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Measurement of $\nu_\mu$ CC Interactions With Two-Proton Final State in MINERvA

This dissertation presents a measurement of charged–current (CC) muon–neutrino interactions with exactly two protons and no pions in the final state (CC~$2p\,0\pi$), using data collected by the MINERvA detector in the NuMI medium–energy beam at Fermilab. Such two–proton topologies are a sensitive probe of nuclear dynamics in the few–GeV regime, including multi–nucleon correlations (npnh, notably $2p2h$) and intranuclear final–state interactions (FSI) such as pion absorption and nucleon rescattering. A precise experimental characterization of these processes is essential both for neutrino–interaction theory and for reducing systematic uncertainties in oscillation experiments that rely on accurate modeling of neutrino–nucleus interactions. Events are selected by requiring a $\nu_\mu$ CC interaction with a reconstructed $\mu^-$ and two proton tracks originating from a common vertex in MINERvA’s finely segmented scintillator tracker, with no reconstructed mesons. Muon charge and momentum are constrained by matching to the MINOS Near Detector, while proton identification exploits energy–loss profiles and stopping–proton features. Backgrounds from pion–producing channels that enter the signal region through FSI or reconstruction effects are constrained with data–driven sidebands (Michel–electron and isolated–cluster “blob” samples) and tuned via a simultaneous fit across signal and sideband regions. To correct detector resolution and acceptance effects, the analysis employs iterative Bayesian unfolding with extensive validation: statistical pseudo–experiments, and robustness checks against generator systematic “universes” and additional strong shape warps. Single–differential cross sections are reported for three observables tailored to the two–proton final state: the opening–angle cosine $\cos\!\left(\theta_{pp}\right)$, the leading–proton momentum, and the subleading–proton momentum. Systematic uncertainties include contributions from neutrino flux, interaction modeling (e.g., npnh and resonance parameters, pion FSI), and detector response (calibration, reconstruction efficiencies). The resulting distributions provide targeted constraints on the interplay of multi–nucleon dynamics and FSI that shape CC~$2p\,0\pi$ final states on hydrocarbon. Comparisons to modern GENIE–based simulations highlight kinematic regions where model components require refinement. These measurements thus inform generator tuning and improve the reliability of neutrino–energy reconstruction strategies for current and future long–baseline oscillation programs.

Syrotenko, Vladyslav S. [Tufts U.]↗

Dataset_for_Molecular_Motion_Below_the_Glass_Transition_A_Solid-State_NMR_Study_of_Siloxane_Polymer_Dynamics Study

This dataset contains solid-state 1H and 13C NMR relaxometry data, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) data, and size exclusion chromatography (SEC/GPC) data supporting the study of sub-glass-transition (sub-Tg) molecular dynamics in a composition- and sequence-controlled series of diphenyl-substituted polysiloxanes (PDMS, 14Ph, 33Ph, 50Ph, 67Ph, and 100Ph; 0–100% diphenylsiloxane content by mole).All solid-state NMR data were acquired on a 200 MHz Bruker Avance III HD spectrometer using a static 7 mm HX probe or a 4 mm HX probe under 4 kHz magic-angle spinning. Raw Bruker TopSpin experiment folders are included for: (1) variable-temperature 1H lineshape measurements used to determine linewidth (FWHM) as a function of temperature across the glass transition; (2) 1H T1 (saturation recovery with solid-echo detection), probing nanosecond-scale dynamics near the 1H Larmor frequency; (3) 1H T1rho (direct spin-lock, 62.5 kHz), probing microsecond-scale segmental dynamics; (4) 13C-detected Lee–Goldburg cross-polarization 1H T1rho (LGCPH T1rho) for 33Ph and 50Ph, resolving aromatic and aliphatic proton environments; and (5) 13C T1 relaxation for 33Ph and 50Ph. Differential scanning calorimetry data (TA Instruments DSC 25, −150 to +120 °C, up to +300 °C for 100Ph, 10 °C/min) are included for all six compositions and support the glass-transition temperatures in Table 1 and Figure 1. Size exclusion chromatography data (Agilent 1200 Series, PL-Gel 300 mixed-C column, THF mobile phase, polystyrene calibration standards) are included for the three synthesized copolymers (33Ph, 50Ph, 67Ph) and support the number-average molecular weights in Table 1. Processed data include per-composition relaxation-time summaries (Excel), curve-fitting and Bloembergen-Purcell-Pound (BPP) model analysis notebooks (Jupyter/Python), and Igor Pro (.pxp) master files used to generate the manuscript's figures.

Bloembergen-Purcell-Pound theory↗

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Low-Energy Physics in Neutrino LArTPCs

In this white paper, we outline some of the scientific opportunities and challenges related to detection and reconstruction of low-energy (less than 100 MeV) signatures in liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors. Key takeaways are summarized as follows. 1) LArTPCs have unique sensitivity to a range of physics and astrophysics signatures via detection of event features at and below the few tens of MeV range. 2) Low-energy signatures are an integral part of GeV-scale accelerator neutrino interaction final states, and their reconstruction can enhance the oscillation physics sensitivities of LArTPC experiments. 3) BSM signals from accelerator and natural sources also generate diverse signatures in the low-energy range, and reconstruction of these signatures can increase the breadth of BSM scenarios accessible in LArTPC-based searches. 4) Neutrino interaction cross sections and other nuclear physics processes in argon relevant to sub-hundred-MeV LArTPC signatures are poorly understood. Improved theory and experimental measurements are needed. Pion decay-at-rest sources and charged particle and neutron test beams are ideal facilities for experimentally improving this understanding. 5) There are specific calibration needs in the low-energy range, as well as specific needs for control and understanding of radiological and cosmogenic backgrounds. 6) Novel ideas for future LArTPC technology that enhance low-energy capabilities should be explored. These include novel charge enhancement and readout systems, enhanced photon detection, low radioactivity argon, and xenon doping. 7) Low-energy signatures, whether steady-state or part of a supernova burst or larger GeV-scale event topology, have specific triggering, DAQ and reconstruction requirements that must be addressed outside the scope of conventional GeV-scale data collection and analysis pathways.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Photo-z outlier self-calibration in weak lensing surveys

Calibrating photometric redshift errors in weak lensing surveys with external data is extremely challenging. In this work, we show that both Gaussian and outlier photo-z parameters can be self-calibrated from the data alone. This comes at no cost for the neutrino masses, curvature and dark energy equation of state w0, but with a 65% degradation when both w0 and wa are varied. We perform a realistic forecast for the Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) 3× 2 analysis, combining cosmic shear, projected galaxy clustering and galaxy - galaxy lensing. We confirm the importance of marginalizing over photo-z outliers. We examine a subset of internal cross-correlations, dubbed "null correlations", which are usually ignored in 3× 2 analyses. Despite contributing only ~ 10% of the total signal-to-noise, these null correlations improve the constraints on photo-z parameters by up to an order of magnitude. Using the same galaxy sample as sources and lenses dramatically improves the photo-z uncertainties too. Together, these methods add robustness to any claim of detected new Physics, and reduce the statistical errors on cosmology by 15% and 10% respectively. Finally, including CMB lensing from an experiment like Simons Observatory or CMB-S4 improves the cosmological and photo-z posterior constraints by about 10%, and further improves the robustness to systematics. To give intuition on the Fisher forecasts, we examine in detail several toy models that explain the origin of the photo-z self-calibration. Our Fisher code LaSSI (Large-Scale Structure Information), which includes the effect of Gaussian and outlier photo-z, shear multiplicative bias, linear galaxy bias, and extensions to LCDM, is publicly available at \href{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}{https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/LaSSI}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simple, compact, high-resolution monochromatic x-ray source for characterization of x-ray calorimeter arrays

X-ray calorimeters routinely achieve very high spectral resolution, typically a few eV full width at half maximum (FWHM). Measurements of calorimeter line shapes are usually dominated by the natural linewidth of most laboratory calibration sources. This compounds the data acquisition time necessary to statistically sample the instrumental line broadening and can add systematic uncertainty if the intrinsic line shape of the source is not well known. To address these issues, we have built a simple, compact monochromatic x-ray source using channel cut crystals. A commercial x-ray tube illuminates a pair of channel cut crystals that are aligned in a dispersive configuration to select the Kα1 line of the x-ray tube anode material. The entire device, including the x-ray tube, can be easily hand-carried by one person and may be positioned manually or using a mechanical translation stage. The output monochromatic beam provides a collimated image of the anode spot with magnification of unity in the dispersion direction (typically 100 μm–200 μm for the x-ray tubes used here) and is unfocused in the cross-dispersion direction so that the source image in the detector plane appears as a line. We measured output count rates as high as 10 count/s/pixel for the Hitomi soft x-ray spectrometer, which had 819 μm square pixels. We implemented different monochromator designs for energies of 5.4 keV (one design) and 8.0 keV (two designs), which have effective theoretical FWHM energy resolution of 0.125 eV, 0.197 eV, and 0.086 eV, respectively; these are well-suited for optimal calibration measurements of state-of-the art x-ray calorimeters. We measured an upper limit for the energy resolution of our Cr Kα1 monochromator of 0.7 eV FWHM at 5.4 keV, consistent with the theoretical prediction of 0.125 eV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and weak lensing

We present the first cosmology results from large-scale structure using the full 5000 deg 2 of imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Data Release 1. We perform an analysis of large-scale structure combining three two-point correlation functions ( 3 × 2 pt ): (i) cosmic shear using 100 million source galaxies, (ii) galaxy clustering, and (iii) the cross-correlation of source galaxy shear with lens galaxy positions, galaxy–galaxy lensing. To achieve the cosmological precision enabled by these measurements has required updates to nearly every part of the analysis from DES Year 1, including the use of two independent galaxy clustering samples, modeling advances, and several novel improvements in the calibration of gravitational shear and photometric redshift inference. The analysis was performed under strict conditions to mitigate confirmation or observer bias; we describe specific changes made to the lens galaxy sample following unblinding of the results and tests of the robustness of our results to this decision. We model the data within the flat Λ CDM and w CDM cosmological models, marginalizing over 25 nuisance parameters. We find consistent cosmological results between the three two-point correlation functions; their combination yields clustering amplitude S 8 = 0.77 6 - 0.017 + 0.017 and matter density Ω m = 0.33 9 - 0.031 + 0.032 in Λ CDM , mean with 68% confidence limits; S 8 = 0.77 5 - 0.024 + 0.026 , Ω m = 0.35 2 - 0.041 + 0.035 , and dark energy equation-of-state parameter w = - 0.9 8 - 0.20 + 0.32 in w CDM . These constraints correspond to an improvement in signal-to-noise of the DES Year 3 3 × 2 pt data relative to DES Year 1 by a factor of 2.1, about 20% more than expected from the increase in observing area alone. This combination of DES data is consistent with the prediction of the model favored by the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy data, which is quantified with a probability-to-exceed p = 0.13 –0.48. We find better agreement between DES 3 × 2 pt and Planck than in DES Y1, despite the significantly improved precision of both. When combining DES 3 × 2 pt data with available baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift-space distortion, and type Ia supernovae data, we find p = 0.34 . Combining all of these datasets with Planck CMB lensing yields joint parameter constraints of S 8 = 0.81 2 - 0.008 + 0.008 , Ω m = 0.30 6 - 0.005 + 0.004 , h = 0.68 0 - 0.003 + 0.004 , and ∑ m ν < 0.13 eV (95% C.L.) in Λ CDM ; S 8 = 0.81 2 - 0.008 + 0.008 , Ω m = 0.30 2 - 0.006 + 0.006 , h = 0.68 7 - 0.007 + 0.006 , and w = - 1.03 1 - 0.027 + 0.030 in w CDM .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measuring the Muon Neutrino Magnetic Moment in the NOvA Near Detector

Measuring an enhanced neutrino magnetic moment would be a clear indication of physics beyond the Standard Model, shedding light on the correct beyond Standard Model theory or the potential Majorana nature of neutrinos. It would manifest in the NOvA near detector as an excess of neutrino-on-electron elastic scattering interactions at low electron recoil energies. Leveraging an intense and highly pure muon neutrino beam, along with a finely segmented liquid scintillator detector technology specifically designed for electromagnetic shower separation, enables NOvA to achieve a potentially world-leading sensitivity in probing the effective muon neutrino magnetic moment. This analysis, based on neutrino data collected between 2014 and 2021, corresponding to an exposure of $13.8\times10^{20}$ protons-on-target, yields a result consistent with the Standard Model-only hypothesis with a p-value of 0.31. An upper limit on the effective muon neutrino magnetic moment is set at $\mu_{\nu_\mu}<19.1\times 10^{-10}\mu_B$ at $90\%$ confidence level. Despite facing statistical limitations stemming from low cross section of the signal process, systematic uncertainties have a significant impact on this result. To address these challenges, the NOvA Test Beam experiment focuses on mitigating some of the largest systematic uncertainties within NOvA by investigating particle interactions and energy deposition in a small-scale replica NOvA detector. This thesis describes the calibration of the NOvA Test Beam detector, which is a crucial step in analysing the Test Beam data before they can be utilised to reduce NOvA systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multiprobe cosmology from the abundance of SPT clusters and DES galaxy clustering and weak lensing

Cosmic shear, galaxy clustering, and the abundance of massive halos each probe the large-scale structure of the Universe in complementary ways. We present cosmological constraints from the joint analysis of the three probes, building on the latest analyses of the lensing-informed abundance of clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and of the auto- and cross-correlation of galaxy position and weak lensing measurements (3 × 2 ⁢pt) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We consider the cosmological correlation between the different tracers and we account for the systematic uncertainties that are shared between the large-scale lensing correlation functions and the small-scale lensing-based cluster mass calibration. Marginalized over the remaining Λ cold dark matter (Λ ⁢CDM) parameters (including the sum of neutrino masses) and 52 astrophysical modeling parameters, we measure Ω m = 0.300 ± 0.017 and 𝜎 8 = 0.797 ± 0.026. Compared to constraints from Planck primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, our constraints are only 15% wider with a probability to exceed of 0.22 (1.2⁢𝜎) for the two-parameter difference. We further obtain 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.796 ± 0.013 which is lower than the Planck measurement at the 1.6⁢𝜎 level. The combined SPT cluster, DES 3 ×2 ⁢pt, and Planck datasets mildly prefer a nonzero positive neutrino mass, with a 95% upper limit ∑ 𝑚 𝜈 < 0.25 eV on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming a 𝑤⁢CDM model, we constrain the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 = −1.1⁢5$^{+0.23}_{−0.17}$ and when combining with Planck primary CMB anisotropies, we recover 𝑤 = −1.2⁢0$^{+0.15}_{−0.09}$, a 1.7⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. The precision of our results highlights the benefits of multiwavelength multiprobe cosmology and our analysis paves the way for upcoming joint analyses of next-generation datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian optimization to design a novel x-ray shaping device

In radiation therapy, x-ray dose must be precisely sculpted to the tumor, while simultaneously avoiding surrounding organs at risk. This requires modulation of x-ray intensity in space and/or time. Typically, this is achieved using a multi leaf collimator (MLC) - a complex mechatronic device comprising over one hundred individually powered tungsten ‘leaves’ that move in or out of the radiation field as required. Here, an all-electronic x-ray collimation concept with no moving parts is presented, termed “SPHINX”: Scanning Pencil-beam High-speed Intensity-modulated X-ray source. SPHINX utilizes a spatially distributed bremsstrahlung target and collimator array in conjunction with magnetic scanning of a high energy electron beam to generate a plurality of small x-ray “beamlets.” A simulation framework was developed in Topas Monte Carlo incorporating a phase space electron source, transport through user defined magnetic fields, bremsstrahlung x-ray production, transport through a SPHINX collimator, and dose in water. This framework was completely parametric, meaning a simulation could be built and run for any supplied geometric parameters. This functionality was coupled with Bayesian optimization to find the best parameter set based on an objective function which included terms to maximize dose rate for a user defined beamlet width while constraining inter-channel cross talk and electron contamination. Designs for beamlet widths of 5, 7, and 10 mm 2 were generated. Each optimization was run for 300 iterations and took approximately 40 h on a 24-core computer. For the optimized 7-mm model, a simulation of all beamlets in water was carried out including a linear scanning magnet calibration simulation. Finally, a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism was developed and used to estimate dose rate under various conditions. The optimized 5–, 7–, and 10-mm models had beamlet widths of 5.1 , 7.2 , and 10.1 mm 2 and dose rates of 3574, 6351, and 10 015 Gy/C, respectively. The reduction in dose rate for smaller beamlet widths is a result of both increased collimation and source occlusion. For the simulation of all beamlets in water, the scanning magnet calibration reduced the offset between the collimator channels and beam centroids from 2.9 ±1.9 mm to 0.01 ±0.03 mm. A slight reduction in dose rate of approximately 2% per degree of scanning angle was observed. Based on a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism, SPHINX in conjunction with next-generation linear accelerators has the potential to achieve substantially higher dose rates than conventional MLC-based delivery, with delivery of an intensity modulated 100 x 100 mm 2 field achievable in 0.9 to 10.6 s depending on the beamlet widths used. Bayesian optimization was coupled with Monte Carlo modeling to generate SPHINX geometries for various beamlet widths. A complete Monte Carlo simulation for one of these designs was developed, including electron beam transport of all beamlets through scanning magnets, x-ray production and collimation, and dose in water. These results demonstrate that SPHINX is a promising candidate for sculpting radiation dose with no moving parts, and has the potential to vastly improve both the speed and robustness of radiotherapy delivery. A multi-beam SPHINX system may be a candidate for delivering magavoltage FLASH RT in humans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Coupled Boltzmann transport equations of heavy quarks and quarkonia in quark-gluon plasma

We develop a framework of coupled transport equations for open heavy flavor and quarkonium states, in order to describe their transport inside the quark-gluon plasma. Our framework is capable of studying simultaneously both open and hidden heavy flavor observables in heavy-ion collision experiments and can account for both, uncorrelated and correlated recombination. Our recombination implementation depends on real-time open heavy quark and antiquark distributions. We carry out consistency tests to show how the interplay among open heavy flavor transport, quarkonium dissociation and recombination drives the system to equilibrium. We then apply our framework to study bottomonium production in heavy-ion collisions. We include Υ(1S), Υ(2S), Υ(3S), χb (1P) and χb (2P) in the framework and take feed-down contributions during the hadronic gas stage into account. Cold nuclear matter effects are included by using nuclear parton distribution functions for the initial primordial heavy flavor production. A calibrated 2 + 1 dimensional viscous hydrodynamics is used to describe the bulk QCD medium. We calculate both the nuclear modification factor R AA of all bottomonia states and the azimuthal angular anisotropy coefficient v 2 of the Υ(1S) state and find that our results agree reasonably with experimental measurements. Our calculations indicate that correlated cross-talk recombination is an important production mechanism of bottomonium in current heavy-ion experiments. The importance of correlated recombination can be tested experimentally by measuring the ratio of R AA ( χb (1P)) and R AA (Υ(2S)).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Robust Adaptive Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation with Unknown Control Inputs using Field PMU Measurements

This paper proposes a robust adaptive decentralized dynamic state estimation method for power system with unknown inputs of the highly detailed synchronous machine model. The temporal and spatial correlations among the unknown inputs are used to derive a vector auto-regressive model. The latter is further integrated together with state transition and measurement models for joint state and unknown inputs estimation. Thanks to the consideration of implicit cross-correlations between the states and the unknown inputs, only generator terminal voltage and current phasors are needed. Test results on the US WECC system using the field PMU measurements show that the proposed method is able to track both the system dynamic states and unknown controller inputs. These information could significantly benefit the validation and calibration of generator controller parameters.

Zhao, Junbo↗

Temperature and Dynamic Strain Measurements Using a Single SAWR Sensor

Dynamic strain sensing is relevant in numerous applications involving structural health monitoring, condition-based maintenance, operation efficiency preservation, and work environment safety. These sensors are particularly critical for high-temperature (HT) harsh-environment (HE) industries such as aerospace, automotive, power plants, and advanced manufacturing. In HT/HE, sensor implementation and measurement present challenges such as maintaining sensor stability, accounting for temperature cross-sensitivity, providing HT attachment, and packaging of the sensors and system. Surface acoustic wave resonator (SAWR) sensors can address these needs and offer additional benefits such as compact size and wireless interrogation capability. The SAWR sensitivity to dynamic strain is temperature dependent, making it necessary to measure the sensor temperature in order to use the correct dynamic strain calibration curve. In this work, a method for determining the temperature, dynamic strain magnitude, and dynamic strain spectral components using a single SAWR sensor is presented. Here, the established technique for determining operational temperature and dynamic strain magnitude/spectral components using only one SAWR simplifies the sensor measurement system, thus being very attractive for HT /HE applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Snowmass Computational Frontier: Topical Group Report on Experimental Algorithm Parallelization

The substantial increase in data volume and complexity expected from future experiments will require significant investment to prepare experimental algorithms. These algorithms include physics object reconstruction, calibrations, and processing of observational data. In addition, the changing computing architecture landscape, which will be primarily composed of heterogeneous resources, will continue to pose major challenges with regard to algorithmic migration. Portable tools need to be developed that can be shared among the frontiers (e.g., for code execution on different platforms) and opportunities, such as forums or cross-experimental working groups, need to be provided where experiences and lessons learned can be shared between experiments and frontiers. At the same time, individual experiments also need to invest considerable resources to develop algorithms unique to their needs (e.g., for facilities dedicated to the experiment), and ensure that their specific algorithms will be able to efficiently exploit external heterogeneous computing facilities. Common software tools represent a cost-effective solution, providing ready-to-use software solutions as well as a platform for R&D work. These are particularly important for small experiments which typically do not have dedicated resources needed to face the challenges imposed by the evolving computing technologies. Workforce development is a key concern across frontiers and experiments, and additional support is needed to provide career opportunities for researchers working in the field of experimental algorithm development. Finally, cross-discipline collaborations going beyond high-energy physics are a key ingredient to address the challenges ahead and more support for such collaborations needs to be created. This report targets future experiments, observations and experimental algorithm development for the next 10-15 years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Measurements of clustering of SDSS-BOSS galaxies, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and cosmic shear

Here we utilize the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS-BOSS) galaxies and its overlap with approximately 416 sq degrees of deep grizy-band imaging from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). We perform measurements of three two-point correlations which form the basis of the cosmological inference presented in our companion papers, Miyatake et al. and Sugiyama et al. We use three approximately volume limited subsamples of spectroscopic galaxies by their i-band magnitude from the SDSS-BOSS: LOWZ (0.1 < z < 0.35), CMASS1 (0.43 < z < 0.55) and CMASS2 (0.55 < z < 0.7), respectively. We present high signal-to-noise ratio measurements of the projected correlation functions of these galaxies, which is expected to be proportional to the projected matter correlation function on large scales with a proportionality constant dependent on the bias of galaxies. In order to help break the degeneracy between the amplitude of the matter correlation and the bias of these spectroscopic galaxies, we use the distortions of the shapes of fainter galaxies in HSC due to weak gravitational lensing, to measure the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal, which probes the projected galaxy-matter cross-correlation function of the SDSS-BOSS galaxies. We also measure the cosmic shear correlation functions from HSC galaxies which is related to the projected matter correlation function. We demonstrate the robustness of our measurements by subjecting each of them to a variety of systematic tests. Our use of a single sample of HSC source galaxies is crucial to calibrate any residual systematic biases in the inferred redshifts of our galaxies. We also describe the construction of a suite of mocks: (i) spectroscopic galaxy catalogs which obey the clustering and abundance of each of the three SDSS-BOSS subsamples, and (ii) galaxy shape catalogs which obey the footprint of the HSC survey and have been appropriately sheared by the large-scale structure expected in a Lambda Cold Dark Matter model. Finally, we use these mock catalogs to compute the covariance of each of our observables.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Shake loss intensities in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy: Theory, experiment, and atomic composition accuracy for MgO and related compounds

The relative intensities of XPS core levels, scaled by their photoionization cross sections, are regularly used to determine sample atomic composition. Cross sections, however, give the intensity to all possible final states for the core ionizations, not just to the main peak. This includes all intrinsic satellite structure (shake states and, for open shell systems, the different ionic multiplets). In practice, for solids, this is usually experimentally impossible to determine accurately because such a satellite structure sits on the inelastically scattered electron background and cannot be easily separated. Therefore, usually, only the intensity of the main peak is used. This limits the ultimate possible accuracy of XPS composition determination. The purpose of the present paper is to examine the contributions that a theoretical analysis of losses of intensity can make to improve quantitation. For an MgO single crystal, we show that the correct stoichiometry of 1:1 can be recovered using the theoretical analysis of the experimental MgO peak ratio intensities. For materials with a sufficient bandgap for the XPS main peaks to be separated from the scattered background, the intensity of main peaks can often be accurately determined. Thus, if one uses theory to calculate that fraction of the total intensity lost from a main peak into all its satellite structure, the intensity of just main peaks could then be used to more accurately determine relative atom % composition. This work tests this approach using a single crystal MgO (50% Mg, 50% O) standard. Ab initio electronic structure theory of representative MgO clusters is used to determine Hartree–Fock wave functions for the ground state and final ionized states corresponding to the main Mg 2p and O1s XPS peaks of the oxide. The sudden approximation, SA, is used to determine the fractional losses from these main peaks to shake satellites, which is found to be greater for O1s than Mg2p. This results in predicted “apparent composition” for stoichiometric MgO of 55.2% Mg, 44.8% O instead of the true 50% Mg, 50% O. Equivalent theory for CaO results in a predicted apparent Ca value of 53.4%. Experimentally, using Mg2s or 2p intensity ratio to O1s, we find values between 52.2% and 56.0% Mg using two crystals and four different instrument electron pass energies. The average value of the measurements is 54.5% Mg when corrected for the presence of an adventitious carbon overlayer and slight surface hydroxide. Though this agreement with theory may be somewhat fortuitous, given the potential experimental errors, which are fully discussed, it is similar to that in our earlier study on LiF. We also present preliminary experimental data on Mg(OH) 2 and MgSO 4 , which show a similar trend of apparently higher than 50% Mg, but we have no theory values. We are not yet able to experimentally test for validation of the difference between apparent composition for MgO (55.2% Mg) and CaO (53.4% Ca), owing to significant carbonate formation at the surface of the single crystal CaO. Here, an important conclusion is that the theoretical determination of shake losses, obtained with ab initio wavefunctions and the SA, is likely to be a useful way to calibrate the accuracy and reliability of compositions obtained from XPS intensities and merits further study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗