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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Psychological Distress and Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in the United States: Results from the 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index Record Linkage Study

Objective: This study examines the association between psychological distress and Alzheimer’s disease mortality among US adults aged ≥45. Methods: We analyzed the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s mortality using the pooled 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)- National Death Index (NDI) database ( N = 265,089). Cox regression was used to model mortality as a function of psychological distress and sociodemographic and behavioral covariates. Results: The Alzheimer’s mortality risk was 97% higher (HR = 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.84) in adults with serious psychological distress compared with those without psychological distress, controlling for sociodemographic covariates. The relative mortality risk remained statistically significant (HR = 1.49; 95% CI = 1.04, 2.13) after additional adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption, health status, activity limitation, and body mass index. Discussion: US adults had significantly higher risks of Alzheimer’s disease mortality at higher psychological distress levels. These findings underscore the significance of addressing psychological well-being as a strategy for reducing Alzheimer’s disease mortality.

Singh, Gopal K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗
DOE OSTI2026

New thermal-relic targets for sub-GeV dark matter direct detection

Dark matter direct detection experiments involving electron recoils are beginning to test highly predictive, thermal-relic milestones for sub-GeV dark matter models. Due to the Lee-Weinberg bound, thermal dark matter candidates in this mass range necessarily require comparably light mediator particles to achieve a suitably large annihilation cross section. Here we present new thermal-relic milestones for sub-GeV dark matter candidates that couple to vector mediators. In these models, the mediators are massive gauge bosons of anomaly-free Abelian extensions to the Standard Model, including the dark photon, gauged L i - L j , B - L , and B - 3 L i models, where B is the baryon number, L is the lepton number, and i , j index the lepton families. Since the same interactions that govern cosmological production also govern electron scattering, the targets we present are firmly predictive and allow for these models to be robustly discovered or falsified. Furthermore, since the mediators we study exhaust the minimal anomaly-free U(1) extensions to the Standard Model, our results offer a complete list of predictive milestones for sub-GeV dark matter coupled to vector mediators.

Han, Xu [Chicago U.] (ORCID:0009000821607836)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Why is it still too warm or cold in my house? Examining the relationships between energy efficient capital and household energy insecurity

Here, this paper examines the relationships between energy efficient (EE) capital technology and household energy insecurity in the United States. The theoretical model of these relationships employs household production theory to capture the demand for and production of household energy services, and a stochastic production frontier approach to describe how having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology could help alleviate inefficiency in the production of household energy services. A working hypothesis formulated from the theoretical model posits that having EE capital technology in the home will reduce the level of household energy insecurity experienced. The extent of energy insecurity experienced is inferred from an energy insecurity index value assigned to each household, generated via the application of a dichotomous Rasch model to questions contained in the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Noting the potential simultaneous relationship that exists between a household having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology and the experience of being energy insecure, an instrumental variables approach was employed to estimate a series of ordered logit models. Results suggest access to EE capital technology in the form of Energy Star® appliances, Energy Star® windows, or a SMART thermostat does not reduce the probability of experiencing a greater level of energy insecurity. Nor does the usage intensity of EE capital. Thus, policy instruments designed to alleviate household energy insecurity may need to go beyond simply helping households obtain EE capital technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sweeping Horndeski canvas: new growth-rate parameterization for modified-gravity theories

We propose and numerically validate a new fitting formula that is sufficiently accurate to model the growth of structure in Horndeski theories of modified gravity for upcoming Stage IV and V large-scale structure surveys. Based on an analysis of more than 18,000 Horndeski models and adopting the popular parameterization of the growth rate f(z) = Ω M (z) γ , we generalize the constant growth index γ to a two-parameter redshift-dependent quantity, γ(z), that more accurately fits these models. We demonstrate that the functional form γ(z) = γ 0 + γ 0 z 2 /(1 + z) improves the median χ2 of the fit to viable Horndeski models by a factor of ~40 relative to that of a constant γ, and is sufficient to obtain unbiased results even for precise measurements expected in Stage IV and V surveys. Finally, we constrain the parameters of the new fitting formula using current cosmological data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Online Prototype Toolset for Predicting and Optimizing P&T Performance (FY23 Status Report)

A new web-based toolset is being developed to support ongoing remediation optimization efforts and implementation of an adaptive site management strategy for the 200 West Area Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system at the Hanford Site. This toolset, comprising the well performance index tool and the well optimization pre-screening tool, will offer a user-friendly interface to predict and optimize the P&T well network’s performance at a preliminary level. Efforts in fiscal year (FY) 2023 focused on three main components: updating the existing deep learning model for predicting P&T performance, designing and developing a prototype of a web-based performance index tool, and initiating the conceptual design of the well optimization pre-screening tool. The well performance index tool is based on a pre-trained deep learning model that allows users to select a target contaminant and well screen length, then visualize the predicted performance of potential new wells across the site. The well optimization pre-screening tool includes two separate modules: the pre-computed scenario viewer, which organizes and visualizes offline optimization simulation results, and the quick analysis module, which provides real-time model prediction using user-specified well locations. In FY24, the plan is to add web-based applications to SOCRATES for both the well performance prediction tool and the optimization prescreening tool, with accompanying user and theory guides. These tools are intended to enable an accessible, easily applied, and transparent approach to remedy planning and decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Laboratory-based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Additionally, there is a growing concern on characterizing the non-uniformity of field exposure. Therefore, data from field surveys are critical to assess the performance of component lifetimes. Using a documented field survey protocol, 19 field surveys were conducted. The focus of this survey strategy is to investigate spatial continuity in degradation modes. By combining field survey data with real-time satellite weather data, stressor / response models have been trained. Generalized additive Models (GAM) model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. Two different GAM constructions were testing using different implementations of basis splines. The model includes variables on the environmental stressors of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The incorporation of hierarchical structure into the models allowed for material specific degradation rates, while maintaining the assumption of a global trend. The model performed well with an adjusted R2 of 0.975 for yellowness index prediction.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rates and delay times of type Ia supernovae in the Dark Energy Survey

We use a sample of 809 photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) along with 40 415 field galaxies to calculate the rate of SNe Ia per galaxy in the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.6. We recover the known correlation between SN Ia rate and galaxy stellar mass across a broad range of scales 8.5 ≤ log (M*/M ⊙ ) ≤ 11.25. We find that the SN Ia rate increases with stellar mass as a power law with index 0.63 ± 0.02, which is consistent with the previous work. We use an empirical model of stellar mass assembly to estimate the average star formation histories (SFHs) of galaxies across the stellar mass range of our measurement. Combining the modelled SFHs with the SN Ia rates to estimate constraints on the SN Ia delay time distribution (DTD), we find that the data are fit well by a power-law DTD with slope index β = –1.13 ± 0.05 and normalization A = 2.11 ± 0.05 × 10 –13 SNe M ⊙ –1 yr –1 , which corresponds to an overall SN Ia production efficiency N Ia /M * = 0.9 $^{+4.0}_{–0.7}$ × 10 –3 SNe M$^{–1}_{⊙}$. Upon splitting the SN sample by properties of the light curves, we find a strong dependence on DTD slope with the SN decline rate, with slower-declining SNe exhibiting a steeper DTD slope. We interpret this as a result of a relationship between intrinsic luminosity and progenitor age, and explore the implications of the result in the context of SN Ia progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fe Oxidation and Species Distribution at the Rock–Fluid Interface of Marcellus Shale Reacted with Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid

Hydraulic fracturing of shale reservoirs resulted in significant opportunity for increased oil and gas production in the United States. Rock-fluid interactions can cause mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions that lead to permeability changes in the shale matrix, which ultimately may affect transport pathways and hydrocarbon production. Understanding the distribution of secondary precipitates, such as barite and Fe(III) (hydro)oxides, and cation leaching at the rock-fluid interface is an important step to further investigate how these geochemical processes can change permeability and transport pathways. In this study, thin sections of the fracture-matrix interface were made from reacted Marcellus shale cores. The thin sections were characterized using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging and synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Fe species with different oxidation states were identified in the maps, together with barite and Ca distribution. The results show that ferrihydrite, as newly formed Fe(III)-bearing precipitates, aligned well with the border of the Ca (e.g., calcite) leaching region in the reaction front. Some Fe-containing clay also dissolved, but the dissolution region for the clay was not as deep as the calcite. Further, the reaction front is about three times deeper in the direction parallel to the shale bedding than that perpendicular to the bedding. The Ca leaching region can be an index for reaction front detection for Marcellus shale. Reactive transport modeling was conducted and the predicted Ca leaching boarder align well with ferrihydrite precipitation, consistent with the experimental observation. The carbonate mineral dissolution can be crucial to promote fluid access into the shale matrix. Together with our previous study on the shale reactive surface, this follow-up study showed similar Ca leaching region and Fe(III) precipitates distribution in the reaction front regardless of barite precipitation on the surface, indicating that the barite coatings on the surface may not pose a significant impact on reactive transport at the shale-fluid interface.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 constraints on extended cosmological models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model, ΛCDM, and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from the Planck mission. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1. To test the dependence of our results on non-ACT data, we also explore combinations replacing Planck with WMAP and DESI with BOSS, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index dn s /d ln k = 0.0062 ± 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N eff = 2.86 ± 0.13, which combined with astrophysical measurements of primordial helium and deuterium abundances becomes N eff = 2.89 ± 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (∑m ν < 0.089 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N idr < 0.134), or for early-universe variation of fundamental constants, including the fine-structure constant (α EM /α EM,0 = 1.0043 ± 0.0017) and the electron mass (m e /m e,0 = 1.0063 ± 0.0056). Our data are consistent with standard big bang nucleosynthesis (we find Y p = 0.2312 ± 0.0092), the COBE/FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature (we find T CMB = 2.698 ± 0.016 K), a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant (w = -0.986 ± 0.025), and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity (γ = 0.663 ± 0.052). We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline ΛCDM model. In fits to models invoking early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or an arbitrary modified recombination history, we find H 0 = 69.9 +0.8 -1.5 , 69.1 ± 0.5, or 69.6 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc, respectively; using BOSS instead of DESI BAO data reduces the central values of these constraints by 1–1.5 km/s/Mpc while only slightly increasing the error bars. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored over ΛCDM by our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scoping study of lower hybrid current drive for CFETR

The paper assesses the applicability of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) for two potential operating scenarios for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR): the “hybrid” scenario in which some of the plasma current is sustained by the Ohmic transformer, and the fully non-inductive “steady state” scenario. Here, the πScope workflow engine was used to set up a large number of ray tracing/Fokker-Planck simulations (> 10 4 ) with parametric scans in the antenna poloidal position and launched parallel refractive index (n || ) for both the hybrid and steady state scenarios. Modeling predicts efficient off-axis current drive (1.3 MA for 20 MW launched power) with a peak near ρ of 0.6-0.65 for waves launched from the high field side (HFS). Waves launched from the low field side (LFS) damp at larger radius (ρ > 0.73) with similar efficiency to HFS launch. Stability analysis of the CFETR scenarios favors current drive profiles peaked near the mid-radius, suggesting that HFS launch is preferable due to the current drive location. The effect of wave scattering from density blobs in the edge/scrape-off-layer region was assessed through rotation of the perpendicular wavenumber at the ray origin. Simulations show that this effect can be quite large both in efficiency and damping location, however by adjusting the launched n|| much of the unperturbed performance can be recovered.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interseasonal Connections between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice

Connections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere and Arctic sea ice in summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates the winter stratosphere before breaking down each spring, which is called the stratospheric final warming, as solar radiation returns to the pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown is dynamically driven, leading to different springtime tropospheric and surface circulation patterns. To examine the different impacts of delayed and early final warmings, a multimodel composite was generated from selected CMIP5 models. Additionally, regressions were performed on JRA-55 against an index of springtime polar vortex strength. In both the multimodel composites and reanalysis regressions, significant anomalies in sea ice thickness persist several months following an anomalous timing of the final warming. A later final warming or stronger springtime polar stratospheric vortex leads to negative sea ice thickness anomalies in the East Siberian Sea and positive anomalies in the Beaufort Sea in comparison with an earlier final warming or weaker polar vortex. The spring polar stratospheric vortex is related to spring polar surface circulation patterns. The winds associated with this pattern induce anomalous sea ice motion, moving ice from the East Siberian Sea toward the Beaufort Sea. Reduced sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is linked to anomalous warmth over this region in autumn. Our results suggest that the timing of the stratospheric final warming exerts an influence on the tropospheric circulation and sea ice through autumn, which has implications for seasonal climate prediction.

Kelleher, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-model files associated with the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in the manuscript titled "The Importance of Explicitly Representing the Streambed in Watershed Models" (Shuai et al., 2023 HP). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. We generated this data package in support of the manuscript and research reproducibility. The background of this study is that the streambed itself has not been explicitly represented in watershed models, although the streambed characteristics are significantly different from those of its surrounding soil. We aim to answer the following questions: 1) How do streambed properties including hydraulic conductivity, thickness and resolution impact the groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes across the streambed? 2) Is an explicit representation of streambed important in watershed modeling?; 3) Is a high-resolution streambed needed for watershed simulations?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗