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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2017

Fragmentation Increases Impact of Wind Disturbance on Forest Structure and Carbon Stocks in a Western Amazonian Landscape

Tropical second-growth forests could help mitigate climate change, but the degree to which their carbon potential is achieved will depend on exposure to disturbance. Wind disturbance is common in tropical forests, shaping structure, composition, and function, and influencing successional trajectories. However, little is known about the impacts of extreme winds in fragmented landscapes, though second-growth forests are often located in mosaics of forest, pasture, cropland, and other land cover types. Though indirect evidence suggests that fragmentation increases risk of wind damage, few studies have found such impacts following severe storms. In this study, we ask whether fragmentation and forest type (old vs. second growth) were associated with variation in wind damage after a severe convective storm in a fragmented production landscape in western Amazonia. We applied linear spectral unmixing to Landsat 8 imagery from before and after the storm, and combined it with field observations of damage to map wind effects on forest structure and biomass (Figure 4, 5). We also used Landsat 8 imagery to map land cover with the goals of identifying old- and second-growth forest and characterizing fragmentation. We used these data to assess variation in wind disturbance across 95,596 hectares of forest, distributed over 6,110 patches. We find that fragmentation is significantly associated with wind damage, with damage severity higher at forest edges and in edgier, more isolated patches (Figure 7). Damage was more severe in old-growth than in second-growth forests, but this effect was weaker than that of fragmentation (Figure 8). These results illustrate the importance of considering spatial configuration and landscape context in planning tropical forest restoration and predicting carbon sequestration in second-growth forests. Future research should address the mechanisms behind these results, to minimize wind damage risk in second-growth forests so their carbon potential can be maximally achieved.

Schwartz, Naomi B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urbanization is a complex land transformation, not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize it within land surface models and assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and de-coupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15°C, with a warming of 0.24°C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25°C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13°C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

Lahouari Bounoua↗
NASA NTRS2021

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Irrigation↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗
NASA NTRS2023

Sub-Continental-Scale Carbon Stocks of Individual Trees in African Drylands

The distribution of dryland trees and their density, cover, size, mass and carbon content are not well known at sub-continental to continental scales. This information is important for ecological protection, carbon accounting, climate mitigation and restoration efforts of dryland ecosystems. We assessed more than 9.9 billion trees derived from more than 300,000 satellite images, covering semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa north of the Equator. We attributed wood, foliage and root carbon to every tree in the 0–1,000 mm year −1 rainfall zone by coupling field data, machine learning, satellite data and high-performance computing. Average carbon stocks of individual trees ranged from 0.54 Mg C ha −1 and 63 kg C tree −1 in the arid zone to 3.7 Mg C ha −1 and 98 kg tree −1 in the sub-humid zone. Overall, we estimated the total carbon for our study area to be 0.84 (±19.8%) Pg C. Comparisons with 14 previous TRENDY numerical simulation studies23 for our area found that the density and carbon stocks of scattered trees have been underestimated by three models and overestimated by 11 models, respectively. This benchmarking can help understand the carbon cycle and address concerns about land degradation. We make available a linked database of wood mass, foliage mass, root mass and carbon stock of each tree for scientists, policymakers, dryland-restoration practitioners and farmers, who can use it to estimate farmland tree carbon stocks from tablets or laptops.

Compton Tucker↗
NASA NTRS2022

Patterns and Controls on Island-Wide Aboveground Biomass Accumulation in Second-Growth Forests of Puerto Rico

Understanding the heterogeneity of biomass accumulation in second-growth tropical forests following land use abandonment is important for informing ecosystem carbon models and forest restoration efforts. There is an urgent need for a broad sample of second-growth forests to enhance our knowledge of carbon accumulation in human-dominated landscapes, especially for older forests. Puerto Rico has predominantly second-growth forests, ranging in age from approximately 25 to more than 80 years. We used an island-wide sample of airborne lidar from the NASA Goddard Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager collected on March 2017, forest inventory data, and data on forest age, precipitation, soils, and land use to estimate aboveground biomass stocks in moist and wet, second-growth tropical forests. Biomass accumulation rates in Puerto Rico were lower, on average, than in other Neotropical forests. Median biomass across >16,700 ha of older second-growth forests was 105 Mg ha−1, and sampled biomass rarely surpassed 250 Mg ha−1. Differences in biomass by age were large and persistent across different substrates and land uses, with a plateau in the pattern of island-wide biomass accumulation after about 33 years. A spatial regression model showed that multiple factors were related to biomass accumulation, including time since abandonment, geologic substrate, past land use as coffee or pasture, precipitation, topographic wetness index, and slope. Our findings have important consequences for the total carbon storage and expected climate mitigation benefits of large-scale reforestation efforts, and highlight the value of airborne lidar for quantifying biomass variability in complex tropical landscapes.

Sebastián Martinuzzi↗
NASA NTRS2023

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biomass to Biochar: Maximizing the Carbon Value - Executive Summary

Converting biomass to biochar presents exciting opportunities to mitigate climate change, improve forest and soil health, decrease wildfire risk, bolster ecosystem services, and revitalize rural economies. Our expert panel examined how biomass is harvested, converted to biochar and applied and where operational changes and funding could significantly magnify biochar's contributions. To advance knowledge and efficacies, we found that a rigorous combination of coordinated long-term research, market research and development and enhancement of business support infrastructure that leads to collaborative policy development is essential. We also identified how barriers to five specific biochar technology sectors could be overcome and provide guidelines for effective funding.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Current and Future Risks to Energy Security

As global communities transition to clean energy technologies, the threat landscape for energy security is more complex than ever before. While broad adoption of clean energy technologies has progressed across the world, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been researching how to reduce risks and the value renewable energy technologies bring to improved energy security, today and decades into the future. Continuing adoption of technologies to meet clean energy and climate mitigation goals requires consideration of energy security, making NREL's risk reduction and mitigation research increasingly important.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fusion Energy Research at Idaho National Laboratory: Experimentation and Simulation to Support Safety and Rapid Technology Development

Research into fusion energy is growing rapidly, responding to a call for sustainable sources of energy to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. Within the United States, at least, researchers are also responding to the “Bold Decadal Vision” proposed by the White House, seeking to have a commercially relevant fusion pilot plant deployed within a decade. Before this can become a reality, many Fusion Science & Technology (FS&T) gaps remain. For over 45 years, Idaho National Laboratory has been at the forefront of addressing these FS&T gaps in the context of fusion safety and technology via the operation of world-leading experimental facilities within the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility. Here, INL focuses on the tritium fuel cycle, conceptual system design studies, risk assessment, waste management, and materials safety. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) has also been a component of this portfolio of research, but, early on, focused on individual systems. Since 2019, active development and research on integrated whole device modeling tools based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been undertaken. This has culminated in a MOOSE-based version of the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), an INL code historically focused on tritium permeation and trapping within fusion systems. More recently, INL Laboratory Directed Research and Development funds have been used to create the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) code focused on scrape-off layer plasma physics and the first wall of a magnetically confined fusion device. This talk will focus on an overview of INL activities in the FS&T research area, with a particular focus on recent M&S activities and results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Studies on Enhanced Ignition for Improved Pre-Chamber Combustion in Gas Engines

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change have intensified the demand for cleaner and more efficient combustion technologies. Heavyduty engines, which remain essential for transportation and power generation, must operate with significantly lower emissions while maintaining high efficiency and fuel flexibility. Lean combustion and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) offer promising pathways to reduce emissions and improve thermal efficiency; however, these strategies impose severe challenges for engine operation, especially for low reactivity gaseous fuels like natural gas and ammonia. Pre-chamber combustion has emerged as a viable approach that uses turbulent jets to accelerate main chamber ignition, but its performance can degrade under high dilution or with hard-to-ignite fuels. These limitations motivate the central focus of this dissertation: understanding passive pre-chambers and improving their performance under challenging conditions.

Dhotre, Akash [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗