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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Maria F. Adame↗
NASA NTRS2020

Object and Gas Source Detection with Robotic Platforms in Perceptually-Degraded Environments

In exploration-oriented robotic missions for disaster relief in unknown subterranean environments, it is of prime importance for a human supervisor to rapidly gain situational awareness of salient objects within the environment. In this paper we present an automated object detection pipeline that is adaptable to heterogeneous robots with arbitrary sensor configurations. It has been deployed in time-critical scenarios with multiple collaborative robots in a variety of demanding underground environments. For visually observable objects, detections are made in both the visible and thermal spectra using a state-of-the-art machine learning framework for object detection and classification. Our pipeline can be rapidly adapted to a specific task by using a small, structured dataset to fine-tune a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). Relative localization is separated from the CNN for speed of operation. A robust architecture for localization is used with outlier rejection and a hierarchy of fall-back distance measurement methods. Point-source objects such as gas and WiFi hotspots can also be detected, by tracking signal strength over time and presenting an intuitive visualization on a map. Observations of each object types are presented to the operator in ranked confidence order for final evaluation.

Agha-mohammadi, Ali-akbar↗
NASA NTRS2022

TESS Revisits WASP-12: Updated Orbital Decay Rate and Constraints on Atmospheric Variability

After observing WASP-12 in the second year of the primary mission, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) revisited the system in late 2021 during its extended mission. In this paper, we incorporate the new TESS photometry into a reanalysis of the transits, secondary eclipses, and phase curve. We also present a new Ks-band occultation observation of WASP-12b obtained with the Palomar/Wide-field Infrared Camera instrument. The latest TESS photometry spans three consecutive months, quadrupling the total length of the TESS WASP-12 light curve and extending the overall time baseline by almost two years. Based on the full set of available transit and occultation timings, we find that the orbital period is shrinking at a rate of −29.81 ± 0.94 ms yr−1. The additional data also increase the measurement precision of the transit depth, orbital parameters, and phase-curve amplitudes. We obtain a secondary eclipse depth of 466 ± 35 ppm, a 2σ upper limit on the nightside brightness of 70 ppm, and a marginal 6°.2 ± 2°.8 eastward offset between the dayside hotspot and the substellar point. The voluminous TESS data set allows us to assess the level of atmospheric variability on timescales of days, months, and years. We do not detect any statistically significant modulations in the secondary eclipse depth or day–night brightness contrast. Likewise, our measured Ks-band occultation depth of 2810 ± 390 ppm is consistent with most ∼2.2 μm observations in the literature.

Ian Wong↗
NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Sulfur Dioxide Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA): Application to TROPOMI Reveals New Emission Sources

Sensitive and accurate detection of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) from space is important for monitoring and estimating global sulfur emissions. Inspired by detection methods applied in the thermal infrared, we present here a new scheme to retrieve SO 2 columns from satellite observations of ultraviolet back-scattered radiances. The retrieval is based on a measurement error covariance matrix to fully represent the SO 2 -free radiance variability, so that the SO 2 slant column density is the only retrieved parameter of the algorithm. We demonstrate this approach, named COBRA, on measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) satellite. We show that the method reduces significantly both the noise and biases present in the current TROPOMI operational DOAS SO 2 retrievals. The performance of this technique is also benchmarked against that of the Principal Component Algorithm (PCA) approach. We find that the quality of the data is similar and even slightly better with the proposed COBRA approach. The ability of the algorithm to retrieve SO 2 accurately is also further supported by comparison with ground-based observations. We illustrate the great sensitivity of the method with a high-resolution global SO 2 map, considering two and a half years of TROPOMI data. In addition to the known sources, we detect many new SO 2 emission hotspots worldwide. For the largest sources, we use the COBRA data to estimate SO 2 emission rates. Results are comparable to other recently published TROPOMI-based SO 2 emissions estimates, but the associated uncertainties are significantly lower than with the operational data. Next, for a limited number of weak sources, we demonstrate the potential of our data for quantifying SO 2 emissions with a detection limit of about 8 kt yr -1 , a factor of 4 better than the emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We anticipate that the systematic use of our TROPOMI COBRA SO 2 column data set at a global scale will allow identifying and quantifying missing sources, and help improving SO 2 emission inventories.

SO2↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exploring Applications of Machine Learning for Wildfire Monitoring and Detection using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity around the world, including the United States. The losses caused by wildfires could be mitigated if high-risk areas, hotspots, and flare-ups could be monitored continuously, such as through the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper documents exploratory efforts using machine learning to determine efficient flight paths for UAVs and to detect wildfires using image classification. On path planning, three machine learning techniques—Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing, and Dynamic Programming—were explored. Genetic Algorithm was found to be an effective approach for path planning for wildfire monitoring and surveillance by UAVs. For a scenario of 25 locations in a circular arrangement, the algorithm was able to return the optimal path. The accuracy and execution time was found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected, which was especially evident in scenarios with hundreds or thousands of locations. Simulated Annealing was also found to be an effective approach for UAV path planning, with a major benefit of avoiding getting trapped in local minima and being straightforward to implement. Like Genetic Algorithm, the performance of Simulated Annealing was also found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected. By comparison, Dynamic Programming guarantees optimality for any number of locations, but it was found to be less practical in terms of execution time for scenarios with more than about a couple dozen locations. On wildfire detection, image classification using deep learning with a convolutional neural network was explored. Transfer learning was found to be a useful technique to efficiently train deep learning models. Also, it was determined that GPU processing can increase training speed by an order of magnitude, which enables significantly faster development. For a validation test set of 500 images, there were only two false negatives and zero false positives. These results demonstrate that detecting wildfires in static cameras using machine learning is feasible and establish a baseline for using images captured by UAVs in flight for wildfire detection.

Wildfire management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Conflicts in the Middle East

We analyzed the latest climate model projections (CMIP6) of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future changes in the Middle East. A baseline period (1981-2010) was compared with the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. The Tigris-Euphrates headwaters was identified as the hotspot of future compound effects of climate change in the region. In particular, the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) region is likely to see the most dramatic compound changes of any area in the Middle East. That assessment was based on the model projections that showed rapid warming, increased interannual precipitation variability, and decreased precipitation all coinciding in an area of massive irrigation development and known transboundary water tension. It is likely that GAP would exacerbate environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region, therefore its adverse impacts might outnumber its benefits in coming decades. This study attempts to warn decision-makers of the urgent need to integrate these trends to water resource planning and international negotiations.

Middle East↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

WET Water Resources: A Google Earth Engine Python API Tool to Automate Wetland Extent Mapping Using Radar Satellite Sensors for Wetland Management and Monitoring

Wetland ecosystems are annually or seasonally wet transition zones between land and water. They provide a range of ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood mitigation, and carbon sequestration, as well as hosting biodiversity hotspots. Although they fulfill fundamental physical and natural processes, wetland extent and health are threatened by anthropogenic influences related to urbanization, population increase, pollution, and climate change. Recognizing the need to quantitatively monitor changes in these recently threatened ecosystems in a timely and cost-effective way, we developed a Google Earth Engine (GEE) Python API tool for automated wetland extent mapping using optical and radar satellite sensors that can be applied globally. The tool will significantly improve wetland change analysis and monitoring as the optical and SAR data proves high resolution (5-10 m) imagery, and SAR data is unaffected by cloud cover and light availability (day vs. night), which are common limitations for other remotely sensed sensors. The tool utilizes Copernicus Sentinel-1 C-band and NISAR L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. During image preprocessing, we applied a MODIS snow mask product to mask global snow coverage, which would affect land classification sensitivity. Calibration and validation were conducted through a historical change and sensitivity analysis of the Sudd watershed located in central Sudan. The tool was the first of its kind, as it enables NISAR data processing through an open-source GEE repository, further expanding and improving the utility of NASA Earth observations and contributing to NASA Open Science initiatives. We anticipate the tool will be used by researchers and practitioners interested in wetland monitoring and management..

Lori Berberian↗
NASA NTRS2023

Global Droughts Connected By Linkages Between Drought Hubs

Quantifying the spatial and interconnected structure of regional to continental scale droughts is one of the unsolved global hydrology problems, which is important for understanding the looming risk of mega-scale droughts and the resulting water and food scarcity and their cascading impact on the worldwide economy. Using a Complex Network analysis, this study explores the topological characteristics of global drought events based on the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Event Synchronization is used to measure the strength of association between the onset of droughts at different spatial locations within the time lag of 1-3 months. The network coefficients derived from the synchronization network indicate a highly heterogeneous connectivity structure underlying global drought events. Drought hotspot regions such as Southern Europe, Northeast Brazil, Australia, and Northwest USA behave as drought hubs that synchronize regionally and with other hubs at inter-continental or even inter-hemispheric scale. This observed affinity among drought hubs is equivalent to the ‘rich-club phenomenon’ in Network Theory, where ‘rich’ nodes (here, drought hubs) are tightly interconnected to form a club, implicating the possibility of simultaneous large-scale droughts over multiple continents.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2023

WET Water Resources: A Google Earth Engine Python API Tool to Automate Wetland Extent Mapping Using Radar Satellite Sensors for Wetland Management and Monitoring

Wetland ecosystems are annually or seasonally wet transition zones between land and water. They provide a range of ecosystem services such as water filtration, flood mitigation, and carbon sequestration, as well as hosting biodiversity hotspots. Although they fulfill fundamental physical and natural processes, wetland extent and health are threatened by anthropogenic influences related to urbanization, population increase, pollution, and climate change. Recognizing the need to quantitatively monitor changes in these recently threatened ecosystems in a timely and cost-effective way, we developed a Google Earth Engine (GEE) Python API tool for automated wetland extent mapping using optical and radar satellite sensors that can be applied globally. The tool will significantly improve wetland change analysis and monitoring as SAR data provides high resolution (5-10 m) imagery, unaffected by cloud cover and light availability (day vs. night), common limitations for other remotely sensed sensors. The tool utilizes Copernicus Sentinel-1 C-band and NISAR L-band (once operational and available on the GEE repository) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. During image preprocessing, we applied a Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow product to determine regional snow coverage, which affects land classification sensitivity. Calibration and validation were conducted through a historical change and sensitivity analysis of the Sudd wetland located in central Sudan. The tool was the first of its kind, as it enables NISAR data processing through an open-source GEE repository, further expanding and improving the utility of NASA Earth observations and contributing to NASA Open Science initiatives. We anticipate the tool will be used by researchers and practitioners interested in wetland monitoring and management.

Inundation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Two Decades of Land Cover Change and Forest Fragmentation in Liberia: Consequences for the Contribution of Nature to People

The Guinean forests of West Africa have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot due to its exceptional concentrations of endemic species and exceptional loss of habitats. The majority of what remains of the Guinean forests lies within Liberia, a country whose share of total wealth is nearly equally distributed into human and natural capital. The Liberian government seeks a more inclusive development agenda that forges a path for improved human capital while sustainably managing its natural capital wealth, which requires consistent data on land cover change and forest disturbance over time. To address this need, Landsat data were used to map and quantify land cover change and forest fragmentation in Liberia between 2000 and 2018. In addition, LiDAR data from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission were applied to assess the integrity of forest remnants. Between 2000 and 2018, only 1% of all forest cover classes (i.e., dense/primary, open/secondary and sparse/degraded) were converted into non-forest classes, with the most observed change being between these three forest classes. During the study period, 27% of the dense/primary forest class transitioned to either the open/secondary or sparse/degraded canopy classes through consistent fragmentation along the edges of the last large remaining blocks of dense/primary forest located in the north-west and south-east of Liberia and more than 14% of dense/primary forest areas identified in previous studies as “essential natural capital” for either biodiversity, forest carbon storage or provision of freshwater ecosystem services were degraded. The 2018 GEDI-based measurements show that the overall average height of dense/primary forest decreases by 24% and 48%, and canopy closure decreases by 33% and 59%, when transitioned to the open/secondary and sparse/degraded classes, respectively. The information derived from this analysis will be critical for informing the development of new policies and actions, leading to more sustainable forest management in Liberia.

Celio De Sousa↗
NASA NTRS2023

Compact Lightweight Aerial Sensor System (CLASSy)

In the wake of increasingly intense wildfires, innovative solutions are imperative to enhance wildfire mitigation strategies. Current technological integrations have hit a communicative limit. Between limited flight time, computational expenses as well as financial expenses, there is a hole in the market for an effective, low-tech, and disposable solution. The Compact Lightweight Aerial Sensor System (CLASSy) is designed to revolutionize active disaster operations through comprehensive decision support. CLASSy consists of a lightweight launch mechanism and a flight body equipped with a sensor package and parachute. The assembly integrates sensor networks with data analytics to provide real-time, high-resolution information to incident commanders, directly facilitating decision-making and resource allocation. Infrared imagery and temperature differentials are processed and analyzed throughout flight, offering valuable insights into fire behavior, hotspot detection, and fire spread trajectories. CLASSy is intended to meet a variety of natural disaster mitigation needs through its variable launch height and disposability. CLASSy’s goal is to assist wildfire fighting without taking up any human or material resources. As a result, CLASSy is as lightweight as possible, easily expendable, inexpensive to manufacture, and only requires one operator for effective use. CLASSy’s integrated sensor suite, real-time analytics, and closed loop active communications empower firefighting teams to proactively address wildfire challenges. As the frequency of wildfires continues to rise, technological innovations like CLASSy are crucial to effective wildfire management systems.

Kyleigh Anderson↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Multi-Satellite Framework to Rapidly Evaluate Extreme Biosphere Cascades: The Western US 2021 Drought and Heatwave

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low-latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO 2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated 28 independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Causal model↗
NASA NTRS2023

Highly Resolved Mapping of NO 2 Vertical Column Densities From GeoTASO Measurements Over a Megacity and Industrial Area During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign is a joint study between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the South Korea National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) to monitor megacity and transboundary air pollution around the Korean Peninsula using airborne and ground-based measurements. Here, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) slant column density (SCD) measurements were retrieved from Geostationary Trace and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) L1B data during the KORUS-AQ campaign (2 May to 10 June 2016). The retrieved SCDs were converted to tropospheric vertical column densities using the air mass factor (AMF) obtained from a radiative transfer calculation with trace gas profiles and aerosol property inputs simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and surface reflectance data obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the first time, we examine highly resolved (250 m × 250 m resolution) tropospheric NO 2 over the Seoul and Busan metropolitan regions and the industrial region of Anmyeon. We reveal that the maximum NO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs) were 4.94×10 16 and 1.46×10 17 molec. cm −2 at 09:00 and 15:00 LT over Seoul, respectively, 6.86×10 16 and 4.89×10 16 molec. cm −2 in the morning and afternoon over Busan, respectively, and 1.64×10 16 molec. cm −2 over Anmyeon. The VCDs retrieved from the GeoTASO airborne instrument were correlated with those obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (r=0.48), NASA's Pandora Spectrometer System (r=0.91), and NO 2 mixing ratios obtained from in situ measurements (r=0.07 in the morning, r=0.26 in the afternoon over the Seoul, and r>0.56 over Busan). Based on our results, GeoTASO is useful for identifying NO 2 hotspots and their spatial distribution in highly populated cities and industrial areas.

Gyo-Hwang Choo↗
NASA NTRS2024

Land Cover Change Analysis and Spatial Variations in Southeast Asian Nations: Insights on Spatial Scale Dynamics

Land cover type is a fundamental aspect of studies using remote sensing for environmental analysis such as monitoring deforestation, quantifying wildland fire emissions, and more. There are many land cover products available for varying time periods and spatial resolutions, each with different land cover class definitions and number of land cover classes. These differences yield inherent variation in land cover estimates. In this study, we explore the spatial and areal variation between two major datasets for their commonly available time of 2018 to 2022 (MODIS 500m Land Cover and Esri Sentinel-2 10m land cover) in the continental Southeast Asia countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. To enable comparison, we resampled the datasets and reclassified the land cover classes to a common scheme. Major disagreement was detected between Esri and MODIS, especially for the wetlands/flooded vegetation class in which only 3.6% of pixels were in agreement. In addition to quantifying variation between the datasets, we quantify land cover change at the decadal scale of 2001, 2011, and 2021 for each country and identified province-level hotspots of land cover change. Cambodia experienced the highest rate of land cover change with 67.8% of total land area changed, followed by Vietnam (58.6%), Laos (50.2%), Myanmar (46.9%), and Thailand (46.3%). The highest rate of land cover change was detected in Odtar Mean Chey, Cambodia, which had large swaths of forest area cleared for agricultural production, river damming, and more. Ultimately, many areas in the region experienced forest clearing for crop production (i.e. rice) which appeared to be classified as wetland in the MODIS product, and crop in the Esri product. Myanmar was the only country which did not experience net decline in forest area over the 2001 to 2021 time period.

Land Cover Change↗
NASA NTRS2023

Predicting Patterns of Solar Energy Buildout to Identify Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation

The construction of solar energy facilities can have positive or negative impacts on biodiversity depending on siting and associated land use transitions. We identified drivers of solar siting and quantified patterns of buildout in states surrounding the Chesapeake Bay watershed – a biodiversity hotspot with numerous ecosystem services. Using a convolutional neural network, we mapped the footprints of ground-mounted solar arrays present in satellite imagery annually from 2017 to 2021 in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, and West Virginia. As of 2021, we identified 958 solar arrays covering 52.3 km2 built primarily on previously cultivated land, while avoiding natural landcover. We fit a binomial-Weibull model to these solar timeseries data in a hierarchical, Bayesian framework to quantify the relationship between geospatial covariates and rate of solar development. Solar array construction rate increased in cultivated areas, areas of lower agricultural suitability, lower slope, lower forest cover, lower biodiversity protection, and greater distances from roads. We also estimated changes in the rate of solar construction over time and found differences among states: acceleration in Virginia and deceleration in New York. We used parameter estimates to map the relative likelihood of future solar development across the study area. This methodology can be used to anticipate where solar is likely to be built in different landscapes and how these patterns align with conservation goals. Around the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the selection of lower quality agricultural areas for solar energy minimizes removal of important habitat and provides opportunities for native plant and pollinator restoration.

Artificial Intelligence↗
NASA NTRS2024

Asheville Urban Development II: Mapping Urban Heat to Support Cooling Initiatives and Climate Resilience Planning in the Greater Asheville Area

Asheville, North Carolina experiences the urban heat island effect, where temperatures in the city are higher than in surrounding rural areas. This effect intensifies with increased urbanization and less vegetative cover. Asheville’s urban heat island was exacerbated by population increases and tree cover decline, escalating the need for heat mitigation. We partnered with the City of Asheville’s Sustainability Department and Asheville GreenWorks whose actions prioritize sustainable city planning and equitable climate resilience. Using NASA Earth observations and ancillary datasets we spatially mapped urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity from 2019-2023. To map urban heat, we used Landsat 8 and 9 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor for land surface temperature and albedo data and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station for evapotranspiration data. We assessed heat vulnerability using the urban heat data andthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index. To evaluate cooling and adaptive capacity we used the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, integrating our heat vulnerability analysis with land use and cover data from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Rada rand Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument. Our results revealed distinct spatial patterns of urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity in Asheville with downtown as the focal hotspot and an outward decreasing radial pattern. These findings highlight targeted need for interventions to reduce heat impacts, address environmental injustices, and enhance climate resilience. Our project provided research to local organizations that can be used for heat mitigation in the greater Asheville area.

Authors not in NED but are confirmed contractors. ↗
NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗