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At least 271 records · Page 15

Model Error Estimation for the CPTEC Eta Model

Statistical data assimilation systems require the specification of forecast and observation error statistics. Forecast error is due to model imperfections and differences between the initial condition and the actual state of the atmosphere. Practical four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) methods try to fit the forecast state to the observations and assume that the model error is negligible. Here with a number of simplifying assumption, a framework is developed for isolating the model error given the forecast error at two lead-times. Two definitions are proposed for the Talagrand ratio tau, the fraction of the forecast error due to model error rather than initial condition error. Data from the CPTEC Eta Model running operationally over South America are used to calculate forecast error statistics and lower bounds for tau.

Tippett, Michael K.↗

The effect of tidal fields on the shapes and kinematics of dark halos

We have carried out a series of N-body simulations to investigate the effect of tidal shear on the structure and kinematics of dark halos. We simulate the collapse of density perturbations using a tree code as described in Dubinski & Carlberg (1991). Density peaks are selected from a random realization of a CDM density field and used as the initial conditions for N-body simulations. We use an experimental approach to examine the effects of tidal shear on collapse. The cosmological tidal field is treated as an external time dependent potential whose strength and orientation can be varied freely. We examine the effects of the tidal field with two experiments. In the first experiment, we simulate a sample of 14 dark halos from the collapse of density peaks in the presence of a 1(sigma) tidal field. In the second experiment, we use the same initial conditions though the tidal field is turned off allowing an experimental control for comparison to highlight the influence of tidal shear on the development of the structure and kinematics of the dark halos.

Dubinski, John↗

Intake flow modeling in a four stroke diesel using KIVA3

Intake flow for a dual intake valved diesel engine is modeled using moving valves and realistic geometries. The objectives are to obtain accurate initial conditions for combustion calculations and to provide a tool for studying intake processes. Global simulation parameters are compared with experimental results and show good agreement. The intake process shows a 30 percent difference in mass flows and average swirl in opposite directions across the two intake valves. The effect of the intake process on the flow field at the end of compression is examined. Modeling the intake flow results in swirl and turbulence characteristics that are quite different from those obtained by conventional methods in which compression stroke initial conditions are assumed.

Hessel, R. P.↗

Calculations of the effects of angular momentum on the early evolution of Jupiter

Early phases in the evolutionary development of a rotating cloud of gas and dust are investigated to determine whether physically reasonable initial conditions are likely to produce a planet-satellite system with the values of specific orbital angular momentum currently observed for Jupiter and its inner satellites. Spherically symmetric computations of Jupiter's evolutionary history are reviewed, and transport of angular momentum is considered along with evolutionary sequences of individual differentially rotating models with decreasing values of equatorial radius. The problem of accounting for the present specific orbital angular momenta of Jupiter and its regular satellites is examined qualitatively, and a range of possible angular-momentum distributions in an initially tidally unstable cloud is assessed. The results show that particular physically plausible angular-momentum distributions, which could either be established as initial conditions or be caused by angular-momentum transport, will lead to favorable situations for the formation of a central planet and a surrounding rotating cloud with specific angular momentum comparable to that of the regular satellites.

Bodenheimer, P.↗

The effects of rotational flow, viscosity, thickness, and shape on transonic flutter dip phenomena

The transonic flutter dip phenomena on thin airfoils, which are employed for propfan blades, is investigated using an integrated Euler/Navier-Stokes code and a two degrees of freedom typical section structural model. As a part of the code validation, the flutter characteristics of the NACA 64A010 airfoil are also investigated. In addition, the effects of artificial dissipation models, rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, viscosity, airfoil thickness and shape on flutter are investigated. The results obtained with a Euler code for the NACA 64A010 airfoil are in reasonable agreement with published results obtained by using transonic small disturbance and Euler codes. The two artificial dissipation models, one based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a common factor and the other based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a spectral radius, predicted the same flutter speeds except in the recovery region for the case studied. The effects of rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, and viscosity for the Reynold's number studied seem to be negligible or small on the minima of the flutter dip.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

The effects of rotational flow, viscosity, thickness, and shape on transonic flutter dip phenomena

The transonic flutter dip phenomena on thin airfoils, which are employed for propfan blades, is investigated using an integrated Euler/Navier-Stokes code and a two degrees of freedom typical section structural model. As a part of the code validation, the flutter characteristics of the NACA 64A010 airfoil are also investigated. In addition, the effects of artificial dissipation models, rotational flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, viscosity, airfoil thickness, and shape on flutter are investigated. The results obtained with an Euler code for the NACA 64A010 airfoil are in reasonable agreement with published results obtained by using transonic small disturbance and Euler codes. The two artifical dissipation models, one based on the local pressure gradient scaled by a common factor and the other based on the local presure gradient scaled by a spectral radius, predicted the same flutter speeds except in the recovery region for the case studied. The effects of rotation flow, initial conditions, mean angle of attack, and viscosity for the Reynolds number studied seem to be negligible or small on the minima of the flutter dip.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

Cyclogenesis in a saturated environment

The dynamics of baroclinic wave growth in a saturated environment is examined using linear and nonlinear models employing a parameterization of latent heat release that assumes all rising air is saturated, and saturation equivalent potential temperature is conserved on ascent. Piecewise potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics are used to interpret the results. When the stability to vertical displacements in saturated air is allowed to increase with height, as it must in an atmosphere with a constant, positive lapse rate of potential temperature, the growth rates of the most unstable modes of the Eady problem grow only marginally faster than the modes of the dry problem. The vertical variation of moist static stability produces a gradient of moist potential vorticity in the rising air, eliminating the short-wave cutoff present in the dry Eady problem. The destabilization of the short waves is shown to be associated with the interaction between surface potential temperature anomalies and diabatically generated lower-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies. Nonlinear primitive equation simulations, starting from normal-mode initial conditions, show that while the dry wave grows at nearly the linear growth rate until maximum amplitude is reached, the moist wave grows significantly faster than the linear growth rate at finite amplitude. This enhanced growth is associated with the rapid amplification of a mesoscale PV anomaly generated by latent heat release at the warm front. The rapid amplification of the surface cyclone results from the superposition of the circulation associated with this misoscale PV anomaly upon the circulation associated with the surface and upper boundary potential temperature anomalies. Additional integrations with finite-amplitude initial conditions more typical of atmospheric conditions exhibit similar behavior. It is suggested that many of the rapid cyclogenesis events that occur as upper-troposheric PV anomalies cross the east coasts of continents may arise from the rapid generation of PV anomalies by condensational heating in the moist maritime lower troposphere.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗

Magnetic Control of Concentration Gradient in Microgravity

A report describes a technique for rapidly establishing a fluid-concentration gradient that can serve as an initial condition for an experiment on solutal instabilities associated with crystal growth in microgravity. The technique involves exploitation of the slight attractive or repulsive forces exerted on most fluids by a magnetic-field gradient. Although small, these forces can dominate in microgravity and therefore can be used to hold fluids in position in preparation for an experiment. The magnetic field is applied to a test cell, while a fluid mixture containing a concentration gradient is prepared by introducing an undiluted solution into a diluting solution in a mixing chamber. The test cell is then filled with the fluid mixture. Given the magnetic susceptibilities of the undiluted and diluting solutions, the magnetic-field gradient must be large enough that the magnetic force exceeds both (1) forces associated with the flow of the fluid mixture during filling of the test cell and (2) forces imposed by any residual gravitation and fluctuations thereof. Once the test cell has been filled with the fluid mixture, the magnetic field is switched off so that the experiment can proceed, starting from the proper initial conditions.

Leslie, Fred↗

Model study of atmospheric transport using carbon 14 and strontium 90 as inert tracers

The observed excess carbon 14 in the atmosphere from 1963 to 1970 provides unique, but limited, data up to an altitude of about 35 km for testing the air motions calculated by 11 multidimensional atmospheric models. Strontium 90 measurements in the atmosphere from 1964 to mid-1967 provide data that have more latitude coverage than those of carbon 14 and are useful for testing combined models of air motions and aerosol settling. Model calculations for carbon 14 begin at October 1963, 9 months after the conclusion of the nuclear bomb tests; the initial conditions for the calculations are derived by three methods, each of which agrees fairly well with measured carbon 14 in October 1963 and each of which has widely different values in regions of the stratosphere where there were no carbon 14 measurements. The model results are compared to the stratospheric measurements, not as if the observed data were absolute standards, but in an effort to obtain new insight about the models and about the atmosphere. The measured carbon 14 vertical profiles at 31 deg N are qualitatively different from all of the models; the measured vertical profiles show a maximum mixing ratio in the altitude range of 20 to 25 km from October 1963 through July 1966, but all modeled profiles show mixing ratio maxima that increase in altitude from 20 km in October 1963 to greater than 40 km by April 1966. Both carbon 14 and strontium 90 data indicate that the models differ substantially among themselves with respect to stratosphere-troposphere exchange rate, but the modeled carbon 14 stratospheric residence times indicate that differences among the models are small with respect to transport rate between the middle stratosphere and the lower stratosphere. Strontium 90 data indicate that aerosol settling is important up to at least 35 km altitude. Relative to the measurements, about three quarters of the models transport carbon 14 from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere too rapidly, and all models with all three sets of initial conditions appear to sweep carbon 14 out of the midstratosphere (above 28 km) much more slowly than was observed from 1963 to 1970. Atmospheric dynamicists should seriously consider that the carbon 14 measurements imply with respect to advection in the midstratosphere.

Kinnison, D. E.↗

Small-Scale Dissipation in Binary-Species Transitional Mixing Layers

Motivated by large eddy simulation (LES) modeling of supercritical turbulent flows, transitional states of databases obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of binary-species supercritical temporal mixing layers were examined to understand the subgrid-scale dissipation, and its variation with filter size. Examination of the DSN-scale domain- averaged dissipation confirms previous findings that, out of the three modes of viscous, temperature and species-mass dissipation, the species-mass dissipation is the main contributor to the total dissipation. The results revealed that the percentage of species-mass by total dissipation is nearly invariant across species systems and initial conditions. This dominance of the species-mass dissipation is due to high-density-gradient magnitude (HDGM) regions populating the flow under the supercritical conditions of the simulations; such regions have also been observed in fully turbulent supercritical flows. The domain average being the result of both the local values and the extent of the HDGM regions, the expectations were that the response to filtering would vary with these flow characteristics. All filtering here is performed in the dissipation range of the Kolmogorov spectrum, at filter sizes from 4 to 16 times the DNS grid spacing. The small-scale (subgrid scale, SGS) dissipation was found by subtracting the filtered-field dissipation from the DNS-field dissipation. In contrast to the DNS dissipation, the SGS dissipation is not necessarily positive; negative values indicate backscatter. Backscatter was shown to be spatially widespread in all modes of dissipation and in the total dissipation (25 to 60 percent of the domain). The maximum magnitude of the negative subgrid- scale dissipation was as much as 17 percent of the maximum positive subgrid- scale dissipation, indicating that, not only is backscatter spatially widespread in these flows, but it is considerable in magnitude and cannot be ignored for the purposes of LES modeling. The Smagorinsky model, for example, is unsuited for modeling SGS fluxes in the LES because it cannot render backscatter. With increased filter size, there is only a modest decrease in the spatial extent of backscatter. The implication is that even at large LES grid spacing, the issue of backscatter and related SGS-flux modeling decisions are unavoidable. As a fraction of the total dissipation, the small-scale dissipation is between 10 and 30 percent of the total dissipation for a filter size that is four times the DNS grid spacing, with all OH cases bunched at 10 percent, and the HN cases spanning 24 30 percent. A scale similarity was found in that the domain-average proportion of each small-scale dissipation mode, with respect to the total small-scale dissipation, is very similar to equivalent results at the DNS scale. With increasing filter size, the proportion of the small-scale dissipation in the dissipation increases substantially, although not quite proportionally. When the filter size increases by four-fold, 52 percent for all OH runs, and 70 percent for HN runs, of the dissipation is contained in the subgrid-scale portion with virtually no dependence on the initial conditions of the DNS. The indications from the dissipation analysis are that modeling efforts in LES of thermodynamically supercritical flows should be focused primarily on mass-flux effects, with temperature and viscous effects being secondary. The analysis also reveals a physical justification for scale-similarity type models, although the suitability of these will need to be confirmed in a posteriori studies.

Bellan, Josette↗

Nonlinear binary-mode interactions in a developing mixing layer

This paper presents the formulation and results of two-wave interactions in a spatially developing shear layer, directed at understanding and interpreting the physical mechanisms that underlie the results of quantitative observation. The study confirms the existence of Kelly's (1967) mechanism that augments the growth of a subharmonic disturbance by extracting energy from its fundamental or vice versa. This mechanism is shown to be strongest in the region where the fundamental begins to return energy to the mean flow and the two wave modes are of comparable energy levels. It is found that the initial conditions and, especially, the initial phase angle between the two disturbances play a very significant role in the modal development and that of the shear layer itself. A doubling of the shear-layer thickness is shown to take place; the two successive plateaux in its growth are attributed to the peaking in the energy production rates of the fundamental and subharmonic fluctuations.

Nikitopoulos, D. E.↗

The Formation of Relativistic Jets from Kerr Black Holes

We have performed the first fully three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) simulation for Schwarzschild and Kerr black holes with a free falling corona and thin accretion disk. The initial simulation results with a Schwarzschild metric show that a jet is created as in the previous axisymmetric simulations with mirror symmetry at the equator. However, the time to form the jet is slightly longer than in the 2-D axisymmetric simulation. We expect that the dynamics of jet formation are modified due to the additional freedom in the azimuth dimension without axisymmetry with respect to the Z axis and reflection symmetry respect to the equatorial plane. The jet which is initially formed due to the twisted magnetic fields and shocks becomes a wind at the later time. The wind flows out with a much wider angle than the initial jet. The twisted magnetic fields at the earlier time were untwisted and less pinched. The accretion disk became thicker than the initial condition. Further simulations with initial perturbations will provide insights for accretion dynamics with instabilities such as magneto-rotational instability (MRI) and accretion-eject instability (AEI). These instabilities may contribute to variabilities observed in microquasars and AGN jets.

Nishikawa, K.-I.↗

Developing Antimatter Containment Technology: Modeling Charged Particle Oscillations in a Penning-Malmberg Trap

The NASA MSFC Propulsion Research Center (PRC) is conducting a research activity examining the storage of low energy antiprotons. The High Performance Antiproton Trap (HiPAT) is an electromagnetic system (Penning-Malmberg design) consisting of a 4 Tesla superconductor, a high voltage confinement electrode system, and an ultra high vacuum test section; designed with an ultimate goal of maintaining charged particles with a half-life of 18 days. Currently, this system is being experimentally evaluated using normal matter ions which are cheap to produce and relatively easy to handle and provide a good indication of overall trap behavior, with the exception of assessing annihilation losses. Computational particle-in-cell plasma modeling using the XOOPIC code is supplementing the experiments. Differing electrode voltage configurations are employed to contain charged particles, typically using flat, modified flat and harmonic potential wells. Ion cloud oscillation frequencies are obtained experimentally by amplification of signals induced on the electrodes by the particle motions. XOOPIC simulations show that for given electrode voltage configurations, the calculated charged particle oscillation frequencies are close to experimental measurements. As a two-dimensional axisymmetric code, XOOPIC cannot model azimuthal plasma variations, such as those induced by radio-frequency (RF) modulation of the central quadrupole electrode in experiments designed to enhance ion cloud containment. However, XOOPIC can model analytically varying electric potential boundary conditions and particle velocity initial conditions. Application of these conditions produces ion cloud axial and radial oscillation frequency modes of interest in achieving the goal of optimizing HiPAT for reliable containment of antiprotons.

Chakrabarti, S.↗

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

The influence of initial and surface boundary conditions on a model-generated January climatology

The influence on a model-generated January climate of various surface boundary conditions, as well as initial conditions, was studied by using the GISS coarse-mesh climate model. Four experiments - two with water planets, one with flat continents, and one with mountains - were used to investigate the effects of initial conditions, and the thermal and dynamical effects of the surface on the model generated-climate. However, climatological mean zonal-symmetric sea surface temperature is used in all four runs over the model oceans. Moreover, zero ground wetness and uniform ground albedo except for snow are used in the last experiments.

Wu, K. F.↗

The Impact of TRMM Data on Mesoscale Numerical Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

This paper assesses the impact of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) derived surface rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Super Typhoon Paka (1997). A series of mesoscale numerical simulations is conducted for simulating Super Typhoon Paka during its mature stage by using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 model with initial conditions derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global analyses with and without assimilation of the TMI surface rainfall data. Simulation results clearly demonstrate that the GEOS analysis with TMI rainfall data leads to a improved MM5 simulation of Typhoon Paka in terms of its intensity and kinematical and precipitation structures, since inclusion of the rainfall data into initial and boundary condition improves the storm environmental conditions (e.g., moisture and circulation). Further improvement can also be obtained by incorporating TMI data with mesoscale bogus vortex information into the initial conditions.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗