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Accuracy requirements

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Delgenio, Anthony↗

Infrared absorption cross sections of alternative CFCs

Absorption cross sections have obtained in the infrared atmospheric window, between 600 and 1500 cm(exp -1), for 10 alternative hydrohalocarbons: HCFC-22, HCFC-123, HCFC-124, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC-225ca, HCFC-225cb, HFC-125, HFC-134a, and HFC-152a. The measurements were made at three temperatures (287K, 270K and 253K) with a Fourier transform spectrometer operating at 0.03 cm(exp -1) apodized resolution. Integrated cross sections are also derived for use in radiative models to calculate the global warming potentials.

Clerbaux, Cathy↗

Low acid producing solid propellants

The potential environmental effects of the exhaust products of conventional rocket propellants have been assessed by various groups. Areas of concern have included stratospheric ozone, acid rain, toxicity, air quality and global warming. Some of the studies which have been performed on this subject have concluded that while the impacts of rocket use are extremely small, there are propellant development options which have the potential to reduce those impacts even further. This paper discusses the various solid propellant options which have been proposed as being more environmentally benign than current systems by reducing HCI emissions. These options include acid neutralized, acid scavenged, and nonchlorine propellants. An assessment of the acid reducing potential and the viability of each of these options is made, based on current information. Such an assessment is needed in order to judge whether the potential improvements justify the expenditures of developing the new propellant systems.

Bennett, Robert R.↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗

Ice Processes and Growth History on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Lakes Using ERS-1 SAR Data

A survey of ice growth and decay processes on a selection of shallow and deep sub-Arctic and Arctic lakes was conducted using radiometrically calibrated ERS-1 SAR images. Time series of radar backscatter data were compiled for selected sites on the lakes during the period ot ice cover (September to June) for the years 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. A variety of lake-ice processes could be observed, and significant changes in backscatter occurred from the time of initial ice formation in autumn until the onset of the spring thaw. Backscatter also varied according to the location and depth of the lakes. The spatial and temporal changes in backscatter were most constant and predictable at the shallow lakes on the North Slope of Alaska. As a consequence, they represent the most promising sites for long-term monitoring and the detection of changes related to global warming and its effects on the polar regions.

Morris, K.↗

NASA Microgravity Combustion Science Program

Combustion is a key element of many critical technologies used by contemporary society. For example, electric power production, home heating, surface and air transportation, space propulsion, and materials synthesis all utilize combustion as a source of energy. Yet, although combustion technology is vital to our standard of living, it poses great challenges to maintaining a habitable environment. For example, pollutants, atmospheric change and global warming, unwanted fires and explosions, and the incineration of hazardous wastes are major problem areas which would benefit from improved understanding of combustion. Effects of gravitational forces impede combustion studies more than most other areas of science since combustion involves production of high-temperature gases whose low density results in buoyant motion, vastly complicating the execution and interpretation of experiments. Effects of buoyancy are so ubiquitous that their enormous negative impact on the rational development of combustion science is generally not recognized. Buoyant motion also triggers the onset of turbulence, yielding complicating unsteady effects. Finally, gravity forces cause particles and drops to settle, inhibiting deconvoluted studies of heterogeneous flames important to furnace, incineration and power generation technologies. Thus, effects of buoyancy have seriously limited our capabilities to carry out 'clean' experiments needed for fundamental understanding of flame phenomena. Combustion scientists can use microgravity to simplify the study of many combustion processes, allowing fresh insights into important problems via a deeper understanding of elemental phenomena also found in Earth-based combustion processes and to additionally provide valuable information concerning how fires behave in microgravity and how fire safety on spacecraft can be enhanced.

King, Merrill K.↗

Four-Dimensional Oceanic and Atmosperic Data Assimilation with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data

An oceanic data assimilation system which allows to utilize the forthcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data has been developed and applied to the Pacific Ocean to produce the velocity field. The assimilated data will be indispensable to examine the effects of rainfall and its variability on the structure and circulation of the tropical oceans and to assess the impact of global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide on the ocean circulation system and the marine pollution caused by oil spill and ocean damping of radionuclide. The data will also provide the verification for the oceanic and ocean-atmosphere coupled General Circulation Models (GCM's). The system consists of oceanic GCM, analysis scheme and data. In the system the flow field has been determined to be physically consistent with the observed density field and the sea surface winds derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imagery (SSM/I) data which drive the ocean current. The time integration has been performed for five years until the flow field near the surface attained the steady state starting from the rest ocean with observed temperature and salinity fields, and the SSM/I surface wind velocity. The resultant flow field showed high producibility of the system. Especially the flow near the ocean surface agreed well with available observed data. The system, for the first time, succeeded to produce the eastward subtropical current which has been discovered in the joint investigation on Kuroshio current (CSK) in the 1960s. To verify the quality of the flow field a trajectory analysis has been carried out and compared with the Algos buoy data. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM ## Oceanic GCM and analysis scheme--The basic equations are much the same as used for the GCM's, except for the Newtonian damping terms introduced into the prediction equations for the potential temperature and salinity to maintain these fields as observed. The C grid of 2'lat. by 2'long. in horizontal and the 11 vertical levels are applied to the entire Pacific Ocean. At the east and west ocean boundaries the periodic boundary conditions are applied creating fictitious ocean there. The SMAC Method is used to increase the accuracy of mass conservation. * Data--The JODC temperature and salinity data obtained from 1906 to 1988 are used in the system between Long.100'E. and 60'W. The surface wind data are derived from the SSM/I data by Dr-R. Atlas of NASA/GSFC. The data set contains every 6 hours data from July 1987 to June 1989 on the grid of 2'lat. by 2.5'long. The averaged for the whole period and then interpolated into the 2'lat. by 2'long. grid data are used to force the system. The sea bottom topography data was based on the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) supplied by the Canadian Hydrographic Service under contract with the International Hydrographic Organization and International Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO.

Takano, Kenji↗

Design and Performance Analysis of a Massively Parallel Atmospheric General Circulation Model

In the 1990's computer manufacturers are increasingly turning to the development of parallel processor machines to meet the high performance needs of their customers. Simultaneously, atmospheric scientists study weather and climate phenomena ranging from hurricanes to El Nino to global warming that require increasingly fine resolution models. Here, implementation of a parallel atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) which exploits the power of massively parallel machines is described. Using the horizontal data domain decomposition methodology, this FORTRAN 90 model is able to integrate a 0.6 deg. longitude by 0.5 deg. latitude problem at a rate of 19 Gigaflops on 512 processors of a Cray T3E 600; corresponding to 280 seconds of wall-clock time per simulated model day. At this resolution, the model has 64 times as many degrees of freedom and performs 400 times as many floating point operations per simulated day as the model it replaces.

Schaffer, Daniel S.↗

Comparison of measurements by the NASA/GSFC scanning raman lidar and the DOE/ARM CART raman lidar

Latent heat transfer through evaporation and condensation of water vapor is the most important energy transport mechanism in the atmosphere. In addition, water vapor is the most active greenhouse gas. Any global warming scenario must take accurate account of the spatial and temporal variation of water vapor in order to account for both of these effects. Due to the great importance of water vapor in atmospheric radiation studies, specific intensive operations periods (IOPs) have been hosted by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program. One of the goals of these IOPs has been to determine the quality of and explain any discrepancies among a wide variety of water vapor measuring instruments. Raman lidar systems developed by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and DOE/Sandia National Laboratories have participated in the two Water Vapor IOPs (WVIOPs) held at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed Site (CART) site during 1996 (WVIOP1) and 1997 (WVIOP2). Detailed comparisons of these two systems is ongoing but this effort has already resulted in numerous improvements in design and data analysis for both lidar systems.

Whiteman, David↗

Fiber-Optic Coupled Lidar Receiver System to Measure Stratospheric Ozone

The measurement of ozone in the atmosphere has become increasingly important over the past two decades. Significant increases of ozone concentrations in the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, and decreases in the upper atmosphere, or stratosphere, have been attributed to man-made causes. High ozone concentrations in the troposphere pose a health hazard to plants and animals and can add to global warming. On the other hand, ozone in the stratosphere serves as a protective barrier against strong ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun. Man-made CFC's (chlorofluorocarbons) act as a catalyst with a free oxygen atom and an ozone molecule to produce two oxygen molecules therefore depleting the protective layer of ozone in the stratosphere. The beneficial and harmful effects of ozone require the study of ozone creation and destruction processes in the atmosphere. Therefore, to provide an accurate model of these processes, an ozone lidar system must be able to be used frequently with as large a measurement range as possible. Various methods can be used to measure atmospheric ozone concentrations. These include different airborne and balloon measurements, solar occulation satellite techniques, and the use of lasers in lidar (high detection and ranging,) systems to probe the atmosphere. Typical devices such as weather balloons can only measure within the direct vicinity of the instrument and are therefore used infrequently. Satellites use solar occulation techniques that yield low horizontal and vertical resolution column densities of ozone.

Harper, David Brent↗

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

This technology assessment of long-term high capacity data storage systems identifies an emerging crisis of severe proportions related to preserving important historical data in science, healthcare, manufacturing, finance and other fields. For the last 50 years, the information revolution, which has engulfed all major institutions of modem society, centered itself on data-their collection, storage, retrieval, transmission, analysis and presentation. The transformation of long term historical data records into information concepts, according to Drucker, is the next stage in this revolution towards building the new information based scientific and business foundations. For this to occur, data survivability, reliability and evolvability of long term storage media and systems pose formidable technological challenges. Unlike the Y2K problem, where the clock is ticking and a crisis is set to go off at a specific time, large capacity data storage repositories face a crisis similar to the social security system in that the seriousness of the problem emerges after a decade or two. The essence of the storage crisis is as follows: since it could take a decade to migrate a peta-byte of data to a new media for preservation, and the life expectancy of the storage media itself is only a decade, then it may not be possible to complete the transfer before an irrecoverable data loss occurs. Over the last two decades, a number of anecdotal crises have occurred where vital scientific and business data were lost or would have been lost if not for major expenditures of resources and funds to save this data, much like what is happening today to solve the Y2K problem. A pr-ime example was the joint NASA/NSF/NOAA effort to rescue eight years worth of TOVS/AVHRR data from an obsolete system, which otherwise would have not resulted in the valuable 20-year long satellite record of global warming. Current storage systems solutions to long-term data survivability rest on scalable architectures having parallel paths for data migration.

Halem, M.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere to Seasonal and Long-Term Climate Forcing

Since the pioneer works of Bjerknes (1966,1969) many studies have been conducted to understand the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These studies have led to a basic understanding of the dynamics of El Nino. Central to the couple dynamics of ENSO is the delayed action oscillator theory (Suarez and Schopf 1988), which successfully describes the cyclic feature of El Nino. While the oscillatory feature of El Nino is reasonably well understood, the irregularity of El Nino, the effect of monsoon on ENSO, and the response of coupled system to the global warming are still under debate. In the present study, we attempt to provide some theoretical understanding of possible impacts of seasonal cycle, monsoon, and climate changes on ENSO using intermediate coupled model.

Kim, K.-M.↗

BIOME: A scientific data archive search-and-order system using browser-aware, dynamic pages

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) is a data archive and distribution center for the National Air and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Both the Earth Observing System (EOS) and EOSDIS are components of NASA's contribution to the US Global Change Research Program through its Mission to Planet Earth Program. The ORNL DAAC provides access to data used in ecological and environmental research such as global change, global warming, and terrestrial ecology. Because of its large and diverse data holdings, the challenge for the ORNL DAAC is to help users find data of interest from the hundreds of thousands of files available at the DAAC without overwhelming them. Therefore, the ORNL DAAC has developed the Biogeochemical Information Ordering Management Environment (BIOME), a customized search and order system for the World Wide Web (WWW). BIOME is a public system located at http://www-eosdis. ornl.gov/BIOME/biome.html.

CLIMATIC CHANGE↗

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Global warming, caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, is the direct result of greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered, this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes, the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models.

Cess, R. D.↗

Research and Educational Opportunities with NASA GSFC

The research carried out in the Earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentation. These research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth System Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. There are 4 major laboratories in the directorate and 2 organizations that focus on scientific information technology. These laboratories focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change). Two of the labs also have branches that focus on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies. In the information technologies, areas of scientific and technical research, and expertise include massively parallel computers, technologies for high speed electronic networks, scientific visualization, information systems, archive and distribution systems, and information processing. Examples will be presented from each of these research disciplines.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

The Role of Sea Ice in 2 x CO2 Climate Model Sensitivity: Hemispheric Dependencies - Part 2

How sensitive are doubled CO2 simulations to GCM control-run sea ice thickness and extent? This issue is examined in a series of 10 control-run simulations with different sea ice and corresponding doubled CO2 simulations. Results show that with increased control-run sea ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere, temperature sensitivity with climate change is enhanced, while there is little effect on temperature sensitivity of (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice thickness. In the Northern Hemisphere the situation is reversed: sea ice thickness is the key parameter, while (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice coverage are of less importance. In both cases, the quantity of sea ice that can be removed in the warmer climate is the determining factor. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage change had a larger impact on global temperature, because Northern Hemisphere sea ice was sufficiently thick to limit its response to doubled CO2, and sea ice changes generally occurred at higher latitudes, reducing the sea ice-albedo feedback. In both these experiments and earlier ones in which sea ice was not allowed to change, the model displayed a sensitivity of -0.02 C global warming per percent change in Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage.

Rind, D.↗

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Earth System Science at NASA: Teleconnections Between Sea Surface Temperature and Epidemics in Africa

The research carried out in the Earth Sciences in NASA and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentations. In addition, one research project that links sea surface temperature to epidemics in Africa will be highlighted. At GSFC research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. These organizations focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change), on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies, and on information technologies, that enable support of scientific and technical research.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗