Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate change predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2

Cloud albedo susceptibility to droplet number perturbation remains a source of uncertainty in understanding aerosol–cloud interactions and thus both past and present climate states. Through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v2 experiments, we probe the effects of competing processes on cloud albedo susceptibility of low-lying marine stratocumulus in the northeast Pacific. In present-day conditions, we find that increasing precipitation suppression by aerosols increases cloud albedo susceptibility, whereas increasing cloud sedimentation decreases it. By constructing a hypothetical model configuration exhibiting negative susceptibility under all conditions, we conclude that cloud albedo change due to aerosol perturbation cannot be predicted by present-day co-variabilities in E3SM v2. As such, our null result herein challenges the assumption that present-day climate observations are sufficient to constrain past states, at least in the context of cloud albedo changes to aerosol perturbation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate and hydraulic traits interact to set thresholds for liana viability

Lianas, or woody vines, and trees dominate the canopy of tropical forests and comprise the majority of tropical aboveground carbon storage. These growth forms respond differently to contemporary variation in climate and resource availability, but their responses to future climate change are poorly understood because there are very few predictive ecosystem models representing lianas. We compile a database of liana functional traits (846 species) and use it to parameterize a mechanistic model of liana-tree competition. The substantial difference between liana and tree hydraulic conductivity represents a critical source of inter-growth form variation. Here, we show that lianas are many times more sensitive to drying atmospheric conditions than trees as a result of this trait difference. Further, we use our competition model and projections of tropical hydroclimate based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 to show that lianas are more susceptible to reaching a hydraulic threshold for viability by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, triggering tree mortality, ecosystem transitions, and changes to the coastal carbon cycle. However, the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain elusive due to the complex interplay between belowground and aboveground processes during flooding disturbances and limitations of observations typically reported in coastal forest mortality studies. We used an ecosystem-scale manipulation to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. Monitoring real-time soil conditions and tree physiological responses, we observed consistent impacts on soil biogeochemistry aligned with belowground drivers of tree mortality, but no consistent responses in aboveground vegetation immediately following flooding. Our findings provide empirically based insight into the earliest stages of a hypothesized forest mortality spiral and offer critical benchmarks for predicting coastal forest resilience in the face of accelerating climate change.

coastal forests↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the mechanisms of conifer mortality under seawater exposure

Summary Relative sea level rise (SLR) increasingly impacts coastal ecosystems through the formation of ghost forests. To predict the future of coastal ecosystems under SLR and changing climate, it is important to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying coastal tree mortality and to integrate this knowledge into dynamic vegetation models. We incorporate the physiological effect of salinity and hypoxia in a dynamic vegetation model in the Earth system land model, and used the model to investigate the mechanisms of mortality of conifer forests on the west and east coast sites of USA, where trees experience different form of sea water exposure. Simulations suggest similar physiological mechanisms can result in different mortality patterns. At the east coast site that experienced severe increases in seawater exposure, trees loose photosynthetic capacity and roots rapidly, and both storage carbon and hydraulic conductance decrease significantly within a year. Over time, further consumption of storage carbon that leads to carbon starvation dominates mortality. At the west coast site that gradually exposed to seawater through SLR, hydraulic failure dominates mortality because root loss impacts on conductance are greater than the degree of storage carbon depletion. Measurements and modeling focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms of mortality is critical to reducing predictive uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Can Counteract Carbon Losses From Warming Tundra

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO 2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate—RCP4.5, and high—RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO 2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Yazbeck, Theresia [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus,↗
DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-mercury methylating microbial taxa are integral to understanding links between mercury methylation and elemental cycles in marine and freshwater sediments

The goal of this study was to explore the role of non-mercury (Hg) methylating taxa in mercury methylation and to identify potential links between elemental cycles and Hg methylation. Statistical approaches were utilized to investigate the microbial community and biochemical functions in relation to methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations in marine and freshwater sediments. Sediments were collected from the methylation zone (top 15 cm) in four Hg-contaminated sites. Both abiotic (e.g., sulfate, sulfide, iron, salinity, total organic matter, etc.) and biotic factors (e.g., hgcA, abundances of methylating and non-methylating taxa) were quantified. Random forest and stepwise regression were performed to assess whether non-methylating taxa were significantly associated with MeHg concentration. Co-occurrence and functional network analyses were constructed to explore associations between taxa by examining microbial community structure, composition, and biochemical functions across sites. Regression analysis showed that approximately 80% of the variability in sediment MeHg concentration was predicted by total mercury concentration, the abundances of Hg methylating taxa, and the abundances of the non-Hg methylating taxa. The co-occurrence networks identified Paludibacteraceae and Syntrophorhabdaceae as keystone non Hg methylating taxa in multiple sites, indicating the potential for syntrophic interactions with Hg methylators. Strong associations were also observed between methanogens and sulfate-reducing bacteria, which were likely symbiotic associations. The functional network results suggested that non-Hg methylating taxa play important roles in sulfur respiration, nitrogen respiration, and the carbon metabolism-related functions methylotrophy, methanotrophy, and chemoheterotrophy. Interestingly, keystone functions varied by site and did not involve carbon- and sulfur-related functions only. In conclusion, our findings highlight associations between methylating and non-methylating taxa and sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen cycles in sediment methylation zones, with implications for predicting and understanding the impact of climate and land/sea use changes on Hg methylation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Canopy responses of Swedish primary and secondary forests to the 2018 drought

Boreal forest ecosystems are predicted to experience more frequent summer droughts due to climate change, posing a threat to future forest health and carbon sequestration. Forestry is a regionally dominant land use where the managed secondary forests are typically even-aged forests with low structural and tree species diversity. It is not well known if managed secondary forests and unmanaged primary forests respond to drought differently in part because the location of primary, unmanaged, forests has remained largely unknown. Here we employed a unique map detailing over 300 primary forests in Sweden. We studied impacts of the 2018 nationwide drought by extracting and analyzing a high-resolution remote sensing vegetation index over the primary forests and over buffer zones around the primary forests representing secondary forests. We controlled for topographical variations linked to soil moisture, which was a strong determinant of drought responses, and analyzed Landsat-derived EVI2 anomalies during the drought year from a multiyear non-drought baseline. We found that primary forests were less affected by the drought compared to secondary forests. Our results indicate that forestry may exacerbate the impact of drought in a future climate with more frequent and extreme hydroclimatic events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate warming enhances biodiversity and stability of grassland soil phosphorus-cycling microbial communities

Abstract Climate warming poses significant challenges to global phosphorus sustainability, an essential component of Earth biogeochemistry cycling and water-food-energy nexus. Despite the crucial role of polyphosphate-accumulating organism as key functional microbial agents in phosphorus cycling, the impacts of global climate warming on polyphosphate accumulating organism communities remain largely enigmatic. This study investigates the effects of climate warming on the taxonomic, network, and functional profiles of soil bacterial polyphosphate-accumulating organisms, leveraging fluorescence-activated cell sorting and single-cell Raman spectroscopy. Climate warming enhances both taxonomic and functional biodiversity of polyphosphate-accumulating organisms via biotic interactions and environmental filtering, with observed functionality-biodiversity relationships supporting the functional redundancy theory. Furthermore, polyphosphate-accumulating organism network complexity and stability rise under warming with strengthened positive relationships, supporting stress gradient hypothesis and the belief that complexity begets stability. Finally, polyphosphate-accumulating organisms are significantly correlated to key ecosystem functioning in carbon and phosphorus cycling under warming. Our study suggests that preserving polyphosphate-accumulating organism communities is crucial for maintaining soil ecosystem functioning and sustainable phosphorus management in a warming world and opens avenues for predicting the responses of other functional microbial groups to climate change, beneficially or maliciously.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phosphate Limitation Responses in Marine Green Algae Are Linked to Reprogramming of the tRNA Epitranscriptome and Codon Usage Bias

Marine algae are central to global carbon fixation, and their productivity is dictated largely by resource availability. Reduced nutrient availability is predicted for vast oceanic regions as an outcome of climate change; however, there is much to learn regarding response mechanisms of the tiny picoplankton that thrive in these environments, especially eukaryotic phytoplankton. Here, we investigate responses of the picoeukaryote Micromonas commoda, a green alga found throughout subtropical and tropical oceans. Under shifting phosphate availability scenarios, transcriptomic analyses revealed altered expression of transfer RNA modification enzymes and biased codon usage of transcripts more abundant during phosphate-limiting versus phosphate-replete conditions, consistent with the role of transfer RNA modifications in regulating codon recognition. To associate the observed shift in the expression of the transfer RNA modification enzyme complement with the transfer RNAs encoded by M. commoda, we also determined the transfer RNA repertoire of this alga revealing potential targets of the modification enzymes. Codon usage bias was particularly pronounced in transcripts encoding proteins with direct roles in managing phosphate limitation and photosystem-associated proteins that have ill-characterized putative functions in “light stress.” The observed codon usage bias corresponds to a proposed stress response mechanism in which the interplay between stress-induced changes in transfer RNA modifications and skewed codon usage in certain essential response genes drives preferential translation of the encoded proteins. Collectively, we expose a potential underlying mechanism for achieving growth under enhanced nutrient limitation that extends beyond the catalog of up- or downregulated protein-encoding genes to the cell biological controls that underpin acclimation to changing environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Raw tensiometer soil matric potential data, from Oct 2017-Jun 2020 in Manaus, Brazil

This data package contains raw output from two Campbell Scientific CR1000 data loggers each connected to three UMS T4e tensiometer sensors in Manaus, Brazil. Tensiometers at each data logger location were installed to depths of 10 cm, 20 cm and 50 cm below the ground surface for the purpose of measuring soil matric potential at each depth. “Station 3” tensiometers were installed at approximately 2°36'31.68"S, 60°12'34.70"W. “Station 4” tensiometers were installed at approximately 2°36'32.46"S, 60°12'34.92"W. The files “tensio3.edit.202109.csv” and “tensio4.edit.202109.csv” contain raw data (with invalid data removed). A text editor will be required to view the raw files in .csv (comma-separated values) format. Data processing was limited to: 1) Editing column headers for clarity; 2) Applying a correction that converts voltage read by the data loggers to pressure units (kPa); 3) removing all data greater than 50 kPa and less than -115 kPa; 4) Adding columns entitled “Caution.10cm”, “Caution.20cm” and “Caution.50cm” that contains values of either “NA” or “Caution”, the latter of which is applied when data exceeds the manufacturer reported data validity range of less than -85 kPa to suggest use of these data with caution; 5) Adding columns entitled “Invalid.10cm”, “Invalid.20cm”, and “Invalid.50cm” that contains values of either “NA” or “Invalid”, the latter of which is applied when data accuracy is deemed compromised due to the introduction of air bubbles into the instrument. Data marked “Invalid” may still indicate general trends of wet/high matric potential and dry/low matric potential, but values are inaccurate and dry/low matric potential values are likely not low enough. Wet/high matric potential values are likely to be more accurate than dry/low matric potential values; 6) Data format changed from .dat to .csv. This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Tropics project, which aims to advance model predictions of tropical forest carbon cycle responses to a changing climate over the 21st Century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Herbaceous Plants Exhibit Altered Morphological Traits in Response to Altered Precipitation and Drought Patterns in Semiarid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and severe drought are predicted to increase in semiarid areas due to global climate change. Plant morphological traits can reflect plant responses to a changing environment, such as altered precipitation or drought patterns. In this study, we examined the response of morphological traits of root, stem, leaf and reproduction meristems of annual herbaceous species to altered precipitation and drought patterns in a semiarid sandy grassland. The study involved a control treatment (100% of background precipitation) and the following six altered precipitation treatments: (1) P(+): precipitation increased by 30%, (2) P(++): precipitation increased by 60%, (3) P(-): precipitation decreased by 30%, (4) P(--): precipitation decreased by 60%, (5) drought 1 (D1): 46-day drought from May 1st to June 15th, and (6) drought 2 (D2): 46-day drought from July 1st to August 15th. P(++) significantly increased root length, flower length-to-width ratio, both P(+) and P(++) significantly increased stem length and flower number in the plant growing seasons, while all of them decreased under P(-) and P(--). The annual herbaceous plants marginally increased the number of second-level stem branches and stem diameter in order to better resist the severe drought stress under P(--). P(+) and P(++) increased the root, stem, leaf, and flower dry weight, with the flower dry weight accounting for a larger proportion than the other aboveground parts. Under D2, the plants used the limited water resources more efficiently by increasing the root-to-shoot ratio compared with P(-), P(--) and D1, which reflects biomass allocation to belowground increased. The linear mixed-effects models and redundancy analysis showed that the root-to-shoot ratio and the dry weight of various plant components were significantly affected by morphological traits and altered precipitation magnitude. Our results showed that the herbaceous species have evolved morphological trait responses that allow them to adapt to climate change. Such differences in morphological traits may ultimately affect the growing patterns of annual herbaceous species, enhancing their drought-tolerant capacity in semiarid sandy grassland during the ongoing climate change.

Sun, Shan-Shan↗