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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Improved Methodology for Surface and Atmospheric Soundings, Error Estimates, and Quality Control Procedures: the AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval Algorithm

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 AIRS/AMSU retrieval algorithm is now operational at the Goddard DISC. AIRS Version-6 level-2 products are generated near real-time at the Goddard DISC and all level-2 and level-3 products are available starting from September 2002. This paper describes some of the significant improvements in retrieval methodology contained in the Version-6 retrieval algorithm compared to that previously used in Version-5. In particular, the AIRS Science Team made major improvements with regard to the algorithms used to 1) derive surface skin temperature and surface spectral emissivity; 2) generate the initial state used to start the cloud clearing and retrieval procedures; and 3) derive error estimates and use them for Quality Control. Significant improvements have also been made in the generation of cloud parameters. In addition to the basic AIRS/AMSU mode, Version-6 also operates in an AIRS Only (AO) mode which produces results almost as good as those of the full AIRS/AMSU mode. This paper also demonstrates the improvements of some AIRS Version-6 and Version-6 AO products compared to those obtained using Version-5.

Quality Control↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

A linear point design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. This paper derives theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. Experimental simulation results are found to be in agreement with theoretical predictions. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy

Simon, Donald L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Model estimation and identification of manual controller objectives in complex tracking tasks

A methodology is presented for estimating the parameters in an optimal control structural model of the manual controller from experimental data on complex, multiinput/multioutput tracking tasks. Special attention is devoted to estimating the appropriate objective function for the task, as this is considered key in understanding the objectives and strategy of the manual controller. The technique is applied to data from single input/single output as well as multi input/multi outpuut experiments, and results discussed.

Schmidt, D. K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Regional Shelter Analysis – External Gamma Radiation Exposure Methodology

During normal operations, buildings can protect their occupants from outdoor hazards, including nuclear fallout and other external gamma radiation hazards. Purposeful sheltering can increase this protection. The physics of building protection against external gamma radiation is relatively well understood and we can characterize the protection afforded by individual buildings. However, an operationally efficient, regional-scale methodology to account for building protection effects has not previously been available. Such a method is necessary because (a) the overwhelming majority of the US population is indoors at any given time and (b) a regional-level building protection methodology could better estimate populations truly at risk in emergencies, support improved decision-making (shelter vs. evacuation decisions), and help guide resources towards those most at risk. The Regional Shelter Analysis (RSA) methodology provides a comprehensive, yet operationally efficient method for population-based risk analyses. Specifically, it accounts for (a) building protection distributions (within and among different buildings) and (b) population postures (how people are distributed within and outside of buildings). The RSA method could support a common operating picture by providing user specific results that have the resolution appropriate for individual user’s needs while still being consistent with the information being provided to the other users. The method employs existing building and population databases and is compatible with most modern exposure and injury assessment tools. This report presents the RSA methodology and discusses general operational considerations, with a focus on external gamma radiation exposures. To place this work in the context of prior efforts and current initiatives, a focused literature review is provided that identifies the relevant literature, scientific findings, and datasets from a variety of scientific fields. Other reports in this series will discuss (a) the inhalation exposure pathway and (b) specific RSA implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerosol Indirect Effect Studies at Southern Great Plains During the May 2003 Intensive Operations Period

During May 2003 the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program conducted an Intensive Operations Period (IOP) to measure the radiative effects of aerosol and clouds. A suite of both in situ and remote sensing measurements were available to measure aerosol and cloud parameters. This paper has three main goals: First, it focuses on comparison between in situ retrievals of the radiatively important drop effective radius r(sub e) and various satellite, airborne, and surface remote sensing retrievals of the same parameter. On 17 May 2003, there was a fortuitous, near-simultaneous sampling of a stratus cloud by five different methods. The retrievals of r(sub e) agree with one another to within approx.20%, which is approximately the error estimate for most methods. Second, a methodology for deriving a best estimate of r(sub e) from these different instruments, with their different physical properties and sampling volumes, is proposed and applied to the 17 May event. Third, the paper examines the response of r(sub e) to changes in aerosol on 3 days during the experiment and examines the consistency of remote sensing and in situ measurements of the effect of aerosol on r(sub e). It is shown that in spite of the generally good agreement in derived r(sub e), the magnitude of the response of r(sub e), to changes in aerosol is quite sensitive to the method of retrieving r(sub e) and to the aerosol proxy for cloud condensation nuclei. Nonphysical responses are sometimes noted, and it is suggested that further work needs to be done to refine these techniques.

Feingold, Graham↗
NASA NTRS2012

Making the Case for Reusable Booster Systems: The Operations Perspective

Presentation to the Aeronautics Space Engineering Board National Research Council Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment Committee. Addresses: the criteria and assumptions used in the formulation of current RBS plans; the methodologies used in the current cost estimates for RBS; the modeling methodology used to frame the business case for an RBS capability including: the data used in the analysis, the models' robustness if new data become available, and the impact of unclassified government data that was previously unavailable and which will be supplied by the USAF; the technical maturity of key elements critical to RBS implementation and the ability of current technology development plans to meet technical readiness milestones.

reusable launch vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neptunium transition probabilities estimated through laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) measurements

in tis report calibration free–laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (CF-LIBS) approaches are promising for the analysis of radioactive materials; however, a lack of reported fundamental properties for these materials is an obstacle to implementation. Spectra of laser induced plasmas containing Np and Sr, along with Saha–Boltzmann methods, were used to estimate the first reported transition probabilities (TPs) of Np. These TPs enabled the first attempt at CF-LIBS analysis of radioactive samples to predict Np/Sr ratios with a mean error of 3.86%. The presented methodology of TP estimation will be applied to the study of other actinides and allow broader applications of CF-15 LIBS in the nuclear field.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Early season spring small grains direct proportion estimation - Development and evaluation of a Landsat based methodology

The Inventory Technology Development (ITD) project of the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS) program has developed an accurate, automated technology for early season estimation of spring small grains areal proportion from Landsat MSS data. The design criteria for an early season procedure included estimates available within the first 30 days of the growing season, low data processing/preprocessing requirements and no need for scene-to-scene registration. The prototype estimator which meets the design goals is based on a constrained linear model in which the observed spectral response of an entire scene is modeled as a linear combination of the major constituent elements in the scene. The procedure was evaluated over 100 sample segments collected for crop years 1976 through 1979 in the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Analysis of the test results indicated accuracy that compare favorably with both the automated at-harvest technologies tested during the FY81-82 AgRISTARS Spring Small Grains Pilot experiments and earlier analyst-intensive at-harvest technologies.

Phinney, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cumulus cloud base height estimation from high spatial resolution Landsat data - A Hough transform approach

A semiautomated methodology is developed for estimating cumulus cloud base heights on the basis of high spatial resolution Landsat MSS data, using various image-processing techniques to match cloud edges with their corresponding shadow edges. The cloud base height is then estimated by computing the separation distance between the corresponding generalized Hough transform reference points. The differences between the cloud base heights computed by these means and a manual verification technique are of the order of 100 m or less; accuracies of 50-70 m may soon be possible via EOS instruments.

Berendes, Todd↗
NASA NTRS2018

Shifting Data Collection from a Fixed to an Adaptive Sampling Paradigm

For domains where data are difficult to obtain due to human or resource limitations, an emphasis is needed to efficiently explore the dimensions of information spaces to acquire any given response of interest. Many disciplines are still making the transition from brute force, dense, full factorial exploration of their information spaces to a more efficient design of experiments approach; the latter being in use successfully for many decades in agricultural and automotive applications. Although this transition is still incomplete, groundwork must be laid for incorporating the next generation of algorithms to adaptively explore the information space in response to data collected, as well as any resulting empirical models (i.e., metamodels). The methodology in the present work was to compare metamodel quality using a fixed sampling technique compared to an adaptive sampling technique based on metamodel variance. In order to quantify metamodeling errors, a delta method was used to provide quantitative model variance estimates. The present methodology was applied to a design space with an air-breathing engine performance response. It was shown that competitive metamodel quality with lower associated error could be achieved for an adaptive sampling technique for the same level of effort as a fixed, a priori sampling technique.

Axdahl, Erik L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Outcomes of planetary close encounters - A systematic comparison of methodologies

Several methods for estimating the outcomes of close planetary encounters are compared on the basis of the numerical integration of a range of encounter types. An attempt is made to lay the foundation for the development of predictive rules concerning the encounter outcomes applicable to the refinement of the statistical mechanics that apply to planet-formation and similar problems concerning planetary swarms. Attention is given to Oepik's (1976) formulation of the two-body approximation, whose predicted motion differs from the correct three-body behavior.

Greenberg, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2011

Three-Dimensional Finite Element Ablative Thermal Response and Thermostructural Design of Thermal Protection Systems

A finite element ablation and thermal response program is presented for simulation of three-dimensional transient thermostructural analysis. The three-dimensional governing differential equations and finite element formulation are summarized. A novel probabilistic design methodology for thermal protection systems is presented. The design methodology is an eight step process beginning with a parameter sensitivity study and is followed by a deterministic analysis whereby an optimum design can determined. The design process concludes with a Monte Carlo simulation where the probabilities of exceeding design specifications are estimated. The design methodology is demonstrated by applying the methodology to the carbon phenolic compression pads of the Crew Exploration Vehicle. The maximum allowed values of bondline temperature and tensile stress are used as the design specifications in this study.

Dec, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, + 16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (+0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07 % of the AIS area)

Zwally, H. Jay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗