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DOE OSTI2023

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Surrogate-based Adaptive Sampling Approach for History Matching and Uncertainty Quantification

A critical procedure in reservoir simulations is history matching (or data assimilation in a broader sense), which calibrates model parameters such that the simulation results are consistent with field measurements, and hence improves the credibility of the predictions given by the simulations. Often there exist non-unique combinations of parameter values that all yield the simulation results matching the measurements. For such ill-posed history matching problems, Bayesian theorem provides a theoretical foundation to represent different solutions and to quantify the uncertainty with the posterior PDF. Lacking an analytical solution in most situations, the posterior PDF may be characterized with a sample of realizations, each representing a possible scenario. A novel sampling algorithm is presented here for the Bayesian solutions to history matching problems. We aim to deal with two commonly encountered issues: 1) as a result of the nonlinear input-output relationship in a reservoir model, the posterior distribution could be in a complex form, such as multimodal, which violates the Gaussian assumption required by most of the commonly used data assimilation approaches; 2) a typical sampling method requires intensive model evaluations and hence may cause unaffordable computational cost. In the developed algorithm, we use a Gaussian mixture model as the proposal distribution in the sampling process, which is simple but also flexible to approximate non-Gaussian distributions and is particularly efficient when the posterior is multimodal. Also, a Gaussian process is utilized as a surrogate model to speed up the sampling process. Furthermore, an iterative scheme of adaptive surrogate refinement and re-sampling ensures sampling accuracy while keeping the computational cost at a minimum level. The developed approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example and shows its capability in handling the above-mentioned issues. Multimodal posterior of the history matching problem is captured and are used to give a reliable production prediction with uncertainty quantification. The new algorithm reveals a great improvement in terms of computational efficiency comparing previously studied approaches for the sample problem.

Li, Weixuan↗

DOE OSTI2017

High Performance Data Transfer for Distributed Data Intensive Sciences

We report on the development of ZX software providing high performance data transfer and encryption. The design scales in: computation power, network interfaces, and IOPS while carefully balancing the available resources. Two U.S. patent-pending algorithms help tackle data sets containing lots of small files and very large files, and provide insensitivity to network latency. It has a cluster-oriented architecture, using peer-to-peer technologies to ease deployment, operation, usage, and resource discovery. Its unique optimizations enable effective use of flash memory. Using a pair of existing data transfer nodes at SLAC and NERSC, we compared its performance to that of bbcp and GridFTP and determined that they were comparable. With a proof of concept created using two four-node clusters with multiple distributed multi-core CPUs, network interfaces and flash memory, we achieved 155Gbps memory-to-memory over a 2x100Gbps link aggregated channel and 70Gbps file-to-file with encryption over a 5000 mile 100Gbps link.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Accuracy Module Emulators from Physically-Constrained AI Algorithms

Focal Area(s): How do we use AI tools to integrate observations, simulated data and physical and chemical fundamentals (Focal Area 3) into model components (Focal Area 2) that have high accuracy and stability and low computational burden to improve Earth System Predictability? Science Challenge: Earth system modeling of the hydrological cycle involves compute-intensive modules representing complex chemical and physical process. Recently, AI tools that are far less compute intensive have been developed that emulate these modules, but many of these efforts are not yet sufficiently accurate or even stable. We know a lot about the physics and chemistry of earth system processes. The Science Challenge is developing AI tools that not only incorporate observations and simulated data, but also incorporate the physics and chemistry of the process, while still maintaining the compute efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Toward Large-Scale Image Segmentation on Summit

Semantic segmentation of images is an important computer vision task that emerges in a variety of application domains such as medical imaging, robotic vision and autonomous vehicles to name a few. While these domain-specific image analysis tasks involve relatively small image sizes (~ 10 2 × 10 2 ), there are many applications that need to train machine learning models on image data with extents that are orders of magnitude larger (~10 4 × 10 4 ). Training deep neural network (DNN) models on large extent images is extremely memory-intensive and often exceeds the memory limitations of a single graphical processing unit, a hardware accelerator of choice for computer vision workloads. Here, an efficient, sample parallel approach to train U-Net models on large extent image data sets is presented. Its advantages and limitations are analyzed and near-linear strong-scaling speedup demonstrated on 256 nodes (1536 GPUs) of the Summit supercomputer. Using a single node of the Summit supercomputer, an early evaluation of a recently released model parallel framework called GPipe is demonstrated to deliver ~ 2X speedup in executing a U-Net model with an order of magnitude larger number of trainable parameters than reported before. Performance bottlenecks for pipelined training of U-Net models are identified and mitigation strategies to improve the speedups are discussed. Together, these results open up the possibility of combining both approaches into a unified scalable pipelined and data parallel algorithm to efficiently train U-Net models with very large receptive fields on data sets of ultra-large extent images.

Seal, Sudip↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Rapid Calculation of Binding Affinities for Antigen and Antibody Design and Affinity Maturation Simulations

The accurate and efficient calculation of protein-protein binding affinities is an essential component in antibody and antigen design and optimization, and in computer modeling of antibody affinity maturation. Such calculations remain challenging despite advances in computer hardware and algorithms, primarily because proteins are flexible molecules, and thus, require explicit or implicit incorporation of multiple conformational states into the computational procedure. The astronomical size of the amino acid sequence space further compounds the challenge by requiring predictions to be computed within a short time so that many sequence variants can be tested. In this study, we compare three classes of methods for antibody/antigen (Ab/Ag) binding affinity calculations: (i) a method that relies on the physical separation of the Ab/Ag complex in equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, (ii) a collection of 18 scoring functions that act on an ensemble of structures created using homology modeling software, and (iii) methods based on the molecular mechanics-generalized Born surface area (MM-GBSA) energy decomposition, in which the individual contributions of the energy terms are scaled to optimize agreement with the experiment. When applied to a set of 49 antibody mutations in two Ab/HIV gp120 complexes, all of the methods are found to have modest accuracy, with the highest Pearson correlations reaching about 0.6. In particular, the most computationally intensive method, i.e., MD simulation, did not outperform several scoring functions. The optimized energy decomposition methods provided marginally higher accuracy, but at the expense of requiring experimental data for parametrization. Within each method class, we examined the effect of the number of independent computational replicates, i.e., modeled structures or reinitialized MD simulations, on the prediction accuracy. We suggest using about ten modeled structures for scoring methods, and about five simulation replicates for MD simulations as a rule of thumb for obtaining reasonable convergence. We anticipate that our study will be a useful resource for practitioners working to incorporate binding affinity calculations within their protein design and optimization process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Identification of lithium hydride and its hydrolysis products with neutron imaging

In this study, lithium hydride (LiH) and its hydrolysis products were investigated non-destructively with neutron radiography and neutron computed tomography. Relative neutron transmission intensities (I/I 0 ) were measured for LiOH, Li 2 O and LiH, and their linear attenuation coefficients calculated from this data. We show that 7 Li is necessary for creating large differences in I/I 0 for facile identification of these compounds. The thermal decomposition of LiOH to Li 2 O was also observed with neutron radiography. Computed tomography shows that the samples were fairly homogeneous, with very few macroscopic defects. Lastly, the results shown here demonstrate the feasibility of observing LiH hydrolysis with neutron imaging techniques in real time.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unsupervised classification for region of interest in X-ray ptychography

X-ray ptychography offers high-resolution imaging of large areas at a high computational cost due to the large volume of data provided. To address the cost issue, we propose a physics-informed unsupervised classification algorithm that is performed prior to reconstruction and removes data outside the region of interest (RoI) based on the multimodal features present in the diffraction patterns. The preprocessing time for the proposed method is inconsequential in contrast to the resource-intensive reconstruction process, leading to an impressive reduction in the data workload to a mere 20% of the initial dataset. This capability consequently reduces computational time dramatically while preserving reconstruction quality. Through further segmentation of the diffraction patterns, our proposed approach can also detect features that are smaller than beam size and correctly classify them as within the RoI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results: III. High frequency instrument data processing and frequency maps

This paper presents the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data processing procedures for the Planck 2018 release. Major improvements in mapmaking have been achieved since the previous Planck 2015 release, many of which were used and described already in an intermediate paper dedicated to the Planck polarized data at low multipoles. These improvements enabled the first significant measurement of the reionization optical depth parameter using Planck-HFI data. This paper presents an extensive analysis of systematic effects, including the use of end-to-end simulations to facilitate their removal and characterize the residuals. The polarized data, which presented a number of known problems in the 2015 Planck release, are very significantly improved, especially the leakage from intensity to polarization. Calibration, based on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) dipole, is now extremely accurate and in the frequency range 100-353 GHz reduces intensity-to-polarization leakage caused by calibration mismatch. The Solar dipole direction has been determined in the three lowest HFI frequency channels to within one arc minute, and its amplitude has an absolute uncertainty smaller than 0.35 μK, an accuracy of order 10 -4 . This is a major legacy from the Planck HFI for future CMB experiments. The removal of bandpass leakage has been improved for the main high-frequency foregrounds by extracting the bandpass-mismatch coefficients for each detector as part of the mapmaking process; these values in turn improve the intensity maps. This is a major change in the philosophy of "frequency maps", which are now computed from single detector data, all adjusted to the same average bandpass response for the main foregrounds. End-to-end simulations have been shown to reproduce very well the relative gain calibration of detectors, as well as drifts within a frequency induced by the residuals of the main systematic effect (analogue-to-digital convertor non-linearity residuals). Using these simulations, we have been able to measure and correct the small frequency calibration bias induced by this systematic effect at the 10 -4 level. There is no detectable sign of a residual calibration bias between the first and second acoustic peaks in the CMB channels, at the 10 -3 level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing magnetized plasmas with dynamic mode decomposition

Accurate and efficient plasma models are essential to understand and control experimental devices. Existing magnetohydrodynamic or kinetic models are nonlinear and computationally intensive and can be difficult to interpret, while often only approximating the true dynamics. In this work, data-driven techniques recently developed in the field of fluid dynamics are leveraged to develop interpretable reduced-order models of plasmas that strike a balance between accuracy and efficiency. In particular, dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to extract spatio-temporal magnetic coherent structures from the experimental and simulation datasets of the helicity injected torus with steady inductive (HIT-SI) experiment. Three-dimensional magnetic surface probes from the HIT-SI experiment are analyzed, along with companion simulations with synthetic internal magnetic probes. A number of leading variants of the DMD algorithm are compared, including the sparsity-promoting and optimized DMD. Optimized DMD results in the highest overall prediction accuracy, while sparsity-promoting DMD yields physically interpretable models that avoid overfitting. These DMD algorithms uncover several coherent magnetic modes that provide new physical insights into the inner plasma structure. These modes were subsequently used to discover a previously unobserved three-dimensional structure in the simulation, rotating at the second injector harmonic. Finally, using data from probes at experimentally accessible locations, DMD identifies a resistive kink mode, a ubiquitous instability seen in magnetized plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Anastomosing hemangioma of the liver: a case series

Purpose: To report imaging and pathologic features of five pathologically proven anastomosing hemangiomas of the liver (AHL). Methods: A retrospective review for AHL was conducted using our institutional database from 6/2004 to 3/2018. Histology proven AHL with radiologic imaging available for review were included. A total of five patients who met our criteria were identified from our institutional database. Computed tomography, ultrasound, and magnetic resonance imaging findings, including location, size, attenuation/signal intensity, enhancement characteristics, and additional imaging data were reviewed. The clinical and pathological data were also reviewed. Results: The imaging characteristics of AHL are variable, but features such as peripheral or diffuse hyperintensity on diffusion weighted imaging, arterial hyperenhancement without globular interrupted enhancement, and persistent enhancement without complete filling in the delayed phases were more characteristic of AHL. Imaging also demonstrated a lack of aggressive features. Conclusions: AHL present a diagnostic dilemma as they can mimic more malignant lesions, such as angiosarcoma, both on imaging and at pathology. While the imaging characteristics of AHL are variable, there are some features which can help distinguish AHL from other liver lesions. When the diagnosis of anastomosing hemangioma is known, the management of choice is primarily surveillance, as intervention can cause unnecessary morbidity, and no degeneration to malignancy has been identified to date.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent advances in describing and driving crystal nucleation using machine learning and artificial intelligence

With the advent of faster computer processors and especially graphics processing units (GPUs) over the last few decades, the use of data-intensive machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) has increased greatly, and the study of crystal nucleation has been one of the beneficiaries. In this study, we outline how ML and AI have been applied to address four outstanding difficulties of crystal nucleation: how to discover better reaction coordinates (RCs) for describing accurately non-classical nucleation situations; the development of more accurate force fields for describing the nucleation of multiple polymorphs or phases for a single system; more robust identification methods for determining crystal phases and structures; and as a method to yield improved course-grained models for studying nucleation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2013

Theoretical rotation-vibration spectrum of thioformaldehyde

We present a variational calculation of the first comprehensive T = 300 K rovibrational line list for thioformaldehyde, H{sub 2}CS. It covers 41 809 rovibrational levels for states up to J{sub max} = 30 with vibrational band origins up to 5000 cm{sup −1} and provides the energies and line intensities for 547 926 transitions from the ground vibrational state to these levels. It is based on our previously reported accurate ab initio potential energy surface and a newly calculated ab initio dipole moment surface. Minor empirical adjustments are made to the ab initio equilibrium geometry to reduce systematic errors in the predicted intra-band rotational energy levels. The rovibrational energy levels and transition intensities are computed variationally by using the methods implemented in the computer program TROVE. Transition wavelengths and intensities are found to be in excellent agreement with the available experimental data. The present calculations correctly reproduce the observed resonance effects, such as intensity borrowing, thus reflecting the high accuracy of the underlying ab initio surfaces. We report a detailed analysis of several vibrational bands, especially those complicated by strong Coriolis coupling, to facilitate future laboratory assignments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Static and dynamic properties of multi-ionic plasma mixtures

Complex plasma mixtures with three or more components are often encountered in astrophysics or in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. For mixtures containing species with large differences in atomic number Z, the modeling needs to consider at the same time the kinetic theory for low-Z elements combined with the theory of strongly coupled plasma for high-Z elements, as well as all the intermediate situations that can appear in multi-component systems. For such cases, we study the pair distribution functions, self-diffusions, mutual diffusion and viscosity for ternary mixtures at extreme conditions. These quantities can be produced from first principles using orbital free molecular dynamics at the computational expense of very intensive simulations to reach good statistics. Utilizing the first-principles results as reference data, we assess the merit of a global analytic model for transport coefficients, "Pseudo-Ions in Jellium" (PIJ), based on an iso-electronic assumption (iso-n e ). With a multi-component hypernetted-chain integral equation, we verify the quality of the iso-n e prescription for describing the static structure of the mixtures. This semi-analytical modeling compares well with the simulation results and allows one to consider plasma mixtures not accessible to simulations. Further, applications are given for the mix of materials in ICF experiments. A reduction of a multicomponent mixture to an effective binary mixture is also established in the hydrodynamic limit and compared with PIJ estimations for ICF relevant mixtures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Tall Tower Wind Energy Monitoring and Numerical Model Validation in Northern Nevada

The main objectives of this project were to conduct a tall-tower and sodar field campaign in complex terrain, investigate wind properties relevant to wind energy assessment, and evaluate high-resolution models with fixed and adaptive grid structures. Two 60-m towers at Virginia Peak ridges near Washoe Valley, Nevada, were instrumented with cup and vane anemometers as well as sonic anemometers, and an acoustic sounder (hereafter sodar) was installed near one of the towers. The towers were located 2,700 m apart with a vertical distance of 140 m elevation between their bases. Each tower had a downhill exposure of rolling complex terrain, with the nearby valley floor 3,200 m to the west and 800 m below the summit. Cup anemometers were installed at both towers at 20, 40, and 60 m, wind vanes at 20 and 60 m, and sonic anemometers at 20 and 60 m. The sodar measurements were nominally provided every 10 m in vertical distance from 40 to 200 m with the quality of the data generally decreasing with height. Surface air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and radiation measurements were conducted at 1.5 m AGL at both of the towers. Although the plan was to conduct a 1-year period of data collection, we extended the period (October 5, 2012 through February 24, 2014) to cover for possible data loss from instrument or communication problems. We also present a preliminary analysis of the towers and sodar data, including a detailed inventory of available and missing data as well as outliers. The analysis additionally includes calculation of the Weibull parameters, turbulence intensity, and initial computation of wind power density at various heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed non-negative matrix factorization with determination of the number of latent features

The holistic analysis and understanding of the latent (that is, not directly observable) variables and patterns buried in large datasets is crucial for data-driven science, decision making and emergency response. Such exploratory analyses require devising unsupervised learning methods for data mining and extraction of the latent features, and non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is one of the prominent such methods. NMF is based on compute-intense non-convex constrained minimization, which, for large datasets requires fast and distributed algorithms. However, current parallel implementations of NMF fail to estimate the number of latent features. In practice, identifying these features is both difficult and significant for pattern recognition and latent feature analysis, especially for large dense matrices. Here, we introduce a distributed NMF algorithm coupled with distributed custom clustering followed by a stability analysis on dense data, which we call DnMFk, to determine the number of latent variables. The results on synthetic data and the classical Swimmer data set demonstrate the accuracy of model determination while scaling nearly linearly across multiple processors for large data. Further, we employ DnMFk to determine the number of hidden features from a terabyte matrix.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

TRIO: Burst Buffer Based I/O Orchestration, In: 2015 IEEE International Conference on Cluster Computing

The growing computing power on leadership HPC systems is often accompanied by ever-escalating failure rates. Checkpointing is a common defensive mechanism used by scientific applications for failure recovery. However, directly writing the large and bursty checkpointing dataset to parallel file systems can incur significant I/O contention on storage servers. Such contention in turn degrades bandwidth utilization of storage servers and prolongs the average job I/O time of concurrent applications. Recently burst buffers have been proposed as an intermediate layer to absorb the bursty I/O traffic from compute nodes to storage backend. But an I/O orchestration mechanism is still desirable to efficiently move checkpointing data from burst buffers to storage backend. In this paper, we propose a burst buffer based I/O orchestration framework, named TRIO, to intercept and reshape the bursty writes for better sequential write traffic to storage servers. Meanwhile, TRIO coordinates the flushing orders among concurrent burst buffers to alleviate the contention on storage server. Our experimental results demonstrated that TRIO could efficiently utilize storage bandwidth and reduce the average job I/O time by 37% on average for data-intensive applications in typical checkpointing scenarios.

Computer Science↗