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At least 271 records · Page 15

Refractory Issues Related to the Use of Hydrogen as An Alternative Fuel

With the increased interest and funding to investigate hydrogen as an alternative fuel to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, considerations may also be necessary to evaluate the effects of fuel substitutions on industrial processes and process vessels. One area that has not received significant attention is the effects on refractory ceramic lining systems when industrial furnaces are fired on hydrogen in place of or in addition to traditional fuels. Examples of changes in burner design and implementation when firing hydrogen can be found in the literature, but much less is documented regarding the effects on processes and process vessels. As such, this article attempts to present some of the issues encountered when substituting hydrogen as an alternative industrial fuel source and to highlight some examples of where this is occurring. Additionally, the possible ramifications of these issues on refractory ceramic lining systems are discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Fuel Stratification Influence on NO x Emission in a Premixed Axial Reacting Jet-in-Crossflow at High Pressure

Three reacting jet-in-crossflow (JiC) methane/air flames were numerically investigated in a lean axially staged combustor at a pressure of five atmospheres. A detailed chemistry Star-CCM+ computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used with 53 species considered and the result of turbulence-governed finite-rate modeling was validated with in-house experimental data. An optically accessible test section features three side windows, allowing local flow and flame analysis with particle image velocimetry (PIV) and CH* chemiluminescence as well as pressure, temperature, and species exit measurements. The research objective was to predict and verify NO x formation of the premixed 12.7 mm axial jet. Three headend temperature levels were investigated along with three premixed jets at lean (φ Jet = 0.75), near-stoichiometric (φ Jet = 1.07), and rich (φ Jet = 1.78) axial fuel line equivalence ratio. Based on the matching exit emission concentration, global emission benefits were investigated by adjustment of the fuel stratification. The perfectly premixed methane/air flames of this study were shown to ignite at the lee-side of the jet. For the elevated headend temperature level T = 1800 K, the flame extended beyond the windward jet trajectory and caused high axial NO production. For industry application, a firing temperature of 1920 K was achieved with a NO x optimized fuel split of 25%, combining a lean headend (φ Headend = 0.61) with a rich (φ Jet = 1.78) jet equivalence ratio. As a result, this operating point allowed minimization of the combustor residence time at temperatures above 1700 K as well as combustion in a compact flame at the jet lee-side along the counter rotating vortex pair.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the minimum post-burst energy required to function an exploding bridgewire detonator

The minimum energy required after bridge-burst to function a commercially available RP-1 exploding bridgewire detonator with a gold bridgewire was investigated using two capacitor discharge units (CDUs) making use of state-of-the-art on/off high-voltage high-current switches. Both switches are capable of shutting off the current flow in ≈100ns and the conduction time was varied systematically to limit the duration of electrical energy delivered from the CDU until a detonation go/no-go threshold was reached. It was found that the minimal extra electrical energy required for a soft-fire (a statistically marginal go) was approximately half that required for a hard-fire (a definite go). Furthermore, the measured energy required to function the RP-1 detonator from the 11.5 kV CDU was approximately 20 mJ greater than for the 600 V CDU, and it is postulated that this was due to arcing across the detonator terminals and an associated current shunt that was not efficient at depositing energy conducive to detonator functioning. Measurements of the bridgewire temperatures bursting in air showed that the maximum temperature reached was consistent (≈18kK) when sufficient energy was delivered that the detonator functioned (either soft- or hard-fire), but that the temperature for a sub-threshold bridgewire burst was significantly cooler at approximately 8 kK. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the intensity of the light emitted at burst scaled with deposited energy. A related finding is that the light emission from the bridgewire peaks some tens of nanoseconds after both peak voltage and peak electrical power.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Development of an Open-Source Life Cycle Baseline for Electricity Consumption in the United States - LCAXIX

This work was presented at the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment 2019 Conference (LCAXIX) in Tucson, AZ on September 25, 2019. The electricity and power generation sector in the United States (U.S.) is undergoing a period of rapid transformation via the adoption of natural gas-fired power plants, incorporation of renewable feedstocks, and phasing-out of older power-generation systems (e.g. legacy coal and nuclear). However, this historic shift in the supply/demand of electricity and diversification of power generation technologies is accompanied by resource consumption and emissions to land, water, and soil, and thus may have unintended environmental consequences. EPA, NETL, ANL, and NREL collaborated to develop an open source multifunctional life cycle model to quantify baseline life cycle impacts of U.S. electricity consumption. This presentation is intended to walk through the modeling assumptions, structure, and results for the released inventory.

Cooney, Gregory↗

Heavy Duty Natural Gas Single Cylinder Research Engine Installation, Commissioning, and Baseline Testing

Natural Gas (NG) Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) are a promising alternative to diesel engines for on-road heavy-duty applications to reduce greenhouse gas and harmful pollutant emissions. NG engines have not been widely adopted due to the lower thermal efficiency compared with diesel engine counterparts. To develop the base knowledge required to reach the desired efficiency, a Single Cylinder Engine (SCE) is the most effective platform to acquire reliable and repeatable data. A SCE test cell was developed using a Cummins 15-liter six-cylinder heavy-duty engine block modified to fire one cylinder (2.5-liter displacement). A Woodward Large Engine Control Module (LECM) is integrated to permit implementation of real-time advanced combustion control. Intake and exhaust characteristics, fuel composition, and exhaust gas recirculated substitution rate (EGR) are fully adjustable. A high-speed data acquisition system acquires in-cylinder, intake, and exhaust pressure for combustion analysis. The baseline testing shows reliable and consistent results for engine thermal efficiency, indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), and coefficient of variance of the IMEP over a wide range of operating conditions while achieving effective control of all engine control and operation variables. This test cell will be used to conduct a research program to develop new and innovative control algorithms and CFD optimized combustion chamber designs, allowing ultra-high efficiency and low emissions for NG ICE heavy-duty on-road applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Recent Changes to U.S. Coal Plant Operations and Current Compensation Practices

Over the last decade, the U.S. electric power sector has gone through one of the most dramatic changes in its existence. The combination of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale gas revolution and significant reduction in construction and operating costs for renewable resources, in part due to federal tax credits such as the production tax credit and investment tax credit mainly benefitting wind and solar, respectively, has resulted in a significant shift away from coal-fired generation, and instead towards natural gas and renewable generation. Furthermore, the operating profile of existing coal-fired electric generating units has changed significantly. As new natural gas combined cycle plants have become increasingly more efficient and cheaper to operate than older existing coal-fired power plants, coal units continue to lose baseload generation share and more frequently operate as load-following, or cycling, resources. These trends are of particular importance to state public utility commissions. Functioning as economic regulators, commissions oversee investments in a reliable, efficient system while balancing emissions goals, customer demands, and other policy objectives. Changes to coal plant operations as a result of increased competition from other fuel sources may have a bearing on system reliability and economics, and therefore constitute an important area for commissions to monitor.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Fine Ash-Bearing Particles as a Major Aerosol Component in Biomass Burning Smoke

Biomass burning (BB) events are occurring globally with increasing frequency, and their emissions are having more impacts on human health and climate. Large ash particles are recognized as a BB product with major influences on soil and water environments. However, fine-ash particles, which have diameters smaller than several microns and characteristic morphologies and compositions (mainly Ca and Mg carbonates), have not yet been explicitly considered as a major BB aerosol component either in field observations or climate models. This study measured BB aerosol samples using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and ion chromatography during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign. We show that significant amounts of fine ash-bearing particles are transported >100 km from their fire sources. Our environmental chamber experiments suggest that they can act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. We also found considerable amounts of fine ash-bearing particles in the TEM samples collected during previous campaigns (Biomass Burning Observation Project and Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations). These ash particles are commonly mixed with organic matter and make up ~8% and 5% of BB smoke by number and mass, respectively, in samples collected during the FIREX-AQ campaign. The measured ash-mass concentrations are approximately five times and six times greater than those of BB black carbon and potassium, respectively, scaling to an estimated global emission of 11.6 Tg yr -1 with a range of 8.8–16.3 Tg yr -1 . Better characterization and constraints on these fine ash-bearing particles will improve BB aerosol measurements and strengthen assessments of BB impacts on human health and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Hydrogen-Powered Locomotive Refueling

Hydrogen powered locomotives are being explored to reduce emissions in rail applications. The risks of operations like refueling should be understood to ensure safe environments for workers and members of the public. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using HyRAM+ to identify major drivers of risk and compare effects of system parameters on individual risk. The consequences of jet fires from full-bore leaks dominated the risk, compared to explosions or smaller leaks. Pipe size, leak detection capability, and leak frequencies of system components greatly affected risk while overpressure modeling parameters and ambient conditions had little effect. The effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) materials on individual risk were quantified by reducing the individual’s exposure time or absorbed thermal dose. PPE only showed a risk reduction in low-risk cases. This study highlighted target areas for risk mitigation, including leak detection equipment and component maintenance, and indicated that the minimal effects of other parameters on risk may not justify prescriptive requirements for refueling operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Permitting A Coal-Fired 4-MMt/yr CCS Project in North Dakota, USA

Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-16), October 23–27, 2022, Lyon, France. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE Program, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc. (Minnkota), conducted commercial-scale site characterization and permitting of two deep saline formations for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Captured as part of Minnkota’s Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage) project, these storage horizons would collectively and permanently store an annual average of 4 million metric tons (MMt) of CO 2 .

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

The decline of coal use for energy production provides an abundance of local feedstock for new innovative uses and value-added products. Expanding the U.S. coal-value chain to manufacture high-value carbon products can strengthen the nation’s energy and mineral security, enhance the U.S. national defense security, increase the United States’ economic prosperity, while achieving U.S. environmental objectives. The primary project goal is a relatively light-weight composite product with superior (or comparable) compressive strength. Both virgin and, where available, post-consumer recycled thermoplastic versions are tested for each thermoplastic species. A useful attribute of thermoplastics as binders is that they can be heated to their melting point, cooled, and reheated again without significant degradation. A key advantage of thermoset CBBs is that they require only mixing and molding. CBB advantages include low cost, availability, binding ability and processability. Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) weigh about 50% less than clay bricks and can be manufactured with an interlocking design to promote ease of use for the novice builder. CBB formulation is evaluated according to a design-of-experiments (DoE) approach. DoE variables are a) relative weight fractions of binder, b) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions, and c) additive percentage. Fabrication methods include hot-press molding and extrusion, the later being the most commercially viable. CBBs are tested for compressive strength, modulus of rupture (by flexure test) and water absorption per ASTM C67, with density determined by the Archimedes drainage method. Fractured interfaces are examined by SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy) to resolve fracture dynamics and interior microstructure uniformity. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) is used to compare plastic transition temperatures i.e., glass and melting temperatures to contrast virgin with post-consumer recycled thermoplastics and optimize their usage. These results are used in the DoE analysis to identify the binder and relative weight percentages for optimum strength, density, and porosity. Overall, CBBs possess strength comparable to clay-based bricks but are non-permeable and hydrophobic, and hence resistant to degradation by freeze-fracturing, corrosion, and efflorescence. The strongest composites have been made with the following thermoplastic binders (in order of strength): thermoset, high-density polyethylene crosslink resin, high-density polyethylene, nylon 6/6, and polypropylene. Results from a techno-economic analysis TEA show economy of scale for CBBs by modularization and reveal the binder as the cost driver for material costs. Ideally, the incorporation of post-consumer recycled thermoplastic will decrease material acquisition costs and increase product sustainability. Notably, CBBs do not require the high temperature calcination needed to produce cement, nor do they require firing in the 1600-2400 °F range for three days using natural gas, as do clay brick equivalents. Instead, CBBs are heated to a modest <600 °F according to the melt flow index of the thermoplastic binder. Existing anthracite mines can be expanded to produce CBBs to reduce aggregate transportation costs and emissions that exist for clay bricks. TEA reflects this reduced energy cost while a comparative CO2 emission analysis quantifies the reduced environmental footprint. The market survey identifies several commercialization opportunities, dependent upon the brick classification.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessing the levelized cost of energy in South Korea

This study evaluates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various energy technologies in the Republic of Korea (Korea) from 2023 to 2050, highlighting cost trajectories and potential crossovers among competing technologies. The analysis projects that, based on our set of assumptions, utility-scale photovoltaic systems achieve lower LCOEs than nuclear by 2030, while fixed offshore wind is expected to become cost-competitive with coal-fired generation around the same time. Floating offshore wind is projected to reach cost parity with coal in the late 2030s. Co-firing with natural gas and green hydrogen is identified as the highest-cost generation option due to high natural gas and green fuel costs and declining capacity utilization. This study further examines the potential for hybrid systems that integrate renewable energy with energy storage to serve as flexible, cost-effective, zero-emission alternatives to green hydrogen-based generation. Spatial LCOE assessments indicate that near-shore offshore wind sites may achieve lower costs despite modest capacity factors, contingent on site-specific factors such as grid integration and social acceptance. The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies are expected to experience continued cost declines, with solar photovoltaic becoming the most competitive energy source in Korea by 2030–2035. Incorporating social costs accelerates this shift from conventional alternatives.

Green hydrogen↗

Economic Case for Replacing High-Emitting Peaker Plants with Fuel Cells for Automotive Applications

The identification of clean and cost-effective solutions to replace high-emitting peaker plants and support a just transition is a challenge faced by utilities across the US today. However, falling costs of hydrogen production as well as the widespread availability of fuel cells for automotive applications have made them an attractive option for a zero-emission peak power supply. This study evaluates the techno-economics, operation, and environmental justice impacts of siting a peaker plant based on fuel cells for automotive applications through the lens of the existing Intermountain Power Plant, in order to supply peak power to the Los Angeles basin. Compared to the fossil fuel-fired peakers in operation today, the fuel cell peaker would be lower-cost up to a 17% capacity factor with Inflation Reduction Act incentives while also reducing air pollution in environmental justice communities. With corresponding transmission upgrades, the Intermountain site could host up to a 5 GW fuel cell peaker in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regulators’ Energy Transition Primer: Economic Impacts of the Energy Transition on Energy Communities, Environmental Justice Considerations, and Implications on Clean Energy Jobs

Applications of new technology, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, enabled the United States to significantly increase its production of oil and natural gas during the last decade—the “Shale Gas Revolution.” As natural gas began to dominate the market with abundant supply and low prices, coal production and consumption have declined. Concurrently, the competitiveness of renewable energy and energy storage has climbed sharply, and analysts expect to see continued reductions in fossil fuel use in the coming decades. Many of these changes have been driven by market forces (i.e., low-cost natural gas and renewables), but current and future policy decisions aimed at tackling climate change concerns and reducing greenhouse gas emissions will also shape the future of the energy sector. This transition to low-carbon fuels has created both opportunities for clean energy technologies and challenges for communities traditionally dependent on fossil fuel-related industries. The power sector’s ongoing shift away from coal has left many coal miners and coal-fired power plant employees unemployed and often unprepared for jobs in other industries, including growing clean energy fields. This primer focuses on the declining coal industry, impacts on communities and workers, opportunities to transition workers who have lost their jobs to clean energy and other related sectors (including hydrogen-oriented jobs), recruitment and training strategies, and available programs and actions to make the shift to a low-carbon economy in a fair, just, and equitable manner by engaging the resources of federal and state governments, as well as the private sector.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗

Optimization of switch diagnostics on the MAIZE linear transformer driver

The MAIZE Linear Transformer Driver is made of 40 capacitor-switch-capacitor `bricks' connected in parallel. When these 40 bricks are charged to 100-kV and then discharged synchronously, the MAIZE facility generates a 1-MA current pulse with a 100-ns rise time into a matched load impedance. Discharging each of the capacitors in a brick is carried out by the breakdown of a spark-gap switch, a process which results in the emission of light. Monitoring this output light with a fiber optic coupled to a photomultiplier tube (PMT) and an oscilloscope channel provides information on switch performance and timing jitter– whether a switch red early, late, or in phase with the other switches. However, monitoring each switch with a dedicated detector- oscilloscope channel can be problematic for facilities where the number of switches to be monitored (e.g., 40 on MAIZE) greatly exceeds the number of detector-oscilloscope channels available. The technique of using fibers to monitor light emission from switches can be optimized by treating a PMT as a binary digit or bit and using a combinatorial encoding scheme, where each switch is monitored by a unique combination of fiber- PMT-oscilloscope channels simultaneously. By observing the unique combination of ber-PMT-oscilloscope channels that are turned on, the pre-firing or late-firing of a single switch on MAIZE can be identified by as few as six PMT-oscilloscope channels. The number of PMT-oscilloscope channels, N , required to monitor X switches can be calculated by 2 N = X + 1, where the number '2' is selected because the PMT-oscilloscope acts as a bit. Here, we demonstrate the use of this diagnostic technique on MAIZE. In conclusion, we also present an analysis of how this technique could be scaled to monitor the tens of thousands of switches proposed for various next generation pulsed power facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗