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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Brillouin Sensing with PCA, and PCA-Based Neural Networks for Efficient Temperature Monitoring

This work explores peak estimation techniques in Brillouin Optical Time Domain Analysis (BOTDA), emphasizing both accuracy and efficiency. Euclidean distance measurement method is applied to principal components derived from Brillouin Gain Spectrum data. It offers a major speed advantage being 180 170 times faster than traditional curve fitting methods such as Lorentzian curve fitting, while maintaining similar accuracy. Additionally, a PCA- based neural network model shows significant reduction of peak estimation time compared to Lorentzian fitting. Results show Brillouin frequency shift errors lie under 0.75 MHz in both Euclidean distance-based and neural network-based methods, both of which utilize PCA components. For large data sets and long length fibers, PCA- assisted neural network for peak estimation would be an efficient solution.

Distributed optical fiber sensing↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Natural Products Magnetic Resonance Database (NP-MRD) for 2025

The Natural Products Magnetic Resonance Database or NP-MRD (https://np-mrd.org) is a comprehensive, freely accessible, web-based resource for the deposition, distribution, extraction and retrieval of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data on natural products. The NP-MRD was initially established to support compound de-replication and data dissemination for the natural products community. However, that community has now grown to include many users from the metabolomics, microbiomics, foodomics and nutrition science fields. Indeed, since its launch in 2021, the NP-MRD has expanded enormously in size, scope and popularity. The current version of NP-MRD now contains nearly 7X more compounds (281,859 vs. 40,908) and 7X more NMR spectra (5.1 million vs. 817,000) than the first release. More specifically, an additional 4.6 million predicted spectra and another 11,000 spectra simulated from experimental chemical shifts were deposited into the database. Likewise, the number of NMR raw spectral data depositions has grown from a 165 spectra per year to more than 10,000 per year. As a result of this expansion, the number of monthly webpage views has grown from 55 to 20,000 and the number of monthly visitors has increased from 7 to 2500. To address this growth and to better support the expanding needs of its diverse community of users, many additional improvements to the NP-MRD have been made. These include significant enhancements to the data submission process, important improvements to the visualization and display of NMR spectra, notable updates to the database’s spectral search utilities and useful additions to support better NMR spectral analysis/prediction. Significant efforts have also been undertaken to remediate and update many of NP-MRD’s database entries. This manuscript describes these database improvements and expansion efforts, along with how they have been implemented and what future upgrades to the NP-MRD are planned.

Artifical Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dual-precipitates enhance fatigue resistance in an additively manufactured high-entropy alloy

To accomplish the intense desire of high-strength materials for enhanced energy-efficiency, recent research applies a combined strategy of additive-manufacturing and precipitation-strengthening in high entropy alloys. In a context, Al 0.2 Co 1.5 CrFeNi 1.5 Ti 0.3 nanoprecipitation-strengthened system was developed, demonstrating very convincing strength and toughness. Moreover, additive-manufacturing facilitated additional strength by well-decorated cell-boundaries with blocky L2 1 precipitates and homogeneously distributed L1 2 precipitates. However, fatigue research of this alloy remained unexplored despite being the main precursor for structural applications. In this study low-cycle fatigue behavior of this alloy in both as-built and precipitation-strengthened (aged) conditions has been explored, combined with in-situ neutron diffraction investigation. Findings revealed a substantial cyclic-stress profile and a notable fatigue-life below ±0.50% strain-amplitude, exceeding 10 5 cycles at ±0.30% strain-amplitude. These demonstrate the potential to carry higher payloads with marked engineering-reliability. Residual-stress estimation revealed strain-compatibility between the matrix and L1 2 precipitate, indicating a crack-initiation immune interface. A comparative examination of dislocation character revealed shifting towards pure edge-character in aged alloy indicates precipitates promoted planar-slip during deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗
DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Innovating Distributed Embedded Energy Prize (InDEEP): A Lessons Learned Report

The U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) launched the Innovating Distributed Embedded Energy Prize (InDEEP) in March 2023 to accelerate innovation in Distributed Embedded Energy Conversion Technologies (DEEC-Tec) for ocean wave energy. Administered by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) with technical support from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), InDEEP focused on the development of small, distributed, and embeddable energy converters (DEECs) and their integration into scalable DEEC-Tec metamaterials for marine renewable energy applications. Spanning three phases over two years, InDEEP awarded approximately $2.3 million to teams from academia, industry, and startups. Phase I emphasized conceptual design. Phase II moved into the prototyping of individual DEECs. Phase III required integration into functional DEEC-Tec metamaterial prototypes. Across 60 submissions, teams explored a wide range of energy conversion mechanisms - including piezoelectric, variable-capacitance, ionic, and inductive methods. Note, the prize did not include the design nor demonstration of ocean wave energy conversion systems. Rather, the prize only required participants to design and demonstrate individual DEECs and corresponding DEEC-Tec metamaterials. This prize utilized a mix of novel and proven techniques to attract participants from outside marine energy, including an engagement leaderboard, robust recruitment, technical expert mentorship, and a suite of technical trainings. Key insights from the competition emphasized that DEEC-Tec metamaterials must be intentionally designed to produce beneficial emergent behaviors - advantages that go beyond simply combining multiple DEEC units. Top-performing teams showed that thoughtful design of system architecture, coordinated deformation, and systems adaptabilities could unlock meaningful performance gains both at the DEEC system level and DEEC-Tec metamaterial system level. A critical realization was that many DEEC-Tec metamaterials could benefit from being designed to accept lower-frequency energy inputs and shift those into higher-frequencies per each DEEC making up the respective DEEC-Tec metamaterial. Other important takeaways included the need for rigorous and quantitative performance testing, effective integration of power conditioning electronics, and the pivotal role of material science in enabling innovative, adaptive DEEC-Tec-based energy conversion designs. InDEEP also helped establish a growing DEEC-Tec community of practitioners, attracting participants from beyond traditional marine energy sectors. Through a strong support infrastructure, InDEEP fostered early-stage innovation and laid a foundation for future DEEC-Tec-based ocean wave energy conversion solutions - positioning DEEC-Tec as a promising pathway toward scalable, resilient ocean wave energy conversion. Through focused R&D of individual DEECs and their integration into DEEC-Tec metamaterials, alongside a growing, multidisciplinary community catalyzed by InDEEP, there is a strong opportunity to drive a disruptive shift in ocean wave energy conversion design and development. This convergence of novel architectures, emergent behaviors, and collaborative innovation positions DEEC-Tec as a transformative approach, moving the field from rigid, centralized energy conversion-based designs to resilient, modular systems highly adaptable for real-world ocean wave energy conversion applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Carotenoid Energy Levels on the Exciton Dynamics and Singlet–Triplet Annihilation in Isolated Bacterial Light-Harvesting 2 Complexes

The light-harvesting 2 (LH2) complex of purple phototrophic bacteria plays a critical role in absorbing solar energy and distributing the excitation energy. Exciton dynamics within LH2 complexes are controlled by the structural arrangement and energy levels of the bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) and carotenoid (Car) pigments. However, there is still debate over the competing light-harvesting versus energy-dissipation pathways. In this work, we compared five variants of the LH2 complex from genetically modified strains of Rhodobacter sphaeroides, all containing the same BChls but different Cars with increasing conjugation: zeta-carotene (N = 7; LH2 Zeta ), neurosporene (N = 9; LH2 Neu ), spheroidene (N = 10; LH2 Spher ), lycopene (N = 11; LH2 Lyco ), and spirilloxanthin (N = 13; LH2 Spir ). Absorption measurements confirmed that the Car excited-state energy decreased with increasing conjugation. Similarly, fluorescence spectra showed that the B850 BChl emission peak had an increasing red shift from LH2 Zeta →(LH2 Neu /LH2 Spher )→LH2 Lyco →LH2 Spir . In contrast, time-resolved fluorescence and ultrafast transient absorption (fs-TA) revealed similar excited-state lifetimes (∼1 ns) for all complexes except LH2 Spir (∼0.7 ns). From fs-TA analysis, an additional ∼7 ps nonradiative dissipation step from B850 BChl was observed for LH2 Zeta . Further, singlet− singlet and singlet−triplet annihilation studies showed a ∼50% average fluorescence lifetime reduction in LH2Zeta at high laser power and high repetition rate, compared to ∼10−15% reductions in LH2 Neu /LH2 Spher /LH2 Lyco and minimal lifetime change in LH2 Spir . In LH2 Zeta , the fastest decay component (<50 ps) became prominent at high repetition rates, consistent with strong singlet−triplet annihilation. Nanosecond TA measurements revealed long-lived (>40 μs) BChl triplet states in LH2 Zeta and signs of damage caused by singlet oxygen, whereas other LH2s showed faster triplet quenching (∼18 ns) by Cars. These findings highlight a key design principle of LH2 complexes: the Car triplet energy must be significantly lower than the BChl triplet energy to efficiently quench BChl triplets that otherwise act as potent “trap states,” causing exciton annihilation in laser-based experiments or photodamage in native membranes.

Absorption↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural Evolution of Mixed-Addenda Keggin Polyoxometalate Anions with Atom-by-Atom Substitution

Polyoxometalates (POMs) are molecular metal oxides with distinctive electronic properties that make them promising materials for applications in energy, sensors, and memory devices. One of the most promising methods of tuning the stability, photochromic, redox, and electron-spin properties of POMs is through the substitution of the metal “addenda” atoms that, along with oxygen, constitute their cage-like structures. Because traditional synthesis methods typically produce a distribution of POMs, the isolation and characterization of multimetallic POMs with predetermined stoichiometry remains challenging. The presence of multiple energetically accessible isomers further complicates the experimental characterization and theoretical modeling of multimetallic POMs. Herein, we leverage the distinguishing mass-selection capabilities of ion soft landing to prepare stoichiometrically selected Keggin PMo x W 12-x O 40 3- (x = 0 – 6, 8, 10, and 12) POMs on self-assembled monolayer surfaces free of the solvent molecules and counterions that often confound characterization of complex species at interfaces. The structures of the supported POMs are characterized with atom-by-atom precision using in situ infrared (IR) reflection absorption spectroscopy complemented by detailed density functional theory calculations. Our joint experimental and theoretical results reveal an almost linear shift in the positions of the IR bands towards lower wavenumbers with an increase in the number of lighter molybdenum atoms compared to heavier W atoms in PMoxW 12-x O 40 3- . The theoretical calculations also indicate that numerous isomeric structures may be populated at the experimental conditions and, consequently, contribute to the overall IR spectra. In conclusion, our findings indicate that in addition to the number of substituted addenda atoms and the presence of multiple isomeric structures, interactions with the surface play an important role in determining the IR spectra and structure of supported bimetallic POMs.

Prabhakaran, Venkateshkumar [Pacific Northwest Nat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with the flat wall of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have performed a proof-of-concept experiment of flow sensing with the transducer in liquid sodium at 340°C in impinging liquid jet geometry. The transducer remained in liquid sodium for 70 days. After removal, no structural damage was observed, and the expected transducer response was verified in a water test. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance. Since a yellowish residue was observed on the transducer surface after 70 days of immersion in liquid sodium, we have investigated possible evidence of corrosion. Chromium depletion is a typical indicator of the corrosion process in stainless steel. Scraping off a residue from the transducer and performing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive analysis (EDS) did not find any chromium in the residue. Approximately 60% of the residue consisted of copper, which can be attributed to contamination of sodium due to powder residue from machining of copper and brass components of the transducer.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous Observation of Ion-scale Wave Packets with Opposite Polarizations and Their Implications on the Generation Region in the Inner Heliosphere

This paper reports a dispersion analysis of two wave packets simultaneously observed near the local proton gyrofrequency by the Parker Solar Probe. The observed wave event exhibits clear two-banded wave packets both propagating along the magnetic field, characterized by left-handed (L-mode) and right-handed (R-mode) polarizations simultaneously. By incorporating the Doppler shift effect into a linear dispersion analysis, we find two possible scenarios that explain these simultaneous opposite polarizations: (1) Two inherently L-mode waves in the plasma frame, propagate parallel and antiparallel to the solar wind velocity, with similar wave frequencies and wave numbers. The polarization of the antiparallel propagating wave reverses as it moves sunward in the plasma frame while still comoving with the solar wind in the stationary frame. This reversal manifests the polarization of the wave as an R-mode in the spacecraft frame. (2) Simultaneous L-mode and R-mode waves propagate parallel to the solar wind velocity, with different wave frequencies and wave numbers. Concurrent proton observations during the wave event reveal a dominant anisotropic ($T$⟂/$T$ ∥ > 1) core distribution with a drifting beam population. Estimation of the linear growth rate for both L-mode and R-mode waves suggests that both scenarios are plausible, indicating that the observation is near the wave-generation region. We explore the potential impact of these simultaneous waves on solar wind heating and scattering effects, hypothesizing that such waves might enhance efficiency compared to waves with a single wave packet, contingent upon the statistical significance of such waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling-Based Design and Optimization of a Gradient Composite Transition Joint

An innovative additively manufactured gradient composite transition joint (AM-GCTJ) has been designed to join dissimilar metals, to address the pressing issue of premature failure observed in conventional dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) when subjected to increased cyclic operating conditions of fossil fuel power plants. The transition design, guided by computational modeling, developed a gradient composite material distribution, facilitating a smooth transition in material volume fraction and physical properties between different alloys. This innovative design seeks to alleviate structural challenges arising from distinct material properties, including high thermal stress and potential cracking issues resulting from the thermal expansion mismatch typically observed in conventional DMWs. In this study, we investigated the creep properties of transition joints comprising Grade 91 steel and 304 stainless steel through a combination of simulations and creep testing experiments. The implementation of a gradient composite design in the plate transition joint resulted in a significant enhancement of creep resistance when compared to the baseline conventional DMW. For instance, the creep rupture life of the transition joint was improved by > 400% in a wide range of temperature and stress testing conditions. Meanwhile, the failure location shifted to the base material of Grade 91 steel. Such enhancement can be primarily attributed to the strong mechanical constraint facilitated by the gradient composite design, which effectively reduced the stresses on the less creep-resistant alloy in the transition zone. Beyond examining plate joints, it is crucial to assess the deformation response of tubular transition joints under pressure loading and transient temperature conditions to substantiate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the design. The simulation results affirm that the tubular transition joint demonstrates superior resistance compared to its counterpart DMW when subjected to multiaxial stresses in tubular structures. In addition, optimization of the transition joint’s geometry dimensions has been conducted to diminish the accumulated deformation and enhance the service life. Lastly, the scalability and potential of the innovative transition joints for large-diameter pipe applications are addressed.

Zhang, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Composition and persistence of soil organic matter along eroding and depositional transects in buried vs. modern soil layers: A case of the Brady paleosol at Wauneta, Nebraska

Paleosols form when soils are buried through deposition by aeolian, colluvial, alluvial or other processes. Burial of former topsoil isolates soil organic matter (SOM) from surface conditions, allowing carbon to accumulate and potentially remain stable for millennia. In this study, SOM composition, distribution, and persistence were analyzed in the Brady Soil of Nebraska, USA to compare SOM spatial variability in modern and buried soils, as well as the impact of erosional exposure on SOM stability. The Brady Soil, formed as a surface soil during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and now a paleosol buried up to 6 m deep (or more) by loess deposition during the Holocene, was sampled along burial (up to 5.8 m depth) and erosional (up to 1.8 m depth) transects to compare SOM dynamics in different geomorphic settings. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Fourier Transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) were used to analyze SOM composition, while δ 13 C isotope analyses identified SOM sources and radiocarbon values were used to estimate turnover rates. Results confirmed a vegetation shift from C3 to C4 plants after Brady Soil formation, reflecting warming climatic conditions. Increasing SOM age and decreasing δ 13 C and δ 15 N values with depth indicated slowing of decomposition rate in buried soils. Higher pH in the Brady Soil suggested greater base cation content, supporting SOM stabilization through organo-mineral associations and aggregate formation. However, exposure of the Brady Soil due to surface erosion caused faster SOM turnover. This result suggested susceptibility of buried SOM to losses via decomposition upon erosional exposure, possibly accelerated by priming in response to modern SOM inputs. These findings highlight the potential loss of carbon stocks in buried soils under future climate change, as shifts in soil physicochemical properties may destabilize long-preserved SOM.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy performance of an operational government building retrofitted with ceiling phase change material tiles in a mixed-humid climate

The aging U.S. building stock requires various retrofit measures to enhance their energy efficiency. Here, this study explores the integration of thermal energy storage and advanced building controls as viable retrofit solutions for load flexibility and peak demand response while maintaining the occupants' comfort. A detailed assessment is conducted on the energy use of an administrative building in Sumner County, Kansas, focusing on the implementation of phase change materials (PCMs) in the ceiling of occupied zones. First, a time-resolved, whole-building energy model is developed in EnergyPlus, incorporating complex thermal behaviors such as air exchange between the plenum space and occupied zones, envelope leakage, and operational schedules. The model is then validated using experimental field test data, and subsequently a parametric assessment of key PCM properties and application strategies is performed to evaluate cooling electricity demand benefits. The parametric study shows that the optimal retrofit strategy, comprising a PCM with 23°C peak melting temperature, 0.125 in. (3.17 mm) thickness, and 150 kJ/kg latent heat, combined with active controls that include 8 h of precooling, forced convection under the ceiling, and a 2°C thermostat setback during peak hours, can result in a maximum load shift during the peak period of 99.6 % and the total electricity savings during the peak period of 98.9 % for the optimum case and thus provide significant cost savings under time-of-use pricing scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

New generation bunch shape monitor for ion accelerators

Measuring longitudinal beam parameters is important for operation and development of high intensity linear accelerators, but it is notoriously difficult for proton and ion beams at non-relativistic energies. The Bunch Shape Monitor (BSM) is a device used for measuring the longitudinal bunch distribution in ion linacs. The existing BSM models have poor electron collection efficiency from the wire and are limited to one-dimensional measurements of the phase coordinate. In response to this problem, we have developed a new generation BSM with improved performance. The proposed design incorporates three major innovations: First, the collection efficiency was improved by adding a focusing field between the wire and the entrance slit, which will also allow measurements over a much wider dynamic range. Second, an improvement in the measurement speed was achieved by sampling longitudinal profiles of multiple energy slices simultaneously, where the BSM wire is placed at the exit of an ion spectrometer so that ions with different energies hit the wire at different horizontal coordinates along the wire. Finally, the design incorporates a motion system that can shift the wire and deflecting cavity together, enabling transverse profile measurements like a wire scanner. Here, in this paper, we will provide the design of the new BSM and report on its beam test results at the Spallation Neutron Source facility in Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Testing hadronic-model predictions of depth of maximum of air-shower profiles and ground-particle signals using hybrid data of the Pierre Auger Observatory

We test the predictions of hadronic interaction models regarding the depth of maximum of air-shower profiles, X max , and ground-particle signals in water-Cherenkov detectors at 1000 m from the shower core, S ( 1000 ) , using the data from the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The test consists of fitting the measured two-dimensional ( S ( 1000 ) , X max ) distributions using templates for simulated air showers produced with hadronic interaction models pos-, et--04, 2.3d and leaving the scales of predicted X max and the signals from hadronic component at ground as free-fit parameters. The method relies on the assumption that the mass composition remains the same at all zenith angles, while the longitudinal shower development and attenuation of ground signal depend on the mass composition in a correlated way. The analysis was applied to 2239 events detected by both the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory with energies between 10 18.5 eV to 10 19.0 eV and zenith angles below 60°. We found, that within the assumptions of the method, the best description of the data is achieved if the predictions of the hadronic interaction models are shifted to deeper X max values and larger hadronic signals at all zenith angles. Given the magnitude of the shifts and the data sample size, the statistical significance of the improvement of data description using the modifications considered in the paper is larger than 5 σ even for any linear combination of experimental systematic uncertainties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.

Olson, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗
DOE OSTI2026

Les Houches study on inclusive jet production at NNLO+NNLL

Jet production at the LHC is a powerful probe of QCD, making it ideal for precision tests and determinations of QCD parameters such as parton distribution functions and the strong coupling constant. To make the most of the abundant jet production data collected at the LHC, precise calculations are required. While state-of-the-art calculations reach next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD accuracy, a critical assessment of the remaining uncertainties arising from non-perturbative effects and missing higher orders remains crucial for correctly interpreting comparisons between theory and data. Scale variation is nearly always used to determine effects from missing higher orders. In this article, we reassess this method in the context of inclusive jet production by performing NNLO QCD calculations supplemented by small-jet-radius resummation through next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy (NNLL). We find that NNLL resummation can have an appreciable impact on the scale uncertainty for inclusive jet cross sections, and, for some scale choices, can lead to sizeable shifts of the central cross section. We conclude that scale variations in fixed-order and resummed calculations can drastically underestimate the impact of higher orders for commonly used jet radius parameters, and that missing higher-order estimates obtained via scale variations should be considered unreliable. Our findings add further evidence to the importance of going beyond scale variations in jet and jet substructure calculations.

Lee, Kyle↗