Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “hybrid prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Science-informed Machine Learning to Increase Recovery Efficiency in Unconventional Reservoirs

Production of hydrocarbons from fractured, unconventional reservoirs is inherently inefficient. But machine learning offers a pathway both to increasing recovery efficiency at a site and to improving forecasts of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. Los Alamos—in partnership with DOE, NETL, and WVU—has been developing a science-informed workflow and platform for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which will allow an operator to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. This work relies on a hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (in combination with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. The physics-based prediction is built upon experimental and theoretical work to determine transport characteristics in shale at various scales, with an emphasis on materials from MSEEL-I; this fundamental shale R&D was conducted in partnership with DOE, NETL, and several other national labs. This work has resulted from a coordinated leveraging of developments across several projects within DOE FE30, along with internal investments from Los Alamos via LDRD. The development has utilized data from the MSEEL–I site for calibration and demonstration; however, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins. This machine-learning method can aid operators to improve both recovery efficiency and competitiveness; to this end, future work would quantify processes for other plays/basins and integrate production details with economics.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗

Liapunov stability analysis of hybrid dynamical systems with multi-elastic domains.

This paper presents a Liapunov stability theory applicable to hybrid systems with multi-elastic domains. The mathematical formulation consists of a simultaneous set of ordinary and partial differential equations. A new stability theorem, particularly suited to such hybrid systems, is introduced. To predict the system stability by means of the theorem, it is necessary to construct a functional k, where k is free of spatial derivatives and bounding the Hamiltonian H from below. The conditions under which the construction of such a functional is possible are shown. As an application of the theory, the attitude stability of an earth-pointing satellite with multi-elastic domains is investigated and closed-form stability criteria derived.

Meirovitch, L.↗

Analysis of a unidirectional, symmetric buffer strip laminate with damage

A method for predicting the fracture behavior of hybrid buffer strip laminates is presented in which the classical shear-lag model is used to represent the shear stress distribution between adjacent fibers. The method is demonstrated by applying it to a notched graphite/epoxy laminate, and the results show clearly the manner in which the most efficient combination of buffer strip properties can be selected in order to arrest the crack. The ultimate failure stress of the laminate is plotted vs the buffer strip width. It is shown that in the case of graphite-epoxy and S-glass epoxy laminates, the optimum buffer strip spacing to width ratio should be about four to one.

Dharani, L. R.↗

Analysis of woven fabrics for reinforced composite materials

The use of woven fabrics as reinforcements for composites is considered. Methods of analysis of properties are reviewed and extended, with particular attention paid to three-dimensional constructions having through-the-thickness reinforcements. Methodology developed is used parametrically to evaluate the performance potential of a wide variety of reinforcement constructions including hybrids. Comparisons are made of predicted and measured properties of representative composites having biaxial and triaxial woven, and laminated tape lay-up reinforcements. Overall results are incorporated in advanced weave designs.

Dow, Norris F.↗

The role of plasma wave turbulence in the formation of shock waves in collisionless plasmas

A data set containing measurements for approximately 100 shock crossings was compiled, and plasma wave profiles were plotted in conjunction with magnetic field data. Three emissions analyzed include upstream electron plasma oscillations, ion acoustic noise, and low frequency electromagnetic noise. The data demonstrate that the observed waves are consistent with generation by the kinetic cross-field streaming instability. Reanalysis of shock overshoots prompted by the presence of plasma feet upstream of nominally subcritical shocks leads to the conclusion that no firm evidence exists for a sharp subcritical supercritical transition. Electron plasma oscillations persist up to the ramps of subcritical shocks and begin decaying at the front edge of the feet of supercritical shocks. Their intensity is anticorrelated with the amplitude of the foot ion acoustic noise. Wave measurements support the predicted predominance of lower hybrid-like modes over ion acoustic noise in the production of resistive (plasma) heating. Evidence for variable shock normal angles is seen upstream from nominally quasiparallel shocks. The first cases of very strong electron heating observed at the terrestrial bow shock were discovered.

Mellott, M. M.↗

Pitch-Learning Algorithm For Speech Encoders

Adaptive algorithm detects and corrects errors in sequence of estimates of pitch period of speech. Algorithm operates in conjunction with techniques used to estimate pitch period. Used in such parametric and hybrid speech coders as linear predictive coders and adaptive predictive coders.

Bhaskar, B. R. Udaya↗

Scattering of Lamb waves in a composite plate

A combined analytical and finite element technique is developed to gain a better understanding of the scattering of elastic waves by defects. This hybrid method is capable of predicting scattered displacements from arbitrary shaped defects as well as inclusions of different material. The continuity of traction and displacements at the boundaries of the two areas provided the necessary equations to find the nodal displacements and expansion coefficients. Results clearly illustrate the influence of increasing crack depth on the scattered signal.

Bratton, Robert↗

Four Point Measurements of the Foreshock

Hybrid code numerical simulations accurately predict the properties of the Earth's foreshock, a region populated by solar wind particles heated and reflected by their interaction with the bow shock. The thermal pressures associated with the reflected population suffice to substantially modify the oncoming solar wind, substantially reducing densities, velocities, and magnetic field strengths, but enhance temperatures. Enhanced thermal pressures cause the foreshock to expand at the expense of the ambient solar wind, creating a boundary that extends approx.10 RE upstream which is marked by enhanced densities and magnetic field strengths, and flows deflected away from the foreshock. We present a case study of Cluster plasma and magnetic field observations of this boundary.

Sibeck, D. G.↗

Planning and Monitoring for Swarm Search and Service Missions

To transition from control theory to real applications, it is important to study missions such as Swarm Search and Service (SSS) where vehicles are not only required to search an area, but also service all jobs that they find. In SSS missions each type of job requires a group of vehicles to break-off from the swarm for a given amount of time to successfully service it. The required number of vehicles and the service rate are unique to each job type. Once a job has been completed the vehicles are able to return to the swarm for use elsewhere. If not enough vehicles are present in the swarm at the time that the job is identified, that job is dropped without being serviced. Human operators as tasked with effectively planning and managing these complex missions. This work presents a user study that seeks to test the efficacy and ease-of-use of a prediction model known as the Hybrid Model as an aid in planning and monitoring tasks. Results show that the novel computational model aid allows operators to more effectively choose the necessary swarm size to handle expected mission workload, as well as, maintain sufficient situation awareness to evaluate the performance of the swarm during missions.

swarm search and service↗

Planning and Monitoring Multi-Job Type Swarm Search and Service Missions

To transition from control theory to real applications, it is important to study missions such as Swarm Search and Service (SSS) where vehicles are not only required to search an area, but also service all jobs that they find. In SSS missions, each type of job requires a group of vehicles to break off from the swarm for a given amount of time to service it. The required number of vehicles and the service rate are unique to each job type. Once a job has been completed, the vehicles are able to return to the swarm for use elsewhere. If not, enough vehicles are present in the swarm at the time that the job is identified, that job is dropped without being serviced. In SSS missions that occur in open environments, the arrival rate of jobs varies dynamically as vehicles move in and out of the swarm to service jobs. Human operators are tasked with effectively planning and managing these complex missions. This paper presents a user study that seeks to test the efficacy and ease-of-use of a prediction model known as the Hybrid Model as an aid in planning and monitoring tasks. Results show that the novel computational model aid allows operators to more effectively choose the necessary swarm size to handle expected mission workload, as well as, maintain sufficient situation awareness to evaluate the performance of the swarm during missions.

swarm search and service↗

ClimSim: A large multi-scale dataset for hybrid physics-ML climate emulation

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore’s Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to MLexperts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. Wepresent ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator’s macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res2) and code(https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim)arereleasedopenlytosupport the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

artificial intelligence, machine learning↗

Transient Modeling of Hybrid Rocket Low Frequency Instabilities

A comprehensive dynamic model of a hybrid rocket has been developed in order to understand and predict the transient behavior including instabilities. A linearized version of the transient model predicted the low-frequency chamber pressure oscillations that are commonly observed in hybrids. The source of the instabilities is based on a complex coupling of thermal transients in the solid fuel, wall heat transfer blocking due to fuel regression rate and the transients in the boundary layer that forms on the fuel surface. The oscillation frequencies predicted by the linearized theory are in very good agreement with 43 motor test results obtained from the hybrid propulsion literature. The motor test results used in the comparison cover a very wide spectrum of parameters including: 1) four separate research and development programs, 2) three different oxidizers (LOX, GOX, N2O), 3) a wide range of motor dimensions (i.e. from 5 inch diameter to 72 inch diameter) and operating conditions and 4) several fuel formulations. A simple universal scaling formula for the frequency of the primary oscillation mode is suggested.

Karabeyoglu, M. Arif↗

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Predicting the chemical space of fungal polyketides by phylogeny-based bioinformatics analysis of polyketide synthase-nonribosomal peptide synthetase and its modification enzymes

Fungal polyketide synthase (PKS)–nonribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) hybrids are key enzymes for synthesizing structurally diverse hybrid natural products (NPs) with characteristic biological activities. Predicting their chemical space is of particular importance in the field of natural product chemistry. However, the unexplored programming rule of the PKS module has prevented prediction of its chemical structure based on amino acid sequences. Here, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 884 PKS–NRPS hybrids and a modification enzyme analysis of the corresponding biosynthetic gene cluster, revealing a hidden relationship between its genealogy and core structures. This unexpected result allowed us to predict 18 biosynthetic gene cluster (BGC) groups producing known carbon skeletons (number of BGCs; 489) and 11 uncharacterized BGC groups (171). The limited number of carbon skeletons suggests that fungi tend to select PK skeletons for survival during their evolution. The possible involvement of a horizontal gene transfer event leading to the diverse distribution of PKS–NRPS genes among fungal species is also proposed. This study provides insight into the chemical space of fungal PKs and the distribution of their biosynthetic gene clusters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Denitrification and the challenge of scaling microsite knowledge to the globe

Here, our knowledge of microbial processes—who is responsible for what, the rates at which they occur, and the substrates consumed and products produced—is imperfect for many if not most taxa, but even less is known about how microsite processes scale to the ecosystem and thence the globe. In both natural and managed environments, scaling links fundamental knowledge to application and also allows for global assessments of the importance of microbial processes. But rarely is scaling straightforward: More often than not, process rates in situ are distributed in a highly skewed fashion, under the influence of multiple interacting controls, and thus often difficult to sample, quantify, and predict. To date, quantitative models of many important processes fail to capture daily, seasonal, and annual fluxes with the precision needed to effect meaningful management outcomes. Nitrogen cycle processes are a case in point, and denitrification is a prime example. Statistical models based on machine learning can improve predictability and identify the best environmental predictors but are—by themselves—insufficient for revealing process-level knowledge gaps or predicting outcomes under novel environmental conditions. Hybrid models that incorporate well-calibrated process models as predictors for machine learning algorithms can provide both improved understanding and more reliable forecasts under environmental conditions not yet experienced. Incorporating trait-based models into such efforts promises to improve predictions and understanding still further, but much more development is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗