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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Fine‐Resolution Urban Heat Island Simulations to Soil Moisture Parameterization

ABSTRACT Urban areas experience the impact of natural disasters, such as heatwaves and flash floods, disparately in different neighbourhoods across a city. The demand for precise urban hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological modelling to examine this disparity, and the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanisation, has thus surged. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has served such operational and research purposes for decades. Recent advancements in WRF, including enhanced numerical schemes and sophisticated urban atmospheric‐hydrological parameterizations, have empowered the simulation of urban geophysical processes at high resolution (~1 km), but even this resolution misses significant urban microclimate variability. This study applies the large‐eddy simulations (LES) mode within WRF, coupled with single‐layer urban canopy models (SLUCM), to enable even finer‐scale modelling (150 m) of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the Baltimore metropolitan area. We run nine scenarios to evaluate various methods of initializing soil moisture and various spinup lead times, and to assess the impact of WRF's Mosaic approach in depicting subgrid‐scale processes. We evaluate the scenarios by comparing the WRF simulated land surface temperature (LST) against Landsat LST and the WRF simulated hourly 2‐m air temperatures (AT) with observations from eight weather stations across the domain. Results underscore the paramount influence of the lead spinup time on the spatiotemporal distribution of simulated soil moisture, consequently shaping WRF's efficacy in predicting the UHI. Furthermore, interpolating soil moisture‐related parameters from the parent for child domain initialization yields a notable reduction in mean and root‐mean‐squared errors. This improvement was particularly evident in simulations with the longest spinup time, affirming the importance of carefully designing the initialization of soil moisture for improved urban temperature predictions.

Talebpour, Mahdad↗
DOE OSTI2021

Islands and Page curves in 4d from Type IIB

Variants of the black hole information paradox are studied in Type IIB string theory setups that realize four-dimensional gravity coupled to a bath. The setups are string theory versions of doubly-holographic Karch/Randall brane worlds, with black holes coupled to non-gravitating and gravitating baths. The 10d versions are based on fully backreacted solutions for configurations of D3, D5 and NS5 branes, and admit dual descriptions as N = 4 SYM on a half space and 3d $T$$^{σ}_{ρ}$ [SU(N)] SCFTs. Island contributions to the entanglement entropy of black hole radiation systems are identified through Ryu/Takayanagi surfaces and lead to Page curves. Analogs of the critical angles found in the Karch/Randall models are identified in 10d, as critical parameters in the brane configurations and dual field theories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Corners and islands in the S-matrix bootstrap of the open superstring

We bootstrap the Veneziano superstring amplitude in 10 dimensions from the bottom-up. Starting with the most general maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills EFT, we input information about the lowest-lying massive states, which we assume contribute via tree-level exchanges to the 4-point amplitude. We show the following: (1) if there is only a single state at the lowest mass, it must be a scalar. (2) Assuming a string-inspired gap between the mass of this scalar and any other massive states, the allowed region of Wilson coefficients has a new sharp corner where the Veneziano amplitude is located. (3) Upon fixing the next massive state to be a vector, the EFT bounds have a one-parameter family of corners; these would correspond to models with linear Regge trajectories of varying slopes, one of which is the open superstring. (4) When the ratio between the massive scalar coupling and the tr F 4 coefficient is fixed to its string value, the spin and mass of the second massive state is determined by the bootstrap and the Veneziano amplitude is isolated on a small island in parameter space. Finally, we compare with other recent bootstraps approaches, both the pion model and imposing Regge-inspired maximal spin constraints.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Islands in non-minimal dilaton gravity: exploring effective theories for black hole evaporation

We start from (3 + 1)-dimensional Einstein gravity with minimally coupled massless scalar matter, through spherical dimensional reduction, the matter theory is non-minimally coupled with the dilaton in (1 + 1)-dimensions. Despite its simplicity, constructing a self-consistent one-loop effective theory for this model remains a challenge, partially due to a Weyl-invariant ambiguity in the effective action. With a universal splitting property for the one-loop action, the ambiguity can be identified with the state-dependent part of the covariant quantum stress tensor. By introducing on-shell equivalent auxiliary fields to construct minimal candidates of Weyl-invariant terms, we derive a one-parameter family of one-loop actions with unique, regular, and physical stress tensors corresponding to the Boulware, Hartle-Hawking and Unruh states. We further study the back-reacted geometry and the corresponding quantum extremal islands that were inaccessible without a consistent one-loop theory. Along the way, we elaborate on the implications of our construction for the non-minimal dilaton gravity model.

2D Gravity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Splitting regions and shrinking islands from higher point constraints

We study constraints from higher-point amplitudes on 2 → 2 scattering in the context of effective field theory (EFT) using the perturbative numerical S-matrix bootstrap. Specifically, we investigate the class of weakly coupled EFTs with amplitudes that obey the hidden zero and split conditions that are known to hold both for Tr(Φ 3 ) theory and for certain string tree amplitudes, including at 4-point the beta function. Requiring the splitting condition for the 5-point amplitude not only fixes nearly all its contact terms, but it also imposes non-linear constraints among the 4-point EFT Wilson coefficients. When included in the bootstrap, the resulting allowed region consistent with positivity is no longer convex but is restricted to a smaller non-convex region — which has a sharp corner near the string beta function! Assuming the absence of an infinite spin tower at the mass gap, the allowed region bifurcates into a trivial region (with states only above a chosen cutoff) and an island that continues to shrink around the string as more constraints are included in the bootstrap. The numerics indicate that in the absence of single-mass infinite spin towers the string beta function is the unique 4-point amplitude compatible with hidden zero and the 5-point splitting constraints. The analysis provides a prototype example for how features of higher-point amplitudes constrain the bootstrap of 4-point amplitudes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pseudomonas atagosis sp. nov., and Pseudomonas akappagea sp. nov., New Soil Bacteria Isolated from Samples on the Volcanic Island Izu Oshima, Tokyo

During the exploration of microbial natural resources, two strains of Pseudomonas, PS14 T and PS24 T , were isolated from samples taken from Izu Oshima, a volcanic island located 120 km southwest of central Tokyo. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that PS14 T was most similar to Pseudomonas baetica a390T (99.6%) and Pseudomonas helmanticensis OHA11 T (99.5%), and that PS24T was most similar to Pseudomonas qingdaonensis JJ3 T (98.8%) and Pseudomonas lutea OK2 T (98.7%). The major fatty acids of these two strains were C 16:0 and C 17:0 cyclo, summed feature 3 (C 16:1 ω6c and/or C 16:1 ω7c), and summed feature 8 (C18:1 ω7c and/or 18:1 ω6c). The phylogenetic analyses, DNA-DNA hybridization results and phenotypic traits indicated that PS14 T and PS24 T constitute two novel species, Pseudomonas atagosis sp. nov. (type strain PS14 T = CECT 9940 T , = LMG 31496 T ) and Pseudomonas akappagea sp. nov. (type strain PS24T = CECT 9941T, = LMG 31497T), respectively. The sequence data of the draft genomes of PS14 T and PS24 T were deposited in the GenBank database under accession numbers VXCA00000000 and VXCP00000000, respectively, and the sequence data of their 16S rRNA genes were deposited in the GenBank database under accession numbers MN396717 and MN382268, respectively.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-compact oxide-island growth induced by surface phase transition of the intermetallic NiAl during vacuum annealing

Crystal structure and composition are inter-dependent and decoupling their effects on surface reactivity is challenging. Using low-energy electron microscopy to spatially and temporally resolve the oxide film growth during the oxidation of NiAl(100), we differentiate such coupled effects by monitoring oxide growth while simultaneously fine-tuning the surface structure and composition during oxidation. We demonstrate that the oxidation of chemically ordered surfaces results in compact oxide island growth whereas non-compact oxide growth during the surface phase transition. By incorporating the surface phase transition induced chemical disordering into kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, we illustrate that the non-compact oxide growth is induced by the composition effect on the surface diffusion of oxygen, which can be described by the concept of “ant in the labyrinth”.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of urban extent discrepancy on the estimation of surface urban heat island intensity: A global-scale assessment in 892 cities

The estimation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) is crucial for studying the urban thermal environment, which is influenced not only by the commonly known definition of rural reference but also by the delineation of urban extent. Existing studies relies on various urban extent products defined in different ways, and the influence of urban extent discrepancy (UED) on SUHII estimates still remains unclear. In this study, we collected five open-source global urban extent products (GUEPs) for the year 2015 and corresponding daily land surface temperature (LST) observations (MYD11A1). Based on these products, we quantified the UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates by comparing absolute difference (ΔSUHII AD ) and relative difference (ΔSUHII RD ) in SUHII among GUEPs across 892 global cities. Additionally, we introduced an ISF-constrained (ISF–C) method to reduce SUHII differences among GUEPs by constraining the impervious surface fraction (ISF) within urban and rural extents. The results show that urban extents delineated by different GUEPs are not consistent, leading to their difference in ISF as well as LST, which in turn causes uncertainties in the estimated SUHII. On average for global cities, the annual daytime and nighttime ΔSUHII AD are 0.46 ± 0.02 °C (mean ± 95% confidence interval) and 0.24 ± 0.01 °C, with corresponding ΔSUHII RD of 42.0 ± 2.7% and 35.2 ± 2.3%, respectively. The UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates varies among climate zones, and the annual daytime ΔSUHII RD averaged for cities located in the arid zone reaches up to 60.8 ± 6.6%, which is nearly twice as high as that in other climate zones. More importantly, both ΔSUHII AD and ΔSUHII RD show lower values when using the ISF-C method, implying the effectiveness of this method. This study highlights the non-negligible impact of UED on the estimation of SUHII, which requires more attention due to the inconsistency of urban extents among current products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism at high excitation near 208 Pb

Metastable states with $T_{1/2}$ = 8(2) ms in 205Bi and $T_{1/2}$ = 0.22(2) ms in 204 Pb, with ≈ 8 MeV excitation energy and angular momentum ≥ 22 $\hbar$, have been established. These represent, by up to two orders of magnitude, the longest-lived nuclear states above an excitation energy of 7 MeV, ever identified in the nuclear chart. Additionally, the half-life of the 10.17 MeV state in 206 Bi has been determined to be 0.027(2) ms, the next highest value in this highly excited regime. These observations indicate the emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism arising from core-excited configurations at high excitation in the vicinity of the doubly closed-shell nucleus 208 Pb. These results are expected to provide discriminating tests of the effective interactions used in current large-scale shell-model calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic dispatch of offshore renewable energy resources for islanded communities with optimal storage sizing

Coastal or isolated microgrids depend on diesel generators and could benefit from renewable energy resources, especially offshore wind and wave energy. Integrating these resources into microgrids is complicated by their high intermittency, which requires optimal economic dispatch to effectively evaluate. This study considers three coastal or islanded sites, and uses mid-fidelity models of wind and wave energy technologies, and local demand data to solve the optimal economic dispatch problem. An optimal storage sizing method is developed that finds the smallest capacity of energy storage required to meet the microgrid load during each season. The storage capacity decreases by a factor of two at most when adding wave energy converters to a system. Adding wave energy converters to a farm decreases cost by about 30%. Furthermore, the required storage size varies by two to three times from summer to winter. Compared with the state-of-the-art approaches that often overlook realistic offshore renewable energy technology in microgrid economic dispatch and optimal storage sizing, the proposed solution introduced in this study allows for better site selection, microgrid design, converter selection, and storage sizing considerations for isolated microgrids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global urban heat island intensity dataset: Generation, comparison, and analysis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a phenomenon of local warming over urban areas, is the most well-known impact of urbanization on climate. Globally consistent estimates of the UHI intensity (UHII) are crucial for examining this phenomenon across time and space. However, publicly available UHII datasets are limited and have several constraints: (1) they are for clear-sky surface UHII, not all-sky surface UHII and canopy (air temperature) UHII; (2) the estimation methods often neglect anthropogenic disturbance, introducing uncertainties in the estimated UHII. To address these issues, this study proposes a new dynamic equal-area (DEA) method that can minimize the influence of various confounding factors on UHII estimates through a dynamic cyclic process. Utilizing the DEA method and leveraging various gridded temperature data, we develop a global-scale (>10,000 cities), long-term (over 20 years by month), and multi-faceted (clear-sky surface, all-sky surface, and canopy) UHII dataset. Further, based on these estimates, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the UHII and its trends in global cities. The UHII is found to be greater than zero in >80% of cities, with global annual average magnitudes around 1.0 °C (day) and 0.8 °C (night) for surface UHII, and close to 0.5 °C for canopy UHII. Furthermore, an interannual upward trend in UHII is observed in >60% of cities, with global annual average trends exceeding 0.1 °C/decade (day) and over 0.06 °C/decade (night) for surface UHII, and slightly surpassing 0.03 °C/decade for canopy UHII. Notably, there exists a positive correlation between the magnitude and trend of UHII, suggesting that cities with stronger UHII tend to experience faster growth in UHII. Additionally, discrepancies in UHII are found between different temperature data, stemming not only from distinctions in data types (surface or air temperature) but also from differences in data acquisition times (Terra or Aqua), weather conditions (clear-sky or all-sky), and processing methodologies (with or without gap filling). Overall, our proposed method, dataset, and analysis results have the potential to provide valuable insights for future urban climate studies. The UHII dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24821538.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO 2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach

The world is becoming increasingly urbanized. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policymakers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. We aimed at identifying European urban configuration types, based on the Local Climate Zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluating their association with motorized traffic flows, Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), CO 2 per capita emissions and age-standardized mortality. We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal–Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low-density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low-density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO 2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low-density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO 2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Application of ASP in Nuclear Engineering: Explaining the Three Mile Island Nuclear Accident Scenario

Abstract The paper describes an ongoing effort in developing a declarative system for supporting operators in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room. The focus is on two modules: diagnosis and explanation of events that happened in NPPs. We describe an Answer Set Programming (ASP) representation of an NPP, which consists of declarations of state variables, components, their connections, and rules encoding the plant behavior. We then show how the ASP program can be used to explain the series of events that occurred in the Three Mile Island, Unit 2 (TMI-2) NPP accident, the most severe accident in the USA nuclear power plant operating history. We also describe an explanation module aimed at addressing answers to questions such as “why an event occurs?” or “what should be done?” given the collected data.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Dimensional Molecular Charge Density Waves in Single-Layer-Thick Islands of a Dirac Fermion System

Charge density waves have been intensely studied in inorganic materials such as transition metal dichalcogenides however its counterpart in organic materials has yet to be explored in detail. Here we report the finding of a robust two dimensional charge density waves in molecular layers formed by α-(BEDT-TTF) 2 -I 3 on a Ag(111) surface. Low temperature scanning tunnelling microscopy images of a multi-layer thick α-(BEDT-TTF) 2 -I 3 on Ag(111) substrate reveal coexistence of 5a0 x 5a0 and √31 a0 x √31 a0 R9° charge density wave patterns commensurate with the underlying molecular lattice at 80 K. Both charge density wave patterns remain in nano-size molecular islands with just a single constituent molecular-layer thickness at 80 K and 5 K. Local tunneling spectroscopy measurements reveal the variation of the gap from 244 meV to 288 meV between the maximum and minimum charge density wave locations. Density functional theory calculations further confirm a vertical positioning of BEDT-TTF molecules in the molecular layer. While the observed charge density wave patterns are stable for the defect sites, they can be reversely switched for one molecular lattice site by means of inelastic tunnelling electron energy transfer with the electron energies exceeding 400 meV using a scanning tunneling microscope manipulation scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Abstract Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter b ‐value decreased as a function of total uplift. In the final six months before the eruption, a sequence of large ( M > 4) earthquakes regulated the state of stress on the fault, each being followed by 2–3 days of postseismic quiescence, and retarding the increase in seismicity rate. These earthquakes did not affect the overall uplift rate. Subsidence of 8.5 m accompanied the 2‐month eruption. On resumption of uplift, the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift was very low, and the b ‐value high, reflecting the relaxed stress state of the fault system. These observations show that crustal deformation becomes increasingly brittle at higher stress states, and supports theoretical models based on elastic‐brittle mechanics. They suggest that joint interpretation of deformation and seismicity is key for forecasting future eruptions in similar volcanic settings.

Bell, Andrew Forbes↗