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At least 271 records · Page 15

Generating Accurate and Consistent Top-Of-Atmosphere Reflectance Products from the New Generation Geostationary Satellite Sensors

GeoNEX is a collaborative project by scientists from NASA, NOAA, JAXA, and other organizations around the world with the purpose of generating a suite of Earth-monitoring products using data streams from the latest geostationary (GEO) sensors including the GOES-16/17 ABI and the Himawari-8/9 AHI. An accurate and consistent top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance product, in particular the bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF), is the starting point in the scientific processing chain. We describe the main considerations and corresponding algorithms in generating the GeoNEX TOA BRF product. First, a special advantage of geostationary data streams is their high temporal resolution (~10 minutes per full-disk scan), providing a key source of information for many downstream products. To fully utilize this high temporal frequency demands a high georegistration accuracy for every acquired image. Our analysis shows that there can be substantial georegistration uncertainties in both GOES and Himawari L1b data which we addressed by implementing a phase-based correction algorithm to remove residual errors. Second, geostationary sensors have distinct illumination-view geometry features in that the solar angle changes for every pixel. Therefore, to accurately derive a BRF requires a solar position algorithm and the estimation of the pixel-wise acquisition time within an uncertainty of 10 seconds. Third, we discuss the measures we adopted to check and correct residual radiometric calibration issues of individual sensors to enable time-series analysis as well as the cross calibration between different satellite sensors (including those from low-Earth orbit). Finally, we also explain the rationale for the choice of the global grid/tile system of the GeoNEX TOA BRF product.

Wang, Weile↗

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

Charlson, Robert J.↗

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies

Because natural gas emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, it holds promise as a green energy transition fuel. However, the overall carbon footprint of natural gas is significantly elevated by methane emissions that occur during its production and transmission (Cusworth et al. 2022). Methane “super-emitters,” while comprising only about 1% of sites, are responsible for the majority of oil- and gas-sourced methane emissions, making their detection and mitigation critical in reducing the climate impact of natural gas and in meeting national and global sustainability goals (Sherwin et al. 2024). Yet, despite advancements in detection, significant uncertainties remain regarding the size, frequency, and duration distributions of methane emissions (e.g., Frankenberg et al. 2016, Cusworth et al. 2022, Chen, Sherwin et al. 2022, Conrad et al. 2023, Johnson et al. 2023, Sherwin et al. 2024) underscoring the need for comprehensive emissions inventories segmented by basin across the US. Airborne surveys are well-suited for collecting data to build these comprehensive, basin-level inventories because they allow for extensive spatial coverage, and have the spatial resolution, and the sensitivity to pinpoint individual methane sources. As remote sensing technologies enable rapid basin-scale surveys, it is imperative to establish scientifically and statistically robust standards to generate reliable and actionable emissions inventories. Recent work has shown that differences in airborne sampling strategies, detection technologies, and analysis can lead to large differences between survey conclusions if not correctly accounted for (Chen et al. 2024). This elevates the importance of incorporating proper sampling and analysis techniques when designing a methane emissions monitoring campaign to produce accurate results and facilitate cross-study comparisons. In this paper, we describe a survey strategy designed using the latest conclusions from the literature to align results from different aerial surveys. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions. We present results from a Department of Energy-funded project that deployed this survey strategy in two understudied oil and gas- producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Combined Theoretical Analysis of the Parity-Violating Asymmetry for 48 Ca and 208 Pb

The recent experimental determination of the parity violating asymmetry A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb at Jefferson Lab is important for our understanding on how neutrons and protons arrange themselves inside the atomic nucleus. To better understand the impact of these measurements, we present a rigorous theoretical investigation of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb and assess the associated uncertainties. Here, we complement our study by inspecting the static electric dipole polarizability in these nuclei. The analysis is carried out within nuclear energy density functional theory with quantified input. We conclude that the simultaneous accurate description of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb cannot be achieved by our models that accommodate a pool of global nuclear properties, such as masses and charge radii, throughout the nuclear chart, and describe—within one standard deviation—the experimental dipole polarizabilities in these nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optical interferometers for tests of relativistic gravity in space

A space-based astrometric interferometer with a large optical bandwidth is considered. POINTS (Precision Optical INTerferometry in Space) would measure the angular separation of two stars separated by about 90 deg on the sky with a nominal measurement error of 5 microarcseconds (mas). For a pair of mag 10 stars, the observation would require about 10 minutes. It is estimated that the instrument would measure daily the separation of two stars for each of about 60 pairs of stars; a random sequence of such measurements, if suitably redundant, contains the closure information necessary to detect and correct time dependent measurement biases to well below the nominal measurement accuracy. The 90 deg target separation permits absolute parallax measurements in all directions. A redundant observing schedule for 300 stars and 5 quasars would provide extra redundancy to compensate for the quasars' higher magnitude. If a nominal 30-day observation sequence were repeated 4 times per year for 10 years, stellar parameter uncertainties would be obtained of: 0.6 mas, position; 0.4 mas/y, proper motion; and 0.4 mas, parallax. This set of well-observed stars and quasars would form a rigid frame and the stars would serve as reference objects for measurements of all additional targets, as well as being targets of direct scientific interest. The instrument global data analysis since objectives are considered including a relativity test and technology.

Reasenberg, R. D.↗

Doppler Global Velocimeter Development for the Large Wind Tunnels at Ames Research Center

Development of an optical, laser-based flow-field measurement technique for large wind tunnels is described. The technique uses laser sheet illumination and charged coupled device detectors to rapidly measure flow-field velocity distributions over large planar regions of the flow. Sample measurements are presented that illustrate the capability of the technique. An analysis of measurement uncertainty, which focuses on the random component of uncertainty, shows that precision uncertainty is not dependent on the measured velocity magnitude. For a single-image measurement, the analysis predicts a precision uncertainty of +/-5 m/s. When multiple images are averaged, this uncertainty is shown to decrease. For an average of 100 images, for example, the analysis shows that a precision uncertainty of +/-0.5 m/s can be expected. Sample applications show that vectors aligned with an orthogonal coordinate system are difficult to measure directly. An algebraic transformation is presented which converts measured vectors to the desired orthogonal components. Uncertainty propagation is then used to show how the uncertainty propagates from the direct measurements to the orthogonal components. For a typical forward-scatter viewing geometry, the propagation analysis predicts precision uncertainties of +/-4, +/-7, and +/-6 m/s, respectively, for the U, V, and W components at 68% confidence.

Reinath, Michael S.↗

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

MESSENGER↗

Validation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval Over Land

Aerosol optical depths are derived operationally for the first time over land in the visible wavelengths by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) onboard the EOSTerra spacecraft. More than 300 Sun photometer data points from more than 30 AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sites globally were used in validating the aerosol optical depths obtained during July - September 2000. Excellent agreement is found with retrieval errors within (Delta)tau=+/- 0.05 +/- 0.20 tau, as predicted, over (partially) vegetated surfaces, consistent with pre-launch theoretical analysis and aircraft field experiments. In coastal and semi-arid regions larger errors are caused predominantly by the uncertainty in evaluating the surface reflectance. The excellent fit was achieved despite the ongoing improvements in instrument characterization and calibration. This results show that MODIS-derived aerosol optical depths can be used quantitatively in many applications with cautions for residual clouds, snow/ice, and water contamination.

Chu, D. A.↗

Thermal Infrared Dust Optical Depth and Coarse-Mode Effective Diameter Over Oceans Retrieved From Collocated MODIS and CALIOP Observations

In this study, we developed a novel algorithm based on the collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared (TIR) observations and dust vertical profiles from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to simultaneously retrieve dust aerosol optical depth at 10 µm (DAOD10μm) and the coarse-mode dust effective diameter (Deff) over global oceans. The accuracy of the Deff retrieval is assessed by comparing the dust lognormal volume particle size distribution (PSD) corresponding to retrieved Deff with the in-situ measured dust PSDs from the AER-D, SAMUM-2 and SALTRACE field campaigns through case studies. The new DAOD10μm retrievals were evaluated first through comparisons with the collocated DAOD10.6μm retrieved from the combined Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) and CALIOP observations from our previous study (Zheng et al. 2022). The pixel-to-pixel comparison of the two DAOD retrievals indicates a good agreement (R~0.7) and a significant reduction of (~50%) retrieval uncertainties largely thanks to the better constraint on dust size. In a climatological comparison, the seasonal and regional (5°×2°) mean DAOD10um retrievals based on our combined MODIS and CALIOP method are in good agreement with the two independent Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) products over three dust transport regions (i.e., North Atlantic (NA; R = 0.9), Indian Ocean (IO; R = 0.8) and North Pacific (NP; R = 0.7)). Using the new retrievals from 2013 to 2017, we performed a climatological analysis of coarse mode dust Deff over global oceans. We found that dust Deff over IO and NP are up to 20% smaller than that over NA. Over NA in summer, we found a ~50% reduction of the number of retrievals with Deff > 5 μm from 15°W to 35°W and a stable trend of Deff average at 4.4 μm from 35°W throughout the Caribbean Sea (90°W). Over NP in spring, only ~5% of retrieved pixels with Deff > 5 μm are found from 150°E to 180°, while the mean Deff remains stable at 4.0 μm throughout eastern NP. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to retrieve both DAOD and coarse-mode dust particle size over global oceans for multiple years. This retrieval dataset provides insightful information for evaluating dust long-wave radiative effects and coarse mode dust particle size in models.

dust optical depth↗

Two-Channel Satellite Retrievals of Aerosol Properties: An Overview

In order to reduce current uncertainties in the evaluation of the direct and indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on climate on the global scale, it has been suggested to apply multi-channel retrieval algorithms to the full period of existing satellite data. This talk will outline the methodology of interpreting two-channel satellite radiance data over the ocean and describe a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of retrieved aerosol parameters to the assumptions made in different retrieval algorithms. We will specifically address the calibration and cloud screening issues, consider the suitability of existing satellite data sets to detecting short- and long-term regional and global changes, compare preliminary results obtained by several research groups, and discuss the prospects of creating an advanced retroactive climatology of aerosol optical thickness and size over the oceans.

Mishchenko, Michael I.↗

Information Theoretic Evaluation of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals

Microwave radiometry has a long legacy of providing estimates of remotely sensed near surfacesoil moisture measurements over continental and global scales. A consistent assessment of theerrors and uncertainties associated with these retrievals is important for their effective utilization in modeling, data assimilation and end-use application environments. This article presents an evaluationof soil moisture retrieval products from AMSR-E, ASCAT, SMOS, AMSR2 and SMAPinstruments using information theory-based metrics. These metrics rely on time series analysis ofsoil moisture retrievals for estimating the measurement error, level of randomness (entropy) andregularity (complexity) of the data. The results of the study indicate that the measurement errors inthe remote sensing retrievals are significantly larger than that of the ground soil moisture measurements.The SMAP retrievals, on the other hand, were found to have reduced errors (comparable to Preprint submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment October 1, 2017those of in-situ datasets), particularly over areas with moderate vegetation. The SMAP retrievals also demonstrate high information content relative to other retrieval products, with higher levelsof complexity and reduced entropy. Finally, a joint evaluation of the entropy and complexity ofremotely sensed soil moisture products indicates that the information content of the AMSR-E, ASCAT,SMOS and AMSR2 retrievals is low, whereas SMAP retrievals show better performance. The use of information theoretic assessments is effective in quantifying the required levels of improvements needed in the remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to enhance their utility and information content.

Information theory↗

Polar wander analysis from paleomagnetic data

Utilizing marine magnetic anomalies and paleomagnetic pole positions, paleogeographic maps were constructed for three time intervals back to the Early Cretaceous. From the maps lithospheric plate motions were calculated and these global displacement fields were analyzed to determine best-fitting rigid rotations, which then could be ascribed to true polar wander. The values so obtained are no larger than a few degrees and are within the magnitude of the uncertainties involved.

Vandervoo, R.↗

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

On the procedure for deriving ozone variations from satellite observations

It is noted that for the years 1970-1972 global ozone may be calculated by using extrapolated values for polar night regions and then deriving direct daily averages. After 1972, regions larger than the polar night often lack data, increasing the error of extrapolation. It is shown that problems of this type can be overcome by using zonal averages, calculating the annual wave through harmonic analysis, and subtracting the annual wave so derived. Linear fits can then be employed to obtain long-term zonal changes and yearly zonal averages. Global results can be derived in the form of an area-weighted average of the zonal results. It is pointed out that no values need be assumed for ozone when data are lacking. The uncertainty from this procedure is estimated at + or - 0.4% of the yearly average. However, other uncertainties in the backscatter ultraviolet experiment may be larger.

Schlesinger, B. M.↗

Modeling of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere System

This grant covered the transition period between the ISTP/GGS main mission MAMI work (NAGW5-1097) to the extended mission of GGS/SolaxMax. During this period we concentrated on the following subjects: (1) Ionospheric modeling and in particular the coupling of the ionosphere and the magnetosphere require knowledge of the ionospheric conductances. We have an algorithm to derive these conductances from POLAR UVI or POLAR VIS images. The image analysis requires carefully calibrated measurements, separation of auroral brightness from scattered solar EUV and emissions caused by photoelectrons, and modeling of the auroral conditions, Under this grant we evaluated the various sources of uncertainty that contribute to the conductance calculation by comparing different model approaches and we conducted sensitivity studies. A joint modeling effort between our ionospheric models and a global MHD magnetospheric model with S. Slinker and J. Fedder lead to improved parameterizations for the MHD model. The predictions of that new model were validated using data from ground based instruments, POLAR UVI images, and DMSP satellites. These findings were presented at the GEM meeting in Snowmass, and at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville. A manuscript for publication is in preparation. A study to evaluate the thermospheric effects of large substorms and storms was con- ducted with the TIE-GCM model. Of particular interest are compositional changes of the thermosphere in the southern hemisphere. Southern hemisphere effects are stronger than those on the northern hemisphere because of the larger offset of the magnetic dipole from the rotational axis. These results were presented at the Huntsville modeling workshop in Guntersville.

Source record↗

Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Profiles using the NCEP GFS

We have previously conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using AIRS Version-5 quality controlled temperature profiles as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The data assimilation and forecast system we used was the Goddard Earth Observing System Model , Version-5 (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS), which represents a combination of the NASA GEOS-5 forecast model with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) global analysis scheme. All analyses and forecasts were run at a 0.5deg x 0.625deg spatial resolution. Data assimilation experiments were conducted in four different seasons, each in a different year. Three different sets of data assimilation experiments were run during each time period: Control; AIRS T(p); and AIRS Radiance. In the "Control" analysis, all the data used operationally by NCEP was assimilated, but no AIRS data was assimilated. Radiances from the Aqua AMSU-A instrument were also assimilated operationally by NCEP and are included in the "Control". The AIRS Radiance assimilation adds AIRS observed radiance observations for a select set of channels to the data set being assimilated, as done operationally by NCEP. In the AIRS T(p) assimilation, all information used in the Control was assimilated as well as Quality Controlled AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles, i.e., AIRS T(p) information was substituted for AIRS radiance information. The AIRS Version-5 temperature profiles were presented to the GSI analysis as rawinsonde profiles, assimilated down to a case-by-case appropriate pressure level p(sub best) determined using the Quality Control procedure. Version-5 also determines case-by-case, level-by-level error estimates of the temperature profiles, which were used as the uncertainty of each temperature measurement. These experiments using GEOS-5 have shown that forecasts resulting from analyses using the AIRS T(p) assimilation system were superior to those from the Radiance assimilation system, both with regard to global 7 day forecast skill and also the ability to predict storm tracks and intensity.

Susskind, Joel↗