Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “covariance analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

The Cognition Battery: Developing a Normative Database for Spaceflight and Examining the Impact of Prolonged Isolation and Confinement on Cognitive Performance

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts on future long duration space exploration will be required to execute complex tasks in which even minor errors could have devastating consequences. Intact cognition is critical to maintain exceptional performance standards and it is possible that variability even at the highest ends of the performance spectrum will impact operational tasks. Exposure to spaceflight hazards could compromise cognitive performance, and decrements have been documented under conditions of altered gravity and radiation exposure. The cognitive impacts of prolonged isolation and confinement remain relatively unknown. Traditional neuropsychological assessments cannot support earth independent monitoring, do not have normative comparisons for high functioning individuals, and most are not sensitive enough to detect small performance decrements. The Cognition Battery was developed to address these limitations but currently lacks comprehensive normative data. In this project, we aimed to 1) develop a preliminary normative database for astronauts and astronaut surrogates using the Cognition Battery, and 2) characterize differences in cognitive performance after short and long duration analog missions. PARTICIPANTS & METHODS: We assessed baseline cognitive performance by administering the Cognition Battery to 97 astronaut and astronaut surrogates recruited to approximate astronaut demographics (mean age: 39.38, SD=7.62; 35.1% female; 91.7% advanced degrees). For aim 1, we calculated speed and accuracy outcomes for each subtest and summarized the data with descriptive statistics. We examined the relationship between age and performance with Pearsons’s correlations and the relationship between gender and performance with independent samples t-tests. A subset of individuals on short duration (n=48; mean age: 38.18, SD=7.14; 37.5% female; 91.7% advanced degrees) missions of 45 days and long duration (n=34; mean age: 42.12, SD=8.39; 38.2% female; 94.1% advanced degrees) missions ranging from 4-8 months were administered the Cognition Battery during and after their respective missions. For aim 2, we accounted for practice effects using published corrections, and z-transformed post-mission scores using the full sample’s baseline scores. One-way analysis of covariance tests determined the main effect of analog duration on post-mission performance, after accounting for age and gender. The False Discovery Rate method was applied to adjust for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: In the full normative sample, older age was associated with slower reaction times on a processing speed task (r=.39, p=.02), and men were more accurate on processing speed (t=-2.19, p=.03) and faster on sustained attention (t=2.02, p=.049) and risk-taking tasks (t=2.49, p=.02). We observed a main effect of duration on performance on tasks of visual memory (f(1)=5.62, p=.04), processing speed (f(1)=5.48, p=.03), and sensorimotor functioning (f(1)=39.52, p < .001), such that slower performance was observed after long duration missions relative to short. Only sensorimotor functioning was significant after adjustments for multiple comparisons (adjusted p<.001). DISCUSSION: The full sample represents the largest dataset of cognitive performance assessed by the Cognition Battery available and can be used for further research in spaceflight and high-performance populations. Relationships between performance and key demographic variables suggest future research that include age and gender stratification is needed. Our results also show minimal changes in cognitive performance between longer and shorter periods of isolation and confinement.

S I Dev↗

Performance Impacts to the NASA Artemis II Trajectory Correction Burn Placement

As NASA embarks to return humans to the lunar vicinity with the upcoming Artemis II mission, the selected free return trajectory taking the crew to the Moon in the Orion spacecraft is impacted by the execution of small trajectory correction burns to ensure the spacecraft stays on course for a successful return to Earth. The placement of these nominally zero translational maneuvers must account for the crew schedule, navigation tracking constraints, spacecraft venting, thermal and communication requirements, and a host of other programmatic factors. Understanding the influence the placement of these periodic burn corrections have on the integrated GN\&C performance can provide valuable insight to mission controllers and trajectory planning processes to untangle the complex trade space considered for both baseline and contingency scenarios. This sensitivity information can also be utilized to facilitate the optimized placement of these burns. This paper utilizes several techniques to systematically generate the performance impacts to the NASA Artemis II trajectory correction burn placement and demonstrate how to derive optimized locations that make the system robust to crew activity, maneuver execution errors, navigation uncertainty, orbit insertion errors, disturbance accelerations, and other system limitations.

GN&C↗

Robust Trajectory Optimization for NRHO Rendezvous Using SPICE Kernel Relative Motion

In this paper, robust optimization is performed on trajectory correction maneuvers during the lunar lander return phase of an Artemis mission, treating the trajectory from one hour after low lunar orbit departure to arrival in the vicinity of the lunar Gateway as a relative motion problem. To enable rapid stochastic optimization techniques requiring many candidate trajectories, SPICE kernel relative motion as implemented by the Quadratic Interpolated State Transition (QIST) system is used as the underlying dynamics propagation. The optimization is performed with a genetic optimizer using linear covariance (LinCov) software in a simplified operational context, taking into account the availability of navigation sensors with varying measurement models, ranges, and accuracies. No numerical integration is used, since the relative motion around Gateway is fully characterized with the a priori computation of the QIST coefficients. Maneuver placements are computed to optimize the minimum 3σ delta-v of the trajectory, the position dispersion at a target point, and a convex combination of these two metrics. An order of magnitude runtime improvement is provided over legacy methods with less than 10% error introduced. All QIST results are shown to be in-family with legacy methods. The tradespace for optimal delta-v design is found to range from 77.0 to 93.9 m/s, while the range of optimal dispersion is between 1.4 and 11.7 km.

Relative Motion↗

Linear Covariance Techniques to Analyze a Multi-Vehicle, Multi-GN&C System with Applications to Rendezvous in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

Typically for a rendezvous and docking scenario, only a single vehicle is considered the active vehicle. As a result, the target vehicle’s GN&C system is typically not a factor in the integrated performance analysis as it assumes a passive role. However, for upcoming NASA Artemis missions the active vehicle is both the chaser and target spacecraft. In addition, both vehicles are cooperating with one another, sharing telemetry data, and relying on data extracted from the GN&C system of the other. The process also includes a team of ground support personnel in mission control are tracking and monitoring each spacecraft uplinking state estimates and targeting solutions to support mission operations and enhance the onboard flight system performance. Being able to quickly analyze the impact of both vehicles with two different GN&C systems that also interact with the ground that does its own navigation and targeting uploads is critical. This paper outlines how to perform this rapid analysis using linear covariance techniques and applies them to a rendezvous scenario initiated in low lunar orbit and completed in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) representative of the NASA Artemis III mission.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Gravity field determination and error assessment techniques

Linear estimation theory, along with a new technique to compute relative data weights, was applied to the determination of the Earth's geopotential field and other geophysical model parameters using a combination of satellite ground-based tracking data, satellite altimetry data, and the surface gravimetry data. The relative data weights for the inhomogeneous data sets are estimated simultaneously with the gravity field and other geophysical and orbit parameters in a least squares approach to produce the University of Texas gravity field models. New techniques to perform calibration of the formal covariance matrix for the geopotential solution were developed to obtain a reliable gravity field error estimate. Different techniques, which include orbit residual analysis, surface gravity anomaly residual analysis, subset gravity solution comparisons and consider covariance analysis, were applied to investigate the reliability of the calibration.

Yuan, D. N.↗

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intranasal Scopolamine

Introduction: An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS).The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) was evaluated using data collected in Phase II IND protocols. We reported earlier statistically significant gender differences in PK parameters of INSCOP at a dose level of 0.4 mg. To identify covariates that influence PK parameters of INSCOP, we examined population covariates of INSCOP PK model for 0.4 mg dose. Methods: Plasma scopolamine concentrations versus time data were collected from 20 normal healthy human subjects (11 male/9 female) after a 0.4 mg dose. Phoenix NLME was employed for PK analysis of these data using gender, body weight and age as covariates for model selection. Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (-2LL). Statistical significance for base model building and individual covariate analysis was set at P less than 0.05{delta(-2LL)=3.84}. Results: A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination best described INSCOP concentration ]time profiles. Inclusion of gender, body weight and age as covariates individually significantly reduced -2LL by the cut-off value of 3.84(P less than 0.05) when tested against the base model. After the forward stepwise selection and backward elimination steps, gender was selected to add to the final model which had significant influence on absorption rate constant (ka) and the volume of distribution (V) of INSCOP. Conclusion: A population pharmacokinetic model for INSCOP has been identified and gender was a significant contributing covariate for the final model. The volume of distribution and Ka were significantly higher in males than in females which confirm gender-dependent pharmacokinetics of scopolamine after administration of a 0.4 mg dose.

Wu, L.↗

Analysis of Compressible Mixing Layers Using Dilatational Covariances Model

Compressible mixing layers are analyzed using a dilatational covariances model based on a pseudo-sound constitutive relation. The calculations are used to evaluate the different physical phenomena affecting compressible mixing layers. The rate of growth of the mixing layer is retarded by both the compressible dissipation and the pressure-dilatational covariances. The pressure-dilatational, essentially a nonequilibrium effect, reduces the amount of excess production over dissipation available for the turbulence energy growth. The pseudo-sound model also includes a history dependent portion: this is also investigated. All constants in the model and used in these computations are predicted by the theory.

Thangam, S.↗

Development of automatic and manual flight director landing systems for the XV-15 tilt rotor aircraft in helicopter mode

The objective of this effort is to determine IFR approach path and touchdown dispersions for manual and automatic XV-15 tilt rotor landings, and to develop missed approach criteria. Only helicopter mode XV-15 operation is considered. The analysis and design sections develop the automatic and flight director guidance equations for decelerating curved and straight-in approaches into a typical VTOL landing site equipped with an MLS navigation aid. These system designs satisfy all known pilot-centered, guidance and control requirements for this flying task. Performance data, obtained from nonstationary covariance propagation dispersion analysis for the system, are used to develop the approach monitoring criteria. The autoland and flight director guidance equations are programmed for the VSTOLAND 1819B digital computer. The system design dispersion data developed through analysis and the 1819B digital computer program are verified and refined using the fixed-base, man-in-the-loop XV-15 VSTOLAND simulation.

Hofmann, L. G.↗

An autonomous Nimbus Doppler positioning system

A single-pass Doppler positioning system was developed at the GSFC in support of the Nimbus-6 mission. The system was designed to satisfy the following requirements: compatibility with the PDP 11/70 minicomputer; single-pass recovery of up to 250 positions with a two-sigma accuracy of 5 km; high reliability with a minimum of human interaction; and near real-time responsiveness. The system consists of a numerical integrator which includes only the J2 term (earth flattening) of the earth's gravity field, an editing routine, a first guess algorithm, a least squares position recovery program, and a routine for generating a 95% confidence circle based on a computer covariance matrix. An analysis and quantification of the following error sources that limit system accuracy are presented: orbit error, radial aliasing, computational difficulties with overhead passes, oscillator drift, and ambiguity problems. Results of system reliability tests and sample outputs are included.

Garza-Robles, R.↗

Kalman filtering for spacecraft attitude estimation

Several schemes in current use for sequential estimation of spacecraft attitude using Kalman filters are examined. These differ according to their treatment of the attitude error, namely: using the complete four-component quaternion; using a truncated quaternion in which one of the components has been eliminated; or using a quaternion referred to approximate body-fixed axes. These schemes are examined for the case of a spacecraft carrying line-of-sight attitude sensors and three-axis gyros whose measurements are corrupted by noise on both the drift rate and the drift-rate ramp. The analysis of the covariance is carried out in detail. The historical development of Kalman filtering of attitude is reviewed.

Lefferts, E. J.↗

Preliminary Comparisons of the Information Content and Utility of TM Versus MSS Data

Comparisons were made between subscenes from the first TM scene acquired of the Washington, D.C. area and a MSS scene acquired approximately one year earlier. Three types of analyses were conducted to compare TM and MSS data: a water body analysis, a principal components analysis and a spectral clustering analysis. The water body analysis compared the capability of the TM to the MSS for detecting small uniform targets. Of the 59 ponds located on aerial photographs 34 (58%) were detected by the TM with six commission errors (15%) and 13 (22%) were detected by the MSS with three commission errors (19%). The smallest water body detected by the TM was 16 meters; the smallest detected by the MSS was 40 meters. For the principal components analysis, means and covariance matrices were calculated for each subscene, and principal components images generated and characterized. In the spectral clustering comparison each scene was independently clustered and the clusters were assigned to informational classes. The preliminary comparison indicated that TM data provides enhancements over MSS in terms of (1) small target detection and (2) data dimensionality (even with 4-band data). The extra dimension, partially resultant from TM band 1, appears useful for built-up/non-built-up area separation.

Markham, B. L.↗

Flight dynamics facility operational orbit determination support for the ocean topography experiment

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/POSEIDON) mission is designed to determine the topography of the Earth's sea surface across a 3 yr period, beginning with launch in June 1992. The Goddard Space Flight Center Dynamics Facility has the capability to operationally receive and process Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) tracking data. Because these data will be used to support orbit determination (OD) aspects of the TOPEX mission, the Dynamics Facility was designated to perform TOPEX operational OD. The scientific data require stringent OD accuracy in navigating the TOPEX spacecraft. The OD accuracy requirements fall into two categories: (1) on orbit free flight; and (2) maneuver. The maneuver OD accuracy requirements are of two types; premaneuver planning and postmaneuver evaluation. Analysis using the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) covariance software has shown that, during the first postlaunch mission phase of the TOPEX mission, some postmaneuver evaluation OD accuracy requirements cannot be met. ODEAS results also show that the most difficult requirements to meet are those that determine the change in the components of velocity for postmaneuver evaluation.

Bolvin, D. T.↗

Precise navigation for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft using the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS)

As the baseline navigation system for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) is required to provide precise position and velocity information for imaging instrument calibration and routine operations. This paper presents the results of real-time navigation performance evaluations with respect to TONS-based orbit and frequency determination to satisfy this requirement. Both covariance and simulation analysis of EOS-AM1 navigation accuracy and analysis using operational data from Landsat-4 are presented. Local (half orbit) and global (multiple orbits) tracking are considered using a way-forward link services. Improvements in navigation accuracies by using enhanced gravity models beyond the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T3 are also discussed. Key objectives of the analysis are to evaluate nominal performance and potential sensitivities and to address algorithm improvements such as TDRS ephemeris biasing, ionosphere model, and gravity process noise models slated for implementation. Results indicate that TONS can be configured to meet the proposed instrument navigation requirements of 20 meters, 3-sigma.

Folta, David C.↗

Broken Ergodicity in Two-Dimensional Homogeneous Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Two-dimensional (2-D) homogeneous magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has many of the same qualitative features as three-dimensional (3-D) homogeneous MHD turbulence.The se features include several ideal invariants, along with the phenomenon of broken ergodicity. Broken ergodicity appears when certain modes act like random variables with mean values that are large compared to their standard deviations, indicating a coherent structure or dynamo.Recently, the origin of broken ergodicity in 3-D MHD turbulence that is manifest in the lowest wavenumbers was explained. Here, a detailed description of the origins of broken ergodicity in 2-D MHD turbulence is presented. It will be seen that broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D MHD turbulence can be manifest in the lowest wavenumbers of a finite numerical model for certain initial conditions or in the highest wavenumbers for another set of initial conditions.T he origins of broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D homogeneous MHD turbulence are found through an eigen analysis of the covariance matrices of the modal probability density functions.It will also be shown that when the lowest wavenumber magnetic field becomes quasi-stationary, the higher wavenumber modes can propagate as Alfven waves on these almost static large-scale magnetic structures

Shebalin, John V.↗

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

The Relationship Between Two Methods for Estimating Uncertainties in Data Assimilation

This note examines the relationship between two apparently unrelated methods for estimating error statistics or uncertainties of relevance to data assimilation. The first method is due to (Desroziers et al., 2005, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3385–3396; referred to as DBCP hereafter) and relies on residual statistics readily available from data assimilation applications. The second method, the three- cornered hat (3CH) developed by Gray and Allan (1974, IEEE 28th Annual Symp. Freq. Control, 243–246), only recently applied to atmospheric sciences, uses three data sets and can derive estimates of relevant error uncertainties as well. The usefulness of both methods lies in them not requiring knowledge of the true value of the quantities at play. DBCP derives its results by relying explicitly on the constraints as- sociated with the data assimilation minimization problem; 3CH is general and its estimates hold as long as errors in the three data sets of choice are uncorrelated. Establishing the relationship between the methods requires applying the 3CH approach to the same observation, background, and analysis data sets used by DBCP. In this case, the same assumptions of DBCP on residual errors allow for cancellation of error cross–covariance terms in 3CH such that two of its corners derive identical estimates for observation and background error covariances as those of DBCP. The error cross–covariance terms associated with the third corner are shown to add up to twice the analysis error covariance so that the 3CH estimate for the third corner recovers the negative of the analysis error covariance. Illustrations of these findings are provided by deriving uncertainties for radio occultation bending angles.

Ricardo Todling↗