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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control of a Three-Phase Grid-Connected Voltage-Sourced Converter Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks

With the rise of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within the power system, the control of grid-connected converters (GCCs) has become pertinent due to the fact they interface IBRs to the grid. The conventional method of control for a GCC such as the voltage-sourced converter (VSC) is through a decoupled control loop in the synchronous reference frame. However, this model-based control method is sensitive to parameter changes causing deterioration in controller performance. Data-driven approaches such as machine learning can be utilized to design controllers that are capable of operating GCCs in various system conditions. This work explores a deep learning-based control method for a three-phase grid-connected VSC, specifically utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) network for robust control. Simulations of a conventional controlled VSC are conducted using Simulink to collect data for training the LSTM-based controller. The LSTM model is built and trained using the Keras and TensorFlow libraries in Python and tested in Simulink. The performance of the LSTM-based controller is evaluated under different case studies and compared to the conventional method of control. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by outperforming the conventional controller and maintaining stability under different system parameter changes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The northeast materials database for magnetic materials

The discovery of magnetic materials with high operating temperature ranges and optimized performance is essential for advanced applications. Current data-driven approaches are limited by the lack of accurate, comprehensive, and feature-rich databases. This study aims to address this challenge by using Large Language Models (LLMs) to create a comprehensive, experiment-based, magnetic materials database named the Northeast Materials Database (NEMAD), which consists of 67,573 magnetic materials entries (www.nemad.org). The database incorporates chemical composition, magnetic phase transition temperatures, structural details, and magnetic properties. Enabled by NEMAD, we trained machine learning models to classify materials and predict transition temperatures. Our classification model achieved an accuracy of 90% in categorizing materials as ferromagnetic (FM), antiferromagnetic (AFM), and non-magnetic (NM). The regression models predict Curie (Néel) temperature with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.87 (0.83) and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 56K (38K). These models identified 25 (13) FM (AFM) candidates with a predicted Curie (Néel) temperature above 500K (100K) from the Materials Project. This work shows the feasibility of combining LLMs for automated data extraction and machine learning models to accelerate the discovery of magnetic materials.

Ferromagnetism↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning an Algebriac Multrigrid Interpolation Operator Using a Modified GraphNet Architecture

This work, building on previous efforts, develops a suite of new graph neural network machine learning architectures that generate data-driven prolongators for use in Algebraic Multigrid (AMG). Algebraic Multigrid is a powerful and common technique for solving large, sparse linear systems. Its effectiveness is problem dependent and heavily depends on the choice of the prolongation operator, which interpolates the coarse mesh results onto a finer mesh. Previous work has used recent developments in graph neural networks to learn a prolongation operator from a given coefficient matrix. In this paper, we expand on previous work by exploring architectural enhancements of graph neural networks. A new method for generating a training set is developed which more closely aligns to the test set. Asymptotic error reduction factors are compared on a test suite of 3-dimensional Poisson problems with varying degrees of element stretching. Results show modest improvements in asymptotic error factor over both commonly chosen baselines and learning methods from previous work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction of systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms

Here in this work we present a non-intrusive model reduction method to learn low-dimensional models of dynamical systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms that are spatially local and that are given in analytic form. In contrast to state-of-the-art model reduction methods that are intrusive and thus require full knowledge of the governing equations and the operators of a full model of the discretized dynamical system, the proposed approach requires only the non-polynomial terms in analytic form and learns the rest of the dynamics from snapshots computed with a potentially black-box full-model solver. The proposed method learns operators for the linear and polynomially nonlinear dynamics via a least-squares problem, where the given non-polynomial terms are incorporated on the right-hand side. The least-squares problem is linear and thus can be solved efficiently in practice. The proposed method is demonstrated on three problems governed by partial differential equations, namely the diffusion–reaction Chafee–Infante model, a tubular reactor model for reactive flows, and a batch-chromatography model that describes a chemical separation process. The numerical results provide evidence that the proposed approach learns reduced models that achieve comparable accuracy as models constructed with state-of-the-art intrusive model reduction methods that require full knowledge of the governing equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

U-net architected deep material network training with microstructure local field information

The Deep Material Network (DMN) has recently emerged as a powerful reduced-order modeling framework for simulating the mechanical response of heterogeneous materials such as composites. Unlike most data-driven approaches that directly learn a material’s response under prescribed loading, the DMN acts as a homogenization operator, learning the kinematic constraints and mechanical interactions of the underlying microstructure. However, traditional DMN training relies exclusively on homogenized effective properties derived from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), discarding the rich local field data that govern microstructural interactions. In this work, we extend the DMN framework to incorporate such local field information into the offline training process. Utilizing a U-Net architecture, we augment the DMN training objective to include the first and second statistical moments of the local stress fields obtained from linear DNS. This ensures that the learned network topology not only fits the effective stiffness but also accurately reflects the internal local stress and strain partitioning of the microstructure. The results confirm that supervising the localization process during training yields a superior surrogate model, reducing local prediction errors by an order of magnitude and significantly improving generalization to unseen nonlinear constitutive behaviors compared to traditional DMNs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Inverter Controls for Resilient and Secure Grid Operation: Vector Control Design for Grid Forming

The project addresses both fundamental and practical challenges of GFM/GFL inverter control for the power grids with high inverter based resources (IBRs) penetration. A data- driven modeling technique is applied to accurately model dynamics of PWM inverters, including electromagnetic-transient (EMT). Systematic and integrative designs of grid- forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) primary controls are developed to guarantee system performance under either normal or abnormal operating conditions without violating constraints. This modeling and control framework provides black-start capability in case of an outage without relying on rotating generators, and its secondary control is also shown to enhance resilience against cyber-physical attacks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Physical Model Enhanced Data Driven Method for High-Resolution Residential Load Profile Generation

Residential buildings account for significant energy consumption, creating opportunities to offer grid services. As electric utilities seek to implement effective system operation strategies, understanding residential energy consumption patterns becomes essential; However, the time intervals of load profiles measured by utilities' smart meters are typically from 15 minutes to 60 minutes. The low-resolution data make it hard to extract appliance-level load information, which is critical for providing grid services. This paper presents a load profile generator designed to produce synthetic load profiles for residential buildings that emphasizes the importance of accurate representations of realistic energy consumption patterns. The generator takes realistic low-resolution residential load measurements and weather data as inputs, producing 1-minute interval profiles that match the characteristics of the original profiles. Further, this generator can be used to populate load profiles in areas where actual measurements are limited to improve the ability of utilities to analyze their distribution systems. By providing more high-resolution residential building load profiles, this tool supports electric utilities to enhance their residential building load control strategies and improve overall grid stability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fourier-DeepONet: Fourier-enhanced deep operator networks for full waveform inversion with improved accuracy, generalizability, and robustness

In this article, full waveform inversion (FWI) infers the subsurface structure information from seismic waveform data by solving a non-convex optimization problem. Data-driven FWI has been increasingly studied with various neural network architectures to improve accuracy and computational efficiency. Nevertheless, the applicability of pre-trained neural networks is severely restricted by potential discrepancies between the source function used in the field survey and the one utilized during training. Here, we develop a Fourier-enhanced deep operator network (Fourier-DeepONet) for FWI with the generalization of seismic sources, including the frequencies and locations of sources. Specifically, we employ the Fourier neural operator as the decoder of DeepONet, and we utilize source parameters as one input of Fourier-DeepONet, facilitating the resolution of FWI with variable sources. To test Fourier-DeepONet, we develop three new and realistic FWI benchmark datasets (FWI-F, FWI-L, and FWI-FL) with varying source frequencies, locations, or both. Our experiments demonstrate that compared with existing data-driven FWI methods, Fourier-DeepONet obtains more accurate predictions of subsurface structures in a wide range of source parameters. Moreover, the proposed Fourier-DeepONet exhibits superior robustness when handling data with Gaussian noise or missing traces and sources with Gaussian noise, paving the way for more reliable and accurate subsurface imaging across diverse real conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

To enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy through model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. However, a key factor prohibiting the widespread adoption of MPCs in nuclear applications is the effort and computational costs associated with learning and calibrating first-principles-based process models when the target system is complex and when there are gaps between modeled and target reactor systems. In this paper, we demonstrate data-driven MPC using three approaches for modeling the system dynamics, including a linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks long short-term memory. We present the development and validation process of each model and compare the performance of data-driven MPCs in controlling the temperatures of selected HPs at the evaporator and condenser regions in a 37-HP-monolith system. Our results show that, qualitatively, all data-driven MPCs are producing similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effective Local Geometry Descriptor for 29Si NMR Q4 Anisotropy

The nuclear shielding anisotropy, ζ, is a useful nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) shielding tensor parameter in describing the extent of electron cloud distortion about an atom. Despite the advantages afforded by NMR in structural characterization, the relationship between ζ and local structure of an atom in high-symmetry environments, such as Si-Q 4 sites, is poorly understood. Here, we use a data-driven approach combining random forest feature ranking and the Sure Independence Screening and Sparsifying Operator (SISSO) approach to derive a simple and accurate geometric descriptor for ζ with a root-mean-squared prediction error of 6.77 ppm and an R 2 of 0.761. We then apply this descriptor to describe the local geometric distortion of zeolites Sigma-2 and silica-ZSM-5 whose chemical shift anisotropy tensor has been reported. We envision that this geometric descriptor will allow for structural description and refinement in previously difficult-to-describe materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗