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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Fatigue Analysis of Notched Laminates: A Time-Efficient Macro-Mechanical Approach

A coupled transversely isotropic deformation and damage fatigue model is implemented within the finite element method and was utilized along with a static progressive damage model to predict the fatigue life, stiffness degradation as a function of number of cycles, and post-fatigue tension and compression response of notched, multidirectional laminates. Initially, the material parameters for the fatigue model were obtained utilizing micromechanics simulations and the provided [0], [90] and [plus or minus 45] experimental composite laminate S-N (stress-cycle) data. Within the fatigue damage model, the transverse and shear properties of the plies were degraded with an isotropic scalar damage variable. The damage in the longitudinal (fiber) ply direction was suppressed, and only the strength of the fiber was degraded as a function of fatigue cycles. A maximum strain criterion was used to capture the failure in each element, and once this criterion was satisfied, the longitudinal stiffness of the element was decreased by a factor of 10 (sup 4). The resulting, degraded properties were then used to calculate the new stress state. This procedure was repeated until final failure of the composite laminate was achieved or a specified number of cycles reached. For post-fatigue tension and compression behavior, four internal state variables were used to control the damage and failure. The predictive capability of the above-mentioned approach was assessed by performing blind predictions of the notched multidirectional IM7/977-3 composite laminates response under fatigue and post-fatigue tensile and compressive loading, followed by a recalibration phase. Although three different multidirectional laminates were analyzed in the course of this study, only detailed results (i.e., stiffness degradation and post-fatigue stress-train curves as well as damage evolution states for a single laminate ([30/60/90/minus 30/minus 60] (sub 2s)) are discussed in detail here.

Composite Fatigue analysis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Cycle Predictions

Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

Pesnell, William Dean↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of SiCSiC Composites in Support of Environmental Degradation Modeling

SiCSiC (silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide) composites are candidate materials for various turbine engine applications because of their high specific strength and good creep and oxidation resistance at elevated temperatures. This study was performed to characterize the microstructure of a melt infiltrated (MI) SiCSiC, and to examine environmental degradation mechanisms occurring in precracked MI SiCSiC CMC specimens under tensile stresses of 30 ksi or less at 815C in dry air or argon. In addition, the oxidation of the BN interface was characterized at815C, and crack opening displacement as a function of stress measurements were made. This material characterization is being performed to obtain data to support NASA GRC modeling of SiCSiC environmental degradation. The comparison of experimentally-observed phenomena with model predictions can lead to improved understanding of material degradation mechanisms.

SiC/SiC composites↗
NASA NTRS1986

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

The objectives of this program are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, and then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The program is divided into two phases, each consisting of several tasks. The work in Phase 1 is aimed at identifying the relative importance of the various failure modes, and developing and verifying life prediction model(s) for the predominant model for a thermal barrier coating system. Two possible predominant failure mechanisms being evaluated are bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep. The work in Phase 2 will develop design-capable, causal, life prediction models for thermomechanical and thermochemical failure modes, and for the exceptional conditions of foreign object damage and erosion.

Pilsner, B. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗
NASA NTRS1978

Statistical fatigue of graphite/epoxy angle-ply laminates in shear

A three-parameter fatigue and residual strength degradation model has been proposed to predict statistically the fatigue behavior of composite laminae under axial shear loadings. The fatigue behavior includes the fatigue life and the fatigue damage expressed in terms of the residual strength degradation. An experimental test program using graphite/epoxy /+ or - 45 deg/2s laminates has been conducted to generate statistically meaningful data in order to examine the validity of the theoretical model. It is shown that the correlation between the theoretical predictions and the test results on the statistical distributions of the fatigue life and the residual strength is excellent. Test results on the shear modulus degradation are also presented and discussed in detail in order to provide insight for the establishment of a shear modulus degradation model.

Yang, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multivariate Methods for Prediction of Geologic Sample Composition with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) uses pulses of laser light to ablate a material from the surface of a sample and produce an expanding plasma. The optical emission from the plasma produces a spectrum which can be used to classify target materials and estimate their composition. The ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will use LIBS to rapidly analyze targets remotely, allowing more resource- and time-intensive in-situ analyses to be reserved for targets of particular interest. ChemCam will also be used to analyze samples that are not reachable by the rover's in-situ instruments. Due to these tactical and scientific roles, it is important that ChemCam-derived sample compositions are as accurate as possible. We have compared the results of partial least squares (PLS), multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs), and cascade correlation (CC) ANNs to determine which technique yields better estimates of quantitative element abundances in rock and mineral samples. The number of hidden nodes in the MLP ANNs was optimized using a genetic algorithm. The influence of two data preprocessing techniques were also investigated: genetic algorithm feature selection and averaging the spectra for each training sample prior to training the PLS and ANN algorithms. We used a ChemCam-like laboratory stand-off LIBS system to collect spectra of 30 pressed powder geostandards and a diverse suite of 196 geologic slab samples of known bulk composition. We tested the performance of PLS and ANNs on a subset of these samples, choosing to focus on silicate rocks and minerals with a loss on ignition of less than 2 percent. This resulted in a set of 22 pressed powder geostandards and 80 geologic samples. Four of the geostandards were used as a validation set and 18 were used as the training set for the algorithms. We found that PLS typically resulted in the lowest average absolute error in its predictions, but that the optimized MLP ANN and the CC ANN often gave results comparable to PLS. Averaging the spectra for each training sample and/or using feature selection to choose a small subset of wavelengths to use for predictions gave mixed results, with degraded performance in some cases and similar or slightly improved performance in other cases. However, training time was significantly reduced for both PLS and ANN methods by implementing feature selection, making this a potentially appealing method for initial, rapid-turn-around analyses necessary for Chemcam's tactical role on MSL. Choice of training samples has a strong influence on the accuracy of predictions. We are currently investigating the use of clustering algorithms (e.g. k-means, neural gas, etc.) to identify training sets that are spectrally similar to the unknown samples that are being predicted, and therefore result in improved predictions

Morris, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Optimization for Lithium-Ion Battery Systems

Health management of lithium-ion battery systems presents a host of challenges due to their complex physics, large numbers of components, and a wide variety of degradation behaviors across different battery types. Dr. Paul Gasper will present on research from the Electrochemical Energy Storage Group on Lithium-ion battery diagnostics, prognostics, and optimization. Diagnostics research, including state-estimation via machine-learning from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and DC pulses as well as continuous state-estimation via Kalman filters, will highlight the ongoing challenges for accurately measuring the state of batteries without performing time-consuming characterization tests. NLR's industry-recognized battery prognostics work, which predicts real-world battery degradation by identifying degradation rate models from accelerated aging data using statistical modeling and machine-learning, will be used to demonstrate the critical impact of battery controls, thermal management, and operating strategy on durability and lifetime. Finally, the use of prognostic models for financial or lifetime optimization will be discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1987

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

The objectives of this research were to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating (TBC) system, and then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The TBC system consists of a low pressure plasma sprayed (LPPS) bond coat layer of Ni-22Cr-10Al-O.3Y, an air plasma sprayed (APS) yttria partially stabilized zirconia (ZrO sub 2-8Y sub 2 O sub 3) top coat on a conventionally cast Rene 80 (Ni base) substrate. Thermal cycle testing of TBCs was employed to evaluate the effect of coating edges, bond coat oxidation, bond coat creep, top coat thickness, and bond coat thickness.

Pilsner, B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Meteorological Data to Evaluate Worldwide PV Degradation Rates

Here we automate the process to enable the creation of world maps for specific PV durability metrics. The end goal is to create a tool for the creation of world maps predicting the sensitivity of modules to degradation to inform the development and utilization of module testing standards and to provide information to module designers. TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) Data was aggregated from sites around the world to render insight into factors contributing to the degradation of solar modules. The focus of aggregating data was to create a single dataset to work with utilizing Solar Irradiance values combined with Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed and Dew-Point Temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of various approximations on predicted progressive failure in plain weave composites

Three-dimensional finite element analysis was used to simulate progressive failure of a plain weave composite subjected to in-plane extension. The loading was parallel to one of the tow directions. The effects of various characteristics of the finite element model on predicted behavior were examined. The predicted behavior was found to be sensitive to quadrature order, mesh refinement, and the material degradation model. Also the sensitivity of the predictions to the tow waviness was studied. The predicted strength decreased considerably with increased waviness. More numerical studies and comparisons with experimental data are needed to establish reliable guidelines for accurate progressive failure prediction.

Whitcomb, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Materials Research Pathway Technical Program Plan

The Materials Research (MR) Pathway within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is charged with performing the research and development (R&D) to develop the scientific basis for understanding and predicting long-term environmental degradation behavior of materials in nuclear reactors. Furthermore, it is essential to use the mechanistic understanding of degradation phenomena in materials to develop mitigation, repair, and new material alternatives for existing components. The work will provide data and methods to assess performance of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) essential to safe and sustained reactor operations. The R&D products developed from the LWRS Program will be used by utilities, industry groups, and regulators to inform operational and regulatory requirements for materials in reactor SSCs subjected to long-term operation conditions, providing key input to both regulators and industry. The intent of this research is to help in reducing the operating costs, which may be in the form of offset maintenance costs due to better predictive models for component lifetimes, improved analysis of materials through nondestructive evaluation, reduced costs for repairs, or extended performance of plants through the selection of improved replacement materials. To best achieve this, industry experience and guidance are important as is their role in coordinated or collaborative research projects. The objectives of this report are to describe the motivation and organization of the MR Pathway within the LWRS Program, provide details on the individual research tasks within the MR Pathway, describe the outcomes and deliverables of the MR Pathway, including recent technical highlights and progress, and list the requirements for performing the research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗