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Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗

Advanced coal gasifier-fuel cell power plant systems design

Two advanced, high efficiency coal-fired power plants were designed, one utilizing a phosphoric acid fuel cell and one utilizing a molten carbonate fuel cell. Both incorporate a TRW Catalytic Hydrogen Process gasifier and regenerator. Both plants operate without an oxygen plant and without requiring water feed; they, instead, require makeup dolomite. Neither plant requires a shift converter; neither plant has heat exchangers operating above 1250 F. Both plants have attractive efficiencies and costs. While the molten carbonate version has a higher (52%) efficiency than the phosphoric acid version (48%), it also has a higher ($0.078/kWh versus $0.072/kWh) ten-year levelized cost of electricity. The phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant is probably feasible to build in the near term: questions about the TRW process need to be answered experimentally, such as weather it can operate on caking coals, and how effective the catalyzed carbon-dioxide acceptor will be at pilot scale, both in removing carbon dioxide and in removing sulfur from the gasifier.

Heller, M. E.↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Data Products for National Drought Monitor Decision Support

Drought effects are either direct or indirect depending on location, population, and regional economic vitality. Common direct effects of drought are reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity; increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat. Indirect impacts follow on the heels of direct impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. In the United States alone, drought is estimated to result in annual losses of between $6 - 8 billion. Recent sustained drought in the United States has made decision-makers aware of the impacts of climate change on society and environment. The eight major droughts that occurred in the United States between 1980 and 1999 accounted for the largest percentage of weather-related monetary losses. Monitoring drought and its impact that occurs at a variety of scales is an important government activity -- not only nationally but internationally as well. The NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center) and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) RMA (Risk Management Agency) have partnered together to develop a DM-DSS (Drought Monitoring Decision Support System). This monitoring system will be an interactive portal that will provide users the ability to visualize and assess drought at all levels. This candidate solution incorporates atmospherically corrected VIIRS data products, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and Ocean SST (sea surface temperature), and AMSR-E soil moisture data products into two NDMC vegetation indices -- VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) and VegOUT (Vegetation Outlook) -- which are then input into the DM-DSS.

Estep, Leland↗

Multi-spectral window radiance observations of Cirrus from satellite and aircraft, November 2, 1986 Project FIRE

High resolution infrared radiance spectra achieved from the NASA ER2 airborne HIS experiment are used to analyze the spectral emissivity properties of cirrus clouds within the 8 to 12 micron atmospheric window region. Observations show that the cirrus emissivity generally decreases with increasing wavenumber (i.e., decreasing wavelength) within this band. A very abrupt decrease in emissivity (increase in brightness temperature) exists between 930/cm (10.8 microns) and 1000/cm (10.0 microns), the magnitude of the change being associated with the cirrus optical thickness as observed by lidar. The HIS observations are consistent with theoretical calculations of the spectral absorption coefficient for ice. The HIS observations imply that cirrus clouds can be detected unambiguously from the difference in brightness temperatures observed within the 8.2 and 11.0 micron window regions of the HIRS sounding radiometer flying on the operational NOAA satellites. This ability is demonstrated using simultaneous 25 km resolution HIRS observations and 1 km resolution AVHRR imagery achieved from the NOAA-9 satellite. Finally, the cirrus cloud location estimates combined with the 6.7 micron channel moisture imagery portray the boundaries of the ice/vapor phase of the upper troposphere moisture. This phase distinction is crucial for infrared radiative transfer considerations for weather and climate models, since upper tropospheric water vapor has little effect on the Earth's outgoing radiation whereas cirrus clouds have a very large attenuating effect.

Smith, William L.↗

Winds and turbulence above San Nicolas Island during FIRE

Winds and turbulence above San Nicolas Island (SNI) were continuously monitored during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) with a Doppler sodar (1600 Hz) and an ultrahigh frequencies (UHF) (400 MHz) wind profiler. Individual profiles were logged from 1 through 19 July 1987 at 30 sec to 2 min intervals; preliminary processing of hourly averaged winds from 100 to 2300 m is complete. These wind profiles have been combined with intermittent radiosonde profiles to construct time-height sections of parameters such as the Richardson Number. Analysis now in progress includes interpretation of the sodar (C 2/T) and profiler (C 2/N, C 2/q) reflectivity profiles. These profiles are being combined with radiometric and ceilometer data for investigations of vertical transport and cloud base/top entrainment processes. Finally, by using the SNI data in conjunction with soundings made from the research vessel Pt. Sur, the relationship between changes in the SNI winds and mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather features is being investigated.

White, Allen B.↗

The Use of NASA near Real-time and Archived Satellite Data to Support Disaster Assessment

With support from a NASA's Applied Sciences Program, The Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has explored a variety of techniques for utilizing archived and near real‐time NASA satellite data to support disaster assessment activities. MODIS data from the NASA Land Atmosphere Near Real‐time Capability for EOS currently provides true color and other imagery for assessment and potential applications including, but not limited to, flooding, fires, and tornadoes. In May 2013, the SPoRT Center developed unique power outage composites using the VIIRS Day/Night Band to represent the first clear sky view of damage inflicted upon Moore and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma following the devastating EF‐5 tornado that occurred on May 20. Pre‐event imagery provided by the NASA funded Web‐Enabled Landsat Data project offer a basis of comparison for monitoring post-disaster recovery efforts. Techniques have also been developed to generate products from higher resolution imagery from the recently available International Space Station SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System instrument. Of paramount importance is to deliver these products to end users expeditiously and in formats compatible with Decision Support Systems (DSS). Delivery techniques include a Tile Map Service (TMS) and a Web Mapping Service (WMS). These mechanisms allow easy integration of satellite products into DSS's, including the National Weather Service's Damage Assessment Toolkit for use by personnel conducting damage surveys. This poster will present an overview of the developed techniques and products and compare the strengths and weaknesses of the TMS and WMS.

McGrath, Kevin M.↗

An Overview of the GEOS-5 Aerosol Reanalysis

GEOS-5 is the latest version of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) earth system model. GEOS-5 contains components for atmospheric circulation and composition (including data assimilation), ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and land surface processes. In addition to traditional meteorological parameters, GEOS-5 includes modules representing the atmospheric composition, most notably aerosols and tropospheric/stratospheric chemical constituents, taking explicit account of the impact of these constituents on the radiative processes of the atmosphere. MERRA is a NASA meteorological reanalysis for the satellite era (1979-present) using GEOS-5. This project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales. As a first step towards an integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA), the GMAO is extending MERRA with reanalyses for other components of the earth system: land, ocean, bio-geochemistry and atmospheric constituents. In this talk we will present results from the MERRA-driven aerosol reanalysis covering the Aqua period (2003-present). The assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS-5 involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a Neural Net scheme that translates MODIS radiances into AERONET calibrated AOD. These measurements are further quality controlled using an adaptive buddy check scheme, and assimilated using the Local Displacement Ensemble (LDE) methodology. For this reanalysis, GEOS-5 runs at a nominal 50km horizontal resolution with 72 vertical layers (top at approx. 8Skm). GEOS-5 is driven by daily biomass burning emissions derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. We will present a summary of our efforts to validate such dataset. The GEOS-5 assimilated aerosol fields are first validated by comparison to independent in-situ measurements (AERONET and PM2.5 surface concentrations). In order to asses aerosol absorption on a global scale, we perform a detailed radiative transfer calculation to simulate the UV aerosol index, comparing our results to OMI measurements. By simulating aerosol attenuated backscatter, we use CALIPSO measurements to evaluate the vertical structure of our aerosol estimates, in particular in regions where we have larger discrepancies with OMI. Finally, the consistency of our AOD estimates with estimates from MISR, MODIS/Deep Blue, OMI and PARASOL will be briefly discussed.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was conducted to study the impact of airborne lidar wind sounding on mesoscale weather forecast. A wind retrieval scheme, which interpolates wind data from a grid data system, simulates the retrieval of wind profile from a satellite lidar system. A mesoscale forecast system based on the PSU/NCAR MM5 model is developed and incorporated the assimilation of the retrieved line-of-sight wind. To avoid the "identical twin" problem, the NCEP reanalysis data is used as our reference "nature" atmosphere. The simulated space-based lidar wind observations were retrieved by interpolating the NCEP values to the observation locations. A modified dataset obtained by smoothing the NCEP dataset was used as the initial state whose forecast was sought to be improved by assimilating the retrieved lidar observations. Forecasts using wind profiles with various lidar instrument parameters has been conducted. The results show that to significantly improve the mesoscale forecast the satellite should fly near the storm center with large scanning radius. Increasing lidar firing rate also improves the forecast. Cloud cover and lack of aerosol degrade the quality of the lidar wind data and, subsequently, the forecast.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

Guidance, Navigation, and Control Performance for the GOES-R Spacecraft

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) is the first of the next generation geostationary weather satellites, scheduled for delivery in late 2015 and launch in early 2016. Relative to the current generation of GOES satellites, GOES-R represents a dramatic increase in Earth and solar weather observation capabilities, with 4 times the resolution, 5 times the observation rate, and 3 times the number of spectral bands for Earth observations. GOES-R will also provide unprecedented availability, with less than 120 minutes per year of lost observation time. The Guidance Navigation & Control (GN&C) design requirements to achieve these expanded capabilities are extremely demanding. This paper first presents the pointing control, pointing stability, attitude knowledge, and orbit knowledge requirements necessary to realize the ambitious Image Navigation and Registration (INR) objectives of GOES-R. Because the GOES-R suite of instruments is sensitive to disturbances over a broad spectral range, a high fidelity simulation of the vehicle has been created with modal content over 500 Hz to assess the pointing stability requirements. Simulation results are presented showing acceleration, shock response spectrum (SRS), and line of sight responses for various disturbances from 0 Hz to 512 Hz. These disturbances include gimbal motion, reaction wheel disturbances, thruster firings for station keeping and momentum management, and internal instrument disturbances. Simulation results demonstrate excellent performance relative to the pointing and pointing stability requirements, with line of sight jitter of the isolated instrument platform of approximately 1 micro-rad. Low frequency motion of the isolated instrument platform is internally compensated within the primary instrument. Attitude knowledge and rate are provided directly to the instrument with an accuracy defined by the Integrated Rate Error (IRE) requirements. The allowable IRE ranges from 1 to 18.5 micro-rad, depending upon the time window of interest. The final piece of the INR performance is orbit knowledge. Extremely accurate orbital position is achieved by GPS navigation at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). Performance results are shown demonstrating compliance with the 50 to 75 m orbit position accuracy requirements of GOES-R, including during station-keeping and momentum management maneuvers. As shown in this paper, the GN&C performance for the GOES-R series of spacecraft supports the challenging mission objectives of the next generation GEO Earth-observation satellites.

Guidance↗

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhanced Monitoring and Forecasting of South Asian Air Quality Episodes with Multi-Sensor Satellite Products and Dispersion Modeling

Air pollution and particulates represent a serious environmental, public health, and overarching societal concern in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of south-central Asia, especially during the boreal winter and spring months. Frequent contributors to poor air quality of the region include dust and particulate matter transport from the Middle East region and western India, persistent nocturnal fog and smog during the stable dry monsoon months, and biomass burning during the pre-monsoon months of boreal spring. Nocturnal and multi-day persistent stable fog and smog events can occur during the stable conditions of the dry monsoon months that lead to hazardous visibility reductions (e.g., at major airports such as Delhi, India)and poor air quality, particularly in urban corridors.Our project goal is therefore to design and implement a robust air quality and chemistry observation and modeling system using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. This system effectively assimilates aerosol and trace gas retrievals from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites to advance the monitoring and prediction capabilities of air quality and visibility reductions throughout the HKH region. For this presentation, we highlight several[multi-spectral] geostationary satellite products and dispersion modeling capabilities being developed and implemented for improved situational awareness and forecasting of air quality episodes.Launched in December 2018, the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) aboard the Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A (GEO-KOMPSAT-2A, or GK2A) provides 16 channels of multi-spectral information similar to the U.S. GOES-16/17 satellites. Proven community recipes for generating multi-spectral Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite products to detect specific meteorological phenomena are applied to the AMI data for the HKH region. We implemented four such RGB products consisting of truecolor with Rayleigh correction to aid in smoke detection; dust RGB for monitoring larger particulate matter; nighttime microphysics for fog/smog detection;and natural color fire RGB and the shortwave 3.8 micron channel for fire hot-spot detection.We additionally configured HYSPLIT for dust/sand dispersion and concentration forecasts over HKH. The HYSPLIT dispersion simulations are initially being conducted with two different methodologies: (1) dust/sand lofting based on initializing plume releases from visual inspection of the dust RGB imagery; and (2) dust/sand release and dispersion using the internal HYSPLIT algorithm that determines lofting from input wind speeds and prescribed land use. The goal is to develop a near real-time HYSPLIT modeling solution for routinely simulating the transport and dispersion of dust plumes across the HKH region. This presentation illustrates these products and capabilities for various use cases from the 2019 to 2021 period, highlighting a particularly unhealthy episode during late March 2021 across Nepal.

Remote Sensing↗

Hyperspectral Microwave Atmospheric Sounder (HyMAS) Architecture and Design Accommodations

The Hyperspectral Microwave Atmospheric Sounder (HyMAS) is being developed at Lincoln Laboratories and accommodated by the Goddard Space Flight Center for a flight opportunity on a NASA research aircraft. The term "hyperspectral microwave" is used to indicate an all-weather sounding that performs equivalent to hyperspectral infrared sounders in clear air with vertical resolution of approximately 1 km. Deploying the HyMAS equipped scanhead with the existing Conical Scanning Microwave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) shortens the path to a flight demonstration. Hyperspectral microwave is achieved through the use of independent RF antennas that sample the volume of the Earth s atmosphere through various levels of frequencies, thereby producing a set of dense, spaced vertical weighting functions. The simulations proposed for HyMAS 118/183-GHz system should yield surface precipitation rate and water path retrievals for small hail, soft hail, or snow pellets, snow, rainwater, etc. with accuracies comparable to those of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder. Further improvements in retrieval methodology (for example, polarization exploitation) are expected. The CoSMIR instrument is a packaging concept re-used on HyMAS to ease the integration features of the scanhead. The HyMAS scanhead will include an ultra-compact Intermediate Frequency Processor (IFP) module that is mounted inside the door to improve thermal management. The IFP is fabricated with materials made of Low-Temperature Co-fired Ceramic (LTCC) technology integrated with detectors, amplifiers, A/D conversion and data aggregation. The IFP will put out 52 channels of 16 bit data comprised of 4-9 channel data streams for temperature profiles and 2-8 channel streams for water vapor. With the limited volume of the existing CoSMIR scanhead and new HyMAS front end components, the HyMAS team at Goddard began preliminary layout work inside the new drum. Importing and re-using models of the shell, the scan head computer, and the slip rings developed for CoSMIR was the starting point. The next step was to modify the antenna faceplate to accommodate the dimensions of the three dual polarization Gaussian Optics Antenna (GOA) assemblies. Two mechanical concepts for the core technology, the hyperspectral IFP, were captured in a design tradeoff. Connector models considered minimum bend radii for the IFP analog connectors. Hyperspectral imaging is accomplished by strategically using a short wavelength intermediate frequency of 18-29 GHz, and thus reducing the size of components in the connection of the front end to the IFP. The SMK (2.92mm) Series connector will lay near the hinge line to minimize its flexing. The digital output of the IFP will use a Serial Peripheral Interface (SPI) that must be accommodated by the scan head computer. To make that computer more reliable, maintainable, and forward compatible with the 52 HyMAS channels, a testbed of the scan head, calibration, and archive computers and the PIC24 microprocessor that resides on the IFP is in development. The computers will be programmed using a new framework application called Interoperable Remote Component (IRC). This software allows flexibility to program computers that communicate with each other and can adapt easily to the emerging HyMAS requirements for data format, algorithms, and graphical user interface (GUI). It is expected that the CoSMIR instrument will cut over to the IRC after it is adapted on an updated CoSMIR testbed.

Hilliard, Lawrence↗

A Microphone Phased Array for Launch Acoustics Application

A new, portable, phased array of microphones is built at NASA Ames Research Center specifically for the harsh environment encountered in launch pads of rocket vehicles. It uses 70 rugged, piezo-electric, dynamic pressure sensors optimally distributed on a 10.5ft diameter open frame dome structure. The open frame is light yet robust to sustain the high wind load of typical seaside launch pads, and the blast and acoustic loads from the launch. A 200-ft long cable bundle carries the microphone signals to a weather-protected electronic cabinet containing the data acquisition system, computers, and other equipment. The array is equipped with an infra-red camera and a visible wavelength camera for imaging the launch site. The beamformed noise maps will be superimposed on the video footages collected by the cameras for correct identification of the noise sources. The array is tested with very loud noise sources to determine the beamforming ability. Multiple mathematical models, such as the conventional beamforming, orthogonal-functional beamforming, spectral element method etc. are used to determine the minimum spatial resolution of the sound sources that can be measured at different frequencies. Additionally, the array hardware is being tested for different environmental conditions and electro-magnetic compliance. The goal is to use the array for NASA’s Artemis/SLS vehicle that will be launched from a newly built Mobile Launch platform and a modified launch pad. Data from a couple of validation tests will be presented in this paper. The first test involves an outdoor setup where the array was placed on a crane at several different heights and distances from a pair of very loud noise sources. The second test from the static firing of the RS25 engines in an outdoor test stand.

Acoustics↗

Bio-fuel effects and seasonal fuel property variations related to abnormal combustion occurrences observed in the field

Since 2015, the automotive industry has regularly observed sharp increases in customer complaints of poor driveability and increased warranty claims during the months of September and October. These persistent seasonal complaint increases have been tracked to occur from increased abnormal combustion events that coincide with the seasonal transition from summer to winter fuel volatility, beginning on September 15th annually. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline during this seasonal transition has been found to be the primary property attributed to this annual issue. It’s hypothesized that an increase in volatile butanes and pentanes from advanced petroleum recovery techniques and hydrofracking production has hastened the transition from summer to winter fuel volatility in the marketplace, rather than the gradual increase of the RVP over time as historically intended. At worst, mid-winter fuel, with an RVP ranging from 12 to 16 psi, depending on location in the U.S., enters the market while ambient temperatures can still be above average for the winter season. This combination of high volatility fuel with unseasonably warm weather will increase fuel system flash boiling, injector spray cavitation, and spray collapse inside the engine’s combustion chamber, ultimately linking fuel property variations to abnormal engine combustion processes. This CRADA program will investigate these known knowledge gaps by coupling with two national laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to employ both unique tools and expertise throughout the industry to provide the insight, knowledge, and data critical to understand the observed interactions. Overall findings of this work are that fuel wall retention increased SPI proportionally, and fuels with an increased distillation (i.e. energy fraction) above the wall temperature increased fuel retention. Likewise fuels with increased enthalpy of vaporization (HoV) increased fuel retention proportional to the temperature reduction from the HoV (~13K reduction in this work). Thus, fuel with increased HoV and increased fuel distillation above the linear temperature also exhibited increased SPI rates. Fuel with high RVP did exhibit increased fuel spray collapse form spray imaging measurements, but in SPI testing the high volatility of these fuels at the tested conditions did not necessarily increase SPI rates despite exhibiting increased spray collapse in injector imaging and increased spray-wall impingement measured in fired engine testing. It was also found that spray imaging showed collapse was possible at throttled conditions, but this was not relevant to high boost pressures relevant to SPI conditions, however, under transient load and or speed encountered in real-world operation fuel spray collapse could affect fuel retention and real-world SPI that were not probed in the automated high load test sequence of this work.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Current and Future Applications of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery for Weather Analysis and Forecasting Applications

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low ]Earth orbits. The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA fs Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channels available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT ]9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic ]scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES ]R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar ]Orbiting Partnership (S ]NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross ]track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites. New applications from VIIRS extend multispectral composites available from MODIS and SEVIRI while adding new capabilities through incorporation of additional CrIS channels or information from the Near Constant Contrast or gDay ]Night Band h, which provides moonlit reflectance from clouds and detection of fires or city lights. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and recent applications within the operational forecasting environment

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes and Mesoscale Convective Systems

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated With the Free Tropospheric Biomass Burning Plume Over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6–7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume–vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ∼5–6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (∼6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗