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Accounting for Point Estimate Uncertainty in Space Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis

Understanding and accounting for uncertainty in risk analysis is a critical step in the management and communication of risk in engineered systems. The component and system-level analysis to determine the probability of a negative outcome and its consequence is often quantified by a point estimate. Many Program and Enterprise decisions involving technical concerns and issues rely on reliability engineering activities to produce quantified risk analysis to inform the decision making process. At NASA, it is common to use a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) to inform the overall risk to Loss of Mission or Loss of Crew that involves integration across all spacecraft subsystem fault trees to produce an overall probability of mission failure. The point estimate is an estimate of this overall probability and is an immediate result of a fault tree model. It is the result of a model where the probability of each event is taken to be equal to its mean. The value provides an approximation of the overall mean without running any uncertainty calculations (e.g., no sampling). Using only the point estimate can lead to a false sense of precision and the point estimate may not match the resulting mean when uncertainty is taken into consideration. This paper will explore five conditions that can cause the PRA model mean to diverge from the point estimate and will provide engineers and managers insight into the importance of understanding uncertainty in the elements of PRA models.

Paul J Collier↗
NASA NTRS2004

Unifying Temporal and Structural Credit Assignment Problems

Single-agent reinforcement learners in time-extended domains and multi-agent systems share a common dilemma known as the credit assignment problem. Multi-agent systems have the structural credit assignment problem of determining the contributions of a particular agent to a common task. Instead, time-extended single-agent systems have the temporal credit assignment problem of determining the contribution of a particular action to the quality of the full sequence of actions. Traditionally these two problems are considered different and are handled in separate ways. In this article we show how these two forms of the credit assignment problem are equivalent. In this unified frame-work, a single-agent Markov decision process can be broken down into a single-time-step multi-agent process. Furthermore we show that Monte-Carlo estimation or Q-learning (depending on whether the values of resulting actions in the episode are known at the time of learning) are equivalent to different agent utility functions in a multi-agent system. This equivalence shows how an often neglected issue in multi-agent systems is equivalent to a well-known deficiency in multi-time-step learning and lays the basis for solving time-extended multi-agent problems, where both credit assignment problems are present.

Agogino, Adrian K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗
NASA NTRS2016

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

system dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2000

Low Order Equivalent System Identification for the Tu-144LL Supersonic Transport Aircraft

Low order equivalent system models were identified from flight test data for the Tu-144LL supersonic transport aircraft. Flight test maneuvers were executed by Russian and American test Pilots flying the aircraft from Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, Russia. Flight tests included longitudinal and lateral / directional maneuvers at supersonic cruise flight conditions. Piloted frequency sweeps and multi-step maneuvers were used to generate data for closed loop low order equivalent system modeling. Model parameters were estimated using a flexible. high accuracy Fourier transform and an equation error / output error (EE/OE) formulation in the frequency domain. Results were compared to parameter estimates obtained using spectral estimation and subsequent least squares fit to frequency response data in Bode plots. Modeling results from the two methods agreed well for both a frequency sweep and multiple concatenated multi-step maneuvers. For a single multi-step maneuvers the EE/OE method gave a better model fit with improved prediction capability. A summary of closed loop low order equivalent system identification results for the Tu-144LL, including estimated parameters, standard errors, and flying qualities level predictions, were computed and tabulated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angular and Seasonal Variation of Spectral Surface Reflectance Ratios: Implications for the Remote Sensing of Aerosol over Land

We obtain valuable information on the angular and seasonal variability of surface reflectance using a hand-held spectrometer from a light aircraft. The data is used to test a procedure that allows us to estimate visible surface reflectance from the longer wavelength 2.1 micrometer channel (mid-IR). Estimating or avoiding surface reflectance in the visible is a vital first step in most algorithms that retrieve aerosol optical thickness over land targets. The data indicate that specular reflection found when viewing targets from the forward direction can severely corrupt the relationships between the visible and 2.1 micrometer reflectance that were derived from nadir data. There is a month by month variation in the ratios between the visible and the mid-IR, weakly correlated to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). If specular reflection is not avoided, the errors resulting from estimating surface reflectance from the mid-IR exceed the acceptable limit of DELTA-rho approximately 0.01 in roughly 40% of the cases, using the current algorithm. This is reduced to 25% of the cases if specular reflection is avoided. An alternative method that uses path radiance rather than explicitly estimating visible surface reflectance results in similar errors. The two methods have different strengths and weaknesses that require further study.

Remer, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Estimation of a remote sensing system point-spread function from measured imagery

A general approach to identifying the point spread function (PSF) of a remotely sensed scene is demonstrated in terms of a step function for an abrupt change in the gray level along the row or column of the image data. The estimate of the PSF is made in terms of a finite sum of basis functions, employing a sequence of rectangular pulses covering the spatial extent of the PSF. The approximation, if narrow impulses are employed, provides accurate fidelity to the PSF. The method becomes practical when the geometrical structure of the scene elements producing the measured response is known. The field boundary is obtained through consideration of the differing intensities on each side of the boundary, which is a step discontinuity. The mathematical procedure for the technique is provided, together with a sample problem from Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper data. Atmospheric blurring and electronic effects on the overall PSF and the cubic convolution resampling effects are noted.

Mcgillem, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modified fast frequency acquisition via adaptive least squares algorithm

A method and the associated apparatus for estimating the amplitude, frequency, and phase of a signal of interest are presented. The method comprises the following steps: (1) inputting the signal of interest; (2) generating a reference signal with adjustable amplitude, frequency and phase at an output thereof; (3) mixing the signal of interest with the reference signal and a signal 90 deg out of phase with the reference signal to provide a pair of quadrature sample signals comprising respectively a difference between the signal of interest and the reference signal and a difference between the signal of interest and the signal 90 deg out of phase with the reference signal; (4) using the pair of quadrature sample signals to compute estimates of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of an error signal comprising the difference between the signal of interest and the reference signal employing a least squares estimation; (5) adjusting the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the reference signal from the numerically controlled oscillator in a manner which drives the error signal towards zero; and (6) outputting the estimates of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the error signal in combination with the reference signal to produce a best estimate of the amplitude, frequency, and phase of the signal of interest. The preferred method includes the step of providing the error signal as a real time confidence measure as to the accuracy of the estimates wherein the closer the error signal is to zero, the higher the probability that the estimates are accurate. A matrix in the estimation algorithm provides an estimate of the variance of the estimation error.

Kumar, Rajendra↗
NASA NTRS2007

Iterative-Transform Phase Retrieval Using Adaptive Diversity

A phase-diverse iterative-transform phase-retrieval algorithm enables high spatial-frequency, high-dynamic-range, image-based wavefront sensing. [The terms phase-diverse, phase retrieval, image-based, and wavefront sensing are defined in the first of the two immediately preceding articles, Broadband Phase Retrieval for Image-Based Wavefront Sensing (GSC-14899-1).] As described below, no prior phase-retrieval algorithm has offered both high dynamic range and the capability to recover high spatial-frequency components. Each of the previously developed image-based phase-retrieval techniques can be classified into one of two categories: iterative transform or parametric. Among the modifications of the original iterative-transform approach has been the introduction of a defocus diversity function (also defined in the cited companion article). Modifications of the original parametric approach have included minimizing alternative objective functions as well as implementing a variety of nonlinear optimization methods. The iterative-transform approach offers the advantage of ability to recover low, middle, and high spatial frequencies, but has disadvantage of having a limited dynamic range to one wavelength or less. In contrast, parametric phase retrieval offers the advantage of high dynamic range, but is poorly suited for recovering higher spatial frequency aberrations. The present phase-diverse iterative transform phase-retrieval algorithm offers both the high-spatial-frequency capability of the iterative-transform approach and the high dynamic range of parametric phase-recovery techniques. In implementation, this is a focus-diverse iterative-transform phaseretrieval algorithm that incorporates an adaptive diversity function, which makes it possible to avoid phase unwrapping while preserving high-spatial-frequency recovery. The algorithm includes an inner and an outer loop (see figure). An initial estimate of phase is used to start the algorithm on the inner loop, wherein multiple intensity images are processed, each using a different defocus value. The processing is done by an iterative-transform method, yielding individual phase estimates corresponding to each image of the defocus-diversity data set. These individual phase estimates are combined in a weighted average to form a new phase estimate, which serves as the initial phase estimate for either the next iteration of the iterative-transform method or, if the maximum number of iterations has been reached, for the next several steps, which constitute the outerloop portion of the algorithm. The details of the next several steps must be omitted here for the sake of brevity. The overall effect of these steps is to adaptively update the diversity defocus values according to recovery of global defocus in the phase estimate. Aberration recovery varies with differing amounts as the amount of diversity defocus is updated in each image; thus, feedback is incorporated into the recovery process. This process is iterated until the global defocus error is driven to zero during the recovery process. The amplitude of aberration may far exceed one wavelength after completion of the inner-loop portion of the algorithm, and the classical iterative transform method does not, by itself, enable recovery of multi-wavelength aberrations. Hence, in the absence of a means of off-loading the multi-wavelength portion of the aberration, the algorithm would produce a wrapped phase map. However, a special aberration-fitting procedure can be applied to the wrapped phase data to transfer at least some portion of the multi-wavelength aberration to the diversity function, wherein the data are treated as known phase values. In this way, a multiwavelength aberration can be recovered incrementally by successively applying the aberration-fitting procedure to intermediate wrapped phase maps. During recovery, as more of the aberration is transferred to the diversity function following successive iterations around the ter loop, the estimated phase ceases to wrap in places where the aberration values become incorporated as part of the diversity function. As a result, as the aberration content is transferred to the diversity function, the phase estimate resembles that of a reference flat.

Dean, Bruce H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.

Raup, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multiple-Beam Detection of Fast Transient Radio Sources

A method has been designed for using multiple independent stations to discriminate fast transient radio sources from local anomalies, such as antenna noise or radio frequency interference (RFI). This can improve the sensitivity of incoherent detection for geographically separated stations such as the very long baseline array (VLBA), the future square kilometer array (SKA), or any other coincident observations by multiple separated receivers. The transients are short, broadband pulses of radio energy, often just a few milliseconds long, emitted by a variety of exotic astronomical phenomena. They generally represent rare, high-energy events making them of great scientific value. For RFI-robust adaptive detection of transients, using multiple stations, a family of algorithms has been developed. The technique exploits the fact that the separated stations constitute statistically independent samples of the target. This can be used to adaptively ignore RFI events for superior sensitivity. If the antenna signals are independent and identically distributed (IID), then RFI events are simply outlier data points that can be removed through robust estimation such as a trimmed or Winsorized estimator. The alternative "trimmed" estimator is considered, which excises the strongest n signals from the list of short-beamed intensities. Because local RFI is independent at each antenna, this interference is unlikely to occur at many antennas on the same step. Trimming the strongest signals provides robustness to RFI that can theoretically outperform even the detection performance of the same number of antennas at a single site. This algorithm requires sorting the signals at each time step and dispersion measure, an operation that is computationally tractable for existing array sizes. An alternative uses the various stations to form an ensemble estimate of the conditional density function (CDF) evaluated at each time step. Both methods outperform standard detection strategies on a test sequence of VLBA data, and both are efficient enough for deployment in real-time, online transient detection applications.

Thompson, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Comparative Analysis of Micrometeorological Determinants of Evapotranspiration Rates Within a Heterogeneous Urban Environment

Variability in micrometeorological conditions and their influence on estimated reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were evaluated across a heterogeneous urban environment. Micrometeorological data sets (incoming solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were collected over a one-year period at six weather stations in New York City, NY (USA). Weather stations are located at four new urban green space monitoring sites and two airports. Reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were estimated from the micrometeorological data sets for a short reference surface at a daily time-step using the ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation, a Penman-Monteith based combination equation. Nonparametric comparative statistical analyses (Kruskal-Wallis) revealed statistically significant differences (at significance level α = 0.05) in micrometeorological conditions and estimated RET rates between the six sites. On a cumulative annual basis, estimated RET varied by up to 40 percent between the sites. A new technique for adjusting weather data collected at one location (e.g. regional airports) for use at another location (e.g. interior engineered urban green spaces) was evaluated. The study highlights the importance, for accurate estimation of ET, of onsite micrometeorological data sets, but concludes that additional research is needed to more thoroughly characterize micrometeorological variability across heterogeneous urban environments, and also to evaluate the influence of non-meteorological determinants, e.g. vegetation type, soil/media type, media moisture conditions and anthropogenic heat fluxes, on urban ET.

Urban environment↗
NASA NTRS2000

Low Order Equivalent System for the Tu-144LL Supersonic Transport Aircraft

Low order equivalent system models were identified from flight test data for the Tu- 144LL supersonic transport aircraft. Flight test maneuvers were executed by Russian and American test pilots flying the aircraft from Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, Russia. Flight tests included longitudinal and lateral/directional maneuvers at supersonic cruise flight conditions. Piloted frequency sweeps and multi-step maneuvers were used to Generate data for p closed loop low order equivalent system modeling Model parameters were estimated using a flexible, high accuracy Fourier transform and an equation error output error (EE/OE) formulation in the frequency domain. Results were compared to parameter estimates obtained using spectral estimation and subsequent least squares fit to frequency response data in Bode plots. Modeling results from the two methods a-reed well for both a frequency sweep and multiple concatenated multi-step maneuvers. For a single multi-step maneuver, the EE/OE method gave a better model fit with improved prediction capability. A summary of closed loop low order equivalent system identification results for the Tu-144LL. including estimated parameters, standard errors, and flying qualities level predictions, were computed and tabulated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Fluid and Discrete Element Modeling of a Parallel Plate Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger for Concentrating Solar Power

A novel high-temperature particle solar receiver is developed using a light trapping planar cavity configuration. As particles fall through the cavity, the concentrated solar radiation warms the boundaries of the receiver and in turn heats the particles. Particles flow through the system, forming a fluidized bed at the lower section, leaving the system from the bottom at a constant flowrate. Air is introduced to the system as the fluidizing medium to improve particle heat transfer and mixing. A laboratory scale cavity receiver is built by collaborators at the Colorado School of Mines and their data are used for model validation. In this experimental setup, near IR quartz lamp is used to provide flux to the vertical wall of the heat exchanger. The system is modeled using the discrete element method and a continuum two-fluid method. The computational model matches the experimental system size and the particle size distribution is assumed monodisperse. A new continuum conduction model that accounts for the effects of solid concentration is implemented, and the heat flux boundary condition matches the experimental setup. Radiative heat transfer is estimated using a widely used correlation during the post-processing step to determine an overall heat transfer coefficient. The model is validated against testing data and achieves less than 30% discrepancy and a heat transfer coefficient greater than 1000 W/m2 K.

concentrating solar power↗