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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Country-level land carbon sink and its causing components by the middle of the twenty-first century

Abstract Background Countries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify. Methods Using a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5. Results The top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively. Conclusion The model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling localized Noah-MP-Crop model with the WRF model improved dynamic crop growth simulation across Northeast China

Croplands play a critical role in regulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere. However, the interactions between cropland and climate are usually poorly represented due to a lack of detailed representation in crop types and field management. Here, we coupled the Noah-MP-Crop model with the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore and evaluate the crop growth dynamics in response to climate variations across Northeast China. The default parameters of the crop model were not exactly suitable for the agricultural ecosystems in Northeast China. The detailed cropland distribution, and crop phenology parameters including growing degree days (GDD) and planting (harvesting) date were first created using multi-source remote sensing products and reanalysis data, and was then successfully used to simulate the growth and yield for corn and soybean and associated energy exchanges. We also optimized and calibrated other crop parameters using the time-series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface products. The modified crop model substantially improved the simulation of crop growth, plant physiology, and biomass accumulation for both corn and soybean. Coupling the localized dynamic crop model into the WRF led to considerable decreases in the simulated mean-absolute-errors (MAEs) and biases of the leaf area index, evapotranspiration, and gross primary production compared with the MODIS observed values. Compared with the statistical yield from each province, the modified crop model underestimated the corn yield from 11.1% to 48.6%, whereas overestimated the soybean yield from 16.5% to 162.6%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Global Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Biogeochemical Cycles With Implicit and Explicit Representations of Soil Microbial Activity

Abstract Nutrient limitation is widespread in terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, representations of nitrogen (N) limitation in land models typically dampen rates of terrestrial carbon (C) accrual, compared with C‐only simulations. These previous findings, however, rely on soil biogeochemical models that implicitly represent microbial activity and physiology. Here we present results from a biogeochemical model testbed that allows us to investigate how an explicit versus implicit representation of soil microbial activity, as represented in the MIcrobial‐MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) and Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) soil biogeochemical models, respectively, influence plant productivity, and terrestrial C and N fluxes at initialization and over the historical period. When forced with common boundary conditions, larger soil C pools simulated by the MIMICS model reflect longer inferred soil organic matter (SOM) turnover times than those simulated by CASA. At steady state, terrestrial ecosystems experience greater N limitation when using the MIMICS‐CN model, which also increases the inferred SOM turnover time. Over the historical period, however, warming‐induced acceleration of SOM decomposition over high latitude ecosystems increases rates of N mineralization in MIMICS‐CN. This reduces N limitation and results in faster rates of vegetation C accrual. Moreover, as SOM stoichiometry is an emergent property of MIMICS‐CN, we highlight opportunities to deepen understanding of sources of persistent SOM and explore its potential sensitivity to environmental change. Our findings underscore the need to improve understanding and representation of plant and microbial resource allocation and competition in land models that represent coupled biogeochemical cycles under global change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CLM5 CAMELS Basins Ensemble

Land surface models such as Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5) are essential tools for simulating the behaviors of the terrestrial system. Despite the extensive application of CLM5, limited attention has been paid to the underlying uncertainties associated with its hydrologic parameters and the implications that these uncertainties have on water resources applications. To address this long-standing issue, we conduct a comprehensive hydrologic parameter uncertainty characterization (UC) of CLM5 over the hydroclimatic gradients of the Conterminous United States using five meteorological datasets. Key datasets produced from the UC experiment include a benchmark dataset of CLM5 default hydrological performance, parameter sensitivity identified for 28 hydrological metrics, and large ensemble outputs for hydrological predictions. The presented datasets can assist CLM5 calibration and to support broad applications such as evaluating vulnerabilities to droughts and floods. The dataset can be used to identify under what hydroclimate conditions parametric uncertainties demonstrate substantial effects on hydrological predictions and clarify where further investigations are needed to understand how land runoff uncertainties interact with other Earth system processes. Please refer to the included README.pdf for a description of the included files. Note that raw CLM5 model outputs for each forcing dataset are hosted on a Globus endpoint: https://app.globus.org/file-manager?destination_id=d22ef858-27b0-11ed-a910-fd3165076336.

Yan, Hongxiang↗
DOE OSTI2023

CLM5 CAMELS Basins Ensemble

Land surface models such as Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5) are essential tools for simulating the behaviors of the terrestrial system. Despite the extensive application of CLM5, limited attention has been paid to the underlying uncertainties associated with its hydrologic parameters and the implications that these uncertainties have on water resources applications. To address this long-standing issue, we conduct a comprehensive hydrologic parameter uncertainty characterization (UC) of CLM5 over the hydroclimatic gradients of the Conterminous United States using five meteorological datasets. Key datasets produced from the UC experiment include a benchmark dataset of CLM5 default hydrological performance, parameter sensitivity identified for 28 hydrological metrics, and large ensemble outputs for hydrological predictions. The presented datasets can assist CLM5 calibration and to support broad applications such as evaluating vulnerabilities to droughts and floods. The dataset can be used to identify under what hydroclimate conditions parametric uncertainties demonstrate substantial effects on hydrological predictions and clarify where further investigations are needed to understand how land runoff uncertainties interact with other Earth system processes. Please refer to the README.pdf for a description of the included files. Note that raw CLM5 model outputs for each forcing dataset are hosted on a Globus endpoint: https://app.globus.org/file-manager?destination_id=d22ef858-27b0-11ed-a910-fd3165076336.

Yan, Hongxiang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Present and Future Changes in Land‐Atmosphere Coupling of Water and Energy Over Extratropical Forest Regions

Abstract Couplings between land and the near surface atmosphere are modulated by interactions between soil conditions, vegetation dynamics, turbulent fluxes, and atmospheric properties. How the land‐atmosphere coupling responds to warming and elevated CO 2 are important for understanding the land surface carbon, energy, and water cycles. In this work, we documented this coupled land‐atmosphere network based on observations and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations over extratropical forest ecosystems. We employed a transfer entropy approach and novel network metrics to reveal patterns and strength of the land‐atmosphere coupling under historical conditions and a future high emission scenario (SSP585). We found that, in observations, the present‐day extratropical forest coupling network has high network connectivity (72%–88% of the targeted processes are coupled). E3SM reasonably captured the extratropical forest coupling network (modeled network connectivity was 81%–96%) and predicted that the coupling strength would significantly increase by 28% (±3%) under warming and elevated CO 2 conditions. Furthermore, E3SM factorial coupled experiments suggested that warming enhanced soil nitrogen mineralization favoring plant nitrogen uptake and vegetation growth were responsible for the strengthening future land‐atmosphere coupling. This work provides new metrics to analyze and document complex couplings for coupled earth system processes and highlights the important roles soil nutrient availability and biogeochemistry have on land‐atmosphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Clouds and Wind-Driven Surface Heat Exchanges over Land

Earth system model experiments show that increasing horizontal resolution fundamentally alters the simulated soil-moisture-precipitation feedback. Kilometer-scale simulations often produce weaker or even negative feedback compared to coarse-resolution models. A key difference of kilometer-scale models is that they resolve mesoscale secondary circulations, including boundary layer horizontal rolls and cellular structures, in addition to cold pools and downdrafts associated with convective precipitation. However, because the relevant processes occur on yet-smaller scales, these circulations are often poorly resolved. This project demonstrated that boundary layer secondary circulations significantly affect surface heat exchanges and wind gusts, and that current model parameterizations can misrepresent these processes at kilometer-scale resolution. Using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations and targeted experiments with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we identified physically unrealistic wind gust and surface flux responses to secondary circulations, diagnosed a systematic overestimation of wind shear in convective cold pools, and uncovered a multivariate relationship between land surface fluxes and the scales of updrafts that form shallow cumulus clouds. These findings provide observation-based recommendations for improving parameterizations of surface fluxes and wind gusts in high-resolution Earth system models, thereby reducing uncertainty in convective storm prediction and land-atmosphere feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How can biosphere models simulate enough vegetation biomass in the mountains of the western United States? Implications of meteorological forcing

Most carbon stocks and fluxes in the western United States are found in mountainous terrain, where observations and modeling are difficult. Terrestrial biosphere models generally underestimate above-ground biomass (AGB) over this region. In this report, we identify methods to reduce this underestimation by focusing upon 1) biases in meteorological datasets, 2) model representation of water stress, and 3) spatial resolution. We adopted the widely-used Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5) with six different meteorological datasets and found a 6-fold variation in simulated AGB across Utah/Colorado. Simulations underestimated AGB because of warm and dry biases within the meteorological datasets that reduced water availability and restricted plant growth. To eliminate the AGB underestimation we adopted a meteorological dataset designed for complex terrain (gridMET), combined with a representation of plant hydraulic stress (CLM 5.0). Conversely, changes in spatial resolution (meteorological variables and land surface description) had negligible impact on simulated AGB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem global model: Emissions, seasonality, and convective transport

Radon-222 (222Rn) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surface, and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate 222Rn using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with aims to improve our understanding of 222Rn emissions and surface concentration seasonality, and to characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, MERRA and GEOS-FP. We evaluate four available 222Rn emission scenarios by comparing model results with surface observations at 51 global surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with global surface observations (< 70% data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of wintertime surface 222Rn concentrations at Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of 222Rn emission fluxes (1 atom cm-2 s-1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global 222Rn emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and show its potential to improve simulated surface 222Rn concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this emission scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors to 222Rn emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface 222Rn concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional 222Rn emissions. We propose a conservative up-scaling factor of 1.2 for 222Rn emission fluxes in China, as also constrained by the observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (decay daughter of 222Rn). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with the observations in Europe and North America (>80% data within a factor of 2), and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70%). Further constraints on 222Rn emissions would require additional observations of surface 222Rn concentrations and emission fluxes in central U.S., Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed 222Rn vertical profiles during northern mid-latitude summertime and from two short-term airborne campaigns. While the simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of 222Rn concentrations in the lower troposphere (0-4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared to GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of 222Rn, which is partially compensated by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of 222Rn concentrations between the two simulations.

Zhang, Bo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Noah-Multiparameterization land-surface Model with Energy Research and Forecasting Model

The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model is a high-performance atmospheric model built on the AMReX adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework, enabling efficient simulations on heterogeneous computing platforms that combine multicore processors with hardware accelerators. To support land–atmosphere interactions within ERF’s AMR-based environment, a land-surface model must be capable of operating directly on hierarchically refined meshes. In this work, we present a methodology for coupling the Fortran-based Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land-surface model with ERF’s C++ codebase. Rather than rewriting Noah-MP, we construct a Fortran–C interoperability layer using CodeScribe, a tool that leverages large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of interface code. CodeScribe applies structured prompting techniques to generate bindings that support efficient data exchange and function calls between ERF and Noah-MP. The coupling framework also incorporates AMR-aware data handling strategies, allowing NoahMP to operate seamlessly within ERF’s hierarchical mesh structure. This work provides a structured approach for integrating legacy Fortran models into modern C++-based modeling systems using LLM-assisted code generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on storm propagation and hail characteristics

Changes in land surface and aerosol characteristics from urbanization can affect dynamic and microphysical properties of severe storms, thus affecting hazardous weather events resulting from such storms such as hail and tornado. We examine the joint and individual effects of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols of Kansas City on a severe convective storm observed during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, focusing on storm evolution, convective intensity, and hail characteristics. The simulations are carried out at the cloud-resolving scale (1 km) using a version of WRF-Chem in which the spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) is coupled with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). It is found that the urban land effect of Kansas City initiated a much stronger convective cell and the storm got further intensified when interacting with stronger turbulence induced by the urban land. The urban land effect also changed the storm path by diverting the storm toward the city mainly resulting from enhanced urban land-induced convergence in the urban area and around the urban-rural boundaries. The joint effect of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols enhances occurrences of both severe hail and significant severe hail by ~ 20% by enhancing hail formation and growth from riming. Overall the urban land effect on convective intensity and hail is relatively larger than the anthropogenic aerosol effect, but the joint effect is much notable than either of the individual effects, emphasizing the importance to consider both effects in evaluating urbanization effects.

Lin, Yun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence-Aided Wind Plant Optimization for Nationwide Evaluation of Land Use and Economic Benefits of Wake Steering

If clean energy pathways are to harness massive increases in wind power, innovations with broad geographic viability will be needed to support buildout in diverse locations. However, geodiversity in impact potential is seldom captured in technology assessment. Here we propose a scalable approach to plant-level optimization using artificial intelligence to evaluate land sparing and economic benefits of wake steering at more than 6,800 plausible onshore wind locations in the USA. This emerging controls strategy optimizes plant energy production by directing turbine wakes. On the basis of estimates from our artificial intelligence model trained on engineering wind flow simulations, co-optimizing plant layouts with wake steering can reduce land requirements by an average of 18% per plant (site-specific benefits range from 2% to 34%), subject to errors and uncertainties in the flow model, wind resource estimates, buildout scenario and geographic factors. According to model estimates, wake steering is predicted to increase power production during high-value (relatively low wind) periods, boosting the annual revenue of individual plants by up to US$3.7 million (equivalent to US$13,000 MW-1 yr-1) but producing negligible gains in some settings. Consideration of wake steering’s geographic potential reveals divergent nationwide prospects for improved economics and siting flexibility.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019

Fundamental to Earth’s climate, tropical rainfall marks a dominant annual cycle characterized by its amplitude and phase, representing the range between wet and dry seasons and their onset timing, respectively. Under global warming, previous studies revealed enhanced amplitude of rainfall annual cycle over ocean and delayed phase over land in the tropics, underpinned by solid theories. It is unclear however whether these changes have already emerged in the observational records. Here, we report a robust delay of 3.02 and 3.43 days over the northern tropical land and Sahel respectively during 1979-2018 based on five observation datasets. Furthermore, most of the delay is captured by multiple ensemble simulations driven by external forcings, with greenhouse gases (GHG) more important over the northern tropical land and anthropogenic aerosols (AER) more important over the Sahel. Both GHG and AER delay the annual cycle of regional precipitation similarly by producing a moister and more ocean-like atmosphere, thus increasing its lag in response to seasonal solar forcing. Our findings provide new evidence of the human footprints on Earth’s hydrological cycle at continental and regional scales. As GHG and AER continue to increase and decrease respectively, these seasonal delays will be further amplified in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The U.S. DOE ARM User Facility Establishes a New Site for Studies of Land–Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in the Southeastern United States

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has established a new site in the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in northern Alabama that will gather data on how clouds, the land surface, and aerosols interact at a hierarchy of scales important to understanding and simulating the Earth system. Starting its operations in October 2024, the BNF site provides a multi-year opportunity for scientists to unravel complex land-atmosphere interactions. A suite of ground-based sensors, elevated tower-based instrumentation, and aerial facilities will enable scientists to investigate those interactions from within the canopy to the clouds. The Southeastern United States was recommended by the DOE ARM and its collaborators in the broader community as an important region to address their common scientific questions given the region’s abundant surface-forced convective clouds and mesoscale convective systems that pose ongoing challenges in Earth system models. The region is also home to significant terrain complexity and land-use heterogeneity that will unleash new understanding of anthropogenic and biogenic aerosol processes, boundary-layer aerosol-cloud interactions, and the interactions between the terrestrial ecosystem and coupled aerosol-cloud-radiation processes.

Aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models–Advances, Applications, and Challenges

Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the exchange of mass and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere, with a key focus on modeling natural greenhouse gas feedbacks. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. There are growing concerns over the rapidly increasing methane concentration in the atmosphere, underscoring the need for accurate global modeling of its emissions using ESMs. Of the multitude of sources of methane globally, wetlands are the largest natural emitters for methane, leading to significant efforts targeting their representation in ESMs with a special focus on their methane emissions. In this review, we first provide a historical overview of including wetland–methane components in ESMs and how methane modeling approaches have evolved over time. Second, we discuss recent modeling advancements that show promise for improvements in methane emissions predictions, namely the coupling of surface and atmospheric modules of ESMs, the representation of microtopography and transport mechanisms, the resolution of microbial processes at different spatial–temporal scales, and the improved mapping of wetland area extent across the different wetland types. Third, we shed light on the different challenges hindering accurate estimations of wetland–methane emissions, as shown by the consistent discrepancy between bottom–up and top–down models' predictions. Finally, we emphasize that more detailed representation of biogeochemistry and dynamic hydrology while resolving the within–wetland vegetation heterogeneity should improve model predictions, especially when coupled with expanding ground–based measurement networks and high–resolution remote sensing mapping of methane–relevant variables, such as water elevation, water table depth, and methane concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗