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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quick Talk: Resilient Communities, Maryland

Groundswell, Inc., in partnership with the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA), Ayika Solutions, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and the Baltimore Office of Sustainability, is advancing a vision for resilient, community-centered energy systems in Maryland. This effort aligns with Groundswell's commitment to a clean energy economy that equitably benefits all communities, closing gaps in representation, wages, and access to wealth generation, savings, and local jobs within a diverse energy supply chain. Project Vision and Objectives The project emphasizes "energy resilience," defined as a community’s capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and swiftly recover from power disruptions through inclusive planning and technical solutions. The approach centers on Resilience Hubs—designated community facilities equipped to support residents before, during, and after power-related disruptions. These hubs offer emergency resources, coordinate communications, and deliver essential services while reducing carbon emissions, ultimately enhancing residents' quality of life. Additionally, Resilience Hubs foster social connections, support disaster preparedness, and provide spaces for community programming and everyday use. The goals of Resilient Communities Maryland include: Developing a replicable framework for community energy resilience, applicable beyond Maryland. Defining community-led indicators of social impact and resilience. Establishing equitable decision-making processes in project design and implementation. Informing MEA of practical, community-based resilience strategies to shape future state initiatives. Approach Groundswell and its partners prioritize collaborative engagement with local stakeholders, ensuring that solutions are responsive to each community's unique needs. By integrating feedback from residents, local organizations, and government entities, the team has developed a holistic model for resilience that balances immediate benefits, such as improved emergency response, with long-term gains in social equity and environmental sustainability. Key Outcomes This initiative has produced valuable resources and insights, including: A Community Energy Resilience Framework: Designed to guide other communities in establishing energy resilience strategies tailored to their specific needs. Case Studies: Documenting best practices and lessons learned from pilot projects to serve as models for future resilience efforts. Community-Driven Impact Metrics: Highlighting the positive social impacts that resilience initiatives can bring, such as improved social connectedness and local decision-making power. Recommendations for MEA: Offering evidence-based insights to inform policies and funding opportunities that support resilient energy infrastructure in vulnerable communities. Next Steps Groundswell's final report will detail findings, including the potential for scaling resilience hubs across Maryland and other regions, with a focus on equitable access and community-driven outcomes. This project underscores the importance of aligning energy resilience with social equity, reinforcing community agency, and building systems that withstand and recover from future challenges effectively and sustainably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sandia's Integrated Methodology for Energy and Infrastructure Resilience Analysis

Sandia National Laboratories' (Sandia) Resilient Energy Systems (RES) Strategic Initiative is establishing a strategic vision for U.S. energy systems' resilience through threat-informed research and development, enabling energy and interdependent infrastructure systems to successfully adapt in an environment of accelerating change. A key challenge in promoting energy systems resilience lies in developing rigorous resilience analysis methodologies to quantify system performance. Resilience analysis methodologies should enable evaluation of the consequences of various disruptions and the relative effectiveness of potential mitigations. To address this challenge, RES synthesized the common components of Sandia's resilience frameworks into an integrated methodology for energy and infrastructure resilience analysis. This report documents, demonstrates, and extends this methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model predictive control of KSTAR equilibrium parameters enabled by TRANSP

Due to the complex behavior of tokamak plasmas and the importance of optimizing performance while avoiding instabilities and machine limits, plasma control algorithms are becoming increasingly dependent on sophisticated model-based control approaches. It is anticipated that the use of integrated modeling codes in the model-based control design process will reduce the amount of experimental time needed to implement new control algorithms by facilitating development of control-oriented models and enabling higher-fidelity closed-loop simulations. In this work, a reduced model is developed from a series of TRANSP simulations and is used to develop a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for controlling important equilibrium parameters in KSTAR [1] discharges. The control algorithm uses the KSTAR neutral beam injection system and the target plasma current and plasma boundary as actuators, and optimizes the plasma stored energy, loop voltage, and internal inductance while avoiding constraints that could lead to disruptions. Higher fidelity testing of the control algorithm is performed using a flexible framework for enabling external processes to actively control plasma parameters in TRANSP simulations. Furthermore, closed-loop simulations demonstrate the ability of the control algorithm to respond to disturbances in density and confinement, handle actuator failures, and move the discharge to high non-inductive fraction conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Radiation modeling and experimental validation of sub-cyclotron frequency microwave synchrotron radiation as a diagnostic tool for runaway electrons in present and future tokamaks

The microwave synchrotron radiation in the sub-cyclotron frequency region has been systematically validated as a diagnostic method for runaway electrons (>1 MeV) with radiation modeling and experiments on the DIII-D tokamak. Experimental observations reveal that sub-cyclotron frequency microwave radiation emerges only after runaway electrons are excited during plasma disruptions. Electron gyro-magnetic radiation modeling confirms that only runaway electrons with energies exceeding 1 MeV can emit radiation in the observed sub-cyclotron frequency band on DIII-D. The synchrotron Razin and Beaming effects are modeled in both the sub-cyclotron and standard Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) frequency region. Due to the pronounced beaming effect, the modeling supports that a standard ECE system is insensitive to synchrotron radiation from beamed runaway electrons (p ∥ >> p ⟂ ), but very sensitive to ECE radiation from isotropic suprathermal electrons (100 keV or less). DIII-D experiments further show that combining ECE and sub-cyclotron receivers reveals new insights into transient runaway dynamics during the plateau phase. Certain transient crash events appear only in the sub-cyclotron band or lead to opposite changes on the sub-cyclotron and standard ECE signals, supporting models where transient MHD events can exert a different effect on electrons of different energy levels. This novel diagnostic technique offers a powerful tool for studying and detecting runaway electron dynamics in both present-day and high-field future tokamaks. The diagnostic approach has been extrapolated to the SPARC tokamak, where sub-cyclotron radiation is predicted to respond sensitively and solely to runaway electrons during SPARC’s L-mode startup phase.

Yu, Guanying [Hefei Comprehensive National Science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Boson Fermion Nucleus Explanation for Fission Fragment Anisotropy: Monograph #13

Since 1952, anisotropy has been observed in the paths of fission fragments following the assimilation of an incident neutron or photon in the nucleus. Fission fragment flux favors certain angles relative to the path of the incident particle, constituting anisotropy. The amount of anisotropy is dependent on the energy of the incident particle. Fission fragment anisotropy can be explained by the disruption of nuclear structure combined with the requirement of a specific rotational orientation in theta and phi of that structure relative to the incident neutron or photon flux. A specific and limited area in the nucleus can assimilate the incident particle and induce upset within the structure, followed by scission and fission of the nucleus. The orientation and nature of the structure upset dictates fission fragment trajectory and is responsible for fission fragment anisotropy. This concept can be explained and supported by the theory of boson fermion nucleus (BFN) structure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of cloud–radiation denial experiments for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. The interaction between clouds and radiation is a key process within the climate system, and assessing the impacts of that interaction provides valuable insights into both the present-day climate and future projections. Many modeling experiments have been designed over the years to probe the impact of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) on the climate, including those that seek to disrupt the mean CRE effect and those that only disrupt the covariance of the CRE with the circulation. Seven such experimental designs have been added to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) of the US Department of Energy. These experiments include both the first and second iterations of the Clouds On/Off Klimate Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) experimental design, as well as the cloud-locking method. This paper documents the code changes necessary to implement such experiments and also provides detailed instructions for how to run them. Analyses across experiment types provide valuable insights and confirm the findings of prior studies, including the role of cloud radiative heating toward intensifying the monsoon, intensifying rain rates, and poleward expansion of the general circulation owing to cloud feedbacks.

Harrop, Bryce E. (ORCID:0000000339524525)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Delamination recycling of multilayer plastic films: Solvent-assisted separation pathways and recovery of solid polyolefins

Multilayer plastic films are excellent packaging materials due to the bound layers of multiple polymers, with each different polymer contributing to the film properties. Desirable properties lead to continuously growing demand for multilayer films. Multilayer plastic films are typically single-use and, as such, their increased production and disposal have led to waste management problems. Multilayer films are not currently recyclable primarily due to the multiple bound polymers. This work advances delamination as a recycling process to separate and sequester valuable polymers from multilayer films, facilitating the incorporation of these polymers into the circular economy. We effect delamination in a physical process that preserves targeted polymers as solid film, hence retaining their embodied energy. This work documents three different pathways of inducing delamination of multilayer films, with appropriate solvents disrupting adhesion between adjacent layers or dissolving a minor component of the film in less than an hour and at temperatures below 90°C, and where all initial polyethylene is maintained in its solid form throughout the process and is recovered at high purity. Solvent-based delamination is exemplified on commercial multilayer films with majority polyethylene (PE), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) or ethylene vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH) or nylon also present. Solvent-based delamination is an energy-efficient and environmentally friendly recycling process that improves upon dissolution-precipitation recycling, since delamination involves very little dissolution and no precipitation, and is superior to pyrolysis which breaks down the polymers, while delamination keeps polymer chains intact. Furthermore, delamination recycling can contribute to the sustainable use of multilayer films as they continue to protect our food and medicine.

Chemical Recycling↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the minimum transport required to passively suppress runaway electrons in SPARC disruptions

In Izzo et al (2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 096029), state-of-the-art modeling of thermal and current quench (CQ) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) coupled with a self-consistent evolution of runaway electron (RE) generation and transport showed that a non-axisymmetric (n = 1) in-vessel coil could passively prevent RE beam formation during disruptions in SPARC, a compact high-field tokamak projected to achieve a fusion gain Q > 2 in DT plasmas. However, such suppression requires finite transport of REs within magnetic islands and re-healed flux surfaces; conservatively assuming zero transport in these regions leads to an upper bound of RE current ~1MA compared to ~8.7MA of pre-disruption plasma current. Further investigation finds that core-localized electrons, within r/a < 0.4 and with kinetic energies ~0.2–15 MeV, contribute most to the RE plateau formation. Yet only a relatively small amount of transport, i.e. a diffusion coefficient ~18 m 2 s -1 , is needed in the core to fully mitigate these REs. Properly accounting for (a) the CQ electric field's effect on RE transport in islands and (b) the contribution of significant RE currents to disruption MHD may help achieve this.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mississippi's Strategic Resilience: A multi-systems approach to secure, reliable, and adaptable electric grid infrastructure

Mississippi’s electric grid resilience challenges are linked to an intersection of complex socioeconomic, ecological, technological, historical, and political challenges, exacerbated by increasing severe weather like flooding and tornado events. The state’s legacy of underinvestment in critical energy infrastructure, particularly in rural areas and vulnerable floodplains, have stressed an aging grid, creating long-lasting disruptions in electric service during weather-related outages. Effective emergency management and preparedness is further hampered by a lack of coordination across local, county, and regional scales. Using the TASTI-GRID platform and partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Mississippi is developing a comprehensive regional resilience strategy to overcome energy security and reliability challenges, mitigating the impacts of natural hazards, and positioning Mississippi as a resilient and premier destination for residents, businesses, and economic development.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19 and the Power Sector in Southeast Asia: Impacts and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic is unique among the range of threats encountered over the last century, and its specific impacts do not necessarily resemble those of other disasters. In the near term, the pandemic is causing demand shocks, workforce impacts, supply chain complications, and a global, economic contraction with long-term consequences as yet unknown. In contrast, with natural disasters the principal impacts are more acute. These include infrastructure destruction, displaced populations, and often localized economic impact; however, the long-term response to both of these threats–pandemics and destructive forces of nature–requires similar approaches to building short-term and long-term resilience that prepare power sectors for safe and reliable operation during times of disruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Delivering Contextual Knowledge and Critical Skills of Disruptive Technologies through Problem-Based Learning in Research Experiences for Undergraduates Setting

The recent development in transportation, such as energy-efficient and autonomous vehicles, defines a condition for the students in transportation engineering. Students in the field of transportation engineering should be ready upon their graduation with new knowledge and skills that are compatible with the need of the industry and sustainable engineering practices.During summers of 2018 and 2019, we developed and implemented an eight-week program to increase the knowledge and skills of students coming from multidisciplinary fields related to autonomous vehicles. Problem of “How much will platooning reduce fuel consumption and emissions per vehicle mile traveled?” was instrumentalized in subsequent activities to introduce the comprehensive knowledge structure of autonomous vehicles.The engineering concept of reducing the cost and sustainability was embedded in the leading research question that helped us to develop and implement activities on an overall knowledge structure in autonomous vehicles. The goal of using problem-based learning activities was not to encourage the students to focus on reaching the solution merely. We aimed to introduce the multidisciplinary knowledge and critical skills aspects of learning about disruptive technologies.In this paper, we will discuss how a multidisciplinary research approach was incorporated into a problem-based learning activity. The students were introduced the subjects related to math, physics, computer science, and biology as the integration of the knowledge structure of autonomous vehicles. We will also present the results on students’ use of critical skills such as machine learning and computer programming.

Comert, Gurcan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Breaking adsorption-energy scaling limitations of electrocatalytic nitrate reduction on intermetallic CuPd nanocubes by machine-learned insights

The electrochemical nitrate reduction reaction (NO 3 RR) to ammonia is an essential step toward restoring the globally disrupted nitrogen cycle. In search of highly efficient electrocatalysts, tailoring catalytic sites with ligand and strain effects in random alloys is a common approach but remains limited due to the ubiquitous energy-scaling relations. With interpretable machine learning, we unravel a mechanism of breaking adsorption-energy scaling relations through the site-specific Pauli repulsion interactions of the metal d-states with adsorbate frontier orbitals. The non-scaling behavior can be realized on (100)-type sites of ordered B2 intermetallics, in which the orbital overlap between the hollow *N and subsurface metal atoms is significant while the bridge-bidentate *NO 3 is not directly affected. Among those intermetallics predicted, we synthesize monodisperse ordered B2 CuPd nanocubes that demonstrate high performance for NO 3 RR to ammonia with a Faradaic efficiency of 92.5% at –0.5 V RHE and a yield rate of 6.25 mol h –1 g –1 at –0.6 V RHE . This study provides machine-learned design rules besides the d-band center metrics, paving the path toward data-driven discovery of catalytic materials beyond linear scaling limitations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accessibility and Availability of Gas Stations for Liquid Fuel Supply During Severe Weather Events

Energy infrastructure is a pivotal lifeline with wider inter-dependencies. Electric power is essential to the continued functioning of critical assets; liquid fuels and other physical primary energy commodities that are used to supply the local energy needs of these assets during extreme events when electricity infrastructure is compromised. During Superstorm Sandy, the disruption of fuel supplies in the Tri-state area necessitated increasing situational awareness about oil and natural gas (ONG) systems to redirect fuel supplies to first responders and for restoration efforts. During winter storm events over the past several years, the demand for ONG for heating and power generation has skyrocketed in the north-east, which subsequently had caused ONG price to hit their highest level in years. ONG is a major energy source for restoration and recovery activities. However, very little, if any, situational awareness information about ONG supply and demand is available to those coordinating emergency efforts. Often this lack of information is due to the decentralized nature of the ONG supply chain and proprietary data maintained by private entities. To understand the impact of fuel availability on response and recovery efforts, this research focuses on (i) determining the accessibility to gas stations for liquid fuel supply across space and time, and (ii) examining the spatio-temporal variation of fuel availability and demand during extreme weather events. The broader scope of the project focuses on providing spatio-temporal situational awareness information about ONG availability and demand across the fuel supply chain for positioning of resources for response activities.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multilevel Analysis, Design, and Modeling of Coupling Advanced Nuclear Reactors and Thermal Energy Storage in an Integrated Energy System

This report discusses the different options for coupling thermal energy storage (TES) systems to advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) in order to enable flexible and hybrid plant operation. An advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating a thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. The models presented herein showcase several design considerations, focusing on optimal deployment methodologies for achieving steady-state and transient-state operation with minimum disruption to the nuclear power cycle. This first part of the study presents steady-state models developed using Aspen HYSYS®, with the thermal energy bypass for NPP-TES coupling being varied at up to 50%. The various components were sized using the Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR), when applicable. Cost functions from these models were developed using the latest publicly available data obtained from APEA V11. The TES-coupled A-NPP steady-state models and cost functions then provided a baseline for dynamic operation and process optimization by using Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tools. A stochastic optimization of the various energy storage systems coupled to the A-NPPs was then performed using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON). The signal processing and synthetic history capabilities of RAVEN were used to account for the unpredictable behavior of electricity markets. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to analyze price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market and were applied to the HERON analysis in order to optimize a system with the best economics. Transient modeling evaluation was then performed using Modelica models within the HYBRID repository, which was developed at INL for the Department of Energy Integrated Energy Systems program for the characterization of dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback. This includes evaluation of the TES-coupled A-LWR systems’ impact on physical and thermal system response during imposed system demands. Additional TES-coupled reactor types, coupling approaches, markets, and TES technologies will be evaluated in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

CyTRICS Impact-Based Prioritization Process

Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗