Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “cost projections”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Applied Operations Research: Operator's Assistant

NASA operates high value critical equipment (HVCE) that requires trouble shooting, periodic maintenance and continued monitoring by Operations staff. The complexity HVCE and information required to maintain and trouble shoot HVCE to assure continued mission success as paper is voluminous. Training on new HVCE is commensurate with the need for equipment maintenance. LaRC Research Directorate has undertaken a proactive research to support Operations staff by initiation of the development and prototyping an electronic computer based portable maintenance aid (Operator's Assistant). This research established a goal with multiple objectives and a working prototype was developed. The research identified affordable solutions; constraints; demonstrated use of commercial off the shelf software; use of the US Coast Guard maintenance solution; NASA Procedure Representation Language; and the identification of computer system strategies; where these demonstrations and capabilities support the Operator, and maintenance. The results revealed validation against measures of effectiveness and overall proved a substantial training and capability sustainment tool. The research indicated that the OA could be deployed operationally at the LaRC Compressor Station with an expectation of satisfactorily results and to obtain additional lessons learned prior to deployment at other LaRC Research Directorate Facilities. The research revealed projected cost and time savings.

Cole, Stuart K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Mars Pathfinder Mission

Mars Pathfinder, one of the Discovery class missions (quick. low-cost projects with focused science objectives), will land a single spacecraft with a microrover and several instruments on the surface of Mars in 1997. Pathfinder will be the first mission to use a rover, carrying a chemical analysis instrument, to characterize the rocks and soils in a landing area over hundreds of square meters on Mars, which will provide a calibration point or ground truth for orbital remote sensing observations.

Discovery↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contributions of Solar + Storage to Future Power Needs

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid. Additionally, as battery costs decline, there is increasing interest in understanding the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential co-benefits of coupling battery storage and photovoltaics. This paper presents recent methodological developments to more accurately represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems in capacity expansion models. These are demonstrated using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch through 2045. We simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system in the Western Interconnection both with and without a coupled PV and battery technology option under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and mid PV and battery cost projections. We analyze the degree to which a variety of configurations of coupled PV + Battery systems are able to meet future electricity needs, under which system conditions this coupled technology becomes beneficial to the electric grid and identify the displaced technologies when coupled solar and storage is introduced into the model. We find that capturing the benefits of co-locating these systems becomes increasingly important as the penetration of solar PV rises, and that in particular it is important to accurately capture the ability of these technologies to shift energy, provide firm capacity, and reduce expected curtailment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1979

Slicing of Silicon into Sheet Material: Silicon Sheet Growth Development for the Large Area Silicon Sheet Task of the Low Cost Silicon Solar Array Project

Testing of low cost low suspension power slurry vehicles is presented. Cutting oils are unlikely to work, but a mineral oil with additives should be workable. Two different abrasives were tested. A cheaper silicon carbide from Norton gave excellent results except for excessive kerf loss: the particles were too big. An abrasive treated for lubricity showed no lubricity improvement in mineral oil vehicle. The bounce fixture was tested for the first time under constant cut rate conditions (rather than constant force). Although the cut was not completed before the blades broke, the blade lifetime of thin (100 micrometer) blades was 120 times the lifetime without the fixture. The large prototype saw completed a successful run, producing 90% cutting yield (849 wafers) at 20 wafers/cm. Although inexperience with large numbers of wafers caused cleaning breakage to reduce this yield to 74%, the yield was high enough that the concept of the large saw is proven workable.

Fleming, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Automated Array Assembly, Phase 2. Low-cost Solar Array Project, Task 4

Work was done to verify the technological readiness of a select process sequence with respect to satisfying the Low Cost Solar Array Project objectives of meeting the designated goals of $.50 per peak watt in 1986 (1975 dollars). The sequence examined consisted of: (1) 3 inches diameter as-sawn Czochralski grown 1:0:0 silicon, (2) texture etching, (3) ion implanting, (4) laser annealing, (5) screen printing of ohmic contacts and (6) sprayed anti-reflective coatings. High volume production projections were made on the selected process sequence. Automated processing and movement of hardware at high rates were conceptualized to satisfy the PROJECT's 500 MW/yr capability. A production plan was formulated with flow diagrams integrating the various processes in the cell fabrication sequence.

Lopez, M.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evaluation of ERDA-sponsored coal feed system development

Coal feeders were evaluated based upon criteria such as technical feasibility, performance (i.e. ability to meet process requirements), projected life cycle costs, and projected development cost. An initial set of feeders was selected based on the feeders' cost savings potential compared with baseline lockhopper systems. Additional feeders were considered for selection based on: (1) increasing the probability of successful feeder development; (2) application to specific processes; and (3) technical merit. A coal feeder development program is outlined.

Phen, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Silicon Ingot Casting - Heat Exchanger Method (HEM). Multi-Wire Slicing - Fixed Abrasive Slicing Technique (Fast). Phase 4 Silicon Sheet Growth Development for the Large Area Sheet Task of the Low-Cost Solar Array Project

The crystallinity of large HEM silicon ingots as a function of heat flow conditions is investigated. A balanced heat flow at the bottom of the ingot restricts spurious nucleation to the edge of the melted-back seed in contact with the crucible. Homogeneous resistivity distribution over all the ingot has been achieved. The positioning of diamonds electroplated on wirepacks used to slice silicon crystals is considered. The electroplating of diamonds on only the cutting edge is described and the improved slicing performance of these wires evaluated. An economic analysis of value added costs of HEM ingot casting and band saw sectioning indicates the projected add on cost of HEM is well below the 1986 allocation.

Schmid, F.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Low-cost solar array project progress and plans

The considered project is part of the DOE Photovoltaic Technology and Market Development Program. This program is concerned with the development and the utilization of cost-competitive photovoltaic systems. The project has the objective to develop, by 1986, the national capability to manufacture low-cost, long-life photovoltaic arrays at production rates that will realize economies of scale, and at a price of less than $0.70/watt. The array performance objectives include an efficiency greater than 10% and an operating lifetime longer than 20 years. The objective of the silicon material task is to establish the practicality of processes for producing silicon suitable for terrestrial photovoltaic applications at a price of $14/kg. The large-area sheet task is concerned with the development of process technology for sheet formation. Low-cost encapsulation material systems are being developed in connection with the encapsulation task. Another project goal is related to the development of economical process sequences.

Callaghan, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Low-cost solar array project

Technology development and technical feasibility are reviewed. Process and materials candidates to meet project goals were investigated. Integration of technical development with cost estimates is discussed.

Callaghan, W. T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analysis and evaluation in the production process and equipment area of the low-cost solar array project

The effect of solar cell metallization pattern design on solar cell performance and the costs and performance effects of different metallization processes are discussed. Definitive design rules for the front metallization pattern for large area solar cells are presented. Chemical and physical deposition processes for metallization are described and compared. An economic evaluation of the 6 principal metallization options is presented. Instructions for preparing Format A cost data for solar cell manufacturing processes from UPPC forms for input into the SAMIC computer program are presented.

Wolf, M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Silicon-on-ceramic process: Silicon sheet growth and device development for the large-area silicon sheet task of the low-cost solar array project

The technical feasibility of producing solar cell quality sheet silicon to meet the DOE 1986 cost goal of 70 cents/watt was investigated. The silicon on ceramic approach is to coat a low cost ceramic substrate with large grain polycrystalline silicon by unidirectional solidification of molten silicon. Results and accomplishments are summarized.

Whitehead, A. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Performance Projections for Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

This report provides quantitative estimates of future cost and performance improvements for fossil-fueled power plants equipped with carbon capture developed through the adaption/modification of relevant Aspen Plus ® case study models from published NETL techno-economic analyses. The cost and performance estimates in this report are meant to represent prospective improvements that may be realized for low-carbon-emitting PC and NGCC power plants through robust commercial deployment (e.g., learning by doing) of high TRL technologies as well as additional investments in targeted RD&D activities. The methodology used to develop the estimates in this report is intended to allow direct comparison of the technology improvements with the SOA baseline published in NETL’s Fossil Energy Baseline (Rev 4a) Report.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Low-cost Solar Array (LSA) project

The activities of the Low-Cost Solar Array Project are described for the period April through June 1978. The Project is assigned responsibility for advancing solar array technology while encouraging industry to reduce the price of arrays to a level at which photovoltaic electric power systems will be competitive with more conventional power sources early in the next decade. Set forth are the goals and plans with which the Project intends to accomplish this and the progress that was made during the quarter.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost Analysis and Projections for U.S.-Manufactured Automotive Lithium-ion Batteries

This document reports on a study conducted to estimate the cost of U.S-produced automotive battery packs for model years (MY) 2023 to 2035, using Argonne National Laboratory’s BatPaC tool. The costs were estimated by designing batteries for several classes of vehicles for four discrete model years (2023, 2026, 2030, and 2035), where a representative battery technology and material prices are selected based on information available today. Correlations were developed from the four discrete years to enable annual pack cost estimates as a function of pack size (kWh) and model year. A consolidated cost curve was then developed that includes battery size, technology by model year, and the anticipated sales volumes of each class of vehicles over the years. This cost curve estimates the volume-averaged, U.S.-manufactured battery pack cost of PHEVs and BEVs in the United States to be $\$140$/kWh for the model year 2023, which will reduce to $\$86$/kWh in MY2035. Applying tax credits from section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act can further reduce the average pack cost to as low as $\$56$/kWh in MY2029. The report also includes several sensitivity studies that investigate the effect of pack production volume, material prices, fast charge requirements, and labor rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis and Evaluation of Processes and Equipment in Tasks 2 and 4 of the Low-cost Solar Array Project

The significant economic data for the current production multiblade wafering and inner diameter slicing processes were tabulated and compared to data on the experimental and projected multiblade slurry, STC ID diamond coated blade, multiwire slurry and crystal systems fixed abrasive multiwire slicing methods. Cost calculations were performed for current production processes and for 1982 and 1986 projected wafering techniques.

Goldman, H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗