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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A ‘Nuclear Bomb’ or Just ‘a Joke’? Groundwater Models May Help Communicate Nuanced Risks to the Great Salt Lake

The Great Salt Lake entered the zeitgeist of environmental concern in 2022 when a coalition of scientists and activists warned in a highly publicized report that the lake might be just five years away from complete desiccation, a possibility one state official warned was tantamount to an “environmental nuclear bomb”. Shortly thereafter, an unpredicted and unprecedented pluvial winter resulted in an increase in inflow, temporarily halting the lake’s decline and prompting Utah’s governor to mock the dire prediction as “a joke”, an outcome that speaks to the tension between agenda-setting and trust-building that researchers face when sharing worst-case warnings, particularly those based on short-term variability. Here, we describe a robust relationship between the lake and groundwater in the surrounding region and demonstrate how coupled models can thus be used to improve lake elevation predictions, suggesting that while the situation may not be as dire as some have warned, the lake remains at long-term risk as a result of climate warming. We further suggest that efforts to communicate the risk of future desiccation should be informed by stochastic variability and guided by long-term fluctuations in the total water storage of the endorheic lake’s watershed.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

FLUXNET-CH 4 : a global, multi-ecosystem dataset and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20°S to 20°N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Over three decades, and counting, of near-surface turbulent flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility

Processes mediating the coupling of terrestrial, aquatic, biospheric, and atmospheric systems influence weather, climate, and ecosystem dynamics via transfer of energy, momentum, water, and carbon (or other species). These exchange processes are quantified by measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes. Understanding processes at these interfaces provides insight toward understanding and predicting current and future states within the Earth system. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has been conducting measurements of near-surface turbulent fluxes since the early 1990s at long-term fixed locations and shorter-term mobile deployments across the Earth. ARM has utilized two established methods for conducting these measurements: energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) and eddy covariance (EC). Primary measurements from the former include sensible and latent heat flux, while the latter also measures fluxes of momentum and carbon (primarily carbon dioxide, with methane fluxes measured at two locations to date). The EBBR systems have been deployed at 22 locations, and, to date, the EC systems have been deployed at over 50 sites, with plans for additional novel site locations in the future. Herein, the history, evolution, and key aspects of these instrument systems are documented, along with information on data quality assurance and post-processing, as well as best use practices. Additionally, three data validation experiments were recently conducted, and their key findings are summarized. Finally, ancillary datasets acquired by ARM, which can contextualize and aid interpretation of the near-surface turbulent flux measurements, are discussed. The datasets described herein include the eddy correlation flux measurement system: 30ECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1879993, Sullivan et al., 1997), 30QCECOR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1097546, Gaustad, 2003), ECORSF (https://doi.org/10.5439/1494128, Sullivan et al., 2019a), and associated AmeriFlux and Methane Value-Added Product, AMCMETHANE (https://doi.org/10.5439/1508268, Billesbach, 2011); the energy balance Bowen ratio system: 30EBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1023895, Sullivan et al., 1993) and 30BAEBBR (https://doi.org/10.5439/1027268, Gaustad and Xie, 1993); and the carbon dioxide flux measurement system: CO2FLX (https://doi.org/10.5439/1287574, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287575, https://doi.org/10.5439/1287576, Koontz et al., 2015a, b, c; https://doi.org/10.5439/1989774, https://doi.org/10.5439/1989776, https://doi.org/10.5439/1992202, Biraud and Chan, 2002a, b, c). These data can be found by searching the above data stream names at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/#/results/ (last access: 8 September 2025).

Sullivan, Ryan C. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an Earth System Model

Abstract The hydroacoustic environment of a rapidly warming Arctic Ocean will be impacted by interconnected changes in the physical environment and increased human activity. Previous acoustic calculations will need to be updated to reflect current and future conditions. Earth System Models are important tools for making projections of changes in a wide range of physical processes under future climates. We present a comparison of Arctic acoustic travel times based on output from the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model with measured travel times from the 2016–2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment and with travel times predicted by empirical temperature and salinity observations. This comparison allows us to test the impact of changes in Arctic sound speed profiles on acoustic travel times and connects Arctic hydroacoustics with the changing Arctic environment as described by a climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of hurricane disturbances on a tropical forest: implementing a palm plant functional type and hurricane disturbance module in ED2-HuDi V1.0

Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency and intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances to tropical forests have been widely studied, but the long-term impacts are rarely investigated. Modeling is critical to investigate the potential response of forests to future disturbances, particularly if the nature of the disturbances is changing with climate. Unfortunately, existing models of forest dynamics are not presently able to account for hurricane disturbances. Therefore, we implement the Hurricane Disturbance in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) (ED2-HuDi). The hurricane disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate mortality and subsequent recovery modules. The parameterizations are based on observations at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type (PFT) to the model – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into one of the current existing PFTs and are known to be an abundant component of tropical forests worldwide. The model is calibrated with observations at BEW using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error of –21 %, –12 %, and –15 % for stem density, basal area, and aboveground biomass, respectively. The optimal simulation also agrees well with the observation in terms of PFT composition (+1 %, –8 %, –2 %, and +9 % differences in the percentages of “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, and “Palm” PFTs, respectively) and size structure of the forest (+0.8 % differences in the percentage of large stems). Lastly, using the optimal parameter set, we study the impact of forest initial condition on the recovery of the forest from a single hurricane disturbance. The results indicate that, compared to a no-hurricane scenario, a single hurricane disturbance has little impact on forest structure (+1 % change in the percentage of large stems) and composition (<1 % change in the percentage of each of the four PFTs) but leads to 5 % higher aboveground biomass after 80 years of succession. The assumption of a less severe hurricane disturbance leads to a 4 % increase in aboveground biomass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maps of Arctic vegetation leaf nitrogen concentration, albedo and plant functional type (PFT) derived from imaging spectroscopy data, Council watershed, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Remote sensing maps of surface albedo, leaf nitrogen content, and plant functional types (PFTs) derived from NASA's Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science & Technology (TEST) group at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The AVIRIS-NG imaging spectroscopy data (380 ~ 2510 nm) was collected as a part of the collaboration between NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE; Miller et al., 2019) and DOE's Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic). This package includes maps for the NGEE-Arctic Council watershed created using AVIRIS-NG imagery collected on July 9th, 2019. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI, *.png) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as *.png files and GIS *.kml files. Detailed description of the methods for each map are provided in this document. These datasets are provided in support of Figure 6 in Nelson et al., (2022), "Remote Sensing of Tundra Ecosystems using High Spectral Resolution Reflectance: Opportunities and Challenges". The full citation can be found within the references section. Note that the AVIRIS-NG leaf nitrogen product included in this dataset is a preliminary product and is provided for demonstration purposes only. It is not recommended that the map be used for scientific applications. For future updates on these products, please contact the authors.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors

Abstract Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic–boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anthropogenic drivers, however, remain poorly understood. Here we present a fire tracking system to map the sub-daily evolution of all circumpolar Arctic–boreal fires between 2012 and 2023 using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections and the resulting dataset of the ignition time, location, size, duration, spread and intensity of individual fires. We use this dataset to classify the Arctic–boreal biomes into seven distinct ‘pyroregions’ with unique climatic and geographic environments. We find that these pyroregions exhibit varying responses to environmental drivers, with boreal North America, eastern Siberia and northern tundra regions showing the highest sensitivity to climate and lightning density. In addition, anthropogenic factors play an important role in influencing fire number and size, interacting with other factors. Understanding the spatial variability of fire regimes and its interconnected drivers in the Arctic–boreal domain is important for improving future predictions of fire activity and identifying areas at risk for extreme events.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. Here we address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene

Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to global change and have been recognized as the sentinel of climate warming. However, anthropogenic impacts in populated area are migrating to these remote areas via transporting particulate nutrients by atmospheric deposition. Whether warming and nutrient deposition would impose additive or synergistic effects on the lake ecosystem remains largely unknown. Here, we present multi-proxy (sediment pigment and geochemistry) records during the past two centuries at the Cuoqia Lake in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. We found that the lake exhibited rapid ecological changes since 1980 AD characterized by an increase in primary productivity due to algal proliferation, with more rapid growth of green algae and diatoms. These findings are in concert with many other lakes (e.g., Moon Lake and Shade Co) in the same area, suggesting a consistent pattern of ecosystem evolution at the region scale. Statistical analyses suggested that nutrient deposition and climate warming were strongly associated with the variations in primary productivity and algae composition, exerting both individual and interactive effects. In addition, scenario analyses with a well-established process-based ecosystem model further revealed that the two factors not only individually, but also synergistically promoted the algal proliferation and community succession. Such synergy is evident in that the effect of lake warming would be more pronounced under higher nutrient deposition scenario, which is potentially due to higher temperature-driven mineralization in warmer conditions, and higher efficiency of nutrient utilization under enhanced light availability attributing to declining ice thickness and duration in cold seasons. Overall, our study proposes the existence and quantifies the synergistic impacts of climate warming and anthropogenic activities in driving the ecological changes in remote alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The lake ecological consequences driven by individual factor would be worsen by such synergy, so that we cannot predict the lake ecosystem trajectory in the future based on each factor separately, and more efforts than previously expected would be needed for the lake restoration and management.

Zhang, Can↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ductless Heat Pump Energy Monitoring in a Cold Climate

In 2018, the City and Borough of Juneau, Alaska set the goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for heating and transportation by 2045. An important factor to help reach this goal is finding energy efficiency home heating technologies such as ductless air source heat pumps (DHPs), which rely on the local hydropower electric grid to provide space heating for an entire home or a main living area. To help residents reduce energy costs and move toward the community renewable energy goal, a team of local, state, and national partners joined to run Thermalize Juneau 2021, an energy campaign that provided education, a simplified installation process, and a bulk purchase discount. Overall, the campaign enrolled 165 participants, resulting in 75 DHP installations and over 30 energy efficiency improvements. To evaluate the reliability and energy use of the DHPs installed during the Thermalize Juneau campaign, researchers installed energy monitors on heat pumps of 14 participants and conducted interviews with homeowners. Data from two heating seasons (2021-2022 and 2022-2023) has allowed researchers to examine the accuracy of pre-campaign energy savings predictions, establish energy savings for a small group of households, and provide insights on the energy use and occupant satisfaction of DHPs which will help to inform future heat pump deployment efforts in the area.

air source heat pump↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Observations indicate shrubs are expanding across the Arctic tundra, mainly on hillslopes and primarily in response to climate warming. However, the impact topography exerts on hydrology, nutrient dynamics, and plant growth can make untangling the mechanisms behind shrub expansion difficult. We examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Modeled biomass of the dominant plant functional types agreed well with field measurements (R 2 = 0.89) and accurately represented shrub expansion over the past 30 years inferred from satellite observations. In the well-drained crest position, canopy water potential and plant nitrogen (N) uptake was modeled to be low from plant and microbial water stress. Intermediate soil water content in the mid-slope position enhanced mineralization and plant N uptake, increasing shrub biomass. The deciduous shrub growth in the mid-slope position was further enhanced by symbiotic N 2 fixation primed by increased root carbon allocation. The gentle slope in the poorly drained lower-slope position resulted in saturated soil conditions that reduced soil O 2 concentrations, leading to lower root O 2 uptake and lower nutrient uptake and plant biomass. Additionally, a simulation that removed topographical interconnectivity between grid cells resulted in (1) a 28% underestimate of mean shrub biomass and (2) over or underestimated shrub productivity at the various hillslope positions. Our results indicate that land models need to account for hillslope-scale coupled surface and subsurface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine phytoplankton resilience may moderate oligotrophic ecosystem responses and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export. However, phytoplankton communities are complex adaptive systems with immense diversity that could render them at least partially resilient to global changes. This can be illustrated by the biology of the Prochlorococcus “collective.” Adaptations to counter stress, use of alternative nutrient sources, and frugal resource allocation can allow Prochlorococcus to buffer climate-driven changes in nutrient availability. In contrast, cell physiology is more sensitive to temperature changes. We argue that biogeochemical models need to consider the adaptive potential of diverse phytoplankton communities. However, a full understanding of phytoplankton resilience to future ocean changes is hampered by a lack of global biogeographic observations to test theories. We propose that the resilience may in fact be greater in oligotrophic waters than currently considered with implications for future predictions of phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Facile Metal Release from Pore-Lining Phases Enables Unique Carbonate Zonation in a Basalt Carbon Mineralization Demonstration

Carbon-negative strategies such as geologic carbon sequestration in continental flood basalts offers a promising route to the removal of greenhouse gases, such as CO 2 , via safe and permanent storage as stable carbonates. This potential has been successfully demonstrated at a field scale at the Wallula Basalt Carbon Storage Pilot Project where supercritical CO 2 was injected into the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). Here, we analyze recovered post-injection sidewall core cross-sections containing carbonate nodules using μ-XRF chemical mapping techniques that revealed compositional zonation within the nodules. The unique nature of the subsurface anthropogenic carbonates is highlighted by the near absence of Mg in an ankerite-like composition. Furthermore, a comparison between pre- and post-injection sidewall cores along with an in-depth chemical mapping of basalt pore lining cements provides a better understanding into the source and fate of critical cationic species involved in the precipitation of carbon mineralization products. Collectively, these results provide crucial insights into carbonate growth mechanisms under a time-dependent pore fluid composition. Finally, as such, these findings will enable parameterization of predictive models for future CO 2 sequestration efforts in reactive reservoirs around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗