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DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

2019 accomplishments: degradation of mechanical properties in structural metals and welds for FTS reservoirs

This report documents work in 2019 at SRNL in support of the Aging and Lifetimes program. Specimens for fracture toughness testing were prepared in prior years by thermally pre-charging samples, provided by Sandia National Laboratories, of welded types 304L and 21-6-9 stainless steels. These samples were pre-charged in 2017. The fracture toughness of the first aged specimens was measured and compared to historical data. The measurements of the 304L and 21-6-9 weld and particularly HAZ represent some of the first fracture data relevant to modern GTS reservoirs. This work represents an on-going collaboration between SRNL and SNL to understand tritium embrittlement of structural metals in Gas Transfer System reservoirs which informs lifetime assessments. Continued testing was conducted on ongoing historical studies, including the effects of very long-term aging, and the relative performance of differently forged stockpile relevant 304L and 316L samples. New samples were pre-charged with tritium and placed in a freezer for an aging study to allow helium to build into the material. The precharged samples consist of smooth and notched tensile samples of 304L stainless steel, as well as tube tensile samples of different thermal treatments supplied by Sandia National Laboratories. Their charging marks the beginning of a new sequence of studies to explore fundamental deformation mechanisms underpinning tritium embrittlement. At predesignated times, samples will be removed from aging and tested to provide data which will help develop an understanding of material degradation with increasing aging time. Also documented is progress in employing various advanced characterization techniques including high resolution electron microscopy, thermally programed desorption, and small angle x-ray scattering, as well as facilities renovations and equipment procurements in support of sustained tritium impacts on materials program at SRNL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resolving root causes of experiment discrepancies guided by machine learning

Abstract Scientists rely on accurate experimental data to explain nature and then harness this knowledge for applications addressing human needs. However, discrepancies between experiments of the same observable can impede scientific progress if one does not understand the underlying causes. Here, we developed a process that unravels data discrepancies by first using Bayesian machine learning to relate discrepancies to few of many, potentially biasing metadata features that encode experiment procedures. This machine learning output guides human experts to study discrepancy causes by simulating suspicious aspects of historical experiments or designing modern ones to address open questions. The study findings then lead to rejecting or correcting historical data on firm scientific bases. This process is demonstrated for the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted promptly (<1 ns) after fission of 252 Cf, a trusted nuclear physics Standard. It reduces the spread in experimental 252 Cf spectra by up to a factor of 6.

Neudecker, D. (ORCID:0000000339200627)↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Method for Adaptive Reserve Requirement Estimation via Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting

The University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, 80309, USA With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, power systems are subject to more uncertainty. This makes power system reserve scheduling more challenging. Most of the current reserve requirement determination methods calculate reserve requirements based on historical data, which does not consider the real-time or future system uncertainty. In this paper, a data-driven method is developed to determine the non-spinning reserve requirement (NSRR) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The method follows the procedure of the current ERCOT method while adaptively determining the NSRR based on probabilistic net load forecasts. Case studies with two years of ERCOT data show that the developed method significantly reduces the NSRR by introducing an adaptive temporal resolution and update rate. Sensitivity analysis with different forecasting and percentile thresholds indicates the flexibility of the developed method.

non-spinning reserve↗

NASA NTRS1975

Crop identification technology assessment for remote sensing (CITARS). Volume 10: Interpretation of results

The CITARS was an experiment designed to quantitatively evaluate crop identification performance for corn and soybeans in various environments using a well-defined set of automatic data processing (ADP) techniques. Each technique was applied to data acquired to recognize and estimate proportions of corn and soybeans. The CITARS documentation summarizes, interprets, and discusses the crop identification performances obtained using (1) different ADP procedures; (2) a linear versus a quadratic classifier; (3) prior probability information derived from historic data; (4) local versus nonlocal recognition training statistics and the associated use of preprocessing; (5) multitemporal data; (6) classification bias and mixed pixels in proportion estimation; and (7) data with differnt site characteristics, including crop, soil, atmospheric effects, and stages of crop maturity.

Bizzell, R. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model provides a computational framework to simulate the F&T of contaminants in groundwater associated with the 200-PO-1, 200-UP-1, 200-BP-5, and 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Units (OUs) in the Hanford Site Central Plateau. In addition, the model includes adjacent areas and facilities (e.g., the State Approved Land Disposal Site). Intended and anticipated uses of the model include calculating water levels, hydraulic gradients, and groundwater flows throughout the model domain (encompassing the 200 West and 200 East Areas) for use in subsequent F&T calculations for contaminants of concern and developing scale-appropriate, telescopic-mesh refinement models for detailed evaluation of areas within the model domain where required. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within the OU boundaries. The objective for the model development phase is to create a common modeling platform that can be used for investigations of the Central Plateau groundwater OUs and areas downgradient toward the Columbia River. The P2R Model calibration to historical data observed at the Hanford Site is documented in CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3. The purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe a null space Monte Carlo (NSMC) evaluation was conducted with the historic calibration of the P2R model. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. Use of the NSMC approach results in 100 groundwater flow models that are variants of the calibrated P2R Model. These variant models can be used to evaluate uncertainty in model predictions made by the calibrated P2R Model for other analyses. A secondary purpose of the environmental calculation is to establish these variant models for use with other applications.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic AC optimal power flow: A data-driven approach

There is an emerging need for efficient solutions to stochastic AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) to ensure optimal and reliable grid operations in the presence of increasing demand and generation uncertainty. Herein this paper presents a highly scalable data-driven algorithm for stochastic AC-OPF that has extremely low sample requirement. The novelty behind the algorithm’s performance involves an iterative scenario design approach that merges information regarding constraint violations in the system with data-driven sparse regression. Compared to conventional methods with random scenario sampling, our approach is able to provide feasible operating points for realistic systems with much lower sample requirements. Furthermore, multiple sub-tasks in our approach can be easily paralleled and based on historical data to enhance its performance and application. We demonstrate the computational improvements of our approach through simulations on different test cases in the IEEE PES PGLib-OPF benchmark library.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale and Multivariate Transportation System Visualization for Shopping District Traffic and Regional Traffic

In this paper, we present a suite of visualization techniques for sensor-based transportation system data at different scales to facilitate the exploration of interconnected traffic dynamics at intersections and highways. Additionally, these techniques are designed for analyzing multivariate traffic data from radar-based highway sensors and camera-based intersection sensors recording turn movements and vehicle speed, in the Chattanooga Metropolitan Area, with the capability of (a) revealing multiscale mobility patterns using different levels of data aggregation (e.g., individual sensor for microscale, multiple sensors along a corridor for mesoscale, and a larger number of sensors across the region for macroscale visualization) at different intervals (e.g., 5-min intervals, time of day, full day, and day-of-the-week), and (b) exploring the spatial variation of multiple traffic-related variables (e.g., volumes, speeds, turn movements, and traffic light colors) provided by the sensors. We close with a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of our multiscale and multivariate visualization techniques. At microscale, we focused on intersection data from a shopping district around Shallowford Road in East Chattanooga. For mesoscale visualization, we studied the Shallowford Road corridor and an adjacent stretch of I-75. At macroscale, we included highway data from the Chattanooga Metropolitan Area. All visualizations were integrated into a web-based situational awareness tool to promote user access and interaction. At a minimum, each visualization provides the option for selecting dates for real-time (depending on sensor availability) and historical data, and additional information on hovering, though most provide more detailed information, including different views of the selected data, or interactive highlights.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cataloging Legacy Data from the Tritium Systems Test Assembly Program

The Tritium Systems Test Assembly (TSTA) at Los Alamos National Laboratory, operational from 1984 to 2001, was critical in advancing fusion fuel cycle technologies, including tritium storage, gas separation, and pumping. TSTA’s contributions, particularly in safe tritium operations, have influenced subsequent fusion projects. This paper discusses the ongoing effort to digitize and catalog TSTA’s historical data to create a searchable resource for the fusion research community. While the long-term objective is to develop a relational database for structured data management, the project remains in the early phase, with current efforts focused on scanning and indexing physical documents. Initial plans for database implementations are also presented, outlining key considerations for structure, query indexing, and standardization. As digitization progresses, future discussions will refine these implantation details to ensure an efficient and comprehensive system. This initiative aims to preserve critical legacy data, enhance the design of tritium system facilities, and support the next generation of fusion energy research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

UNCERTAINTY-AWARE DEEP LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING COASTAL WATER LEVEL IN VIRGINIA BEACH

Coastal areas like Virginia Beach, USA, are increasingly vulnerable to flooding. To mitigate the impact of flooding, it is crucial for the City of Virginia Beach to have reliable 72-hour-ahead (3 days) forecasts of water levels at key gauge locations. To support this effort, several sensors have been installed throughout the city to monitor water levels and other environmental parameters such as wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure. Leveraging sensor data from one of these locations, we developed an uncertainty-aware deep learning model to forecast water levels. We employed deep quantile regression (DQR) to quantify variability in the predictions and examined the performance of three different model architectures. In addition to exclusively including historical data, we investigated the improvement wind forecasts provide to the accuracy of 72-hour-ahead water level predictions. The results show a twelvefold improvement in the flood forecast for a real flooding event.

Hasan, Mahmud [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerat↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Century of Tidal Variability in the North Pacific Extracted from Hourly Geomagnetic Observatory Measurements at Honolulu

Previous analyses of hourly tide-gauge data taken at Honolulu since 1905 have shown that both sea level and the amplitude of the tides have increased synchronously over time, and a process has been proposed whereby the common cause is an increase in ocean temperature. Validation with independent data of this change in tides, as well as the proposed cause, has been lacking Ocean tides also generate magnetic fields that reach far outside the ocean, and tidal signals are clearly seen in the hourly data since 1905 from the Honolulu geomagnetic observatory. Here, it is found that the tidal amplitudes have increased synchronously in the tide-gauge and magnetic records, providing independent support for the previous results. Further information about the changing ocean is likely contained in the historical data from geomagnetic observatories as well as the global coverage of modern satellite magnetic surveys.

Robert H Tyler↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Mission Extensions: A New Look at Life Extensions and the Senior Review

Long term missions and data set are invaluable, especially to understand the occurrence and impact of extreme events. We continue to have many models rely on ground based indies such as sunspot number, kp, or the monthly averaged ap as they are some of our longest surviving datasets. This historical data allows us to better contextualize the events we see today, and provide us insights into the dynamics of the geospace and heliophysics environments. We know that kp and ap are not great measures of many types of dynamics - however we default to them due to their longevity. If we want to improve our understanding, our forecasts, and our relationships with users of our research, we must continuously and reliably provide newer datasets which better describe the underlying conditions.

Alexa J Halford↗

NASA NTRS2019

Providing Data Access and Analysis Capabilities to SERVIR’s Data-Sparse Regions

In developing regions of the world, the communications infrastructure pose enormous challenges for using Earth observation data. Limited internet bandwidth along with the high costs make it almost impossible to process and extract zonal statistics over large periods of time for even small geographic areas. In such cases, downloading daily rainfall data or dekadal series of NDVI data would take days and consume all the bandwidth allocated to an organization (for reference, internet connections in Niger would cost thousands of dollars per month at a maximum - and unreliable - bandwidth of just 10 Mbps). Running crop models or hydrological models typically require several years of historic data over the area of interest (AOI). In some cases, these AOIs are relatively small compared to the footprint of individual earth observation granules. Hence, systems that let the stakeholders subset the data to download to a user specified area, or even submit processing requests that let them download small result files for the AOI become critical. The SERVIR program has developed a tool to provide this type of access to help decision makers in developing regions use long time series of adjusted rainfall data (CHIRPS), NDVI values, seasonal weather forecasts, evaporative stress indices and others in a very efficient manner. This system, named ClimateSERV (https://climateserv.servirglobal.net) ingests the datasets in an automated fashion and allows interactive access (through a web application), or automated access through a simple API that developers can quickly incorporate in independent applications. This way, the extraction of daily averages of rainfall over a 50 square Km area through 30 years of archived data takes only a few seconds to process, and the results can be presented on an online chart or downloaded in a comma separated file that's only a few Kb.

Ashmall, William↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low Count and Background Radionuclides Analysis - 20488

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is often faced with the need to evaluate radionuclides at low concentrations. When site sample data are likely to be close to threshold activity concentrations of interest, then the means by which the radiochemical analysis is performed and reported is critical. This situation can occur when differentiating from zero (presence/absence) for radionuclides that do not occur naturally, close comparison with environmental background for naturally occurring radionuclides, close comparison with a risk- or dose-based threshold concentrations of interest, or even comparisons across studies. There are several analytical issues that are of concern, but the two that appear to cause incorrect decisions to be made most often involve establishing detection limits and subtracting ambient background conditions in the laboratory. These issues are not critical when radionuclide activity concentrations are large relative to thresholds of concern, but they seem to be poorly understood when it matters. When the comparisons are important and are likely to be close to a threshold of interest, then the general contract with the analytical laboratories needs to be changed so that the right or appropriate data are obtained. The concern is that important decisions are made incorrectly more often as greater scrutiny is placed on DoE's radionuclide cleanup or monitoring decisions by the public and other stakeholders. Examples are presented of problems that have been observed for different projects, both within and outside the realm of DOE and NRC remediation and radioactive waste disposal problems, and solutions are offered that should lead to better data from which important decisions need to be made. The first example is from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and involves radionuclide concentrations in soil and rock beneath LANL's Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. An initial review of the data led to a conclusion that americium and plutonium are a long way present beneath MDA G. A more thorough review of the data that accounted properly for ambient background and the detection limits that had been established led to the opposite conclusion. Another example is from the Nevada National Security Site where tritium results from one of the wells were unexpectedly high. Proper understanding and analysis of ambient background led to the conclusion that the increased concentrations were not so obvious, and that a different contract with the analytical laboratory was needed to provide more appropriate data to support a better determination. Other examples are used from regulatory review of projects in Nevada, where background levels and secular equilibrium for naturally occurring radionuclides are not established correctly because of analytical issues. The same basic issues have also been found to create difficulties analyzing historical data from the West Valley Demonstration Project. There is evidence in the data that the apparent lack of secular equilibrium where it is expected to exist is related to ambient background subtraction or other analytical issues. A final example is presented for analysis of Tc-99 in samples of depleted uranium. In this case, two different studies that were performed only three months apart provide quite different results. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the data quality objectives (DQO) process in the mid-1980's to establish decision performance criteria for data collection. EPA guidance (EPA G-4, for example) clearly distinguishes between DQOs and measurement performance objectives (MQOs) that should be addressed for laboratory analysis of samples. The language of DQOs and MQOs has become confused over time it seems, and the subsequent effects seem to include a lack of attention to decision performance and a routine approach to measurement quality. In order to better address radionuclide sample analysis when the concentrations are close to thresholds of concern, which might be zero for some radionuclides, background for others, and risk-based thresholds for yet others, it is important that routine laboratory analysis methods are adjusted, and that the project team and the laboratory work closely together to ensure that the data meets the MQO requirements of laboratory analysis and reporting of results, and that the MQOs effectively support project-specific DQOs. This basic approach will be applied in Los Alamos in the coming year to the collection of moisture data from underneath MDA T that will be analyzed for americium and neptunium isotopes. Proper understanding of the radiochemistry methods and reporting, and of appropriate statistical methods is critical to the success of such projects, ensuring that the right decisions are made. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Estimates of Long Term Surface Soil Moisture in the Midwestern U.S. Derived from Satellite Microwave Observations

Soil moisture is a key component of the water and energy balances of the Earth's surface, and has been identified as a parameter of significant potential for improving the accuracy of large-scale land surface-atmosphere interaction models. However, soil moisture is often somewhat difficult to measure accurately in both space and time, especially at large spatial scales. Soil moisture is highly variable, and while point measurements are typically quite accurate, subsequent areal averaging of these measurements often leads to large errors. Since remotely sensed land surface observations are already a spatially averaged or areally integrated value, they are a logical input parameter to regional or larger scale land process models. A database of long-term soil moisture was compared to satellite microwave observations over test sites in the Midwestern United States. Ground measurements of average volumetric surface soil moisture in the top ten cm were made bimonthly at 19 locations throughout the state of Illinois. Nighttime microwave brightness temperatures were observed at a frequency of 6.6 GHz, by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), onboard the Nimbus 7 satellite. The life of the SMMR instrument spanned from Nov. 1978 to Aug. 1987. At 6.6 GHz, the instrument provided a spatial resolution of approximately 150 km, and a temporal frequency over the test area of about 3 nighttime orbits per week. Vegetation radiative transfer characteristics, such as the canopy transmissivity, were estimated from vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the 37 GHz Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI). Because the time of satellite coverage does not always coincide with the ground measurements of soil moisture, the existing ground data were used to calibrate a water balance for the top IO cm surface layer in order to interpolate daily surface moisture values. Such a climate-based approach is often more appropriate for estimating large-area average soil moisture because meteorological data are generally more spatially representative than isolated point measurements of soil moisture, Passive microwave remote sensing presents the greatest potential for providing regular spatially representative estimates of surface soil moisture at global scales. Real time estimates should improve weather and climate modelling efforts, while the development of historical data sets will provide necessary information for simulation and validation of long-term climate and global change studies.

Owe, M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Planning the Unplanned Experiment: Towards Assessing the Efficacy of Standards for Safety-Critical Software

Safe use of software in safety-critical applications requires well-founded means of determining whether software is fit for such use. While software in industries such as aviation has a good safety record, little is known about whether standards for software in safety-critical applications 'work' (or even what that means). It is often (implicitly) argued that software is fit for safety-critical use because it conforms to an appropriate standard. Without knowing whether a standard works, such reliance is an experiment; without carefully collecting assessment data, that experiment is unplanned. To help plan the experiment, we organized a workshop to develop practical ideas for assessing software safety standards. In this paper, we relate and elaborate on the workshop discussion, which revealed subtle but important study design considerations and practical barriers to collecting appropriate historical data and recruiting appropriate experimental subjects. We discuss assessing standards as written and as applied, several candidate definitions for what it means for a standard to 'work,' and key assessment strategies and study techniques and the pros and cons of each. Finally, we conclude with thoughts about the kinds of research that will be required and how academia, industry, and regulators might collaborate to overcome the noted barriers.

Graydon, Patrick J.↗