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At least 271 records · Page 15

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks

The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°-75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4 K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8 W/sq.m to 1.6 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°N-75°N) and 1.2 W/sq.m to 1.9 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°S- 75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks.

extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback↗

Asymmetric Warming/Cooling Response to CO2 Increase/Decrease Mainly Due to Non-Logarithmic Forcing, not Feedbacks

We explore the CO2 dependence of effective climate sensitivity (SG) with symmetric abrupt and transient CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1/8×, 1/4×, 1/2×, 2×, 4×, and 8×CO2, using two state-of-the-art fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models. In both models, under abrupt CO2 forcing, we find an asymmetric response in surface temperature and SG. The surface global warming at 8×CO2 is more than one third larger than the corresponding cooling at 1/8×CO2, and SG is CO2 dependent, increasing non-monotonically from 1/8×CO2 to 8×CO2. We find similar CO2 dependence in the transient runs, forced with -1%yr−1CO2 and +1%yr−1CO2 up to 1/8×CO2 and 8×CO2, respectively. The non-logarithmic radiative forcing – not the changing feedbacks – primarily explains the dependence of SG on CO2, particularly at low CO2 levels. The changing feedbacks, however, explain SG’s non-monotonic behavior.

climate sensitivity↗

The Long-Term Evolution of the Atmosphere of Venus: Processes and Feedback Mechanisms

This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior/exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus’s atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic out-gassing, surface-atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus’s inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hy- drogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations/missions required to refine our understanding of the planet’s history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.

Venus↗

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗

Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Analogs of present-day rapid ice melt can be found in episodic discharges of icebergs that occurred during glacial periods called Heinrich events. This introduces excess meltwater into the North Atlantic and weakens the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), triggering a hydrologic cycle–AMOC collapse feedback as the atmospheric energy transport compensates for reduced northward heat transport. Here we employ a novel series of 100-year North Atlantic “hosing” simulations to investigate atmospheric and oceanic energy transport response from freshwater forcing, focusing in particular on the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) within atmospheric energy transport. Importantly, we use an “overwriting” methodology that allow us to attribute AMOC weakening to added North Atlantic meltwater and subsequent hydrologic cycle responses, respectively. In contrast to far-reaching response of transient eddies, our results show a substantial increase in moisture convergence from ARs that is geographically constrained to the North Atlantic midlatitudes. Such AR changes nevertheless comprise an important component of net precipitation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with the amount being comparable to that from transient eddies over the subpolar Atlantic. Over the course of the century-long simulations, we demonstrate that hydrologic cycle responses to North Atlantic freshening and subsequent feedbacks, including those from ARs, account for approximately half of the simulated AMOC collapse. Furthermore, our work highlights the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport response to North Atlantic freshening events and elucidates how intensifying moisture transport may accelerate AMOC collapse in the future.

Atmospheric Science↗

Capturing the run-in of a pebble-bed reactor by using thermal feedback and high-fidelity neutronics simulations

Modeling the run-in of a pebble-bed reactor (PBR) can be challenging as a result of changes in the power, fuel type, and temperatures that occur throughout the run-in period. Previous work utilized high-fidelity neutronics simulations or lower-fidelity coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics models to capture the general characteristics of the run-in process. Here, the present work employs high-fidelity neutronics simulations (using Serpent) coupled with thermal-hydraulics simulations (using Griffin–Pronghorn) to capture the thermal feedback present during the run-in and approach to equilibrium for a PBR. Incorporating thermal feedback enables important distinctions to be made about conditions occurring inside the core, as the power distribution, discharge burnup, and isotopic compositions are all affected by the temperature distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming

Whether greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost will trigger positive climate feedbacks under warming remains unknown. Here, we synthesized the response of growing season carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to experimentally manipulated warming of ~2°C for permafrost in alpine and Arctic regions. Warming weakened the GHG sink of alpine permafrost, thereby increasing (13%) its global warming potential, but strengthened the GHG sink of Arctic permafrost and decreased (-10%) its global warming potential. When warming caused drying of alpine permafrost soils, the CO2 sink weakened but the CH4 sink increased. In contrast, warming of relatively wet Arctic permafrost increased the CO2 sink and CH4 source. Warming led to much stronger increases of the N2O source in alpine than Arctic permafrost. Although keeping additional warming below 2°C in permafrost regions can avoid the positive permafrost-climate feedback, measures are needed to maintain fragile carbon sink of alpine permafrost ecosystems.

Bao, Tao↗

Pickup Specifications for Crab Cavity Noise Feedback Pickup

The Electron-Ion Collider will employ crab cavities to compensate for the significant 25 mrad crossing angle, leading to an order of magnitude increase in luminosity. The crab cavity Radio Frequency system will inject low levels of noise to the crabbing field, generating transverse emittance growth and potentially limiting luminosity lifetime. A novel dedicated feedback system acting through the crab cavities has been proposed to mitigate emittance growth. The perfor mance of the noise feedback will largely depend on its pickup precision. In this note we present pickup specifications to achieve the required performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

HPDF Data Catalog and Lakehouse Demo Heuristic Evaluation and Roadshow Feedback Reports

The December 2025 roadshow gathered rapid feedback from community members on the proof of concept AmSC/HPDF data lakehouse and catalog solution 1. This provided the opportunity to demonstrate our current state of progress and gather input on workflows and AI agents. We recognize that the proofs of concept interfaces (OpenMetadata and Goose) are not intended for our end users so we have captured feedback to keep in mind as additional technical and conceptual design work is undertaken.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Convergence Analysis for an Online Data-Driven Feedback Control Algorithm

This paper presents convergence analysis of a novel data-driven feedback control algorithm designed for generating online controls based on partial noisy observational data. The algorithm comprises a particle filter-enabled state estimation component, estimating the controlled system’s state via indirect observations, alongside an efficient stochastic maximum principle-type optimal control solver. By integrating weak convergence techniques for the particle filter with convergence analysis for the stochastic maximum principle control solver, we derive a weak convergence result for the optimization procedure in search of optimal data-driven feedback control. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The SPT-Chandra BCG Spectroscopic Survey. I. Evolution of the Entropy Threshold for ICM Cooling and AGN Feedback in Galaxy Clusters over the Last 10 Gyr

Abstract We present a multiwavelength study of the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) in a sample of the 95 most massive galaxy clusters selected from the South Pole Telescope Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) survey. Our sample spans a redshift range of 0.3 < z < 1.7, and is complete with optical spectroscopy from various ground-based observatories, as well as ground and space-based imaging from optical, X-ray, and radio wave bands. At z ∼ 0, previous studies have shown a strong correlation between the presence of a low-entropy cool core and the presence of both star formation and radio-loud active galactic nuclei in the central BCG. We show for the first time that the central entropy threshold for triggering star formation, which is universally seen in nearby systems, persists out to z ∼ 1, with only marginal (∼1 σ ) evidence for evolution in the threshold entropy value itself. In contrast, we do not find a similar high- z analog for an entropy threshold for feedback, but instead measure a strong evolution in the fraction of radio-loud BCGs in high-entropy cores, decreasing with increasing redshift. This could imply that the cooling-feedback loop was not as tight in the past, or that some other fuel source like mergers are fueling the radio sources more often with increasing redshift, making the radio luminosity an increasingly unreliable proxy for radio jet power. We also find that our SZ-based sample is missing a small (∼4%) population of the most luminous radio sources ( ν L ν > 10 42 erg s −1 ), likely due to radio contamination suppressing the SZ signal with which these clusters are detected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multizone Modeling of Black Hole Accretion and Feedback in 3D GRMHD: Bridging Vast Spatial and Temporal Scales

Simulating accretion and feedback from the horizon scale of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) out to galactic scales is challenging because of the vast range of scales involved. Elaborating on H. Cho et al., we describe and test a "multizone" technique, which is designed to tackle this difficult problem in three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. While short-timescale variability should be interpreted with caution, the method is demonstrated to be well-suited for finding dynamical steady states over a wide dynamic range. We simulate accretion on a nonspinning SMBH ($a\ast$ = 0) using initial conditions and the external galactic potential from a large-scale galaxy simulation and achieve a steady state over eight decades in radius. As found in H. Cho et al., the density scales with radius as ρ ∝ r –1 inside the Bondi radius R B , which is located at R B = 2 × 10 5 r g (≈60 pc for M87), where r g is the gravitational radius of the SMBH; the plasma-β is ~ unity, indicating an extended magnetically arrested state; the mass accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is ≈1% of the analytical Bondi accretion rate ${\dot{M}}_{{\rm{B}}};$ and there is continuous energy feedback out to ≈100R B (or beyond > kpc) at a rate $\approx 0.02\dot{M}{c}^{2}$. Surprisingly, no ordered rotation in the external medium survives as the magnetized gas flows to smaller radii, and the final steady solution is very similar to when the exterior has no rotation. Using the multizone method, we simulate GRMHD accretion over a wide range of Bondi radii, R B ~ 10 2 –10 7 r g , and find that $\dot{M}/{\dot{M}}_{{B}}\approx {({R}_{{B}}/6\,{r}_{g})}^{-0.5}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energetic Nonthermal Electrons within the Above-the-looptop Regions in Solar Flares: Acceleration, Feedback, and Quasiperiodic Pulsations

Solar flares are among the most dramatic events in the solar system, releasing substantial magnetic energy and accelerating a large number of electrons to high energies. Notably, in certain events, the above-the-looptop region may contain a significant population of nonthermal electrons, both in number and energy. For the first time, we adopt a novel numerical method that combines magnetohydrodynamics with energetic particles incorporating feedback from nonthermal electrons to investigate electron acceleration and transport in solar flares. We find that a large fraction of energetic electrons are accelerated via the current sheet and termination shock regions. Most energetic electrons are concentrated in the above-the-looptop region, carrying a sizable amount of the released energy. We observe that greater feedback of nonthermal electrons leads to steeper energy spectra. The energy density of the nonthermal electrons oscillates due to the periodic impact of magnetic islands into the above-the-looptop region, which may help explain the observed quasiperiodic pulsations. Our simulations provide new insights into the origin of nonthermal electrons and associated emissions in the above-the-looptop region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗