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At least 271 records · Page 15

Predicting Pilot Error in Nextgen: Pilot Performance Modeling and Validation Efforts

We review 25 articles presenting 5 general classes of computational models to predict pilot error. This more targeted review is placed within the context of the broader review of computational models of pilot cognition and performance, including such aspects as models of situation awareness or pilot-automation interaction. Particular emphasis is placed on the degree of validation of such models against empirical pilot data, and the relevance of the modeling and validation efforts to Next Gen technology and procedures.

pilot error↗

Visual tracking in stereo

A method is described for visual object tracking by a computer vision system using TV cameras and special low-level image processing hardware. The tracker maintains an internal model of the location, orientation, and velocity of the object in three-dimensional space. This model is used to predict where features of the object will lie on the two-dimensional images produced by stereo TV cameras. The differences in the locations of features in the two-dimensional images as predicted by the internal model and as actually seen create an error signal in the two-dimensional representation. This is multiplied by a generalized inverse Jacobian matrix to deduce the error in the internal model. The procedure repeats to update the internal model of the object's location, orientation and velocity continuously.

Saund, E.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has several important applications, including the model assessment application and the objective analysis application. In this project, we have focused on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP), the 500 hPa geopotential height, and the 315 K potential vorticity fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system with and without ERS-1 scatterometer data. A great deal of novel work has been accomplished under the current contract. In broad terms, we have developed and tested an efficient algorithm for determining distortions. The algorithm and constraints are now ready for application to larger data sets to be used to determine the statistics of the distortion as outlined above, and to be applied in data analysis by using GEOS water vapor imagery to correct short-term forecast errors.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Cascade Error Projection Learning Algorithm

A detailed mathematical analysis is presented for a new learning algorithm termed cascade error projection (CEP) and a general learning frame work. This frame work can be used to obtain the cascade correlation learning algorithm by choosing a particular set of parameters.

learning algorithm neural network cascade error pr↗

Systematic improvement of x -dependent unpolarized nucleon generalized parton distributions in lattice-QCD calculation

We present a first study of the effects of renormalization-group resummation (RGR) and leading-renormalon resummation (LRR) on the systematic errors of the unpolarized isovector nucleon generalized parton distribution in the framework of large-momentum effective theory. This work is done using lattice gauge ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration, consisting of 2 + 1 + 1 flavors of highly improved staggered quarks with a physical pion mass at lattice spacing a ≈ 0.09 fm and a box width L ≈ 5.76 fm . We present results for the nucleon H and E generalized parton distributions (GPDs) with average boost momentum P z ≈ 2 GeV at momentum transfers Q 2 = [ 0 , 0.97 ] GeV 2 at skewness ξ = 0 as well as Q 2 ∈ 0.23 GeV 2 at ξ = 0.1 , renormalized in the modified minimal subtraction ( MS ¯ ) scheme at scale μ = 2.0 GeV , with two- and one-loop matching, respectively. We demonstrate that the simultaneous application of RGR and LRR significantly reduces the systematic errors in renormalized matrix elements and distributions for both the zero and nonzero skewness GPDs, and that it is necessary to include both RGR and LRR at higher orders in the matching and renormalization processes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Polynominal Interpolation Methods for Viscous Flow Calculations

Higher-order collocation procedures resulting in tridiagonal matrix systems are derived from polynomial spline interpolation and by Hermitian (Taylor series) finite-difference discretization. The similarities and special features of these different developments are discussed. The governing systems apply for both uniform and variable meshes. Hybrid schemes resulting from two different polynomial approximations for the first and second derivatives lead to a nonuniform mesh extension of the so-called compact or Pad? difference technique (Hermite 4). A variety of fourth-order methods are described and the Hermitian approach is extended to sixth-order (Hermite 6). The appropriate spline boundary conditions are derived for all procedures. For central finite differences, this leads to a two-point, second-order accurate generalization of the commonly used three-point end-difference formula. Solutions with several spline and Hermite procedures are presented for the boundary layer equations, with and without mass transfer, and for the incompressible viscous flow in a driven cavity. Divergence and nondivergence equations are considered for the cavity. Among the fourth-order techniques, it is shown that spline 4 has the smallest truncation error. The spline 4 procedure generally requires one-quarter the number of mesh points in a given coordinate direction as a central finite-difference calculation of equal accuracy. The Hermite 6 procedure leads to remarkably accurate boundary layer solutions.

Rubin, S. G.↗

A Comparison of Two Balance Calibration Model Building Methods

Simulated strain-gage balance calibration data is used to compare the accuracy of two balance calibration model building methods for different noise environments and calibration experiment designs. The first building method obtains a math model for the analysis of balance calibration data after applying a candidate math model search algorithm to the calibration data set. The second building method uses stepwise regression analysis in order to construct a model for the analysis. Four balance calibration data sets were simulated in order to compare the accuracy of the two math model building methods. The simulated data sets were prepared using the traditional One Factor At a Time (OFAT) technique and the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) approach. Random and systematic errors were introduced in the simulated calibration data sets in order to study their influence on the math model building methods. Residuals of the fitted calibration responses and other statistical metrics were compared in order to evaluate the calibration models developed with different combinations of noise environment, experiment design, and model building method. Overall, predicted math models and residuals of both math model building methods show very good agreement. Significant differences in model quality were attributable to noise environment, experiment design, and their interaction. Generally, the addition of systematic error significantly degraded the quality of calibration models developed from OFAT data by either method, but MDOE experiment designs were more robust with respect to the introduction of a systematic component of the unexplained variance.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Lateral control system design for VTOL landing on a DD963 in high sea states

The problem of designing lateral control systems for the safe landing of VTOL aircraft on small ships is addressed. A ship model is derived. The issues of estimation and prediction of ship motions are discussed, using optimal linear linear estimation techniques. The roll motion is the most important of the lateral motions, and it is found that it can be predicted for up to 10 seconds in perfect conditions. The automatic landing of the VTOL aircraft is considered, and a lateral controller, defined as a ship motion tracker, is designed, using optimal control techniqes. The tradeoffs between the tracking errors and the control authority are obtained. The important couplings between the lateral motions and controls are demonstrated, and it is shown that the adverse couplings between the sway and the roll motion at the landing pad are significant constraints in the tracking of the lateral ship motions. The robustness of the control system, including the optimal estimator, is studied, using the singular values analysis. Through a robustification procedure, a robust control system is obtained, and the usefulness of the singular values to define stability margins that take into account general types of unstructured modelling errors is demonstrated. The minimal destabilizing perturbations indicated by the singular values analysis are interpreted and related to the multivariable Nyquist diagrams.

Bodson, M.↗

Verification of the REBUS Software

Ongoing design activities at Argonne National Laboratory are requiring a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. REBUS is central to this system. The driver for this effort requires the Triangular-Z and hexagonal-Z core geometry options of REBUS to be verified. Previous work identified the REBUS features required to be verified to support current design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying REBUS’s ability to correctly intepret the user input model, verifying that the features identified yield the intended results, and verifying the correctness of the REBUS output tables. The REBUS software verification relies heavily upon the accuracy of the embedded DIF3D software, the verification of which was completed and documented elsewhere. Given that DIF3D produces an accurate solution, the primary focus of the verification in the REBUS software is to ensure that it properly uses the DIF3D solution and that the depletion system (Bateman equations) are correctly implemented. This manuscript reiterates the verification tasks and displays results with respect to the features needed for current design activities. Analytic solutions of the Batemen equations are displayed and the results calculated with REBUS are displayed demonstrating the accuracy. Since coupled Bateman and neutron diffusion/transport solutions are extremely difficult to obtain, much of the focus is placed on how REBUS uses a given DIF3D solution assuming the accuracy of the DIF3D solution. The verification effort identified no issues that are debilitating or otherwise impactful to the design usage of REBUS, and thus REBUS version 11.0, release 3012 is considered verified. It is important to note that several outputs of REBUS are identified to be inaccurate, such as burnup in MWD/MT. Most of the relevant ones for VTR are generally accurate with 10-20% errors which is not impactful as all regular REBUS users are aware of this issue and know how to hand calculate the results. The REBUS manual further makes it clear that these values are consistent with the methodology being used by REBUS and thus the “errors” are more of an inconsistent definition with respect to what a user would expect given a definition in literature. Other issues that were identified included unclear documentation and software bugs all of which were inconsequential to the final results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analytic Perturbation Method for Estimating Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Observations

An analytic perturbation method is introduced for estimating the lightning ground flash fraction in a set of N lightning flashes observed by a satellite lightning mapper. The value of N is large, typically in the thousands, and the observations consist of the maximum optical group area produced by each flash. The method is tested using simulated observations that are based on Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) data is used to determine the flash‐type (ground or cloud) of the satellite-observed flashes, and provides the ground flash fraction truth for the simulation runs. It is found that the mean ground flash fraction retrieval errors are below 0.04 across the full range 0‐1 under certain simulation conditions. In general, it is demonstrated that the retrieval errors depend on many factors (i.e., the number, N, of satellite observations, the magnitude of random and systematic measurement errors, and the number of samples used to form certain climate distributions employed in the model).

Koshak, William↗

Simplified Convolution Codes

Simple recursive algorithm efficiently calculates minimum-weight error vectors using Diophantine equations. Recursive algorithm uses general solution of polynomial linear Diophantine equation to determine minimum-weight error polynomial vector in equation in polynomial space.

Truong, T. K.↗

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

Hamer, H. A.↗

Accuracy Analysis for Finite-Volume Discretization Schemes on Irregular Grids

A new computational analysis tool, downscaling test, is introduced and applied for studying the convergence rates of truncation and discretization errors of nite-volume discretization schemes on general irregular (e.g., unstructured) grids. The study shows that the design-order convergence of discretization errors can be achieved even when truncation errors exhibit a lower-order convergence or, in some cases, do not converge at all. The downscaling test is a general, efficient, accurate, and practical tool, enabling straightforward extension of verification and validation to general unstructured grid formulations. It also allows separate analysis of the interior, boundaries, and singularities that could be useful even in structured-grid settings. There are several new findings arising from the use of the downscaling test analysis. It is shown that the discretization accuracy of a common node-centered nite-volume scheme, known to be second-order accurate for inviscid equations on triangular grids, degenerates to first order for mixed grids. Alternative node-centered schemes are presented and demonstrated to provide second and third order accuracies on general mixed grids. The local accuracy deterioration at intersections of tangency and in flow/outflow boundaries is demonstrated using the DS tests tailored to examining the local behavior of the boundary conditions. The discretization-error order reduction within inviscid stagnation regions is demonstrated. The accuracy deterioration is local, affecting mainly the velocity components, but applies to any order scheme.

Diskin, Boris↗

Analysis and classification of human error

The literature on human error is reviewed with emphasis on theories of error and classification schemes. A methodology for analysis and classification of human error is then proposed which includes a general approach to classification. Identification of possible causes and factors that contribute to the occurrence of errors is also considered. An application of the methodology to the use of checklists in the aviation domain is presented for illustrative purposes.

Rouse, W. B.↗

Adaptive Responses in Eye-Head-Hand Coordination Following Exposures to a Virtual Environment as a Possible Space Flight Analog

Virtual environments (VE) offer unique training opportunities, particularly for training astronauts and preadapting them to the novel sensory conditions of microgravity. Sensorimotor aftereffects of VEs are often quite similar to adaptive sensorimotor responses observed in astronauts during and/or following space flight. The purpose of this research was to compare disturbances in sensorimotor coordination produced by dome virtual environment display and to examine the effects of exposure duration, and repeated exposures to VR systems. The current study examined disturbances in eye-head-hand (EHH) and eye-head coordination. Preliminary results will be presented. Eleven subjects have participated in the study to date. One training session was completed in order to achieve stable performance on the EHH coordination and VE tasks. Three experimental sessions were performed each separated by one day. Subjects performed a navigation and pick and place task in a dome immersive display VE for 30 or 60 min. The subjects were asked to move objects from one set of 15 pedestals to the other set across a virtual square room through a random pathway as quickly and accurately as possible. EHH coordination was measured before, immediately after, and at 1 hr, 2 hr, 4 hr and 6 hr following exposure to VR. EHH coordination was measured as position errors and reaction time in a pointing task that included multiple horizontal and vertical LED targets. Repeated measures ANOVAs were used to analyze the data. In general, we observed significant increases in position errors for both horizontal and vertical targets. The largest decrements were observed immediately following exposure to VR and showed a fairly rapid recovery across test sessions, but not across days. Subjects generally showed faster RTs across days. Individuals recovered from the detrimental effects of exposure to the VE on position errors within 1-2 hours. The fact that subjects did not significantly improve across days suggests that in order to achieve dual adaptation of EHH coordination may require more than three training sessions. These findings provide some direction for developing training schedules for VE users that facilitate adaptation, support the idea that preflight training of astronauts may serve as useful countermeasure for the sensorimotor effects of space flight, and support the idea that VEs may serve as an analog for sensorimotor effects of spaceflight.

Harm, Deborah L.↗

Microwave radiative transfer through horizontally inhomogeneous precipitating clouds

Recent advances in cloud microphysical models have led to realistic three-dimensional distributions of cloud constituents. Radiative transfer schemes can make use of this detailed knowledge in order to study the effects of horizontal as well as vertical inhomogeneities within clouds. This study looks specifically at the differences between three-dimensional radiative transfer results and those obtained by plane parallel, independent pixel approximations in the microwave spectrum. A three-dimensional discrete ordinates method as well as a backward Monte Carlo method are used to calculate realistic radiances emerging from the cloud. Analyses between these models and independent pixel approximations reveal that plane parallel approximations introduce two distinct types of errors. The first error is physical in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations do not allow energy to leak out of dense areas into surrouding areas. In general, it was found that these errors are quite small for emission-dominated frequencies (37 GHz and lower) and that physical errors are highly pronounced only at scattering frequencies (85 GHz) where large deviations and biases up to 8 K averaged over the entire cloud were found. The second error is more geometric in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations cannot accommodate physical boundaries in the horizontal dimension for off-nadir viewing angles. The geometric errors were comparable in magnitude for all frequencies. Their magnitude, however, depends on a number of factors including the scheme used to deal with the edge, the nature of the surface, and the viewing angle.

Roberti, Laura↗

Isochronous and period-doubling diagrams for symplectic maps of the plane

Symplectic mappings of the plane serve as key models for exploring the fundamental nature of complex behavior in nonlinear systems. Central to this exploration is the effective visualization of stability regimes, which enables the interpretation of how systems evolve under varying conditions. While the area-preserving quadratic Hénon map has received significant theoretical attention, a comprehensive description of its mixed parameter-space dynamics remain lacking. This limitation arises from early attempts to reduce the full two-dimensional phase space to a one-dimensional projection, a simplification that resulted in the loss of important dynamical features. Consequently, there is a clear need for a more thorough understanding of the underlying qualitative aspects. This paper aims to address this gap by revisiting the foundational concepts of reversibility and associated symmetries, first explored in the early works of G.D. Birkhoff. We extend the original framework proposed by Hénon by adding a period-doubling diagram to his isochronous diagram, which allows to represents the system’s bifurcations and the groups of symmetric periodic orbits that emerge in typical bifurcations of the fixed point. A qualitative and quantitative explanation of the main features of the region of parameters with bounded motion is provided, along with the application of this technique to other symplectic mappings, including cases of multiple reversibility. Modern chaos indicators, such as the Reversibility Error Method (REM) and the Generalized Alignment Index (GALI), are employed to distinguish between various dynamical regimes in the mixed space of variables and parameters. These tools prove effective in differentiating regular and chaotic dynamics, as well as in identifying twistless orbits and their associated bifurcations. Additionally, we discuss the application of these methods to real-world problems, such as visualizing dynamic aperture in accelerator physics, where our findings have direct relevance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗