. The forecast is at least one of a point forecast or a distributional forecast. Additionally, the systems and methods modify at least one of: (i) a generation of electricity at a power plant coupled to a common power grid as the wind farm; or (ii) a distribution of electricity in the common power grid based on the forecast of power generation of the wind farm. In an exemplary approach, utilizing the induced Markov chain model to generate the forecast may include determining a series of time adjacent power output measurements based on historical wind power measurements and calculating a time series of difference values based on the series of time adjacent power output measurements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗