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NASA NTRS2006

Derivation of Improved Surface and TOA Broadband Fluxes Using CERES-derived Narrowband-to-Broadband Coefficients

Satellites can provide global coverage of a number of climatically important radiative parameters, including broadband (BB) shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. These parameters can be estimated from narrowband (NB) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data, but their accuracy is highly dependent on the validity of the narrowband-to-broadband (NB-BB) conversion formulas that are used to convert the NB fluxes to broadband values. The formula coefficients have historically been derived by regressing matched polarorbiting satellite BB fluxes or radiances with their NB counterparts from GOES (e.g., Minnis et al., 1984). More recently, the coefficients have been based on matched Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and GOES-6 data (Minnis and Smith, 1998). The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy Budget (CERES see Wielicki et al. 1998)) project has recently developed much improved Angular Distribution Models (ADM; Loeb et al., 2003) and has higher resolution data compared to ERBE. A limited set of coefficients was also derived from matched GOES-8 and CERES data taken on Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (Chakrapani et al., 2003; Doelling et al., 2003). The NB-BB coefficients derived from CERES and the GOES suite should yield more accurate BB fluxes than from ERBE, but are limited spatially and seasonally. With CERES data taken from Terra and Aqua, it is now possible to derive more reliable NB-BB coefficients for any given area. Better TOA fluxes should translate to improved surface radiation fluxes derived using various algorithms. As part of an ongoing effort to provide accurate BB flux estimates for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, this paper documents the derivation of new NB-BB coefficients for the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain and for the Darwin region of the Tropical Western Pacific (DTWP) domain.

Khaiyer, Mandana M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Experimental and Numerical Characterization of Transient Insertion of Heat Flux Gages in a Cylindrical Black Body Cavity at 1100 C

Initial transient thermal models have been developed to simulate a heat flux gage calibration process capable of generating high heat flux levels of interest to reciprocating and gas turbine engine industries as well as the aerospace industry. These transient models are based on existing, experimentally validated, steady state models of the cylindrical blackbody calibration system. The steady state models were modified to include insertion of a heat flux gage into the hot zone of the calibration system and time varying electrical current passing through the resistance heated blackbody. Heat fluxes computed using the initial transient models were compared to experimental measurements. The calculated and measured transient heat fluxes were within 5% indicating that the major physical phenomena in the transient calibration had been captured by the models. The predicted and measured transient heat fluxes were also compared at two different gage insertion depths. These results indicated that there is an optimum insertion position which maximizes heat flux and minimizes cavity disturbance.

Abdelmessih, A. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Does the Blazar Gamma-ray Spectrum Harden with Increasing Flux? - Analysis of Nine Years of EGRET Data

The Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) discovered gamma-ray emission from more than 67 blazars during its nine-year lifetime. We conducted an exhaustive search of the EGRET archives and selected all the blazars that were observed multiple times and were bright enough to enable a spectral analysis using standard powerlaw models. The sample consists of 18 flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), 6 low-frequency-peaked BL Lacs (LBLs) and 2 high-frequency-peaked BL Lacs (HBLs). We do not detect any clear pattern in'the variation of spectral index with flux. Some of the blazars do not show any statistical evidence for spectral variability. The spectrum hardens with increasing flux in a few cases. There is also evidence for a flux-hardness anticorrelation at lo\v fluxes in five blazars. The well observed blazars (3C 279,3C 273, PKS 0528-i-134, PKS 1622-297, PKS 0208- 512) do not show any overall trend in the long-term spectral dependence on flux, but the sample shows a mixture of hard and soft states. We observed spectral hysteresis at weekly timescales in all the three FSRQs for which data from flares lasting for 3 approx. 4 weeks were available. All three sources show a counterclockwise rotation despite the widely different flux profiles. Hysteresis in the spectral index vs. flux space has never been observed in FSRQs in gamma-rays at weekly timescales. itre analyze the observed spectral behavior in the context of various inverse-Compton mechanisms believed to be responsible for emission in the EGRET energy range. Our analysis uses the EGRET skymaps that were regenerated to include the changes in performance during the mission.

Nandikotkur, Giridhar↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux as Seen from Passive Microwave Satellite Algorithms

Ocean surface turbulent fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Deriving physically-based latent and sensible heat fluxes from satellite is dependent on inferences of near surface moisture and temperature from coarser layer retrievals or satellite radiances. Uncertainties in these "retrievals" propagate through bulk aerodynamic algorithms, interacting as well with error properties of surface wind speed, also provided by satellite. By systematically evaluating an array of passive microwave satellite algorithms, the SEAFLUX project is providing improved understanding of these errors and finding pathways for reducing or eliminating them. In this study we focus on evaluating the interannual variability of several passive microwave-based estimates of latent heat flux starting from monthly mean gridded data. The algorithms considered range from those based essentially on SSM/I (e.g. HOAPS) to newer approaches that consider additional moisture information from SSM/T-2 or AMSU-B and lower tropospheric temperature data from AMSU-A. On interannual scales, variability arising from ENSO events and time-lagged responses of ocean turbulent and radiative fluxes in other ocean basins (as well as the extratropical Pacific) is widely recognized, but still not well quantified. Locally, these flux anomalies are of order 10-20 W/sq m and present a relevant "target" with which to verify algorithm performance in a climate context. On decadal time scales there is some evidence from reanalyses and remotely-sensed fluxes alike that tropical ocean-averaged latent heat fluxes have increased 5-10 W/sq m since the early 1990s. However, significant uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Our work addresses the origin of these uncertainties and provides statistics on time series of tropical ocean averages, regional space / time correlation analysis, and separation of contributions by variations in wind and near surface humidity deficit. Comparison to variations in reanalysis data sets is also provided for reference.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Preliminary Study of CO2 Flux Measurements by Lidar

A mechanistic understanding of the global carbon cycle requires quantification of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes at regional scales. In this paper, we analyze the potential of a Doppler DIAL system to make flux measurements of atmospheric CO2 using the eddy-covariance and boundary layer budget methods and present results from a ground based experiment. The goal of this study is to put CO2 flux point measurements in a mesoscale context. In June 2007, a field experiment combining a 2-m Doppler Heterodyne Differential Absorption Lidar (HDIAL) and in-situ sensors of a 447-m tall tower (WLEF) took place in Wisconsin. The HDIAL measures simultaneously: 1) CO2 mixing ratio, 2) atmosphere structure via aerosol backscatter and 3) radial velocity. We demonstrate how to synthesize these data into regional flux estimates. Lidar-inferred fluxes are compared with eddy-covariance fluxes obtained in-situ at 396m AGL from the tower. In cases where the lidar was not yet able to measure the fluxes with acceptable precision, we discuss possible modifications to improve system performance.

Gibert, Fabien↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Spectrally Resolved Flux Derived from Collocated AIRS and CERES Observations and its Application in Model Validation: Clear-Sky Over the Tropic Oceans - Part I

Spectrally resolved outgoing IR flux, the integrand of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has its unique value in evaluating model simulations. Here we describe an algorithm of deriving such clear-sky outgoing spectral flux through the whole IR region from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Clouds & the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements over the tropical oceans. Based on the scene types and corresponding angular distribution models (ADMs) used in the CERES Single Satellite Footprint (SSF) dataset, spectrally-dependent ADMs are developed and used to estimate the spectral flux at each AIRS channel. A multivariate linear prediction scheme is then used to estimate spectral fluxes at frequencies not covered by the AIRS instrument. The whole algorithm is validated using synthetic spectra as well as the CERES OLR measurements. Using the GFDL AM2 model simulation as a case study, the application of the derived clear-sky outgoing spectral flux in model evaluation is illustrated. By comparing the observed and simulated spectral flux in 2004, compensating errors in the simulated OLR from different absorption bands can be revealed, so does the errors from frequencies within a given absorption band. Discrepancies between the simulated and observed spatial distributions and seasonal evolutions of the spectral fluxes at different spectral ranges are further discussed. The methodology described in this study can be applied to other surface types as well as cloudy-sky observations and corresponding model evaluations.

Huang, Xianglei↗
NASA NTRS2009

2D and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta=1 level (i.e., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a low-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗
NASA NTRS2009

20 and 3D Numerical Simulations of Flux Cancellation

Cancellation of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere and chromosphere has been linked observationally and theoretically to a broad range of solar activity, from filament channel formation to CME initiation. Because this phenomenon is typically measured at only a single layer in the atmosphere, in the radial (line of sight) component of the magnetic field, the actual processes behind this observational signature are ambiguous. It is clear that reconnection is involved in some way, but the location of the reconnection sites and associated connectivity changes remain uncertain in most cases. We are using numerical modeling to demystify flux cancellation, beginning with the simplest possible configuration: a subphotospheric Lundquist flux tube surrounded by a potential field, immersed in a gravitationally stratified atmosphere, spanning many orders of magnitude in plasma beta. In this system, cancellation is driven slowly by a 2-cell circulation pattern imposed in the convection zone, such that the tops of the cells are located around the beta= 1 level (Le., the photosphere) and the flows converge and form a downdraft at the polarity inversion line; note however that no flow is imposed along the neutral line. We will present the results of 2D and 3D MHD-AMR simulations of flux cancellation, in which the flux at the photosphere begins in either an unsheared or sheared state. In all cases, a lOW-lying flux rope is formed by reconnection at the polarity inversion line within a few thousand seconds. The flux rope remains stable and does not rise, however, in contrast to models which do not include the presence of significant mass loading.

Karpen, Judith T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Gas Flux and Density Surrounding a Cylindrical Aperture in the Free Molecular Flow Regime

The equations for rigorously calculating the particle flux and density surrounding a cylindrical aperture in the free molecular flow regime are developed and presented. The fundamental equations for particle flux and density from a reservoir and a diffusely reflecting surface will initially be developed. Assumptions will include a Maxwell-Boltzmann speed distribution, equal particle and wall temperatures, and a linear flux distribution along the cylindrical aperture walls. With this information, the equations for axial flux and density surrounding a cylindrical aperture will be developed. The cylindrical aperture will be divided into multiple volumes and regions to rigorously determine the surrounding axial flux and density, and appropriate limits of integration will be determined. The results of these equations will then be evaluated. The linear wall flux distribution assumption will be assessed. The axial flux and density surrounding a cylindrical aperture with a thickness-to-radius ratio of 1.25 will be presented. Finally, the equations determined in this study will be verified using multiple methods.

Soulas, George C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

On the Relationship Between High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Radiation Belt Electron Fluxes

Both past and recent research results indicate that solar wind speed has a close connection to radiation belt electron fluxes [e.g., Paulikas and Blake, 1979; Reeves et aI., 2011]: a higher solar wind speed is often associated with a higher level of radiation electron fluxes. But the relationship can be very complex [Reeves et aI., 2011]. The study presented here provides further corroboration of this viewpoint by emphasizing the importance of a global perspective and time history. We find that all the events during years 2010 and 2011 where the >0.8 MeV integral electron flux exceeds 10(exp 5) particles/sq cm/sr/s (pfu) at GEO orbit are associated with the high speed streams (HSS) following the onset of the Stream Interaction Region (SIR), with most of them belonging to the long-lasting Corotating Interaction Region (CIR). Our preliminary results indicate that during HSS events, a maximum speed of 700 km/s and above is a sufficient but not necessary condition for the > 0.8 MeV electron flux to reach 10(exp 5) pfu. But in the exception cases of HSS events where the electron flux level exceeds the 10(exp 5) pfu value but the maximum solar wind speed is less than 700 km/s, a prior impact can be noted either from a CME or a transient SIR within 3-4 days before the arrival of the HSS - stressing the importance of time history. Through superposed epoch analysis and studies providing comparisons with the CME events and the HSS events where the flux level fails to reach the 10(exp 5) pfu, we will present the quantitative assessment of behaviors and relationships of various quantities, such as the time it takes to reach the flux threshold value from the stream interface and its dependence on different physical parameters (e.g., duration of the HSS event, its maximum or average of the solar wind speed, IMF Bz, Kp). The ultimate goal is to apply what is derived to space weather forecasting.

Zheng, Yihua↗
NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Voyager Observed High-Energy Electron Fluxes in the Heliosheath Using MHD Simulations

The Voyager spacecraft (V1 and V2) observed electrons of 6-14 MeV in the heliosheath which showed several incidences of flux variation relative to a background of gradually increasing flux with distance from the Sun. The increasing flux of background electrons is thought to result from inward radial diffusion. We compare the temporal electron flux variation with dynamical phenomena in the heliosheath that are obtained from our MHD simulations. Because our simulation is based on V2 observed plasma data before V2 crossed the termination shock, this analysis is effective up to late 2008, i.e., about a year after the V2-crossing, during which disturbances, driven prior to the crossing time, survived in the heliosheath. Several electron flux variations correspond to times directly associated with interplanetary shock events. One noteworthy example corresponds to various times associated with the March 2006 interplanetary shock, these being the collision with the termination shock, the passage past the V1 spacecraft, and the collision with the region near the heliopause, as identified by W.R. Webber et al. for proton/helium of 7-200 MeV. Our simulations indicate that all other electron flux variations, except one, correspond well to the times when a shock-driven magneto-sonic pulse and its reflection in the heliosheath either passed across V1/V2, or collided with the termination shock or with the plasma sheet near the heliopause. This result suggests that variation in the electron flux should be due to either direct or indirect effects of magnetosonic pulses in the heliosheath driven by interplanetary shocks

Washimi, Haruichi↗
NASA NTRS2011

Overview of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project

NASA's space-based observations of physical, chemical and biological parameters in the Earth System along with state-of-the-art modeling capabilities provide unique capabilities for analyses of the carbon cycle. The Carbon Monitoring System is developing an exploratory framework for detecting carbon in the environment and its changes, with a view towards contributing to national and international monitoring activities. The Flux-Pilot Project aims to provide a unified view of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, using observation-constrained models. Central to the project is the application of NASA's satellite observations (especially MODIS), the ACOS retrievals of the JAXA-GOSAT observations, and the "MERRA" meteorological reanalysis produced with GEOS-S. With a primary objective of estimating uncertainty in computed fluxes, two land- and two ocean-systems are run for 2009-2010 and compared with existing flux estimates. An transport model is used to evaluate simulated CO2 concentrations with in-situ and space-based observations, in order to assess the realism of the fluxes and how uncertainties in fluxes propagate into atmospheric concentrations that can be more readily evaluated. Finally, the atmospheric partial CO2 columns observed from space are inverted to give new estimates of surface fluxes, which are evaluated using the bottom-up estimates and independent datasets. The focus of this presentation will be on the science goals and current achievements of the pilot project, with emphasis on how policy-relevant questions help focus the scientific direction. Examples include the issue of what spatio-temporal resolution of fluxes can be detected from polar-orbiting satellites and whether it is possible to use space-based observations to separate contributions to atmospheric concentrations of (say) fossil-fuel and biological activity

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2012

Moisture Fluxes Derived from EOS Aqua Satellite Data for the North Water Polynya Over 2003-2009

Satellite data were applied to calculate the moisture flux from the North Water polynya during a series of events spanning 2003-2009. The fluxes were calculated using bulk aerodynamic formulas with the stability effects according to the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. Input parameters were taken from three sources: air relative humidity, air temperature, and surface temperature from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua satellite, sea ice concentration from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E, also onboard Aqua), and wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show the progression of the moisture fluxes from the polynya during each event, as well as their atmospheric effects after the polynya has closed up. These results were compared to results from studies on other polynyas, and fall within one standard deviation of the moisture flux estimates from these studies. Although the estimated moisture fluxes over the entire study region from AIRS are smaller in magnitude than ERA-Interim, they are more accurate due to improved temperature and relative humidity profiles and ice concentration estimates over the polynya. Error estimates were calculated to be 5.56 x10(exp -3) g/sq. m/ s, only 25% of the total moisture flux, thus suggesting that AIRS and AMSR-E can be used with confidence to study smaller scale features in the Arctic sea ice pack and can capture their atmospheric effects. These findings bode well for larger-scale studies of moisture fluxes over the entire Arctic Ocean and the thinning ice pack.

Boisvert, Linette N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Consistency of CERES Radiances and Fluxes from Aqua and Suomi-NPP

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on board Terra, Aqua, and Suomi-NPP have been providing data products critical to advancing our understanding of the effects of clouds and aerosols on radiative energy within the Earth-atmosphere system. The CERES instrument consists of a threechannel broadband scanning radiometer. The scanning radiometer measures radiances in shortwave (SW, 0.3-5 micron), window (WN, 8-12 micron), and total (0.3-200 micron) channels. The longwave (LW) component is derived as the difference between total and SW channels. These measured radiances at a given sun-Earthsatellite geometry are converted to outgoing reflected solar and emitted thermal TOA radiative fluxes by using CERES scene-type dependent angular distribution models (ADMs). The CERES instruments must remain radiometrically stable and correctly inter-calibrated to accurately capture changes in Earth"s radiation budget from interannual to decadal timescales. This presentation will focus on comparisons between collocated radiance measurements from CERES instruments on Aqua and on Suomi-NPP. As we do not have a set of ADMs that is constructed specifically for the CERES instrument on Suomi-NPP, CERES Aqua ADMs are used to invert fluxes from radiance measurements on Suomi-NPP. But the CERES Aqua footprint size is smaller than the CERES Suomi-NPP footprint size and the scene identifications provided by MODIS and VIIRS can also be different from each other. Will using Aqua ADMs for Suomi-NPP flux inversion increase the flux uncertainty? We will examine the deseasonalized flux anomaly time series using Aqua data alone and using combined Aqua and Suomi-NPP data. We will also present a simulation study to assess the Suomi-NPP flux uncertainty from using Aqua ADMs for the flux inversion.

Su, Wenying↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

thermosteric sea-level change↗
NASA NTRS2016

Flux Cancellation Leading to CME Filament Eruptions

Solar filaments are strands of relatively cool, dense plasma magnetically suspended in the lower density hotter solar corona. They trace magnetic polarity inversion lines (PILs) in the photosphere below, and are supported against gravity at heights of up to approx.100 Mm above the chromosphere by the magnetic field in and around them. This field erupts when it is rendered unstable, often by magnetic flux cancellation or emergence at or near the PIL. We have studied the evolution of photospheric magnetic flux leading to ten observed filament eruptions. Specifically, we look for gradual magnetic changes in the neighborhood of the PIL prior to and during eruption. We use Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), to study filament eruptions and their photospheric magnetic fields. We examine whether flux cancellation or/and emergence leads to filament eruptions. We find that continuous flux cancellation was present at the PIL for many hours prior to each eruption. We present two CME-producing eruptions in detail and find the following: (a) the pre-eruption filament-holding core field is highly sheared and appears in the shape of a sigmoid above the PIL; (b) at the start of the eruption the opposite arms of the sigmoid reconnect in the middle above the site of (tether-cutting) flux cancellation at the PIL; (c) the filaments first show a slow-rise, followed by a fast-rise as they erupt. We conclude that these two filament eruptions result from flux cancellation in the middle of the sheared field, and thereafter evolve in agreement with the standard model for a CME/flare filament eruption from a closed bipolar magnetic field [flux cancellation (van Ballegooijen and Martens 1989 and Moore and Roumelrotis 1992) and runaway tether-cutting (Moore et. al 2001)].

filament↗