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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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260 records · Page 15

JAX-CanVeg: A Differentiable Land Surface Model

Land surface models consider the exchange of water, energy, and carbon along the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, which is challenging to model due to their complex interdependency and associated challenges in representing and parameterizing them. Differentiable modeling provides a new opportunity to capture these complex interactions by seamlessly hybridizing process-based models with deep neural networks (DNNs), benefiting both worlds, that is, the physical interpretation of process-based models and the learning power of DNNs. Here, we developed a differentiable land model, JAX-CanVeg. The new model builds on the legacy CanVeg by incorporating advanced functionalities through JAX in the graphic processing unit support, automatic differentiation, and integration with DNNs. We demonstrated JAX-CanVeg's hybrid modeling capability by applying the model at four flux tower sites with varying aridity. To this end, we developed a hybrid version of the Ball-Berry equation that emulates the water stress impact on stomatal closure to explore the capability of the hybrid model in (a) improving the simulations of latent heat fluxes (LE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), (b) improving the optimization trade-off when learning observations of both LE and NEE, and (c) benefiting a multi-layer canopy model setup. Our results show that the proposed hybrid model improved the simulations of LE and NEE at all sites, with an improved optimization trade-off over the process-based model. Additionally, the multi-layer canopy set benefited hybrid modeling at some sites. Anchored in differentiable modeling, our study provides a new avenue for modeling land-atmosphere interactions by leveraging the benefits of both data-driven learning and process-based modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Turbulence and Cloudiness in Cumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layers

Turbulence and cloudiness in cumulus-topped marine boundary layers are studied using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site. The analysis includes eight periods of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds, spanning 141 h and encompassing 603 individual clouds. On average, the cumulus had bases at 558 m, were 99 m thick, had a chord length of 500 m, and exhibited an hourly base-layer cloudiness of 12%. Changes in cloud fraction were primarily driven by variations in cloud number not chord length. High-resolution Doppler lidar and cloud radar observations were used to estimate updraft and downdraft mass fluxes in the cumulus base layer under both clear and cloudy regions. Cloudy updrafts contributed only ∼23% of the total updraft mass flux at cloud base, indicating that most upward mass flux originated from clear-air eddies. Updraft strength, rather than updraft fraction, was found to predominantly control both clear and cloudy updraft mass fluxes. Cloud-base cloudiness strongly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux but showed negligible correlation with clear-air updraft mass flux. Clear-air downdraft mass flux exhibited a strong relationship with the ratio of surface buoyancy to inversion strength. Mesoscale analysis revealed that moist patches had greater cloudiness, updraft mass flux, and vertical velocity variance compared to dry patches. Additionally, mesoscale base-layer cloud fraction was highly and significantly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux in both dry and moist environments. Results presented herein have implications for cumulus parameterization development along with climatological and model evaluation studies conducted at the ENA site.

cumulus clouds↗

IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release Highlights Upcoming Changes IDAES will be switching to the new Pyomo solver interface in the next release. Whilst this will hopefully be a smooth transition for most users, there are a few important changes to be aware of. The new solver interface uses a different version of the IPOPT writer (“ipopt_v2”) and thus any custom configuration options you might have set for IPOPT will not carry over and will need to be reset. By default, the new Pyomo linear presolver will be activated with ipopt_v2. Whilst are working to identify any bugs in the presolver, it is possible that some edge cases will remain. IDAES will begin deploying a new set of scaling tools and APIs over the next few releases that make use of the new solver writers. The old scaling tools and APIs will remain for backward compatibility but will begin to be deprecated. New Models, Tools and Features New Intersphinx extension automatically linking Jupyter notebook examples to project documentation New end-to-end diagnostics example demonstrated on a real problem New complementarity formulation for VLE with cubic equations of state, backward compatibility for old formulation New solver interface with presolve (ipopt_v2) in support of upcoming changes to the initialization and APIs methods, with default set to ipopt to maintain backwards compatibility; this will deprecate once all examples have been updated New forecaster and parameterized bidder methods within grid integration library Updated surrogates API and examples to support Keras 3, with backwards compatibility for older formats such as TensorFlow SavedModel (TFSM) Updated costing base dictionary to include the 2023 cost year index value Updated ProcessBlock to include information on the constructing block class Updated Flowsheet Visualizer to allow visualize() method to return value and functions Bug Fixes Fixed bug in the Modular Property Framework that would cause errors when trying to use phase-based material balances with phase equilibria. Fixed bug in Modular Properties Framework that caused errors when initializing models with non-vapor-liquid phase equilibria. Fixed typos flagged by June update to crate-ci/typos and removed DMF-related exceptions Minor corrections of units of measurement handling in power plant waste/transport costing expressions, control volume material holdup expressions, and BTX property package parameters Fixed throwing >7500 numpy deprecation warnings by replacing scalar value assignment with element extraction and item iteration calls Testing and Robustness Migrated slow tests (>10s) to integration, impacting test coverage but also yielding a nearly 30% decrease in local test runtime Pinned pint to avoid issues with older supported Python versions Pinned codecov versions to avoid tokenless upload behavior with latest version Bumped extensions to version 3.4.2 to allow pointing to non-standard install location Deprecations and Removals Python 3.8 is no longer supported. The supported Python versions are 3.9 through 3.12 The Data Management Framework (DMF) is no longer supported. Importing idaes.core.dmf will cause a deprecation warning to be displayed until the next release The SOFC Keras surrogates have been removed. The current version of the SOFC surrogate model in the examples repository is a PySMO Kriging model.

AS↗

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Seasonal Variation of the Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height Using Machine Learning Approaches

As machine learning becomes more integrated into atmospheric science, XGBoost has gained popularity for its ability to assess the relative contributions of influencing factors in the atmospheric boundary layer height. To examine how these factors vary across seasons, a seasonal analysis is necessary. However, dividing data by season reduces the sample size, which can affect result reliability and complicate factor comparisons. To address these challenges, this study replaces default parameters with grid search optimization and incorporates cross-validation to mitigate dataset limitations. Using XGBoost with four years of data from the atmospheric radiation measurement (ARM) (Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, cross-validation stabilizes correlation coefficient fluctuations from 0.3 to within 0.1. With optimized parameters, the R value can reach 0.81. Analysis of the C1 site reveals that the relative importance of different factors changes across seasons. Lower tropospheric stability (LTS, ~0.53) is the dominant factor at C1 throughout the year. However, during DJF, latent heat flux (LHF, 0.44) surpasses LTS (0.22). In SON, LTS (0.58) becomes more influential than LHF (0.18). Further comparisons among the four long-term SGP sites (C1, E32, E37, and E39) show seasonal variations in relative importance. Notably, during JJA, the differences in the relative importance of the three factors across all sites are lower than in other seasons. This suggests that boundary layer development in the summer is not dominated by a single factor, reflecting a more intricate process likely influenced by seasonal conditions such as enhanced convective activity, higher temperatures, and humidity, which collectively contribute to a balanced distribution of parameter impacts. Furthermore, the relative importance of LTS gradually increases from morning to noon, indicating that LTS becomes more significant as the boundary layer approaches its maximum height. Consequently, the LTS in the early morning in autumn exhibits greater relative importance compared to other seasons. This reflects a faster development of the mixing layer height (MLH) in autumn, suggesting that it is easier to retrieve the MLH from the previous day during this period. The findings enhance understanding of boundary layer evolution and contribute to improved boundary layer parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping causal patterns in crystalline solids

The evolution of the atomic structures of the combinatorial library of Sm-substituted thin film BiFeO 3 along the phase transition boundary from the ferroelectric rhombohedral phase to the non-ferroelectric orthorhombic phase is explored using scanning transmission electron microscopy. Localized properties, including polarization, lattice parameter, and chemical composition, are parameterized from atomic-scale imaging, and their causal relationships are reconstructed using a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model. This approach is further extended to explore the spatial variability of the causal coupling using the sliding window transform method, which revealed that new causal relationships emerged at both the expected locations, such as domain walls and interfaces, and at additional regions forming clusters in the vicinity of the walls or spatially distributed features. While the exact physical origins of these relationships are unclear, they likely represent nanophase-separated regions in the morphotropic phase boundaries. Overall, we posit that an in-depth understanding of complex disordered materials away from thermodynamic equilibrium necessitates understanding not only the generative processes that can lead to observed microscopic states but also the causal links between multiple interacting subsystems.

Causal inference↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗