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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Harsh Environments, At-Risk Microgrid Components, and Hardening Technologies (Report Version 0.1)

Microgrid implementation can help improve electrical service, reliability, and resilience for localized communities. However, they may be susceptible to damage from natural disasters and extreme weather events, which often coincide with times of greater community dependence on microgrids due to likely increased vulnerability of equipment on the main grid. Microgrid equipment can be protected against these hazards through various hardening techniques. The selection of hardening mitigations may depend on the actual risk of the hazard in the specific location and for the specific type of system, as well as cost and feasibility factors. This report summarizes a framework that can be used to characterize risk to a microgrid system from a list of natural hazards enumerated by FEMA. We also describe hardening techniques and mitigations that can be used for specific energy generation, storage, loads, and power delivery elements within a microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Makah Tribe Strategic Energy Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) connects remote and island communities, regional partners, and the DOE national laboratories to support communities as they seek to build resilience in their energy systems. The Makah Tribe faces several energy challenges, including frequent power outages and the potential for an extended outage due to an earthquake or tsunami. The Tribe joined ETIPP in 2022 to address those challenges, seeking to build energy resilience and sovereignty in the community. The Makah Tribe, Spark Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a strategic energy plan as part of the second cohort of ETIPP communities. The long-term energy vision of the Makah Tribe includes increasing energy efficiency in the community, improving energy management capacity, and developing the renewable energy generation and storage sufficient to independently power the Reservation for one year. Additionally, the ETIPP team worked with Makah leadership, staff, and community members to identify a set of community priorities, values, and goals to guide energy development as the Tribe takes the incremental steps toward their vision for energy sovereignty. Those energy values include ecosystem-based management, energy sovereignty and project ownership, workforce development and capacity, economic opportunity, community wellbeing and priorities, and emergency disaster resilience. To understand what would be needed for a year for energy independence, the PNNL team conducted an assessment to determine the current energy usage of the Tribe and also modeled several scenarios for future energy use. Using the energy usage values, the team estimated how two types of renewable energy technology, specifically locally deployed solar and small-scale wind, could contribute towards the energy independence goal. The energy baseline and resource assessment produced the following key findings:

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Issues in Building Energy Codes

This report, prepared for the International Energy Agency’s Building Energy Codes Working Group (BECWG, part of the IEA Energy in Buildings and Communities Technical Collaboration Programme, or IEA EBC), focuses on the application of building energy codes to improve the ability of buildings to provide a minimum healthy level of thermal comfort and function during extreme events. It reviews the relationship of building energy codes to the other building resilience policies and strategies, such as other building life/safety codes, community planning or zoning to discourage rebuilding in areas most prone to climate disasters, and other resilience planning strategies. The report provides an overview of how different jurisdictions address resilience issues in building energy codes in countries that are part of the IEA EBC Building Energy Codes Working Group.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final Prototype Microreactor Transportation Safety Program

This report fulfills the fiscal year 2025 M2 Milestone M2AT-25PN0802042, Final Microreactor Transportation Safety Program Planning Framework. Microreactors are compact reactors capable of producing less than 50 megawatts of electrical energy. Typically, these reactors are factory-fabricated and designed to be easily transportable by truck, rail, vessel, or air. Microreactor designs often assume that the unit can be transported containing either unirradiated or irradiated fuel. Interest in microreactors is driven by several factors, including the need to generate power at remote locations, military installations, and facilities such as data centers, and in areas recovering from natural disasters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Resilience Options for the Koolauloa Community Resilience Hub – Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project, Cohort 2: Summary of Findings and Assessment

Hui o Hau‘ula (HoH) is a community organization dedicated to the well-being of the population of the Ko‘olauloa district on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. In response to growing concerns about challenges related to extreme weather events or natural disasters, HoH formulated the concept of the Ko‘olauloa Community Resilience Hub, or KCRH. The KCRH facility would serve as a focal point for the community during normal conditions, while also providing essential services and acting as a safe space during emergencies, natural or man-made. The concept of the KCRH was initially developed in partnership with the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, +Lab Architects, and the City and County of Honolulu. In the fall of 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy, under the Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project Program (ETIPP), provided support to the KCRH project, in the form of technical assistance (TA) to be provided by its National Laboratory complex. In this case, the core TA was provided by Sandia National Laboratories, and it was directed to providing options for designing an energy system based at the KCRH that could support critical loads in the event of a 30- day grid outage. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provided communications and logistics support in the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Halau Uma: Kahikinui Community Cultural, Educational, and Resilience Center Preliminary Design Technical Assistance Summary Report

The Kahikinui Homestead Community in Maui faces energy resilience challenges due to its remote, off-grid location. This report summarizes preliminary technical assistance to design a microgrid for six modular homes using solar PV, wind, and battery storage. Results indicate that a hybrid PV and battery system, supplemented by small wind turbines, offers a cost-effective, resilient solution supporting energy independence and disaster preparedness.

Quiroz, Jimmy Edward [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kauhale 'O Kipapa: Kahikinui Community Cultural, Educational, and Resilience Center Preliminary Design Technical Assistance Summary Report

The Kahikinui Homestead Community in Maui faces energy resilience challenges due to its remote, off-grid location. This report summarizes preliminary technical assistance to design a microgrid for six modular homes using solar PV, wind, and battery storage. Findings show hybrid PV and battery systems, supplemented by small wind turbines, offer cost-effective, resilient solutions. This work supports enhanced energy independence and disaster preparedness for the community.

Quiroz, Jimmy Edward [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Decentralized Secondary Control Scheme for Inverter-based Power Networks

Inverter-dominated microgrids are quickly becoming a key building block of future power systems. They rely on centralized controllers that can provide reliability and resiliency in extreme events. Nonetheless, communication failures due to cyber-physical attacks or natural disasters can make autonomous operation of islanded microgrids challenging. This paper examines a unified decentralized secondary control scheme that is robust to inverter clock synchronization errors and can be seamlessly applied to grid-following or grid-forming control architectures. The proposed scheme overcomes the well-known stability problem that arises from parallel operation of local integral controllers. Theoretical guarantees for stability are provided along with criteria to appropriately tune the secondary control gains to achieve good frequency regulation performance while ensuring fair power sharing. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated through simulations on a 5-bus microgrid with four grid-forming inverters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forming Interphase Microgrids in Distribution Systems Using Cooperative Inverters

Interphase-microgrids formed by three islanded single-phase feeders in distribution systems are proposed in this paper. Loss of utility caused by natural and human-made disasters may isolate each residential subdivision from the utility. In this case, the household loads are supplied by distributed generation (DG) units which may not be enough to meet the load demand. This can lead to deviations in voltage and frequency, and the deviations may vary for each phase. The proposed solution is to form an interphase-microgrid by seamlessly interconnecting the islanded single-phase feeders. This interphase-microgrid can effectively balance the load demands and DG generation in distribution systems after losing the utility supply. This paper presents different case studies to demonstrate the viability of forming interphase-microgrids for residential distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Metal Stresses in Arabidopsis thaliana Using Hyperspectral Reflectance Imaging

Industrial accidents, such as the Fukushima and Chernobyl disasters, release harmful chemicals into the environment, covering large geographical areas. Natural flora may serve as biological sensors for detecting metal contamination, such as cesium. Spectral detection of plant stresses typically employs a few select wavelengths and often cannot distinguish between different stress phenotypes. In this study, we apply hyperspectral reflectance imaging in the visible and near-infrared along with multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis to identify unique spectral signatures of three stresses in Arabidopsis thaliana : salt, copper, and cesium. While all stress conditions result in common stress physiology, hyperspectral reflectance imaging and MCR analysis produced unique spectral signatures that enabled classification of each stress. As the level of potassium was previously shown to affect cesium stress in plants, the response of A. thaliana to cesium stress under variable levels of potassium was also investigated. Increased levels of potassium reduced the spectral response of A. thaliana to cesium and prevented changes to chloroplast cellular organization. While metal stress mechanisms may vary under different environmental conditions, this study demonstrates that hyperspectral reflectance imaging with MCR analysis can distinguish metal stress phenotypes, providing the potential to detect metal contamination across large geographical areas.

multivariate curve resolution↗
DOE OSTI2023

The rapid change in mental health among college students after introduction of on-campus quarantine during the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown

Objectives Among the various impacts of disasters in terms of emotions, quarantine has been proven to result in significant increases in mental health problems. Studies of psychological resilience during outbreaks of epidemics tend to focus on long-term social quarantine. In contrast, insufficient studies have been conducted examining how rapidly negative mental health outcomes occur and how these outcomes change over time. We evaluated the time course of psychological resilience (over three different phases of quarantine) among students at Shanghai Jiao Tong University to investigate the influence of unexpected changes on college students. Methods An online survey was conducted from 5 to 7 April 2022. A structured online questionnaire was administered using a retrospective cohort trial design. Before 9 March (Period 1), individuals engaged in their usual activities without restrictions. From 9 to 23 March (Period 2), the majority of students were asked to remain in their dormitories on campus. From 24 March to early April (Period 3), restrictions were relaxed, and students were gradually allowed to participate in essential activities on campus. We quantified dynamic changes in the severity of students’ depressive symptoms over the course of these three periods. The survey consisted of five sets of self-reported questions: demographic information, lifestyle/activity restrictions, a brief mental health history, COVID-19-related background, and the Beck Depression Inventory, second edition. Results A total of 274 college students aged 18–42 years (mean = 22.34; SE = 0.24) participated in the study (58.39% undergraduate students, 41.61% graduate students; 40.51% male, 59.49% female). The proportion of students with depressive symptoms was 9.1% in Period 1, 36.1% in Period 2, and 34.67% in Period 3. Depressive symptoms increased notably with the introduction of the quarantine in Periods 2 and 3. Lower satisfaction with the food supplied and a longer duration of physical exercise per day were found to be positively associated with changes in depression severity in Periods 2 and 3. Quarantine-related psychological distress was more evident in students who were in a romantic relationship than in students who were single. Conclusion Depressive symptoms in university students rapidly increased after 2 weeks of quarantine and no perceptible reversal was observed over time. Concerning students in a relationship, ways to take physical exercise and to relax should be provided and the food supplied should be improved when young people are quarantined.

Ma, Dongni↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Siting of EV Fleet Charging Station Considering EV Mobility and Microgrid Formation for Enhanced Grid Resilience

Coordinating infrastructure planning for transportation and the power grid is essential for enhanced reliability and resilience during operation and disaster management. This paper presents a two-stage stochastic model to optimize the location of electric vehicle fleet charging stations (FEVCSs) to enhance the resilience of a distribution network. The first stage of this model deals with the decision to place an FEVCS at the most favorable and optimized location, whereas the second stage aims to minimize the weighted sum of the value of lost load in multiple potential scenarios with different faults. Indeed, the second stage is a joint grid restoration scheme with network reconfiguration and microgrid formation using available distributed generators and fleet electric vehicles. The proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE-33 node distribution network and a four-node transportation network. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Based on Radar Echo Using an Improved Self-Attention PredRNN Deep Learning Model

Accurate short-term precipitation forecast is extremely important for urban flood warning and natural disaster prevention. In this paper, we present an innovative deep learning model named ISA-PredRNN (improved self-attention PredRNN) for precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes on the basis of the advanced PredRNN-V2. We introduce the self-attention mechanism and the long-term memory state into the model and design a new set of gating mechanisms. To better capture different intensities of precipitation, the loss function with weights was designed. We further train the model using a combination of reverse scheduled sampling and scheduled sampling to learn the long-term dynamics from the radar echo sequences. Experimental results show that the new model (ISA-PredRNN) can effectively extract the spatiotemporal features of radar echo maps and obtain radar echo prediction results with a small gap from the ground truths. From the comparison with the other six models, the new ISA-PredRNN model has the most accurate prediction results with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.7001, 0.5812 and 0.3052 under the radar echo thresholds of 10 dBZ, 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ, respectively.

Wu, Dali (ORCID:0000000231177074)↗
DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Resilient Power and Energy Systems: Progress, Prospects, and Future Avenues

In recent years, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has garnered substantial attention in the context of enhancing resilience in power and energy systems. Resilience, characterized by the ability to withstand, absorb, and quickly recover from natural disasters and human-induced disruptions, has become paramount in ensuring the stability and dependability of critical infrastructure. This comprehensive review delves into the latest advancements and applications of DRL in enhancing the resilience of power and energy systems, highlighting significant contributions and key insights. The exploration commences with a concise elucidation of the fundamental principles of DRL, highlighting the intricate interplay among reinforcement learning (RL), deep learning, and the emergence of DRL. Furthermore, it categorizes and describes various DRL algorithms, laying a robust foundation for comprehending the applicability of DRL. The linkage between DRL and power system resilience is forged through a systematic classification of DRL applications into five pivotal dimensions: dynamic response, recovery and restoration, energy management and control, communications and cybersecurity, and resilience planning and metrics development. This structured categorization facilitates a methodical exploration of how DRL methodologies can effectively tackle critical challenges within the domain of power and energy system resilience. The review meticulously examines the inherent challenges and limitations entailed in integrating DRL into power and energy system resilience, shedding light on practical challenges and potential pitfalls. Additionally, it offers insights into promising avenues for future research, with the aim of inspiring innovative solutions and further progress in this vital domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗