Adequacy evaluation of smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods for simulating the external-flooding scenario
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Wet conditions across the US Midwest have forced farmers to delay planting of corn into June 2019, leading to a four-year low in projected corn yields. This event is part of a broader pattern that extends further back in history and is expected to worsen in future (Naz et al. 2016), raising concerns about the future sustainability of the corn-based economy. In this commentary, we suggest that deep-rooted perennial biomass crops will have considerable advantages for farmers under future climate once markets for cellulosic biofuels mature. Beyond climate-resilient cropping systems, research is suggesting that plants tolerant of wet conditions could benefit wetland conservation efforts while producing sustainable biomass for energy (Avellan et al. 2017, Melts et al. 2019).
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Focal Areas: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (3)Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed & simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI
This study models the transition of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) fields to dedicated carbon storage using a generalized reservoir model informed by real field data, SACROC. Through scenario-based simulations, the work evaluates how reservoir depletion levels, boundary conditions, fluid properties, and domain size affect pressure buildup, CO 2 plume migration, and long-term containment performance. The results inform practices for repurposing oil fields into reliable CO 2 storage sites.
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In the summer of 2021, operations personnel requested maintenance personnel to fill a wet vacuum (Wetvac) seal water tank in a plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). After the filling was finished, the fill valve of the Wetvac seal water tank was left open and a ‘dead-man’ valve on an isolation line failed to close properly. After a series of other failures, the water exited the glovebox and contaminated three rooms of the first floor of the facility and an underlying area in the basement. A retrospective analysis of this event determined that there was no risk of a criticality due to the inherent design features of the ventilation system. This paper will explain the driving factors behind how this event was able to happen, as well as some of the major lessons learned that can be universally applied to other nuclear facilities. One of the main causes of the event was the delegation of work to maintenance personnel that were not qualified for the work being asked of them. Additionally, there was a lack of coordination between criticality safety engineers and facility operations equipment owners regarding equipment and connections present on the seal water tanks for the Wetvac, specifically the presence of overflow drain lines. The respective criticality safety evaluation credited an overflow drain line being present on the seal water tanks that was later found to have not been present. Lastly, there are lessons to be learned regarding equipment configuration and designing systems with safety in mind.
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Abstract Climate variability affects sea levels as certain climate modes can accelerate or decelerate the rising sea level trend, but subseasonal variability of coastal sea levels is underexplored. This study is the first to investigate how remote tropical forcing from the MJO and ENSO impact subseasonal U.S. coastal sea level variability. Here, composite analyses using tide gauge data from six coastal regions along the U.S. East and West Coasts reveal influences on sea level anomalies from both the MJO and ENSO. Tropical MJO deep convection forces a signal that results in U.S. coastal sea level anomalies that vary based on MJO phase. Further, ENSO is shown to modulate both the MJO sea level response and background state of the teleconnections. The sea level anomalies can be significantly enhanced or weakened by the MJO-associated anomaly along the East Coast due to constructive or destructive interference with the ENSO-associated anomaly, respectively. The West Coast anomaly is found to be dominated by ENSO. We examine physical mechanisms by which MJO and ENSO teleconnections impact coastal sea levels and find consistent relationships between low-level winds and sea level pressure that are spatially varying drivers of the variability. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts. Significance Statement Coastal flooding due to sea level rise is increasingly threatening communities, but natural fluctuations of coastal sea levels can exacerbate the human-caused sea level rise trend. This study assesses the role of tropical influences on coastal subseasonal (2 weeks–3 months) sea level heights. Further, we explore the mechanisms responsible, particularly for constructive interference of signals contributing to coastal flooding events. Subseasonal signals amplify or suppress the lower-frequency signals, resulting in higher or lower sea level heights than those expected from known climate modes (e.g., ENSO). Low-level onshore winds and reduced sea level pressure connected to the tropical phenomena are shown to be indicators of increased U.S. coastal sea levels, and vice versa. Two case studies reveal how MJO and ENSO teleconnection interference played a role in notable coastal flooding events. Much of the focus on sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, but on shorter time scales, we find subseasonal climate variability has the potential to exacerbate the regional coastal flooding impacts.
Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.