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At least 271 records · Page 15

Diurnal evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli in a large-eddy simulation ensemble

Abstract. We explore the cloud system evolution of non-precipitating marine stratocumuli with a focus on the impacts of the diurnal cycle and free-tropospheric (FT) humidity based on an ensemble of 244 large-eddy simulations generated by perturbing initial thermodynamic profiles and aerosol conditions. Cases are categorized based on their degree of decoupling and the cloud liquid water path (LWPc, based on model columns with cloud optical depths greater than one). A budget analysis method is proposed to analyze the evolution of cloud water in both coupled and decoupled boundary layers. More coupled clouds start with a relatively low LWPc and cloud fraction (fc) but experience the least decrease in LWPc and fc during the daytime. More decoupled clouds undergo greater daytime reduction in LWPc and fc, especially those with higher LWPc at sunrise because they suffer from faster weakening of net radiative cooling. During the nighttime, a positive correlation between FT humidity and the LWPc emerges, consistent with higher FT humidity reducing both radiative cooling and the humidity jump, both of which reduce entrainment and increase LWPc. The LWPc is more likely to decrease during the nighttime for a larger LWPc and greater inversion base height (zi), conditions under which entrainment dominates as turbulence develops. In the morning, the rate of the LWPc reduction depends on the LWPc at sunrise, zi, and the degree of decoupling, with distinct contributions from subsidence and radiation.

Chen, Yao-Sheng (ORCID:0000000208354132)↗

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗

Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the largest source of uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming consistent with the observational record. The effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERFaci) is dominated by liquid clouds and is composed of two terms: the change in cloud albedo due to redistributing liquid over a larger number of cloud droplets (Nd) and the change in cloud macrophysical properties due to changes in cloud microphysics. These terms are, respectively, referred to as the radiative forcing due to ACI (RFaci) and aerosol–cloud adjustments. While the magnitude of RFaci is uncertain, its sign is confidently negative and results in a cooling in the historical record. In contrast, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP) to enhanced Nd and associated radiative forcing is uncertain in sign. Increased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with precipitation suppression, while decreased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with enhanced evaporation from cloud top. Observational constraints of these processes are poor in part because of causal ambiguity in the relationship between Nd and LWP. To better understand this relationship, precipitation (P), Nd, and LWP surface observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory are combined with the output from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). This allows for causal interpretation of observed covariability. Observations of precipitation and cloud from ENA constrain the range of possible LWP aerosol–cloud adjustments relative to the prior from the PPE by 15 %, resulting in a global value that is confidently positive (a historical cooling) ranging from 2.1 to 6.9 g m−2. It is found that observed covariability between Nd and LWP is dominated by coalescence scavenging and that this observed covariability is not strongly related to aerosol–cloud adjustments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An altitude chamber rescue ensemble

Altitude chamber tests accomplished with the astronaut crews in the spacecraft at a simulated altitude of above 200,000 ft requires that a rescue team be provided in the event of an accident in the spacecraft. The rescue crew is stationed in an airlock maintained at an altitude of 18,000 ft. A protective ensemble provides the rescue crew with life support capabilities, communications, and protection in the event of an emergency. In the event of an emergency, repressurization of the chamber is initiated; as the chamber descends, the airlock ascends and the two meet at 25,000 ft. This phase of the emergency repressurization takes less than 30 sec.

Lloyd, R. P.↗

Pioneer 7 observations of the August 29, 1966, interplanetary shock-wave ensemble.

The detailed plasma (except for electrons) and magnetic field data from Pioneer 7 are presented for a proposed double-shock ensemble. The Ames Research Center plasma probe data are compared with that of the MIT probe. These data are compared with MHD theory to show that the discontinuities themselves satisfy the magnetic Hugoniot equations. The data are also compared with the theoretical predictions for the double-shock structure. The theory requires as input only the forward shock velocity, the original ambient solar wind conditions, and a reasonable assumption regarding the density and azimuthal magnetic field in the 'new' solar wind which is detected after passage of the reverse shock. A unique solution is then obtained for the theoretical piston and reverse shock positions as well as for the temporal plasma behavior for both infinite and finite electrical conductivities.

Dryer, M.↗

Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. I

A theory of the interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment is developed. In this theory, the large-scale environment is divided into the subcloud mixed layer and the region above. The time changes of the environment are governed by the heat and moisture budget equations for the subcloud mixed layer and for the region above, and by a prognostic equation for the depth of the mixed layer. In the environment above the mixed layer, the cumulus convection affects the temperature and moisture fields through cumulus-induced subsidence and detrainment of saturated air containing liquid water which evaporates in the environment. In the subcloud mixed layer, the cumulus convection does not act directly on the temperature and moisture fields, but it affects the depth of the mixed layer through cumulus-induced subsidence.

Arakawa, A.↗

On the dynamics of agglomerating ensembles of clouds

It is shown that for dynamical time scales longer than 10 million years the ensemble of interstellar cold diffuse clouds may be described by equations of mass and momentum conservation where the pressure has the form p/v-squared/ where /v-squared/ is the mass averaged square velocity dispersion. Equilibrium cloud spectra are derived and an equation of state obtained. The equation of state undergoes a phase transition at a critical density close to the local interstellar gas density. At higher densities, more massive clouds are formed and the cloud fluid softens. It is suggested that this mechanism may naturally regulate the interstellar gas density if star formation is very efficient in the cooler high-density systems.

Cowie, L. L.↗

Protective Garment Ensemble

Protective garment ensemble with internally-mounted environmental- control unit contains its own air supply. Alternatively, a remote-environmental control unit or an air line is attached at the umbilical quick disconnect. Unit uses liquid air that is vaporized to provide both breathing air and cooling. Totally enclosed garment protects against toxic substances.

Wakefield, M. E.↗

Estimation of Kalman filter model parameters from an ensemble of tests

A methodology for estimating initial mean and covariance parameters in a Kalman filter model from an ensemble of nonidentical tests is presented. In addition, the problem of estimating time constants and process noise levels is addressed. Practical problems such as developing and validating inertial instrument error models from laboratory test data or developing error models of individual phases of a test are generally considered.

Gibbs, B. P.↗

Program for narrow-band analysis of aircraft flyover noise using ensemble averaging techniques

A package of computer programs was developed for analyzing acoustic data from an aircraft flyover. The package assumes the aircraft is flying at constant altitude and constant velocity in a fixed attitude over a linear array of ground microphones. Aircraft position is provided by radar and an option exists for including the effects of the aircraft's rigid-body attitude relative to the flight path. Time synchronization between radar and acoustic recording stations permits ensemble averaging techniques to be applied to the acoustic data thereby increasing the statistical accuracy of the acoustic results. Measured layered meteorological data obtained during the flyovers are used to compute propagation effects through the atmosphere. Final results are narrow-band spectra and directivities corrected for the flight environment to an equivalent static condition at a specified radius.

Gridley, D.↗

Ensemble averaging of acoustic data

A computer program called Ensemble Averaging of Acoustic Data is documented. The program samples analog data, analyzes the data, and displays them in the time and frequency domains. Hard copies of the displays are the program's output. The documentation includes a description of the program and detailed user instructions for the program. This software was developed for use on the Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel's Dynamic Analysis System consisting of a PDP-11/45 computer, two RK05 disk drives, a tektronix 611 keyboard/display terminal, and FPE-4 Fourier Processing Element, and an analog-to-digital converter.

Stefanski, P. K.↗

Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. IV - The discrete model

The Arakawa-Schubert (1974) parameterization is applied to a prognostic model of large-scale atmospheric circulations and used to analyze data in a general circulation model (GCM). The vertical structure of the large-scale model and the solution for the cloud subensemble thermodynamical properties are examined to choose cloud levels and representative regions. A mass flux distribution equation is adapted to formulate algorithms for calculating the large-scale forcing and the mass flux kernel, using either direct solution or linear programming. Finally, the feedback of the cumulus ensemble on the large-scale environment for a given subensemble mass flux is calculated. All cloud subensemble properties were determined from the conservation of mass, moist static energy, and total water.

Lord, S. J.↗