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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Pilot Project Technology Business Case: Mobile Work Packages

Performance advantages of the new pilot project technologies are widely acknowledged, but it has proven difficult for utilities to derive business cases for justifying investment in these new capabilities. Lack of a business case is often cited by utilities as a barrier to pursuing wide-scale application of digital technologies to nuclear plant work activities. The decision to move forward with funding usually hinges on demonstrating actual cost reductions that can be credited to budgets and thereby truly reduce O&M or capital costs. Technology enhancements, while enhancing work methods and making work more efficient, often fail to eliminate workload such that it changes overall staffing and material cost requirements. It is critical to demonstrate cost reductions or impacts on non-cost performance objectives in order for the business case to justify investment by nuclear operators. The Business Case Methodology (BCM) was developed in September of 2015 to frame the benefit side of II&C technologies to address the “benefit” side of the analysis—as opposed to the cost side—and how the organization evaluates discretionary projects (net present value (NPV), accounting effects of taxes, discount rates, etc.). The cost and analysis side is not particularly difficult for the organization and can usually be determined with a fair amount of precision (not withstanding implementation project cost overruns). It is in determining the “benefits” side of the analysis that utilities have more difficulty in technology projects and that is the focus of this methodology. The methodology is presented in the context of the entire process, but the tool provided is limited to determining the organizational benefits only. This report describes a the use of the BCM in building a business case for mobile work packages, which includes computer-based procedures and other automated elements of a work package. Key to those impacts will be identifying where the savings are “harvestable,” meaning they result in an actual reduction in headcount and/or cost. The report describes the specific activities conducted with a partner utility to examine the various work activities associated with mobile work packages to determine what time savings and error rate reductions are available. The report summarizes these findings in the form of a business case for the technology.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable and flexible non-intrusive reduced-order models using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

This paper develops an interpretable, non-intrusive reduced-order modeling technique using regularized kernel interpolation. Existing non-intrusive approaches approximate the dynamics of a reduced-order model (ROM) by solving a data-driven least-squares regression problem for low-dimensional matrix operators. Our approach instead leverages regularized kernel interpolation, which yields an optimal approximation of the ROM dynamics from a user-defined reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that our kernel-based approach can produce interpretable ROMs whose structure mirrors full-order model structure by embedding judiciously chosen feature maps into the kernel. The approach is flexible and allows a combination of informed structure through feature maps and closure terms via more general nonlinear terms in the kernel. We also derive a computable a posteriori error bound that combines standard error estimates for intrusive projection-based ROMs and kernel interpolants. In conclusion, the approach is demonstrated in several numerical experiments that include comparisons to operator inference using both proper orthogonal decomposition and quadratic manifold dimension reduction.

Data-driven model reduction↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geostatistical interpolation of streambed hydrologic attributes with addition of left censored data and anisotropy

Spatial geostatistical interpolation of point measurements of streambed attributes in the hyporheic zone may be constrained by the streambed anisotropy, and data density and spatial distribution may significantly impact the results. Spatial clustering and low spatial data density can be caused by bedrock outcropping at the streambed limiting installation of in-stream piezometers. This study examines parameter error variability of the geostatistical interpolation using anisotropic interpolation methods and increasing the data density by adding left censored values (i.e., data below measurement limit) to locations where measurements were limited by exposed bedrock lining the streambed. The reduction in relative standard error of the interpolation was determined for the spatial distributions of streambed attributes including hydraulic conductivity, seepage flux, and mercury solute flux measured in two different years along a study reach in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA. Here, two methods to impute the left censored values were compared including the conventional half the detection limit substitution method, and the Stochastic Approximation of Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) algorithm, which both had comparable results. Imputing left censored data increased the data density to recommended ranges, reduced data clustering, increased the spatial dependence for some attributes, and reduced the standard error for each of the three attributes. For the reach considered herein, addition of the left censored values resulted in a larger error reduction than the consideration of anisotropy within the interpolation, which confirms the benefit of data addition to increase data density within data-limited river corridors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Comparison of undulation difference accuracies using gravity anomalies and gravity disturbances

Errors in the outer zone contribution to oceanic undulation differences computed from a finite set of potential coefficients based on satellite measurements of gravity anomalies and gravity disturbances are analyzed. Equations are derived for the truncation errors resulting from the lack of high-degree coefficients and the commission errors arising from errors in the available lower-degree coefficients, and it is assumed that the inner zone (spherical cap) is sufficiently covered by surface gravity measurements in conjunction with altimetry or by gravity anomaly data. Numerical computations of error for various observational conditions reveal undulation difference errors ranging from 13 to 15 cm and from 6 to 36 cm in the cases of gravity anomaly and gravity disturbance data, respectively for a cap radius of 10 deg and mean anomalies accurate to 10 mgal, with a reduction of errors in both cases to less than 10 cm as mean anomaly accuracy is increased to 1 mgal. In the absence of a spherical cap, both cases yield error estimates of 68 cm for an accuracy of 1 mgal and between 93 and 160 cm for the lesser accuracy, which can be reduced to about 110 cm by the introduction of a perfect 30-deg reference field.

Jekeli, C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Approaches to reducing photon dose calculation errors near metal implants

Purpose: Dose calculation errors near metal implants are caused by limitations of the dose calculation algorithm in modeling tissue/metal interface effects as well as density assignment errors caused by imaging artifacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate two strategies for reducing dose calculation errors near metal implants: implementation of metal-based energy deposition kernels in the convolution/superposition (C/S) dose calculation method and use of metal artifact reduction methods for computed tomography (CT) imaging. Methods: Both error reduction strategies were investigated using a simple geometric slab phantom with a rectangular metal insert (composed of titanium or Cerrobend), as well as two anthropomorphic phantoms (one with spinal hardware and one with dental fillings), designed to mimic relevant clinical scenarios. To assess the dosimetric impact of metal kernels, the authors implemented titanium and silver kernels in a commercial collapsed cone C/S algorithm. To assess the impact of CT metal artifact reduction methods, the authors performed dose calculations using baseline imaging techniques (uncorrected 120 kVp imaging) and three commercial metal artifact reduction methods: Philips Healthcare’s O-MAR, GE Healthcare’s monochromatic gemstone spectral imaging (GSI) using dual-energy CT, and GSI with metal artifact reduction software (MARS) applied. For the simple geometric phantom, radiochromic film was used to measure dose upstream and downstream of metal inserts. For the anthropomorphic phantoms, ion chambers and radiochromic film were used to quantify the benefit of the error reduction strategies. Results: Metal kernels did not universally improve accuracy but rather resulted in better accuracy upstream of metal implants and decreased accuracy directly downstream. For the clinical cases (spinal hardware and dental fillings), metal kernels had very little impact on the dose calculation accuracy (<1.0%). Of the commercial CT artifact reduction methods investigated, the authors found that O-MAR was the most consistent method, resulting in either improved dose calculation accuracy (dental case) or little impact on calculation accuracy (spine case). GSI was unsuccessful at reducing the severe artifacts caused by dental fillings and had very little impact on calculation accuracy. GSI with MARS on the other hand gave mixed results, sometimes introducing metal distortion and increasing calculation errors (titanium rectangular implant and titanium spinal hardware) but other times very successfully reducing artifacts (Cerrobend rectangular implant and dental fillings). Conclusions: Though successful at improving dose calculation accuracy upstream of metal implants, metal kernels were not found to substantially improve accuracy for clinical cases. Of the commercial artifact reduction methods investigated, O-MAR was found to be the most consistent candidate for all-purpose CT simulation imaging. The MARS algorithm for GSI should be used with caution for titanium implants, larger implants, and implants located near heterogeneities as it can distort the size and shape of implants and increase calculation errors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Optimal Digital Image Correlation Patterns for Deformation Measurement

Digital image correlation (DIC) relies on the surface texture of a specimen to measure deformation. When the specimen itself has little or no texture, a pattern is applied to the surface which deforms with the specimen and acts as an artificial surface texture. Because the applied pattern has an effect on the accuracy of DIC, an ideal pattern is sought for which the error introduced into DIC measurements is minimal. In this work, a study is performed in which several DIC pattern quality metrics from the literature are correlated to DIC measurement error. The resulting correlations give insight on the optimality of DIC patterns in general. Optimizations are then performed to produce patterns which are well suited for DIC. These patterns are tested to show their relative benefits. Chief among these benefits are a reduction in error of approximately 30 with respect to a randomly generated pattern.

Bomarito, G. F.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Resting myocardial blood flow quantification using contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in the presence of stenosis: A computational fluid dynamics study

Purpose: The extent to which atherosclerotic plaques affect contrast agent (CA) transport in the coronary arteries and, hence, quantification of myocardial blood flow (MBF) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is unclear. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the influence of plaque induced stenosis both on CA transport and on the accuracy of MBF quantification. Methods: Computational fluid dynamics simulations in a high-detailed realistic vascular model were employed to investigate CA bolus transport in the coronary arteries. The impact of atherosclerosis was analyzed by inserting various medium- to high-grade stenoses in the vascular model. The influence of stenosis morphology was examined by varying the stenosis shapes but keeping the area reduction constant. Errors due to CA bolus transport were analyzed using the tracer-kinetic model MMID4. Results: Dispersion of the CA bolus was found in all models and for all outlets, but with a varying magnitude. The impact of stenosis was complex: while high-grade stenoses amplified dispersion, mild stenoses reduced the effect. Morphology was found to have a marked influence on dispersion for a small number of outlets in the post-stenotic region. Despite this marked influence on the concentration–time curves, MBF errors were less affected by stenosis. In total, MBF was underestimated by −7.9% to −44.9%. Conclusions: The presented results reveal that local hemodynamics in the coronary vasculature appears to have a direct impact on CA bolus dispersion. Inclusion of atherosclerotic plaques resulted in a complex alteration of this effect, with both degree of area reduction and stenosis morphology affecting the amount of dispersion. This strong influence of vascular transport effects impairs the accuracy of MRI-based MBF quantification techniques and, potentially, other bolus-based perfusion measurement techniques like computed tomography perfusion imaging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reducing Formation-Keeping Maneuver Costs for Formation Flying Satellites in Low-Earth Orbit

Several techniques are used to synthesize the formation-keeping control law for a three-satellite formation in low-earth orbit. The objective is to minimize maneuver cost and position tracking error. Initial reductions are found for a one-satellite case by tuning the state-weighting matrix within the linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework. Further savings come from adjusting the maneuver interval. Scenarios examined include cases with and without process noise. These results are then applied to a three-satellite formation. For both the one-satellite and three-satellite cases, increasing the maneuver interval yields a decrease in maneuver cost and an increase in position tracking error. A maneuver interval of 8-10 minutes provides a good trade-off between maneuver cost and position tracking error. An analysis of the closed-loop poles with respect to varying maneuver intervals explains the effectiveness of the chosen maneuver interval.

Hamilton, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2016

Combining cluster number counts and galaxy clustering

The abundance of clusters and the clustering of galaxies are two of the important cosmological probes for current and future large scale surveys of galaxies, such as the Dark Energy Survey. In order to combine them one has to account for the fact that they are not independent quantities, since they probe the same density field. It is important to develop a good understanding of their correlation in order to extract parameter constraints. We present a detailed modelling of the joint covariance matrix between cluster number counts and the galaxy angular power spectrum. We employ the framework of the halo model complemented by a Halo Occupation Distribution model (HOD). We demonstrate the importance of accounting for non-Gaussianity to produce accurate covariance predictions. Indeed, we show that the non-Gaussian covariance becomes dominant at small scales, low redshifts or high cluster masses. We discuss in particular the case of the super-sample covariance (SSC), including the effects of galaxy shot-noise, halo second order bias and non-local bias. We demonstrate that the SSC obeys mathematical inequalities and positivity. Using the joint covariance matrix and a Fisher matrix methodology, we examine the prospects of combining these two probes to constrain cosmological and HOD parameters. We find that the combination indeed results in noticeably better constraints, with improvements of order 20% on cosmological parameters compared to the best single probe, and even greater improvement on HOD parameters, with reduction of error bars by a factor 1.4-4.8. This happens in particular because the cross-covariance introduces a synergy between the probes on small scales. We conclude that accounting for non-Gaussian effects is required for the joint analysis of these observables in galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genetic algorithm optimization of a chemical kinetic mechanism for propane at engine relevant conditions

Propane has demonstrated significant potential for reductions in greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions in medium- and heavy-duty engine applications, but further improvements require accurate, compact, and scalable chemical kinetic mechanisms to design the next generation of propane fueled engines, particularly at the boosted operating conditions necessary to meet the power density demand of medium- and heavy-duty applications. In this work, six key chemical reactions were identified in a reduced mechanism with 70 species and 352 reactions through a sensitivity analysis performed at conditions typical of thermodynamic trajectories observed in a high compression ratio, long stroke engine operated on propane from throttled to boosted operating conditions. While the original mechanism was validated against rapid compression machine (RCM) data, it was found to overpredict experimental autoignition tendencies in 2-zone, 0-D SI engine simulations performed in Chemkin Pro. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm approach was used to optimize the six reaction rate parameters within established uncertainty bounds by performing RCM simulations and comparing to two independent sets of literature ignition delay times for propane, thus generating two new kinetic mechanisms. The first optimization achieved a mean absolute percent error (MPE) reduction in 2nd stage ignition delay of 61.4% in seven generations, while the second optimization utilized a newer experimental RCM dataset, and achieved MPE reduction of 56.7% in seven generations, and further marginal improvement to 57.8% reduction in 34 generations. Finally, the two mechanisms were then evaluated again in the 2-zone 0-D SI engine model in Chemkin Pro comparing typical mean and knocking cycle trajectories, and it was found that the second optimized mechanism provided better prediction of knock onset at the representative conditions evaluated in this work, particularly for higher load operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Design Considerations for a Dedicated Gravity Recovery Satellite Mission Consisting of Two Pairs of Satellites

Future satellite missions dedicated to measuring time-variable gravity will need to address the concern of temporal aliasing errors; i.e., errors due to high-frequency mass variations. These errors have been shown to be a limiting error source for future missions with improved sensors. One method of reducing them is to fly multiple satellite pairs, thus increasing the sampling frequency of the mission. While one could imagine a system architecture consisting of dozens of satellite pairs, this paper explores the more economically feasible option of optimizing the orbits of two pairs of satellites. While the search space for this problem is infinite by nature, steps have been made to reduce it via proper assumptions regarding some parameters and a large number of numerical simulations exploring appropriate ranges for other parameters. A search space originally consisting of 15 variables is reduced to two variables with the utmost impact on mission performance: the repeat period of both pairs of satellites (shown to be near-optimal when they are equal to each other), as well as the inclination of one of the satellite pairs (the other pair is assumed to be in a polar orbit). To arrive at this conclusion, we assume circular orbits, repeat groundtracks for both pairs of satellites, a 100-km inter-satellite separation distance, and a minimum allowable operational satellite altitude of 290 km based on a projected 10-year mission lifetime. Given the scientific objectives of determining time-variable hydrology, ice mass variations, and ocean bottom pressure signals with higher spatial resolution, we find that an optimal architecture consists of a polar pair of satellites coupled with a pair inclined at 72deg, both in 13-day repeating orbits. This architecture provides a 67% reduction in error over one pair of satellites, in addition to reducing the longitudinal striping to such a level that minimal post-processing is required, permitting a substantial increase in the spatial resolution of the gravity field products. It should be emphasized that given different sets of scientific objectives for the mission, or a different minimum allowable satellite altitude, different architectures might be selected.

Wiese, D. N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning in materials research: Developments over the last decade and challenges for the future

The number of studies that apply machine learning (ML) to materials science has been growing at a rate of approximately 1.67 times per year over the past decade. In this review, I examine this growth in various contexts. First, I present an analysis of the most commonly used tools (software, databases, materials science methods, and ML methods) used within papers that apply ML to materials science. The analysis demonstrates that despite the growth of deep learning techniques, the use of classical machine learning is still dominant as a whole. It also demonstrates how new research can effectively build upon past research, particular in the domain of ML models trained on density functional theory calculation data. Next, I present the progression of best scores as a function of time on the matbench materials science benchmark for formation enthalpy prediction. In particular, a dramatic improvement of 7 times reduction in error is obtained when progressing from feature-based methods that use conventional ML (random forest, support vector regression, etc.) to the use of graph neural network techniques. Finally, I provide views on future challenges and opportunities, focusing on data size and complexity, extrapolation, interpretation, access, and relevance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Active learning strategy for high fidelity short-term data-driven building energy forecasting

The quality of a data-driven model is heavily dependent on the quality of data. Data from building operation often have data bias problems, which means that the data sample is collected in a way that some members of the intended data population are less likely to be included than others. Data-driven energy forecasting models built on such data hence are biased and could lead to large forecasting errors. Active learning—an effective method to defying data bias—is rarely studied or applied in the area of data-driven building energy forecasting modeling. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explores the application of active learning in data-driven building energy forecasting. The developed strategy in this paper efficiently generate informative training data within a time budget and uses block design to passively consider weather disturbances. The developed active learning strategy is applied and evaluated in both virtual and real-building testbeds against traditional data-driven methods. Via these virtual and real-building evaluation cases, we have demonstrated that the data bias problem typically exists in building operation data is resolved by applying the developed active learning strategy. Furthermore, building energy forecasting models trained from data generated from the active learning strategy have shown improved performances in both model accuracy and model extendibility perspectives. The effectiveness of the block design module is also validated to effectively consider the impact of weather conditions on active learning design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Implications of uncertainty on regional CO2 mitigation policies for the U.S. onroad sector based on a high-resolution emissions estimate

In this study we present onroad fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimated by the Vulcan Project, an effort quantifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the U.S. in high spatial and temporal resolution. This high-resolution data, aggregated at the state-level and classified in broad road and vehicle type categories, is compared to a commonly used national-average approach. We find that the use of national averages incurs state-level biases for road groupings that are almost twice as large as for vehicle groupings. The uncertainty for all groups exceeds the bias, and both quantities are positively correlated with total state emissions. States with the largest emissions totals are typically similar to one another in terms of emissions fraction distribution across road and vehicle groups, while smaller-emitting states have a wider range of variation in all groups. Errors in reduction estimates as large as ±60% corresponding to ±0.2 MtC are found for a national-average emissions mitigation strategy focused on a 10% emissions reduction from a single vehicle class, such as passenger gas vehicles or heavy diesel trucks. Recommendations are made for reducing CO2 emissions uncertainty by addressing its main drivers: VMT and fuel efficiency uncertainty.

Mendoza, D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of radiation transport in 3D stochastic media using 1D planar Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport algorithms

A subset of stochastic media radiation transport problems involves those in which radiation is incident on a thin slab of stochastic material. Particle tracking in 3D for such problems is expensive, and 1D planar models lack accuracy because they only allow the material to change in one dimension. Therefore, we propose dimensional emulation, which through a slight modification allows existing 1D planar geometry stochastic media radiation transport models to reproduce results from the equivalent 3D models by allowing the material to change in all three dimensions, reproducing the fidelity of the 3D model for the low computational cost of the 1D planar model. In this work, we apply dimensional emulation to three Monte Carlo stochastic media radiation transport models: Chord Length Sampling (CLS), the Local Realization Preserving method (LRP), and a variant of Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS). For a common Markovian benchmark set, the 3D emulation variants of these algorithms are numerically verified to reproduce the results of the 3D variants within statistics while running 1.3 to 2 times faster in the implementation within Sandia National Laboratories open-source research code PlaybookMC. The 3D emulation variants are also shown to yield a 72%–92% reduction in error for the thin slab problems in comparison to the 1D benchmark. As a result, the 3D emulation variant of CLS and CoPS-1 are shown to reproduce 3D CLS results that were used to approximate results for a 3D spherical inclusion geometry benchmark set.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗