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DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-aware Continuous Implicit Neural Representations for Remote Sensing Object Counting

Many existing object counting methods rely on density map estimation (DME) of the discrete grid representation by decoding extracted image semantic features from designed convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Relying on discrete density maps not only leads to information loss dependent on the original image resolution, but also has a scalability issue when analyzing high-resolution images with cubically increasing memory complexity. Furthermore, none of the existing methods can offer reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the derived count estimates. To overcome these limitations, we design UNcertainty-aware, hypernetwork-based Implicit neural representations for Counting (UNIC) to assign probabilities and the corresponding counting confidence over continuous spatial coordinates. We derive a sampling-based Bayesian counting loss function and develop the corresponding model training algorithm. UNIC outperforms existing methods on the Remote Sensing Object Counting (RSOC) dataset with reliable UQ and improved interpretability of the derived count estimates. Our code is available at https://github.com/SiyuanXu-tamu/UNIC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spherical Indentation and Implementation of S 3 /P for yield stress determination of brittle materials

Here, a mathematically transparent and robust experimental method has been developed to estimate the yield stress of brittle materials through the analysis of depth-sensing spherical indentation. Employing Hertzian contact mechanics, an elastically invariant ratio based on the simple equation S 3 / P = 6RE r 2 , (where S and P are contact stiffness and indentation load, respectively) has been derived that enables more accurate and confident determination of the transition from elastic to inelastic deformation; a transition that the yield stress dictates and represents. Using two diamond spheres with radii of 3.2 and 8.6 μm, the indentation test method and analyses are applied to two vitreous silicates: Corning's HPFS 7980® fused silica and Vitro's Starphire® soda lime silicate. The estimated yield strengths are 8.15 GPa ± 2.5% for the fused silica and 6.1 GPa ± 3.3% for the soda-lime silicate, and both were independent of indenter radius. Verification of this new experimental method is demonstrated with an as-drawn titanium by showing equivalence of measured yield stress by its spherical indentation and that from uniaxial compression testing. This method will enable easier and more confident estimation of yield stress in brittle materials - a property that historically has been elusive to measure for these materials using common laboratory mechanical test methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modelling the ejection of primary aerosols during the fast pyrolysis of biomass anisotropic particles

A model for the fast pyrolysis of anisotropic biomass particles is presented which considers bubbling dynamics within the liquid intermediate phase (metaplast) and aerosol ejection from this phase. The model employs the population balance equation and the method of moments to estimate the production rate and resultant size distribution of aerosol ejections, incorporating a detailed CRECK reaction mechanism, and considers the effect of anisotropic biomass microstructure on the intraparticle transport of mass and energy. Here, this study investigates the impact of particle size, heating rate (heat transfer coefficient), and lignocellulosic composition on aerosol ejection. The model predicts that, at high heating rates (convective heat transfer coefficient of 359 W/m 2 .K), aerosols can contribute over 20% to the heavy fraction yield in bio-oil for small particles (1 mm diameter, 4 mm length). The model can predict aerosol size distribution and surface area, indicating an average size of 20 μm for bubbles and 5 μm for aerosols during increased bubble production and aerosol ejection rates. These findings are consistent with prior experimental results and provide essential information for future modeling of extra-particle reactions of the aerosols as they progress through the reactor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A review of criticality dosimetry at the Y-12 National Security Complex and practical importance of dose accuracy in emergency response

A nuclear criticality results in the emission of both neutron and gamma radiation and can produce doses to personnel near the event that exceed 0.1 Gy (10 rad). The primary purpose of nuclear accident dosimetry is to rapidly identify affected personnel in need of prompt medical treatment and to reassure personnel who have been only minimally exposed. While accurate dosimetry is desired, it must be recognized that dose determinations made from whole-body dosimeters or simple triage methods are very rough estimates and contain significant uncertainties. Even when accounting for factors like varying neutron energy spectra, mean photon energies, body orientation within the radiation field, and transient effects on dosimeter response, etc., the end value is a dosimetric quantity defined for very specific radiological conditions and determined within a simple phantom usually at a single depth. Of more importance is the biological response to the radiation, which will vary by person and can be affected by the individual’s radiation sensitivity, age, gender, mass, and underlying health conditions. The overall biological, person-specific response to a given dose cannot be precisely determined except by patient symptom observation and individual biological dosimetry (e.g. chromosome analysis, lymphocyte ratios, etc.). This work describes and discusses the criticality accident dosimetry program at the Y-12 National Security Complex, a United States Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration facility. In conclusion, the primary goals of the Y-12 accident dosimetry program are, among others, the rapid identification of significantly exposed persons, prompt routing of exposed workers for medical evaluation and treatment, and the ultimate processing of dosimeters to assign doses to personnel.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integration of the Biot–Gassmann Fluid Substitution Method and Machine Learning-Based Velocity–Stress Relationship for Estimating In Situ Stresses

Recent advancements have shown that in situ stresses can be reliably estimated through an integrated machine/deep learning (ML/DL)-based framework, which relies on models trained and validated using true triaxial ultrasonic velocity (TUV) experimental data that involve measurements of ultrasonic velocity in saturated rocks under varying stress configurations. However, when the goal is to interpret lower frequency measurements, it may be more appropriate to run experiments on dry rocks and then obtain Biot–Gassmann-derived equivalent saturated velocities (low-frequency approximation) and employ these quantities for training ML/DL models to predict in situ stress. Whether the dispersion effect of frequency on the velocity–stress relationship substantially impacts in situ stress prediction is an important and unresolved question. This work presents an enhancement of ML/DL-based workflow by training and implementing ML/DL models using equivalent saturated acoustic velocities (low-frequency) obtained by applying Biot–Gassmann fluid substitution on the ultrasonic velocities of dry cores. The models were trained on TUV data sets derived from three subsurface cores extracted from the geothermal well 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site. Each core was subjected to 75 unique stress configurations for velocity measurement in the dry state. The ML/DL trained on the TUV data set with equivalent saturated velocities demonstrated promising performance to predict in situ stress in subsurface geological rocks using velocity–stress relationships with R 2 of 0.86, 0.971, and 0.975 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.59, 1.92, and 1.80 for validation/testing phases of vertical, minimum horizontal, and maximum horizontal stress models, respectively. Additionally, interpretation and explanation by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further improved scientific validation and model reliability for estimating in situ stresses.

colloids↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two California Cities Using Bayesian Inversion and Satellite Measurements

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO-2 and OCO-3) provide measurements of column-averaged carbon dioxide concentrations (XCO 2 ) with sufficient spatial resolution and precision to constrain bottom-up estimates of CO 2 fluxes at regional scales. We use Bayesian inversion methods assimilating satellite retrievals to improve estimates of CO 2 fluxes in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) which surrounds Los Angeles, and in the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBA). We study 2020 to understand the impact of the COVID-19 lockdowns and an active wildfire season. Our results indicated that a 50% (30%) reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to 2015 during the COVID-19 lockdown period was consistent with OCO measurements for SFBA (SoCAB). We find that posterior wildfire emissions differed significantly from the prior at the scale of individual wildfires, though with large uncertainties, and that wildfire emissions in SFBA are significant, attributing 72% of the region's CO 2 emissions during August 2020 to wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven organic solubility prediction at the limit of aleatoric uncertainty

Abstract Small molecule solubility is a critically important property which affects the efficiency, environmental impact, and phase behavior of synthetic processes. Experimental determination of solubility is a time- and resource-intensive process and existing methods for in silico estimation of solubility are limited by their generality, speed, and accuracy. This work presents two models derived from the FASTPROP and CHEMPROP architectures and trained on BigSolDB which are capable of predicting solubility at arbitrary temperatures for a wide range of small molecules in organic solvent. Both extrapolate to unseen solutes 2–3 times more accurately than the current state-of-the-art model and we demonstrate that they are approaching the aleatoric limit (0.5–1$$\log S$$ log S ) of available test data, suggesting that further improvements in prediction accuracy require more accurate datasets. The FASTPROP-derived model (called FASTSOLV) and the CHEMPROP-based model are open source, freely accessible via a Python package and web interface, highly reproducible, and up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than current alternatives.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100

Extreme weather events can severely disrupt critical infrastructure, triggering cascading effects on power, transportation, and essential services. However, standard weather and climate datasets often lack specialized variables necessary for hazard assessments. We present a unified dataset of infrastructure-critical weather and climate variables across the United States at 0.25° resolution, covering daily or sub-daily intervals from 1979 to 2100. The dataset includes temperature, dew point, wind gusts, precipitation partitioned by rain, snow, and freezing rain or ice pellets, lightning, and wildfire metrics. Historical conditions (1979-2023) are synthesized from observations and reanalysis products, while future projections are derived from 14 CMIP6 global climate models (historical, SSP245, and SSP585 experiments). Physically based and data-driven methods are used to estimate variables not directly provided by existing models. By integrating these variables into a single unified dataset, we enable consistent, high-resolution assessments of weather-related infrastructure risks across past and future periods, supporting wide-ranging applications in energy, transportation, water resources, emergency management, and beyond.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metal-organic chemical vapor deposition of MgGeN2 films on GaN and sapphire

MgGeN2 films were synthesized using metal-organic chemical vapor deposition on GaN/c-sapphire templates and c-plane sapphire substrates. Energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy was used to estimate the cation composition ratios. To mitigate magnesium evaporation, the films were grown at pyrometer temperature 745 °C with a wafer rotation speed of 1000 rpm. Growth rates were determined by fitting energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy spectra to film thicknesses using NIST DTSA-II software. The thickness estimates determined by this method were consistent with scanning transmission electron microscopy measurements done for selected samples. Scanning electron microscopy images revealed faceted surfaces indicative of a tendency toward three-dimensional growth. X-ray diffraction spectra confirmed that the films were highly crystalline and exhibited preferential orientation in alignment with the substrate. Atomic force microscopy measurements show that film thicknesses are consistent across samples grown on both GaN templates and sapphire substrates, with typical roughnesses around 10 nm. Transmittance spectra of films grown on double-side-polished sapphire substrates yielded band gaps of 4.28 ± 0.06 eV for samples exhibiting close-to-ideal stoichiometry. Comparison of the measured spectra with ab initio calculations are in good agreement both near the bandgap and at higher energies where excitation is into higher-lying bands. These findings provide insight into the growth and characterization of MgGeN2, contributing to the development of this material for potential applications in optoelectronics and power electronics.

Hu, Chenxi (ORCID:0000000236299660)↗

DOE OSTI2025

QCD Theory Meets Information Theory

We present a novel technique to incorporate precision calculations from quantum chromodynamics into fully differential particle-level Monte Carlo simulations. By minimizing an information-theoretic quantity subject to constraints, our reweighted Monte Carlo incorporates systematic uncertainties absent in individual Monte Carlo predictions, achieving consistency with the theory input in precision and its estimated systematic uncertainties. Our method can be applied to arbitrary observables known from precision calculations, including multiple observables simultaneously. It generates strictly positive weights, thus offering a clear path to statistically powerful and theoretically precise computations for current and future collider experiments. As a proof of concept, we apply our technique to event-shape observables at electron-positron colliders, leveraging existing precision calculations of thrust. Our analysis highlights the importance of logarithmic moments of event shapes, which have not been previously studied in the collider physics literature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural simulation-based inference of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling via off-shell Higgs production

One of the forthcoming major challenges in particle physics is the experimental determination of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling. While efforts have largely focused on on-shell double- and single-Higgs production in proton-proton collisions, off-shell Higgs production has also been proposed as a valuable complementary probe. In this article, we design a hybrid neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) approach to construct a likelihood of the Higgs signal incorporating modifications from the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT), relevant background processes, and quantum interference effects. It leverages the training efficiency of matrix-element-enhanced techniques, which are vital for robust SMEFT applications, while also incorporating the practical advantages of classification-based methods for effective background estimates. We demonstrate that our NSBI approach achieves sensitivity close to the theoretical optimum and provide expected constraints for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider. While we primarily concentrate on the Higgs trilinear self-coupling, we also consider constraints on other SMEFT operators that affect off-shell Higgs production.

Ghosh, Aishik [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (Un↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of the Cohn-alpha Method on Bare Highly Enriched Uranium Using Organic Scintillators [Poster]

The prompt neutron decay constant (α), can be used to calculate the lifetime of prompt fission chains within a multiplying system and verify reactor startup and shutdown. We analyze a fast, bare system consisting of highly enriched uranium (93% 235 U) hemisphere shells known as the Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC). We measured the system with a three by-four array of organic scintillators (OSCAR) to obtain the gamma-ray and fast neutron signals. Pulse shape discrimination was used to isolate the neutron time series data. The Cohn-α method was used to estimate α for 3 supercritical measurements of Configurations 8 MUSiC. We use these estimates to linearly extrapolate α at delayed critical. These values can be compared to highly detailed simulations in MCNP6.2.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovery of 15 A-F Main Sequence Pulsating Star Candidates

Delta Scuti stars, spanning spectral types A to F with masses between 1.5 and 2.5 solar masses, exhibit a complex mix of radial and non-radial pressure modes. This study focuses on 15 Delta Scuti, Gamma Doradus, and Hybrid candidate stars using TESS satellite photometry data with a time series of exposures ranging from 20 to 600 seconds across different sky regions. Employing the prewhitening technique via fast Fourier transforms, significant frequencies are extracted from light curves. Three approximation methods are used to estimate critical stellar parameters such as density, radius, and mass. This research also verifies the variability of these stars, which are currently not classified as variable in databases like SIMBAD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Activation of propane on Ag–PdO(101) model surfaces

Oxidation of alkanes remains a central challenge in catalysis due to the high activation barriers of C–H bonds and the thermodynamic favorability of complete oxidation. Palladium oxide (PdO), particularly its (101) facet, is known for its high reactivity in alkane oxidation, which is attributed to its coordinatively unsaturated palladium (Pd) and O atoms. In this study, we investigate the effect of silver (Ag) incorporation on the oxidation behavior of propane over PdO(101) using temperature-programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPRS) under controlled conditions. While pristine PdO(101) exhibits complete oxidation of propane with CO₂ and H₂O desorption at high temperatures (approximately 475 K), Ag incorporation induces a new CO₂ desorption peak at significantly lower temperatures (approximately 330 K). This shift is attributed to the formation of new active sites at the Ag–PdO(101) interface. Quantitative analysis reveals that low-temperature activity correlates with Ag coverage, while overall CO₂ production decreases, suggesting a redistribution of reactivity rather than an increase in active surface area. Activation energy estimations using the Redhead method confirm that C–H bond activation becomes more facile at the interface, with a 46 kJ/mol reduction compared to pristine PdO(101). These findings demonstrate that incorporating a less reactive metal such as Ag into PdO surfaces not only modifies the reaction energetics but also enables the design of bimetallic catalysts with improved selectivity for partial oxidation reactions.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Axion Dark Matter EXperiment 2A Cavity Characterization

We cooled the ADMX 2A cavities down to 5K and found the Q-factors for various tunings, which were about a factor of five larger than the Q-factors from the previous cooldown. We also found that the tuning mechanism with the piezo motor and gearbox is not currently equipped to handle cryogenic temperatures. We created an experimental warm bead pull setup using piezo motors, an alumina bead, a pulley system, and a distance calibrating script. We found that the bead pull method can successfully show us the reflection-induced electric field mode structure. This technique allowed us to differentiate between different TE and TM modes near mode crossings. However, some bead pull sweeps produced noisy or asymmetrical results, possibly due to asymmetries in the tuning rod orientation or antenna. Future iterations of the bead pull method can help us estimate the cavity form factor and maximize our scan range near mode crossings.

Maglione, D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Second Skin: A Wearable Sensor Suite that Enables Real-Time Human Biomechanics Tracking Through Deep Learning

Objective: Real-time determination of human kinematics and kinetics could advance biomechanics research and enable valuable applications of biofeedback and generalizable exoskeleton control. Here, this work aims to investigate a taskindependent, user-independent method for obtaining precise realtime joint state estimation across lower-body joints during a wide variety of tasks. Methods: We developed a generalizable sensing approach using a suit comprised of inertial measurement units (IMUs) and pressure insoles. With the suit, we collected a dataset of 33 tasks commonly performed during construction and hazardous waste cleanup (N = 10). We then trained deep learning user-independent, task-agnostic models to estimate joint lowerbody kinematics and dynamics using only worn sensor data. We likewise computed joint kinematics and dynamics analytically from sensor data to serve as a comparison tool for model results. Results: Our models achieved overall angle estimation root-meansquared-errors (RMSE) of 6.56±.92°, 8.60±1.01°, 7.58±.89°, and 6.00±.73° compared to 13.9±.1.3°, 15.31±1.0°, 10.76±.70°, and 7.56±.48° via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Likewise, our models achieved overall normalized moment estimation RMSEs of .207±.069 Nm/kg, .242±.044 Nm/kg, .202±.038 Nm/kg, and .193±.034 Nm/kg compared to .306±.036 Nm/kg, .407±.021 Nm/kg, 1.18 ±.022 Nm/kg, and 1.73±.071 Nm/kg via analytical methods at the lower back, hip, knee, and ankle, respectively. Conclusion: These results are comparable to other state-of-the-art wearable sensing systems, establishing deep learning as a viable sensing approach that generalizes to new users and tasks. Significance: This work shows promise for enabling accurate real-world biomechanical data collection and enhancement of biofeedback systems and wearable robot control.

Casey, Ryan T. F. [Georgia Institute of Technology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultrafast Correlation Energy Estimator

A virtually no-cost method is proposed that can compute the correlation energies of general, covalently bonded, organic, and inorganic molecules (including conjugated π-electron systems) with a well-defined dominant Lewis structure at the accuracy of 99.5% of the near-exact values determined by the coupled-cluster singles, doubles, and perturbative triples [CCSD(T)] in the complete-basis-set (CBS) limit. This Correlation Energy Per Bond (CEPB) method assigns a partial correlation energy to each bond type (characterized by the identities of the two atoms forming the bond and its integer bond order) and to a lone pair, regardless of the bond length, bond angle, sp-hybridization, π-electron conjugation, ionicity, noncovalent interactions, etc. At its current stage, the method is mainly suitable for near-equilibrium geometries. The correlation energies per bond are determined by a fit to the CCSD(T)/CBS benchmarks. It can neither improve the equilibrium structures nor discern conformers or positional isomers, yet its accuracy for reaction energies rivals that of the second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory, which is far more expensive. Its promising performance underscores the possibility that surprisingly compact, chemically intuitive molecular fragments exist into which correlation energies can be partitioned, leading to various ultrafast correlation-energy estimators tailored to different purposes.

Binding energy↗